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Trades

All my Buys and Sells are indicated firstly by Tweets just after they occur, and I will update this page and the 'Portfolios' page accordingly, most likely later that same day. Any trades will be entered into the 'Changes List' on my Homepage just after I update these pages.

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13/11/2024 GIT GEARED INDEX TRACKER - Closed the £1 a Point Short I had running on the FTSE100 at 8035, taking a loss of £180, equivalent to a bit under 3% of the GIT starting value, although in reality the loss is higher when you allow for the cost of interest and the paying of dividends (on Short spreadbets you pay the dividend, whereas on Long spreadbets you receive the dividends). The FTSE100 has had quite a drop following the Trump election win etc., but now it is at RSI 32 on the Daily (not quite at the RSI 30 Oversold level) and today it did a 'Long Tails Doji' candle, which often marks a Turning Point from which the FTSE100 could move up. It might be best to wait and see what happens, but I was eager to close out the Short and get the GIT back to 100% Long exposure, ready for what will hopefully be a decent December, as so often happens. I may have gone early, but I decided that there is plenty of Cash Buffer to soak up any further FTSE100 downside from here.
25/10/2024 Closed half of the S&P500 Short spreadbet I have at 5859. I have had this position all 2024 and I had expected a few opportunities to get out of the hedge, but any drops really didn't come to much. However, going into the US Presidential Election I did not want to have exposure one way or the other (long or short) and I now have just 7% of my Portfolio value hedged and I have hedged that short out with an S&P500 Long; it's far from an ideal situation but I think it is the most effective way to manage the positions. Eventually I want to turn my normal spreadbet account into a GIT type approach and use the S&P500; so in a way I am starting on that process but I need to run down the individual share spreadbets I have. This did not play out well and I took a hit equivalent to 1.3% of my total portfolio value and on top of that you have the financing charges and with shorts you pay the dividends (thankfully on the S&P500 the dividend is quite small). I have already published several TikTok videos on the @WheelieDealer2 account about the battles I have had with this short position; and the simple truth is that I should have closed it out many months ago once it started to go wrong. On the short spreadbet itself, I have taken a loss of 470% on the Margin Deposit - that's painful !!!
23/10/2024 Sold shares I had in i3 Energy i3E at 12.8p and closed the long spreadbet I had running at 12.8p also. i3E is in the process of a takeover by Gran Tierra Energy GTE and you could either take cash or a mix of GTE shares and a bit of cash. I am not interested in having exposure to an oil play in South America and I decided that dumping them was probably the right decision for me. I produced a TikTok video recently about small oil plays and how I wonder if they are more trouble than worth bothering with !! (I now just hold DEC and SQZ as well as the megacap SHEL). Sadly I paid a lot more for the shares and I lost a bit less than 60% on my invested money and on the spreadbet it is probably near a 245% Loss on the Capital Employed (the Margin Deposit); so it really didn't work out for me and the issues are really around the volatility of energy prices and the current penchant for punitive taxation schemes with all this Nut Zero silliness.
21/10/2024 Bought normal shares in Anpario ANP at 306p, to the size of about 1.5% of my Portfolio value. This is a stock I held many years ago when it was called Kiotech, and to a large extent it is still very much in the same mould. ANP does additives for animal feeds across a range of animal types, like Moos, Baas, Clucks and whatever noice fishes and prawns make !! I think they have about 36 different products and if you look on their website you can see sacks of the various different concoctions. The additives are targeted at things like alternatives to antibiotics (a hot topic for many years) and stuff to avoid animal diseases and to enhance biosecurity etc. Recent trading has been "in line" and it is worth noting they have a wide global spread which means that some difficulties in the US related to port strikes, have not become a problem across the full range of ANP activities. ANP has a strong balance sheet with a small Net Cash position and it recently did an acquisition of Bio-Vet in the US which is a nice bolt-on and a clear compliment to what ANP does already. SharePad is showing a forward P/E of 14.1, falling to 12.3 and a forward Dividend Yield of 3.6%, rising to 3.8% a year later; so it is an attractive rating and you get a very nice dividend payment on top. The Market Capitalisation is about £51m so it is quite small (it is AIM listed) and quite illiquid - so I have only bought in quite a small size (but I might buy more if the story continues to impress). On the Chart it is showing a nice steady Uptrend Channel over 1.5 years and with a fair wind, that could continue.
8/10/2024 Sold and Closed all my long positions (shares and spreadbets) on VTY Vistry, after a nasty surprise of a profit warning this morning. VTY owned up to cost estimation problems on a few development sites in its Southern Division and it may just be confined to this part, but in my experience when you get such issues, it often leads to more problems sneaking out of the woodwork. In line with my new policy of dumping stocks on the first profit warning (or the first sniff of trouble), I have taken the hit and got shot of all my exposure. What I find with things like this is that, at best, they might go sideways for a long time or more likely they will just continue to drift downwards, until some much more positive news comes out. This means holding on opens the risk of more capital erosion or perhaps just 'dead money' that does nothing and could be better deployed elsewhere in something that is on the rise. On top of this, VTY has a policy of just doing share buybacks at the moment - so it is not even going to deliver a dividend whilst shareholders wait around. I sold my shares at 951p and my long spreadbet positions also got closed at 951p. I don't know how these positions performed unfortunately; my VTY holdings came from an original load of positions in Galliford Try GFRD and that split into 2 bits. I sold the construction part (which is still listed) and with the money from that and the money freed up today, I am sure I at least got back my original investment. I have held this for a long time (maybe 10 years) but did pick up dividends for most of that time period - so it was probably an OK purchase but certainly nothing special.
2/10/2024 Closed (sold) the Long Spreadbets I had on IDS International Distribution Services (what used to be Royal Mail Group) at 342p after the Crasinsky takeover bid. 342p is a fair bit below the takeover price (I think that is about 365p) and normally I would wait to get nearer that price, but in the case of spreadbets, they have a financing charge that obviously mounts up as time goes on, and I suspect this could drag on well into 2025 due to the regulatory squabbles. Closing this position also frees up a bit of capital that was previously tied up as Margin Deposit. I still hold as normal shares in my Income Portfolio and I will hold these until the price improves as we get nearer to the completion of the takeover. I have held IDS for many, many years and it has been a very poor stock for me. The mistake as ever was really not to 'sell on the first profit warning' and if I had done that, it would have avoided a lot of monetary cost and psychological angst !! In terms of exposure (if the Spreadbets were normal shares) I have taken a hit of 39% but if you allow for the leverage of spreadbets, then the hit is very painful at around 200%. However, on the flipside, in the early days I got decent dividend payments but there would have been the drag of finance charges (which of course were lower when interest rates were very subdued). It is very disappointing about how this has played out and I can't help thinking The Czech Sphinx has got hold of a great company that has huge potential for profitable reform and the value of GLS (the european packages bit) is perhaps more than the takeover deal on its own. Shame, but that how's it goes and as I said before, I should have dumped it at the first sniff of trouble.
1/10/2024 Closed the Nasdaq100 (US Tech 100 on igIndex) Long spreadbet I had running at 19854, taking a loss equivalent to 0.7% of my Long Portfolio value. This was a 'hedge the hedge' trade that I had running to reduce the negative effect (from US markets rising) of the S&P500 Short spreadbet that I have had running for far too long. With October often being an awkward month and with Iran launching another missile attack on Israel, I decided that increasing the hedging of my portfolio was probably a sensible move. I was thinking of putting another Short on and then realised that I could have the same effect by reducing my 'hedge the hedge' positions; this will also reduce the finance costs overall. The result of all this is that I am now 7% hedged on my Portfolio and I have a Long S&P500 spreadbet running that is a perfect 'hedge the hedge' against the S&P500 Short spreadbet that has been difficult to manage all year. If 'hedge the hedge' confuses you, then look at my @WheelieDealer2 TikTok account where I have done some videos on it.
16/09/2024 Opened a Long Spreadbet in the S&P500 on the Dec24 contract at 5698, equivalent to about 7% of my total long exposure. By doing this I am in effect, with the Nasdaq Long I have running, hedging out my S&P500 Short which has been a pain in the butt all 2024 so far. It is far from ideal having to do this, but it seems the best way to manage the positions and still mean I have short cover for when markets do get properly wobbly again. It is my intention over time to move my 'normal' speadbet account to a GIT (Geared Index Tracker) type method, and this S&P500 Long might be a step in that direction. I need to run down my long spreadbets on normal shares and I also need to decide whether I want to use the S&P500 for the GIT permanent long, or to use the FTSE100.
