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It feels like an unusual situation for me after fighting the Markets for most of the last year and getting my butt kicked - but finally I have removed all Index Shorts and I am fully Long on the Markets. In the very short term we might get some wiggles but I see the recent Breakout to All Time Highs on the US Major Indexes as extremely Bullish Price behaviour and the FTSE100 looks to me like it has Broken out and then eased back a bit to do a ‘confirmation’ before most likely starting to move up again - I will demonstrate all this on the Charts in due course.
Needless to say with all the troubles of the World this strength in Markets seems utterly daft but if we take a calm view of things from a high level the simple crux of the matter seems to be that Interest Rates are still extremely low around the Globe and Economic Growth looks decent, if not stunning, across all Western Economies and Trump’s Policies look likely to give the US Economy a boost - and this is the dominant World Economy.
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My mate Phil Sloan has very kindly contributed the Guest Blog underneath to explain in simple terms to us all the Ins and Outs of Peer-to-Peer stuff. As he says in the text, he was looking for alternative forms of Income with Bonds and suchlike being such poor yielders and this drove him to do a huge amount of digging into P2P and we can now benefit from his endeavours.
If you have been following me on Twitter and partaking of the Website for some time you will know that I am pretty cautious on the whole P2P ‘thing’ with my main reservation being that most of the Providers sprung up after the 2008 Credit Crunch and we are yet to see how they will behave in a Recession and/or tougher times (having said that, I have just learnt from Phil‘s text that Zopa actually kicked off in 2005). For this reason, I would take the view that it is best to stick to the more well-known, established, names and in-depth research and investigation is essential. Of course it makes good sense also to limit exposure to this area and probably any more than 15-20% or so of a Portfolio might be taking on quite a bit of Risk - at least until you’re used to how it all works and after having more experience of how these things work over the business cycle. Phil has a good section on the Risk side of things and spreading things across Platforms etc.
Dunno what it’s like where you are but Windsor is positively arctic today - I hate cold and I’m desperate for the Winter to relent and let’s get on with the nice bits of the year !! On that matter we are already pushing towards the back end of January and after so much strength in the Markets we had a bit of a pause last week and it will be interesting to see if Markets do ease back more or if the incredible upwards momentum can continue.
As I have mentioned many times I see the Elections around Europe as being the big risks facing us in 2017 of a downwards variety but in terms of what can keep the Rally going there is clearly a lot of belief that the Trump Jump will continue as his policies energise the US Economy. I see this as a very interesting experiment because I have long felt that Western Economies were stifled by over-regulation and his intention to only bring in a new regulation if 2 other regulations are removed is the kind of thing I suspect would really help European Economies in particular to regain some vitality and dynamism. Of course the main negative impact of over-regulation is the entrenching of Big Businesses and the smothering of new Business ideas that struggle to get traction.
Unlike last year after a pretty strong performance, this year I have to write the ‘Scores on the Doors’ with a heavy heart…..
2016 was awful for me - as I have written a lot over recent months, I have not really enjoyed my Investing over the last year and it became an absolute chore - the simple reason being that I never seemed to get ahead of the game and my Accounts were negative almost from the off and never turned into Positive territory. In normal years, my Portfolio soon gets into the Money and tends to build on that with various fluctuations throughout the year.
Well, Markets continue their powerful run, particularly the FTSE100. I can’t help feeling that this is all a bit too easy and some sort of Pullback could come at any moment - I am not expecting a major collapse or anything dramatic but it does seem a normal and healthy drop is needed to unwind some ‘heat’.
In simple terms as an Investor I really want to be ‘Buying Low and Selling High’ and apart from odd Stock-specific situations, I would be very wary buying Stocks at the moment - Traders of course will have a very different view to this and will no doubt be leaping into the Momentum Trades with considerable glee - however, Trends always end (or at least ease back) and this of course will catch out any Trader who does not have proper Risk Management Controls in place.
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
This morning I bought more GoCompare.com GOCO because I totally adore that Opera Singer on the TV Ads. Actually, you might be surprised to hear that is not why I bought more GOCO - the truth is I am far more besotted by the Meerkats. I paid the princely sum of 76.5p per Share and picked up roughly another 1% of my Portfolio Value - I already had a ridiculously small amount after they were ‘spun-out’ from my Esure ESUR Share Holding - but I reckon I only had perhaps 0.5% of my Portfolio Value in them. Yesterday GOCO put out a nicely positive Trading Update (which you can read at the link further down below) and following this they jumped 12% on the day which is obviously a sizeable move. As ever, I dislike making snap decisions about Buying or Selling during the Trading Day and I kept patient and waited until after the Markets were closed to coldly look at the situation and decide whether or not to buy more.
One Week into 2017 and Markets continue to keep charging up - the Bulls seem to be firmly in control and with recent Breakouts to All Time Highs on so many Major Indexes it seems like 2017 is set for a decent Year. In the very Short Term it strikes me that Markets are Toppy both in Valuation terms but also on the Technical side - we have not had a decent Correction for some time and this is pretty unusual. It is not like there are no problems in the World !!
In addition, we need to ask the question “who is left to buy?” - the run up has been so strong for so long that it seems highly likely most Buyers have got their Cash in by now - at some point the Eager Buyers just dry up.
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
Earlier today I bought more Glencore GLEN at 285p via a Spreadbet - I already hold quite a few and felt a need to add to my collection. The thinking behind this was as follows (note this is only high level stuff and not comprehensive or particularly detailed):
Finally 2016 is over - I am so glad to see the rump of that one disappear into the mist of history. The Markets are closed tomorrow for a Bank Holiday in the UK but I wanted to have a look at the Charts to see how they shape up as we move into 2017 - my hunch is that Markets are rolling over and this certainly seems to be the case in the US and for the European Indexes. The FTSE100 looks a bit better but it is probably over-extended in the Short Term and with the Pound perhaps about to recover a bit and Oil going sideways maybe, the FTSE100 might come under some pressure.
Fundamentally we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers on Friday which usually gives some excitement for Friday Lunchtime and from a slightly larger timeframe we have President Trump’s Inauguration on the 20th January which could cause some wobbles. |
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