I’ve been meaning to write this hopefully fairly short Blog for a while but I keep getting distracted onto other things and we actually discussed this on a recent TPI Podcast so I wasn’t feeling a huge need to get it written. Having said that, we didn’t go into a comprehensive coverage of the issues and there is always a sense I have that I should try to cover as many topics as I can within my Blog Archive, so that WD Readers can revisit it in the future if they want to know about something. Maybe new Readers might find it useful also as the whole WD thing should really be to help Newbies as its main Sultana d’Etre (should that be ‘Raisin’?).
The essence of the ‘problem’ with my Income Portfolio is that my original theory behind it was to generate an Income Stream from the Dividends that was at least 5% a year based on the starting position each year. Apart from other aspects such as low activity and low risk and the diversification benefits, part of my thinking was that at some point in time in the future, I might have grown the Income Portfolio enough so that it would be throwing off Dividends that might amount to maybe £6,000 a year or so and that with other Income sources I have, I could get to a position where my Yearly Spending needs on food and rent and stuff are covered without me having to sell any Shares or make any money on Spreadbets etc. It is simply easier to just take Dividend Cash out of an Account than to have to think about which Shares to sell and all the timing issues and suchlike.
I am sure I have mentioned a few times before how I really struggle with this idea of ‘Growth Stocks’ and ‘Value Stocks’ and my whole beef is really around the idea that a Growth Stock doesn’t need to encompass the concept of Value and that Value Stocks really seems to be lazily used to describe Stocks with a large Dividend Yield. Of course the idea that all Stocks with chunky Yields represent value is silly because they could just as easily be flagging a big problem and actually be a ‘Value Trap’.
‘Value Trap, utter Cr*p.’
I was thinking that had a bit of a rhyme to it and then I remembered a joke from the comedian Tony Hawks (he’s on Radio 4 a bit but most people probably won’t know him – apart from the book ‘Round Ireland with a Fridge’ which is very good), where he talks about when he had a minor hit record as ‘Morris Major & the Minors’ probably in the late 1980s and it was called ‘Stutter Rap’. Anyway, he was on about reviews it had got and some wag in a Music Paper of the time had the written the headline; ‘Stutter Rap, Utter Cr*p’.
I first wrote the text in the following Blog back in September 2019 and tweeted out that I had written it but that it would be ‘parked’ in my reserve of half completed Blogs until a time when I was under pressure of having too much on, and I could pick it up and release it.
Funny enough in light of a bit of a Twitter Storm I have caused today, this actually seems highly appropriate although it is very much at the risk of chucking more petrol on the inferno !!
If you haven’t read Part 1 yet it is probably a good idea to do so and you can find it here:
When that Part finished I was going through the reasons why I am thinking that a proper full-on Bubble has become more likely, and here are a load more:
Technical ‘Breakouts’ on Major Indexes
If you keep up with my Weekly ‘Stocks & Markets’ Blogs which usually come out late on a Sunday Night, then you will probably have seen me mentioning the strength in the Indexes and how many have either recently ‘Broken-out’ to new All Time Highs (the US Markets) or they are very near such Break-outs and I expect to see them soon (German DAX, CAC40, FTSE100) and such Price Action is extremely Bullish and supportive of the start of a Bubble if that is how things are going to play out. It is pretty remarkable that after 11 years of the Longest Bull Market ever, we still have such strength and demand for Stocks.
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