12/09/2024 Closed the S&P500 Short Spreadbet that I opened back on 3rd September. I closed it at 5590 and this means I have taken a loss equivalent to less than 0.1% of my Total Portfolio Value. I put the Short on to increase my hedging with a concern that markets wanted to drop back and follow the common September pattern; but despite some weakness early in the month, markets seem to have found their footing again and I have decided to take the very small loss and lower my short exposure. I am now about 13% hedged and I would like to lower that at some point.
3/09/2024 Shorted the S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB (Daily Funded Bet) Spreadbet at 5524, equivalent to about 6.5% of my Long Exposure (not including the Income Portfolio or the GIT). This takes my total hedging via the S&P500 up to about 20% and also enables me to 'average up' on my hedges as I have been nursing an irritating S&P500 Short all this year; if this Autumn gives me an opportunity to get out of it, that would be very welcome. It is always a difficult call with the timing of when to hedge, but September and October are notoriously awkward months and it really looks like markets want to have a weak period. I was thinking of shorting the FTSE100 (I use it for the GIT so I am always looking at it) but after looking through the index charts, I decided that shorting more on something I had already would be simpler and I always view the S&P500 as a mixture of the 'slower' DOW and the 'fast' Nasdaq - and both those look like they could drop back a bit. 20% hedging is probably about right, but I might hedge a tiny bit more in coming days if I get the urge !! I ended up using a DFB for this one because igIndex was not offering a 3 month 'futures' contract that appealed to me - it might be because I was using my fone and I wasn't seeing all the contracts available. Hopefully the spreadbet won't need to run for too long, so the costs will be reasonable.
4/08/2024 About 2 weeks ago, FireAngel FA. was delisted from the stockmarket, following a takeover. This finally removes a 'problem' from my portfolio which has been a running sore for many, many years. It is of course a disappointing outcome and I have probably lost about 99% on this 'investment'. However, looking on the bright side, it has been another step that has pushed me to amend the way I operate so that I now have rules to 'Sell on the first Profit Warning' and to run a Trailing Stoploss system, once a new Stock moves into a profitable situation. By bringing in these rule changes, I hope to avoid the sort of circumstance that I endured through FA., where I initially had a decent profit which I let disappear and the first Warning of trouble, was then followed by countless others. This removes another stock from my Portfolio and I definitely have Slots free now to buy more if I have sufficient amounts of cash available. I have done a video which is on the @WheelieDealer2 TikTok account that talks about my sorry saga with FA.
2/07/2024 Bought more Team17 TM17 Shares at 281p each; roughly 1% of my Portfolio Value, taking the total to around 3%. I have held TM17 for utterly ages and like the company a lot. Unfortunately despite having a golden period during the C19 Lockdown silliness, the aftermath has been a difficult period for gaming companies and this has been exacerbated by bloated cost bases and subdued demand. The most recent Update from TM17 suggests they are making changes and getting costs down; one thing to note is the use of outsourced studio time which is a new development. What really got me more excited about topping up on TM17 was the recent takeover bid for Keywords Studios KWS; this strongly suggests that there is value in the sector. TM17 clearly has value in its library of games and the degree of customer loyalty that such back-catalogue games enjoy. A clear threat comes from AI which could transform the need for human developers; although this is highly uncertain. The flipside is that AI could benefit TM17 in its ability to speed up development processes hugely. At the price I paid, SharePad is showing a forward P/E of 13.1 falling to 12.5 a year later - this is a very low rating by TM17's historical standards. On top of that, in the last set of Results, TM17 had £42.8m Cash and against a Mkt Cap of £411 that is a huge chunk and if stripped out of the P/E calculation, it makes TM17 look even better value. Last year TM17 put out a trading update in early August; I suspect we might see similar timing this year. I have done a video about why I bought more TM17 on the @WheelieDealer2 TikTok account.
25/06/2024 BOUGHT some normal shares in Big Yellow Group BYG at 1195p each, equivalent to about 2% of my Portfolio Value. I am of the view that there is a lot of value in the Commercial Property sector at the moment and although I hold several such plays in my Income Portfolio, I do not have anything in my Normal Portfolio, especially now LOK has been sold. So I wanted something in that sector and after considering a lot of options, I decided that the Self-Storage subsector is still very interesting and it is one where I have done well in the past (I held Safestore SAFE many years ago as well). On this basis, BYG was the obvious play to replace LOK, although I did think about SAFE again. Anyway, the big driver for me on BYG was that historically I always remember it having a relatively low Dividend Yield; around 3% is what I would call "normal" (in fact, if you look at the history on SharePad under the 'Ratios' tab, you will see this precisely borne out). However, at the price I paid, SharePad is forecasting a forward yield of 3.9% rising to 4.1%. Even if this yield was to stay the same, the long term track record of BYG in raising the dividend payment, would mean that the share price would have to increase. In addition, I suspect that if and when interest rates start to fall back, the dividend yield on BYG will reduce - also boosting the share price. BYG is the clear market leader for self-store in the UK and also trades under the Armadillo brand, after it bought these units in a takeover some time ago. It has been around 25 years and the history is excellent with a record of steady growth in storage buildings, with a focus around London and the South but they are now opening some units higher up the country. BYG has a pipeline of new stores to open and has a decent balance sheet with a mix of freehold and leasehold buildings. I have not put this in my Income Portfolio because I already have about 4 property plays in there, but I think it would work nicely as an Income stock.
25/06/2024 SOLD the remaining shares I held in Lok n' Store LOK at 1096p, to free up money to buy BYG (above). This one is going through the takeover process and I was hoping for a higher offer, but nothing has arrived and I have run out of patience. It has worked out pretty well with a gain of about 80% and I would have picked up a few dividends along the way as well.
6/06/2024 BOUGHT (OPENED) a Long Spreadbet on the Nasdaq 100 ('US Tech 100' on igIndex) at 19052 on the Jun2024 Contract (the only other choice is a DFB which tends to cost more. Ideally I go for the longest dated 3 month contract), equivalent to about 5.5% of my Total Long Portfolio Exposure (including Shares but not the Income Portfolio). This is rather complicated, but I have been fighting a Short Position I have on the S&P500 all of 2024 so far, and I managed to reduce it some weeks ago, but it is still about 12.5% of my Total Long Exposure. The S&P500 tends to track the Nasdaq very closely, so I figured that by doing a small Long on the Nasdaq 100, I could in effect 'hedge my hedge' !! It's messy but I am very sure there will be lots of opportunities to close the Short Position and either get back the paper loss or at least reduce the loss considerably. Fortunately the Short is quite small so it isn't too awkward to manage. Including the Normal Shares I have in Polar Capital Technology PCT, my exposure to US Tech is in effect now equivalent to the Short I have running - this should help me a lot, although of course the drawback is more interest expense. It is quite helpful that because igIndex wouldn't allow me to open another Long Spreadbet on AVAP (see below), this freed up the cash I had earmarked for the AVAP deposit, which I used on the Nasdaq 100 (it is just a 5% deposit margin requirement).
6/06/2024 Sold slightly more than half of the Lok 'N Store LOK shares I had at 1105p each. These are undergoing a takeover situation, and I was expecting a higher offer, but after a long wait there is no sign of it. I needed the cash to buy more AVAP as below, so I decided to just sell about half and that way if a higher offer does appear, I won't be too upset. I made about 80% profit but I am yet to run the spreadsheet for the precise numbers.
6/06/2024 Bought yet more Avation AVAP normal shares at 139p each; equivalent to about another 1% of Portfolio Exposure and now that takes me up to about 5.5% total. I tried to buy as a Long Spreadbet but igIndex won't let me open a new position in AVAP, although of course they will let me close the existing long position I have. To fund this I sold half my Lok 'N' Store position, which is subject to a takeover situation. If you look below, there is an entry for early May 2024 where I bought more AVAP, but since then we have had an "Ahead of expectations" Trading Update and the value of the ATR Rights to Purchase is much higher than previously announced. On this basis alone, the underlying value of the Stock is clearly much, much higher. If you look on the @WheelieDealer2 TikTok account, I did a video about AVAP some weeks ago. This is a high conviction position for me and I am definitely overweight compared to my normal size position for a small AIM stock.
4/06/2024 Bought about £2500 worth of PRS REIT PRSR for my Income Portfolio at 78.4p. With markets generally strong and dividends high, I wanted to make sure the cash I had sat in the account was being used. PRSR invests in Homes and has a completed portfolio of 5300 homes across the country, and more being built. An incoming Labour government might build a few more homes, but it is obvious that there won't be much control on population growth and house prices and rents will inevitably rise. I also hold Empiric Student Property ESP that plays this theme. SharePad is showing a forward Dividend Yield of 5.2% and this should rise to 5.3%. The dividend is fully covered by earnings, so this fits my Income Portfolio nicely and I think there could be decent capital upside over time.
29/05/2024 Sold the 170 Rights I had from the National Grid NG. Rights Issue at 175.7p each, generating £293 cash that I will be using soon to buy something else in my Income Portfolio. This means I now have about £5000 of NG. in the Portfolio (total value roughly £78,000) but if I had bought more shares at 675p each as per the Rights Offer, then I would have to find another £1147 and I do not want to increase my exposure/risk to NG., especially with a Labour Government likely to be here soon, and god only knows what kind of idiocy they will do regarding Energy Policy.
7/05/2024 Bought more Avation AVAP shares at 117p, taking my overall holding up to about 3.5% of my Total Portfolio Value. I have held this stock for perhaps as long as 10 years, and before that I held SkyWest which was the Australian airline that got taken over by Virgin Australia. AVAP has some of the same management and AVAP started as a Leasing business to SkyWest. AVAP grew over the years after SKYW was sold and just before C19 hit, it had a takeover bid at 400p a share, which of course fell through. AVAP obviously had a rough time during the pandemic and Virgin Australia going bust was just one airline that had problems to which they were leasing planes. AVAP had to recover the planes and to refurbish them, and then to lease to new customers or to sell them. This took quite a few years to sort out but it looks now like AVAP are back on track and all of their planes are now leased out (I think the fleet has about 35 planes) and they also announced last week that they were taking up their purchase options on 10 new ATR planes and that they also had obtained purchase rights to a further 24 ATR Planes - these rights alone have a sizeable value. Back in December the NAV per share was 256p - so even if that falls a bit, the discount to my buy price of 117p is still vast. On top of the C19 mess, AVAP has also suffered from the higher interest rate environment; as rates start to fall back, things should get easier for AVAP (both in terms of servicing the debt but also because lower Discount Rates would boost the NAV per share). If you go to the @WheelieDealer2 TikTok account, you should find a video I did about AVAP earlier this morning.
22/04/2024 CLOSED a third of the Short Spreadbets I had running on the S&P500 at 5008, tqking a small profit on the recent Short I placed, but a loss on another. Overall I lost an amount equivalent to 0.15% of my Portfolio Value (by exposure), which is no big deal. Like with the GIT trade below, I feel that the sell-off is easing now and things in the Middle East seem slightly better, so I am happy to reduce my hedges. I have been running a short position on the S&P500 for most of 2024 and it has been a pain in the bum. This has given me the opportunity to reduce this pain at a reasonable cost, and now I am down to 12% hedged, which is very manageable.
22/04/2024 GIT GEARED INDEX TRACKER - Closed one of the £1 a Point Short spreadbets I had running on the GIT FTSE100 at 8045, recognising a loss of £86, which is about 1% of the Starting Value of the GIT. This reduces the hedging from 40%, down to 20%. The FTSE100 was strong today and is nearly at the 8047 All Time High (ATH) - this is bullish behaviour and I think it is appropriate to be nicely long to take advantage. The 20% hedge I have left, is easy to manage and the fundamental global picture is ropey, although the Middle East does seem slightly calmer.
16/04/2024 GIT GEARED INDEX TRACKER - Shorted the FTSE100 at £1 a Point at 7854 via a DFB Spreadbet using the 'Force Open' button (if I did not use this button, then the Short would be netted off against my Permanent Long - which of course would totally defeat the point of the Permanent Long) and now the hedging is up to 40%, and I am happy with that level. Reasons as per the trades just below. Margin Deposit required was £392 (5% of the exposure).
15/04/2024 Shorted the S&P500 (SP500 on igIndex) at 5055 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to about 3% of my Long Exposure and now taking my SP500 hedging up to 18%. During the day we saw big falls in the US and it looks like fears around the Middle East and the usual "Sell in May" type pattern are putting pressure on stocks after a very strong run up at the start of 2024. I may short the S&P500 a little more but I am roughly happy with the hedging I have already.
15/04/2024 GIT GEARED INDEX TRACKER - Shorted the FTSE100 at 7959 via a DFB Spreadbet at £1 a Point, which means the GIT is now 20% hedged. I remembered to use the vital 'Force Open' button and the Margin Deposit required is £398 (5% of the Exposure). After the missile attack by Iran on Israel, I was expecting more of a market reaction, but of course the risk of escalation is very high and there would be an upwards impact on oil prices etc. I haven't gone crazy, but with a small hedge, I am insured a bit against nasty things happening. I will watch the situation carefully and may add to the hedge if things look like getting really smelly. This time of the year the markets are often wobbly, but if it wasn't for the events in the Middle East, I think the FTSE100 really wanted to go higher. However, if the markets shake off the events, then I am still £4 a Point Long so I will gain anyway.
2/04/2024 Sold the tiny rump of SuperDry SDRY Shares that I had in the WD30, at 14p. I am a bit confused as I thought I had a Long Spreadbet on them as well, but when I looked in my account that was not the case. Perhaps I closed the Spreadbet some time ago, but to be honest I have better things to do than to spend time digging through the records and figuring it out. Anyway, I took a crazy loss of about 99% on these Shares, after Julian Dunkerton announced that he was not going to mount a takeover, and it looks like there will be an issue of more shares and they will get delisted. Obviously this is a big disappointment (particularly because I was in a nice profit for some time) but it is an important learning lesson and as a result of screw-ups like this, I have introduced my new process of using Trailing Stoplosses, and I am in general trying to be more 'aggressive' and less forgiving when Companies I hold report Profit Warnings and suchlike. The other big lesson here is that my record on Fashion Retail is really not good; I got caught on French Connection FCCN a little while ago as well, and I might just be best advised to totally avoid the sector. On the positive side, it gets me nearer the WD30 and I will update the 'Portfolios' page accordingly. **STOP PRESS !!! ON UPDATING THE 'PORTFOLIOS' PAGE, I NOTICED THE ENTRY THERE SAYING THAT I CLOSED THE SDRY SPREADBET ON 25TH MARCH 2021**
28/03/2024 Bought more FEVR FeverTree Drinks shares at 1190p; roughly another1% of my total portfolio value, so I am now about 2.5% into them. I am very keen on FEVR and was even discussing them with a mate back at Xmas; but other things have taken my interest and I was waiting on the latest results to finally make my move. Before these results, I had some reservations but I am very happy with what they have laid out and, in particular, I like the fact that the US is now their largest region (not many years ago they had no exposure to the US); the distribution changes in Australia, Canada and German; and the new products such as Adult Soft Drinks, which have much potential. On top of this, FEVR realistically expect margins to improve as energy costs reduce and they are Number 1 premium mixer in all their markets. OK, the biggest drawback is the valuation. I have looked closely into this and considering the history of very high p/e ratings (as high as 80) and their Net Cash position, I am happy to move on them now. SharePad is showing forward P/E of 83.2 falling to 37.8 and for 2025 they are forecasting 29; so the rating should drop as the company grows and even if the rating was to stay the same, the share price would grow with the earnings (that is how the maths works as you apply a particular p/e rating to a higher EPS). In addition, there is expected to be a forward dividend yield of 1.4% rising to 1.5% - not huge, but certainly ok for a growth stock (and with their ability to create cash, maybe the odd Special Dividend is not unimaginable). On top of all this, I am keeping in mind the potential for a takeover; it reminds me of Hotel Chocolat in that it is a niche stock with strong environmental and sustainability credentials (even doing a can version now) and this could attract a mega drinks and beverages company. Risks are really around inflation rising again and energy prices being a problem; to a large extent most stocks have similar risks, but it seems we are moving out of tough economic times, rather than going into them, and reducing Interest Rates could mean higher p/e ratings become more common. Of course, Putin or a similar knobhead could mess up all our plans !!
20/03/2024 Closed (sold) half of the long spreadbet position I have on BAE Systems BA. at 1350p. I still have about 7% of my Portfolio in BA. and I hold them in my Income Portfolio as well. Consequently, with all the gains I was getting uncomfortable with such a large spreadbet exposure (remember spreadbets are geared), and I decided to lower my risk. I still like BA. a lot and with all the terrible global political events, it seems highly probably that defence spending in The West will rise in coming years and this will help all defence firms. SharePad has BA. on a fwd p/e of 19.8, falling to 17.7 a year after, and with a forward dividend yield of 2.4%, rising to 2.6%. This is obviously quite a high rating and the yield is no longer a big one, but as I mentioned, it seems that the demand for BA. products and services will stay strong. As a result, I expect BA. to rise more and the share price clearly has upwards momentum. I first bought this spreadbet position 7 years ago, and the 'raw' profit percentage on the price paid is 116%, but the ROCE (the return on the capital used for margin deposit) is 580%, but of course there were interest charges along the way. However, for most of that time I was getting a large dividend and interest rates were low, so I suspect the dividends more than covered those interest payments.
7/03/2024 Bought more XPS Pensions XPS at 243p, equivalent to just over 1% of my portfolio value, so I now have about 3% in XPS. They came out with a very good update in mid february, and in particular, the influx of new regulation for the pensions industry is driving demand for their services. Indeed, yesterday Jeremy Hunt did his damp-squid budget and contained in that were new rules about monitoring how Defined Benefit Pension funds are delivering for their customers. The shares have been in a nice Uptrend Channel for 1.5 years and they had dropped back after my initial buy, but recently have turned up again, and I think they are very near a breakout. At the price I paid SharePad has them on a forward p/e of 17.3 falling to 15, and a forward dividend yield of 3.8% rising to 4.3%; so with luck I should get capital upside over time and be picking up a fairly sizeable dividend payout.
7/03/2024 Takeover completed for Sopheon SPE and I have received the cash in my account. This generated a tiny profit of 8% on a holding period of nearly 3 years, but I guess with all the travails of the pandemic and recession etc., this is probably a faster exit than if the takeover had not occurred. I am disappointed with how this turned out because I had high hopes for SPE and its innovative software, and clearly SPE is worth more or the buyers wouldn't have been interested. It is out of my hands so there is no point dwelling on it, and I will be reinvesting the cash into another stock ASAP.
28/02/2024 Bought more Hilton Food Group HFG at 813p in my 'Normal' Portfolio, bringing my position up to about 3% of total portfolio value. There was an Update a few weeks ago and they are trading as expected, and they foresee leverage being reduced at the Full Year. I see HFG as nice and boring and the chart over the last 2 months seems to be doing a sideways consolidation move, hopefully as a prelude to an upside move. There is a sizeable gap on the Chart up to about 900p, so with luck it can whip swiftly through that. At the price I paid of 813p, SharePad has HFG on a forward p/e of 16 falling to 13.8 a year later. It also has a forward Dividend Yield of 3.8%, rising to 4.1% - so it is still an attractive payout. I did a short video about HFG on the @WheelieDealer2 TikTok account, when I bought my initial holding a few weeks ago.
16/2/2024 Sold Kin & Carta KCT normal shares at 127p and spreadbets at 126.95p (you always get a slightly worse price on spreadbets), because the takeover deal at 130p a share now looks a 'done deal' and rather than wait ages for the cash, I prefer to sell in the market and now I can look for something to roll the cash into. I will most likely be buying more of something I have already, as I still need to firmly get to the WD30 in my main portfolio. I am rather confused on the profit/loss situation. I have had positions in KCT since as early as 2014 and looking at my spreadsheets, I have completed many trades (both buys and sells) over that time and there were some nice profits banked, and likely some dividends as well. From what I can tell, I have lost about 0.6% on my Portfolio Value on the spreadbets but I have made around 0.4% on these shares. Over the years though, it looks like my 'relationship' with KCT has been quite profitable. KCT was previously St Ives SIV and it was a printing company that evolved into a marketing business. It got in trouble and of course the pandemic nonsense didn't help, and it became KCT. I am not too sad to see it go and it is always important to remember/appreciate that it is yearly portfolio returns that matter, not the returns on individual trades.
24/1/2024 Bought more normal shares in Hostelworld HSW at 147p; this takes my holding up to about 3% of my Total Portfolio Exposure. I have held HSW for a very long time and am heavily underwater; I haven't checked my spreadsheets but I suspect it is 7 years or something. They got off to a decent start and paid some nice dividends, but then they hit problems and then we had the pandemic nonsense so HSW really struggled during that period. Anyway, since that HSW seems to be very much on the recovery path and the recent Trading Update was "above the upper end of guidance" and they have a tiny bit of debt. HSW is in effect a Travel Agent for Hostels and I think it lists some small hotels as well. The significant change has come about because a few years ago they decided to invest big in Social Media and use the tool to encourage hostel visitors to communicate with one another through an APP that HSW created. It has been a huge success and is really making a difference as can be seen from the Trading Update. SharePad is showing HSW on a 2 year forward p/e ratio of 13.5 with a 2 year forward dividend yield of just 0.7%; however, HSW is very cash generative and I expect that dividend to increase quickly and in the past HSW has paid out Special Dividends. The obvious risks are around the global economy getting worse (a problem most stocks face) and the competitive backdrop; but HSW seems to be competing very well itself. Buying more of HSW is in line with my newly found strict discipline of trying to stick to just 30 stocks in my 'Normal ISA' and instead of buying something new, I have decided to buy more of something I already have.
18/1/2024 GIT - GEARED INDEX TRACKER - Closed the FTSE100 Short of £1 a Point I had running on the GIT at 7480, banking a profit of £209, which is 2.7% of the £7762 that is tied up as the Margin Deposit and the Cash Buffer when the system was opened for 2024 on January 1st. We have had quite a fast drop on the FTSE100 and today it has formed up a Bullish Harami 2-day Candle pattern. In addition, it is now at RSI 35 which is not yet oversold, but I notice the FTSE100 has turned up at this level many times in the recent past. In addition, US markets are pretty perky tonight and the European markets were up today - it seems likely I have taken most of the 'meat' out of the drop, even if I have closed out a little early. The profit banked will help towards offsetting the Interest Costs on the system for the year, as I have discussed on a few TikTok videos recently.
18/1/2024 Sold BGO Bango normal shares in my Normal ISA at 119p, taking a loss of 35% on the cash invested 4 years ago. BGO issued a Profit Warning this morning and in line with my new rule, I have decided to dump them. BGO has gone nowhere for some time and seems to not be great at meeting expectations and delivering what it says it will. I have run out of patience and decided to move on; the cash can be redeployed into something better I hope. I also closed a Long Spreadbet I had running on BGO at 116p, and this crystallised a loss of about 27% on the equivalent exposure if it was normal shares, and a loss of 110% on the Capital tied up as Deposit Margin. Overall it is disappointing but there is no point getting too stressed, irritated and emotional - out it goes !!!
9/1/2024 Bought more SUPR Supermarket REIT for my Income Portfolio at 86.1p per share. I bought about £2500 worth so now got around £6000, which is 8% of the Income Portfolio. I see SUPR as quite low risk and SharePad is forecasting a Dividend Yield of 7% for each of the next 2 years - so it is a juicy payment. In addition, there is a Quarterly Dividend of 1.515p which goes ExDiv on the 11th January (this Thursday), so I hope to have nabbed that. The story is as per my entry earlier for my initial buy - the chunky yield fits my Income Portfolio philosophy and as interest rates in general reduce, I expect the valuation of the underlying property assets to increase, and the discount to NAV to reduce as well. This should mean a decent amount of capital upside as well as a really nice dividend payout. SUPR is invested in Supermarket properties from the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury etc., and as such I consider it quite a safe investment.
3/1/2024 Shorted FTSE100 on the GIT (Geared Index Tracker) at 7689 via a DFB Spreadbet at £1 a Point, so it is now 20% hedged. On igIndex I had to go into the 'Settings' menu to find the 'Force Open' button which is an essential part of how the GIT System works. Previously on my tablet I could find the 'Force Open' button on the deal page. Same reasoning as per my S&P500 Shorts - markets have been toppy and look like pulling back a bit, which is very usual in January, especially after a strong run up in December, where markets have got very overbought.
3/1/2024 Shorted S&P500 a bit more via DFB Spreadbet at 4703, equivalent to about 6% of my Long Portfolio Exposure, so I am now 14% hedged. Reasons as per the entry below and today's price action suggests more pullback is likely.
2/1/2024 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 4744, equivalent to 8% of my Long Portfolio Exposure (as at 1st January 2024). We had a very strong rise in December and markets look overbought and they are showing signs of turning down. We often get weakness in early January but it tends not to be too severe; so I have kept my Short fairly small and if it goes against me I can manage the position and of course short more if that is required. The S&P500 is on an RSI of 70 which is still overbought and the RSI is falling. Today it did a Bearish MACD Cross which is quite a useful short-term signal. I also see the S&P500 as a hybrid of the Nasdaq and the DOW - in this case the Nasdaq looks like falling back but the DOW is still holding up well.
21/12/2023 Sold Hipgnosis Songs Fund SONG from my 'Normal ISA' at 69.8p, taking a loss of 36%, but as with the entry below, I have had a few dividends from them. Please see my reasoning below for why I have sold all my SONG holdings.
21/12/2023 Sold Hipgnosis Songs Fund SONG in my Income Portfolio at 69.9p, taking a loss of 43% - although I have had several decent dividends from it. Really disappointed with how this has played out, but the current situation is extremely messy with the company failing a 'Continuation Vote' and today we had an update where debt has risen, there is disagreement between the new board and the investment managers, there is risk of debt covenant breaches, there is no dividend, and we were told that the operative NAV could not be relied on - and if that wasn't enough, the new board are regularly discovering issues of a financial nature, and an example given was how a contract was poorly drafted and this has cost several £million. I have been thinking about dumping this for a while and have decided that I am spending too much time thinking about it and I have decided to take the hit and to move on and use the cash elsewhere in my Income Portfolio. I might add to a couple of stocks I already have or I might buy a fresh new stock as I now have a spare 'slot'. Another issue with SONG is that this awful situation could drag on for a long time, and all the while there are costs being run up and these will be reducing the value of whatever is left in the company. It is a shame as SONG owns some great catalogues, but the management here has clearly been pretty incompetent.
6/12/2023 Closed (sold) the Long Spreadbet Ihad running on the German DAX for 6 months, at 16676. This generated a paper profit equivalent to about 2.1% Profit on my Portfolio Value and it would have been a 43% return on the Margin Capital used, but unfortunately the lengthy holding period means that the finance charges (less the dividends) wipe out this profit. However, I am actually very pleased with this outcome. I bought the DAX Long when it looked like the DAX was breaking out to new All Time Highs (in which case it should run up) but it quickly dropped and then became a problem for me all summer and up to November, when the situation improved a lot. Because of the risks around the Middle East situation, I lacked the courage and conviction to average down on this position, so I am very pleased that just running with it has got me out of the problem at no cost. I did a TikTok video about this problem a few weeks ago, and in that I pointed out that buying on an elevated RSI reading was my big error; I must learn from this. Anyway, back to the current time, the reason I have closed my DAX long is because the RSI is extremely high and well overbought, and this tends to be a great indication that a pullback is coming. It doesn't matter too much to me if it continues to go up; I am pretty much fully invested with my stocks and am therefore exposed to rising markets anyway. Next up I will be looking to place an Index Long Spreadbet to play the Santa Rally around 14th December or so.
5/12/2023 Bought HFG Hilton Food Group shares at 741p, equivalent to about 1.5% of my total portfolio value; and I expect to add more at some point. HFG is a meat/poultry/seafood packing business and is quite global in what it does, with operations in Europe, Asia, Australia/New Zealand and with a recent deal signed in Canada with Walmart. They did a foray into vegetarian stuff via an acquisition, but the buzz around veggie stuff has definitely died away and they are looking at how to sort this business out. HFG have a seafood business in the UK which has not been doing all that well, but it does look like they have sorted this out now. What really attracts me here is the fit with my portfolio as I have no exposure to food type stuff (especially now HOTC is gone) but also it looks historically cheap to me - SharePad is showing a Forward P/E Ratio of 14.2 for next year, and 12.4 for the year after; I remember HFG regularly on a rating around 18, so there could be sizeable upside in time. On top of this, there is a Forward Dividend Yield of 4.3% rising to 4.5% - so I hope to pick up a nice income from it and also some decent capital upside potential. SharePad is showing Forward ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) figures of 15.2% rising to 15.9%, which is pretty good if achieved. The chart looks pretty good with a rising trend up from the Lows and there is a Gap up above which could close quite quickly. On the risk side, the debt is very large, but a business like this is highly cash-generative and those cash inflows and outflows are very predictable; HFG have done several acquisitions recently and this has driven up the debt. If Interest Rates generally start to drop back later in 2024/2025, then HFG should benefit. There is also risk around things like Swine Fever hitting input costs of pork and other related issues for other protein types; however the geographic spread and diversity across different meat types should help lower this risk. HFG reminds me of DVO Devro which I held years ago; this got a takeover bid and I think a similar outcome is very possible on HFG (although I haven't bought for this reason). Recent Trading has been "in line with expectations" which of course is fine. There is a fairly new CEO but he looks very experienced in the food sector. In addition, there has been a bit of director buying.
5/12/2023 Sold HOTC Hotel Chocolat shares at 366p, taking a loss of 14% on my buy price. I bought these back in 2019 and really had high hopes for them; sadly though, the Pandemic smashed them and the shares got really beat up. I stuck with them because I thought the company did have a bright future, but then a takeover offer of 375p a share emerged from Mars, and it means I have run out of options. I wanted the cash to buy HFG so I just sold my shares in the market; waiting for cash from takeovers often seems to take forever and the % hit of acting now was not that much (2.4%). I am disappointed because I was hoping to average down at some point, but the takeover forced my hand.
27/11/2023 Bought XPS XPS Pensions Group as normal shares at 236p, to the tune of about 1.5% of my Portfolio Value. XPS does pensions consultancy advice work for large pension providers and also runs a pensions administration service that has been doing very well. Regulation and fears around the eroding of state pensions etc. and the ending of Defined Benefit pension schemes has led to a big rise in demand for pension related stuff and XPS plays to these themes. SharePad has XPS on Forward P/E 17.4 falling to 15.5 2 years out, and is on a forward Dividend Yield of 3.8% rising to 4.2%; which strikes me as very good value and I am hoping for share price growth as well as the chunky dividends (which are always welcome !!). XPS recently sold off a pension fund type operation it had and this has resulted in debt halving - so I don't see debt as a problem here. Recent updates have been "ahead of expectations" which is lovely to see, and the shares are in new territory with upwards momentum, after breaking out to a new All Time High. XPS has been listed for about 6 years now.
26/10/2023 Closed 2 Long Spreadbets I had running on STAN Standard Chartered Bank at 634p, after a disappointing set of results this morning. It is a shame I had to dump them now, whilst the markets are selling off anyway over the Middle East problems, and it's particularly irking because I have been stalking them for a sell for a few weeks and it would have been rather nice to have dumped them for a bit more. Anyway, it looks like the larger of these positions I bought back in early 2017 and I paid 740p, so I have taken a loss of about 14% on the exposure, but I reckon that is about 72% on the Deposit Margin used - not great at all (I am not totally sure what the Margin Deposit size would have been because igIndex changed the margin requirements a while ago and I think it was a lower margin back in those days). The smaller position I am baffled about; I have no record of it on my spreadsheets and it was a strange size which suggests there was some sort of share split or whatever. Perhaps the records would be on my igIndex account history, but I suspect it goes back a very long time. Anyway, it is a pain to have taken such a hit but to an extent the interest charges would have been offset by dividends; although for much of the time STAN might not have been paying much, if any, dividend. Of course we have had all sorts of nonsense like the Pandemic, the Ukraine War, and various issues between China and The West and all that; these issues, and particularly the Hong Kong situation, were why I was so keen to dump STAN. I talked about this a lot on a TikTok video recently I think. I only had STAN as spreadbets and I did not have normal shares (I might have done a few years ago), and as a result it was an 'odd' position and my desire to get the WD40 down to the WD30 (call it shrinkflation !!) was a big driver in my decision to push STAN out of the red door marked 'Exit'.
24/10/2023 GIT Geared Index Tracker - Closed the £1 a Point Short I had running on the FTSE100 at 7405, banking a Profit of £200. Not a bad return really on a small Short and it is nice to bank some gain. The profit is actually just under 3% of the £7065 starting capital, so that helps to pay for the financing costs and keep it in gain overall. I have gone a bit early perhaps because we got a Hammer Candle today after one yesterday, and ideally we would have had an up day to 'confirm' the Hammer of yesterday; but other global indexes look promising as per my entry below, and I have decided to close the Short out.
24/10/2023 Closed the S&P500 Short Spreadbets I had running, one at 4249 and one at 4250. This banked a profit equivalent to 0.25% of my Long Portfolio Value. It's a difficult decision but the RSIs are quite low (not oversold though) and the Candlesticks suggest the falls are relenting for now. It is risky to close my Shorts when the Middle East crisis is still ongoing, but it is nice to bank the profit and doing so frees up Margin Deposit which boosts my 'Cash available' and gives more buffer if we do get more drops. The European indexes like the CAC40 and the DAX look quite promising and the FTSE100 put in a Hammer today (after one yesterday as well) and it looks like a fairly synchronised sense that the worst is over.
18/10/2023 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) a bit more at 4321 via a DFB Spreadbet. I have gone same size as my previous Short from 13/10 and I am now about 16% hedged in total, against my Long Portfolio Exposure. The markets tried to really a bit but have turned down again and there are several technical signs of weakness. We had a big down candle on the S&P500 today and on RSI 45 it can fall a long distance, and the 13/21 day EMAs are bearish and the MACD is heading towards a Bear Cross. Nasdaq is similar and tech makes up a large chunk of the S&P500. I did a TikTok video on the @wheeliedealer2 account at the weekend which outlines my thinking with regards to adding some hedges.
13/10/2023 GIT Geared Index Tracker - Shorted the FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7605 at £1 a Point, equivalent to 20% of the Permanent Long on the GIT of £5 a Point. As per the entries below, it seems to me that indexes are turning down again, and I have decided to add a small bit of hedge.
13/10/2023 Shorted the S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 4322, equivalent to 8% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. It looks to me like Indexes are turning down again, and I want some hedge against that.
13/10/2023 Closed one of the Long Spreadbets I had running on the DAX at 15129, taking a loss equivalent to less than 0.1% of my Total Portfolio Exposure. It looks to me like the major indexes are turning down again and of course with the appalling events in Israel at the weekend, the economic backdrop is really difficult. It seems prudent to reduce leveraged Long Exposure and I have also added a small Short.
4/10/2023 GIT Geared Index Tracker - Closed the FTSE100 Short I had running at £1 a Point at 7425, banking a tiny profit of £81; but the interest costs are tiny as it was only open for 2 days. As per my entry below, I think US and European Indexes look ready to rebound and the DOW particularly is on an oversold RSI and they have all got promising Reversal Candle patterns/set-ups.
4/10/2023 Closed both Short FTSE100 spreadbet positions at 7425 and made a small profit, but when you include the interest charges of running the first one about 28 days, it works out roughly breakeven. Disappointing outcome really but the FTSE100 has not dropped back like other Indexes have; this is probably because of the skew induced by its strange weighting methods, where the 'Top 10' have an extreme impact on the index. It looks to me like a rebound could be coming very soon, with the US looking ready to bounce. The FTSE100 did not drop like the others but I suspect it will rise with the rest of them !! I decided to close out and just go 100% long but of course I have 2 Long positions on the DAX.
2/10/2023 GIT Geared Index Tracker - Shorted the FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at £1 a point at 7507, meaning the GIT is now 20% hedged. As per the entry below, things look a bit wobbly and I wanted to take out some insurance. The margin deposit required was just £375 so there is loads of cash left in the buffer to soak up any weakness. In an ideal world, I would close this out at a profit and then look to add an Extra Long to grab some profit on a bounce.
2/10/2023 Shorted the FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7507, equivalent to about 9% of my Long Portfolio Exposure, so now roughly 20% hedged. I am not happy with the failure of the markets to rally and with October often being a difficult month, it seems wise to hedge a bit more. There are some weak technical signs like MACD Bear Cross and lining up a 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross, and FTSE100 looks very much to be trading in a range with potential downside to 7200 or so. With daily RSI around 50 there is potential to drop quite a long distance if the mood comes upon it.
27/09/2023 Opened a Long DFB Spreadbet on the DAX (Germany 40 on igIndex) at 15257, equivalent to around 9% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. I already had a Long here that I opened some time ago, and as these things go, I am quite underwater on it; so this new Long is to average down and hopefully get me out of an awkward position. We have had quite a sell-off in European and US Markets (strangely the FTSE100 has largely avoided this fate) and with low RSI readings now, I think the chances of a bounce are pretty good. The DAX did a 'Bullish Doji Star' 2 day Candlestick pattern and I am happy to place a Long now, although of course I might be slightly early. The US Indexes have done nice Hammer Reversal patterns tonight, and they are on low RSIs so a coordinated bounce looks very possible.
7/09/2023 Shorted the FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7387 in my normal portfolio, equivalent to about 9% of my Long Exposure. I have started hedging small but may well add more short as it plays out. There are several reasons I have shorted the FTSE100; the Autumn period, especially September, is often when we see big falls on the indexes and we have several technical signs that show weakness. Over about 6 months, there is a flat-bottomed triangle on the FTSE100 and it is squeezing down from above. We also have 13/21 day EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) that are in the bearish mode and at RSI around 50, it could fall quite a long way. Against this, weakness in the £ could support the FTSE100 but this may be overdone with so much talk of recessions across the globe. I have not shorted the GIT yet, but I might well do that.
6/09/2023 GIT GEARED INDEX TRACKER - as per the entry below in my 'normal' portfolio, I decided to close the £1 a point Extra Long I had running on the FTSE100 GIT. This banked a small gain of £107 but amazingly, that was a return on the Margin Deposit (in effect the ROCE) of 30% !! On the exposure, it was a mere 1.5%, but for a trade where I was really lowering risk and being cautious, it wasn't so bad really.
6/09/2023 Closed the Long Spreadbet I had running on the FTSE100 at 7377, banking a tiny profit, but amazingly, it was still 12% Return on the Margin Deposit; unfortunately, as a profit on the exposure, it barely registered !! Markets have been extremely low volume in recent days and the month of September is often an awkward one. With Markets looking weak again this morning, I decided to take the safe option and bank the tiny gain and to thereby lower my Long spreadbet exposure and to increase the Cash I had in my spreadbet account, as the margin deposit was freed up. This means my account is more able to soak up any further weakness, which I think is highly likely. I haven't had this position running for long and I was aware that after the initial rise from a very oversold RSI reading, it then seemed to quickly run out of puff; this is another reason I decided to close it.
30/08/2023 Bought a Long Spreadbet on Admiral Insurance ADM at 2534p on the Mar24 contract, equivalent to about 1.5% of my Long Exposure in total (not including my Income Portfolio, in which I hold ADM already). I wanted more exposure to ADM, especially because it has got over 2400p in recent days and has crawled out of the previous range it seemed to be stuck in. They did a very good trading update recently and this has been the catalyst for more buying interest in the stock. I do not have the funds in my Income Portfolio to buy more, and I wanted the cash in my Normal ISA for other stuff, so I was pleased to see the margin requirement on ADM is 20% (a lot of shares are 25%), and this means I don't need to tie up loads of capital to get a position. The price I paid does look rather high, but you need to realise that on the Forward Spreadbet Contracts, the interest charges and dividends are already factored in, and what matters is the difference between the Buy and Sell on each of these different contracts (you can buy 3 months out, 6 months out, or 9 months out - and the longer the date, the cheaper the costs work out). At the time I placed this trade, the price for normal shares to buy was about 2450p. I have all my Spreadbets set to 'Automatic Roll Over' and you can do this in some sort of global setting in the menu (this means my Spreadbets could in theory run forever). At the time of my buy, SharePad has ADM on fwd P/E 21.4 and 2 years out 18.1 with fwd Dividend Yield 4.3% rising to 5.3%; I think it is quite possible that as the insurance cycle turns in favour of ADM (as it is already doing), then the underlying forecasts might get raised, thus meaning the 'true' p/e could be a lot lower. I suspect ADM could get back to the 3000p level and perhaps with patience it can go up near the previous 3500p heights - but that would need a lot of patience and time most likely. It does seem a very well run business though. It goes ExDividend on Thursday 7th September and could well run up to that. I am trying to reduce my number of stock related Long Spreadbets and to do more with indexes, but for the reasons I mentioned above, it suited me to buy ADM in this way. I also noticed last night that my overall exposure is a bit less than I thought it was, so I did not feel too stressed in adding a little bit more. Note also that Daily Funded Bets (DFBs) are the most expensive tool and are only worthwhile for short periods, like maybe 30 days or something.
23/08/2023 Opened (Bought) a Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7334, equivalent to about 10% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. I have a Long Spreadbet running on the German DAX and it is underwater at the moment, so I wanted to average down on it, to get out of the position if things continue to recover after the recent drops. However, looking at the DAX it doesn't look great and to a large extent, all major indexes tend to be closely correlated and move together - so I could in effect use any index to average down against my DAX Long. Anyway, I looked at them all and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Comp look quite good but I thought the FTSE100 looked like it could give most upside. In addition, I use the FTSE100 for the GIT so I am pretty focused on it anyway. I haven't gone mad on it and have kept my position size fairly limited - I still feel a bit cautious this time of the year with Autumn not far off now.
18/08/2023 GIT GEARED INDEX TRACKER - Bought an Extra Long on the FTSE100 using a DFB Spreadbet of £1 a Point at 7263, as per the rules. Deposit/Margin on this is £363 and it has a Long exposure of £7,263 (7263 x £1), which is 20% on top of the current Long exposure of the GIT (which is £5 a point x 7263, which equals £36,315 total exposure). With the Extra Long, the total exposure is now £43,578 (£6 x 7263). A good way to visual this exposure, is to see it as equivalent to doing a Long ETF of £43,578 in a normal share account; but because of the leverage, I have only used 5% of this as margin/deposit, which is £2,178. The whole point of the GIT is to create an Index Tracker that uses leverage to juice up returns, but to do it in a way that keeps risk to a controlled level. The rationale behind putting on this Extra Long is that we have had a really quite severe week on the markets and the FTSE100 has pretty much dropped vertically down. On a reading of RSI 33 it is very low, although not quite at the Oversold RSI 30 level, but I am going a bit early to get a Long position on at a very good price. We might see a little more downside early next week but we are pretty much there. I am likely to add more Long positions to my normal spreadbet portfolio and might even do another Extra Long on the GIT, but as much as I want to take on risk, I am also very cautious this time of year going into Autumn. We also got a bit of a Hammer Reversal on the FTSE100, although not a great example. Interestingly the German DAX did quite a nice Gap down and then a Hammer Reversal.
15/08/2023 Sold HLN Haleon from my Income Portfolio at 333p and closed a Long Spreadbet I had at 334p. This was a spin-out from Glaxosmithkline GSK whereby I kept a load of 'new' GSK shares but also got a small rump of HLN. I have sat on these for a while and monitored progress, but the reality is that it is too dull for my Normal Portfolio (the WD40) yet it does not have a high enough dividend yield at around 2.5% to justify me buying more in my Income Portfolio. HLN seems to be trading pretty well but there is a share overhang from both GSK and Pfizer retaining shares in HLN (they could sell them at any time, putting downward pressure on the shares), and HLN has quite a bit of debt, so the dividend is unlikely to rise quickly. So in essence, I can't do a lot with the shares I had and there just seems no point hanging on to them, when I can recycle the cash into something that will give a bigger yield in my Income Portfolio. I am not sure how the profit/loss on this worked out but I am not overly concerned because it just had to go and I have shifted them at pretty much the same price as when they span-out of GSK. With the shares gone, there was no point keeping the very small spreadbet I had on them.
10/08/2023 Bought 4150 Shares of SUPR Supermarket Income REIT at 78p each, totalling about £3,250 with dealing fee and stamp duty. I have been after these for a while and with a Dividend Yield expected of around 7.8%, that is a juicy payout to grab for my Income Portfolio. I think there is a great opportunity in REITs at the moment to pick up big dividends and as the interest rate cycle turns, I expect we will see Discount Rates reduce which will mean NAVs go up and we should get capital gains on our buy price as well. SUPR at the price I paid has a discount to NAV of about 20% and I see it as a nice boring low-risk stock that is ideal for my Income Portfolio and the low-risk profile and the 'do nothing' nature of it. If you look on my TikTok @WheelieDealer2 account, there is a 3 minute video about this purchase which you might find helpful.
27/07/2023 Closed (Sold) the small long spreadbet I had running on HSBC Bank HSBA at 642p, realising a tiny profit of 10% on the Margin Deposit and in actual £ terms, it was barely anything. However, I have held incredibly since February 2014 and for all that time I picked up big dividends, and these offset the much smaller Interest Charges which were incurred. It was not a great trade but it washed its face. The funny thing was when I made the decision to sell (as per the entry just below), I had absolutely no idea what my entry price was, but I just wanted it to go. So when I filled in the numbers on my spreadsheet, it was quite a surprise to see the tiny profit; I was actually expecting a loss. I don't like just holding a stock as a spreadbet on its own and I prefer to have 'mirrors' of my actual share accounts. For this reason, once the decision was made to dump HSBA from my Income Portfolio, as below, it was an automatic action to close the long spreadbet. It is worth noting that my luck in picking up big dividends on the HSBA spreadbet whilst only paying tiny interest charges, would not work very well as I type this in July 2023, because Interest Rates have shot up. This change and other factors (such as higher margin rates) are leading me to move away from individual share spreadbets and stick more to an Index approach using the GIT (Geared Index Tracker) system.
27/07/2023 Sold HSBC Bank HSBA from my Income Portfolio at 643p, realising a loss of 6% but I have held since January 2014 (it was one of the first stocks I put in the Income Portfolio) and picked up decent dividends over that time. I sold HSBA for several reasons, but the main one is that I am unhappy with such direct exposure to China and I think that tensions between the West and China could flare up at any minute, and HSBA would get hammered. It is a risk I just don't want (or need) to be anywhere near. On top of that, this issue around 'Debanking' being driven by Nigel Farage has the potential to spread across the UK bank sector and it could cause a lot of woes that will not help share prices. In addition, I had some cash from dividends in the Income Portfolio account and I looked through my holdings and in all honesty, I could see no future for HSBA because I would never want to add to it. So it was already a relatively small position and that made no sense. Now I have freed up cash and I am able to buy something new or top-up on something, that I am more committed to. The only bank I hold now is Standard Chartered STAN and in time I intend to dump this as well.
26/06/2023 GIT Geared Index Tracker - Closed the Extra Long at £1 a Point I had running on the FTSE100 at 7661, banking a profit of £142 which is 2% of the Starting Value of the GIT on Jan 1st 2023 and 37% on the Margin Deposit used (I calculated that against the £383 that was 'returned' as the Margin was freed up to become 'Cash available' but it would have been more accurate to calculate it against the starting Margin, which was lower. Anyway, I have not allowed for any Interest Charges [although these might be as little as £1.50 because the trade only ran for 1 month], so it is roughly about right). The US Markets are quite high and I felt that it was a good time to lower my Long Exposure (still got the Permanent £5 a Point on the GIT) and to bank some profit. Overall, it was a reasonable trade and it is worth appreciating that on a much bigger GIT system, the actual £ return could be significant.
28/06/2023 GIT Geared Index Tracker - Bought an Extra Long on the FTSE100 at £1 a Point using the Sep23 contract at 7520. This represents 20% of the £5 a Point of the Permanent Long and is as close as I can get to obeying the rules which say the first Extra Long should be 15%. The exposure is £7520 (7520 x £1 a Point) and this takes the total Long Exposure of the GIT to £45,120 (7520 x £6 a Point). The margin deposit for this Extra Long was £375, which leaves stacks of Cash Buffer. It is not a perfect setup on the charts but I like the rise off the Hammer of a couple of days ago and it is coming up off quite a low RSI reading. I am not so keen on the very low volume today which suggests a lack of commitment by Bulls. Adding just £1 a Point does not overexposure the GIT too much and if things go rough, I can hedge as per the rules. I used the Sept23 contract because the DFBs (Daily Funded Bets) work out cheaper for about 30 days but get more costly if used for longer; I have no idea how long I will end up running this Extra Long but I am wary of the usual big Autumn panic sell-off. I have all my Spreadbets globally set to 'Automatic Roll-over'.
2/06/2023 Bought more Admiral Group ADM in my Income Portfolio, using up most of a nice £2800 of cash that had built up through mostly dividend cash inflows. I now have just over £6000 in ADM and I think the shares are going to breakout of a 1 year range soon; so I have gone early so I can catch an expected forward dividend of 5.4% next year and 5.8% the year after (figures from SharePad). I bought 115 shares at 2317p each (£23 and 17p each) and the total deal value was £2682, with the stamp duty and £5 dealing fee which iWeb graciously charges. I explained in detail why I like ADM when I first bought a while back, but the key attraction apart from the tasty dividend, is that the insurance cycle is turning and whereas previously Motor/Home Insurers were caught out by having historic premiums but rapidly inflating costs for repairs and replacement cars etc, but now they are hiking premiums hugely (I think as much as 20% higher this year), and they will quickly get back to their reliably profitable ways. I insure with ADM myself and they are definitely one of the best in the business. Results are due around 10th August, and if the shares don't breakout before these, then I suspect they will breakout if the results show good progress, which seems plausible.
1/06/2023 Bought about 1.5% by Portfolio value of Telecom Plus TEP in my 'Normal ISA' at 1531p a share. I already hold in my Income Portfolio and it is a stock I have known and held for maybe 15 years. Robbie Burns, The Naked Trader, owns a huge amount of these shares and he is a distributor for Utility Warehouse, which is the brand under which TEP operates. I have quite a bit of my Income Portfolio exposed to TEP already, and the cash I have available there I have earmarked for buying more of another Stock I hold; so I decided to add in my usual portfolio where I had plenty of cash. I didn't want to do a Long Spreadbet on it because these days the margin requirement for stocks is 20% or 25% and I would prefer to use any cash in my spreadbet account to use on Index Trades, where the margin is just 5%. TEP provides Gas, Electric, Phone, Mobile, Broadband, Insurance etc. to consumers using an unusual Distributor model where individuals sign up other people (friends, family, neighbours etc.) to Utility Warehouse, and they get a cut of future bill payments etc. TEP has been very good at attracting new customers and distributors and the business offers appeal to customers when energy prices are high and a lot of lower priced competition was taken out of the market over the last couple of years. SharePad is showing a forward Dividend Yield of 5.3% rising to 6% the following year; which strikes me as very attractive and TEP has a strong track record of growing the dividends and in general growing all aspects of its business. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the SharePad Daily chart is extremely low and it looks very oversold now. Hopefully it will work out nicely for me with patience.
19/05/2023 Opened (Bought) Long DFB Spreadbet on DAX index (Germany 40 on igindex) at 16323, equivalent to 10% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. If you follow me on the Tweets you may have seen me mentioning the DAX ATH (All Time High) a lot recently and how a Breakout of that could be a good opportunity to catch a move up as it moves into 'clear blue water' with no natural resistance levels to hold it back. I have moved pretty much as the Breakout has happened, and with the RSI reading 69 or so I may have gone too early, but I don't want to miss the opportunity and if it pulls back, I have kept the position size pretty low so I could add more Long at a good time. I had also been watching the Nikkei 225 in Japan for a Breakout but I have not acted on that one, which is another reason I really want to move on the DAX (of course the Nikkei has moved up loads since I mentioned the opportunity to trade it !!). We still have the US Debt Ceiling issue dragging on and that is another reason I have tried not to be too greedy and I have kept my DAX exposure quite restrained.
27/04/2023 Sold BAR Brand Architeks at 31p, taking a painful loss of about 80% on my buy price and about 1.5% of my Portfolio Value. It is annoying but under my framework of: Is it a growth stock? Does it pay an income?, or Can it realistically recover?, I just don't think it fits any of these criteria and the chances of a recovery are very low with a very poor management team and several key mistakes along the line. Buying IDP Innovaderma was a disaster and quite frankly I should have sold them at that point, but I was giving them some time/space to do something good for a change. The recent trading update was typically poor and I have decided to switch the remaining money into W7L as below, and this means I have not added to the number of stocks I hold (I am trying to reduce to 30 in my main trading account). I think the chances of recovering the money I have lost on BAR are far better and more likely on W7L than waiting for a BAR recovery that probably won't happen; it will more likely just get worse.
27/04/2023 Bought about 2% of my Portfolio Value in Warpaint London W7L at 226p as normal shares. I have had my eye on these pretty much since they listed a few years ago, but never got round to buying them and about 2 years ago or so, they had some issues which knocked them off track. These days they seem really on the ball and the Trading Update yesterday was really good and this was the trigger to make me take the tough decision to take a big hit on BAR and to do the switcheroo into W7L, which is sort of a similar sector and psychologically etc., it makes it an easier decision. SharePad is showing W7L on a fwd p/e of 20.5 falling to 19.7 which is on the high side, but they have a lot of cash and no debt, and if you strip that out, it is more appealing. With an expected Dividend Yield of 3% rising to 3.1% the year after, the income return is quite decent here as well. The chart is a nice uptrend and it is getting near the All Time High (ATH) and a breakout of that would suggest more gains to come. The business is run by the Founders (founded in 2002) and they seem committed and good at what they do. There have been a lot of impressive arrangements to distribute through big retailers in recent months and that is likely to add to the growth. I also think the online side of things is quite small and must have a lot of scope to grow to be a much larger proportion. They distribute abroad as well which has plenty of opportunity. They specialise in low price point coloured lipsticks but have several brands which should spread risk a bit. There is a theory that in tough economic times lipstick sales increase as they are seen as 'affordable treats' and that could be true in this case. Fashion is a potential risk if what W7L creates goes out of popularity, but they do seem to be right on when it comes to vegan and sustainable aspects.
26/04/2023 GIT - GEARED INDEX TRACKER (was the Test System) - Closed the £1 a Point Extra Long I had running on the FTSE100 at 7825, banking a profit of £404 which is a return of 109% on the Deposit Margin used. As per my comments below, it seems like the Indexes are rolling over and are certainly weak, and I decided to lock in some nice profits, that have grown in 5 weeks. I am not Shorting to hedge yet, but I will monitor the situation. Obviously the GIT is now at £5 a Point Long on the FTSE100, with the Permanent Long remaining in place.
26/04/2023 Closed both the Long Spreadbets I had running on the FTSE100 at 7826, banking a profit equivalent to 0.7% of my Portfolio Value and with a combined return of 79% on the Deposit Margin used, in a period of 5 weeks. I am pleased with how these trades have worked out and I was keen to lock-in a decent profit as we head towards the more usually quiet summer months. It is a mixed picture but it looks to me like the indexes are rolling over and we have several bank holidays and things coming up, and these will likely add to the low volumes and the chop. I am not so sure as to put on some Shorts to hedge my Portfolio, but I will monitor things in coming days as usual.
3/04/2023 Bought 2050 Shares in INPP International Public Partnerships at 146.3p each for my Income Portfolio. This means I now have the full 15 Stocks for the Income Portfolio and from now on it is strictly 'one in, one out' (not that I am likely to trade them much; if anything, it will be more about adding to positions I already have). INPP invests in infrastructure type stuff of various sorts and is very similar to HICL Infrastructure, which was one I considered. I decided on INPP after much consideration of what to put in my Income Portfolio, and I ruled out 'Green' Energy plays as I have Oil exposure in SHEL and also NG. gives me exposure in the energy sector. I seriously considered PHNX but after buying ADM, I decided that one insurance related stock was OK and I wanted an Infrastructure one, because it should be boring and very much hands-off, and give me decent dividends and potential steady capital appreciation over the long term. From SharePad at the price I paid, the fwd Dividend Yield is 5.3% and that is expected to rise to 5.5%, and there is a small discount to NAV which is unusual in the recent history of INPP. They invest in all sorts of stuff like schools, water processing plants, bridges, roads, windfarm wire connections, and suchlike. They have investments in the UK, Canada, Australia and have just done their first move into New Zealand. I really think this is as boring as investment gets !!
21/03/2023 Bought more On The Beach OTB Shares at 146p each in my 'Normal' Portfolio. I have held these for years and like the business a lot, but of course it got smashed by the C19 clusterfurk and it has taken some time to get back on course. The latest update a few weeks ago was really good and in particular they have moved more into the 'premium' holiday market and also Long Haul. They bought Classic Holidays some years ago which looked like a useful acquisition but again that was derailed by C19, so with luck there could be a decent contribution to come from here. In addition, there has been a lot of recent information (for example from ABTA just at the weekend) about how the sector is in general doing very well with levels of flights and holidays almost back to levels before C19. The risks are around a consumer slowdown and inflation such as the rise in mortgage repayments, squeezing the cash that consumers have for holidays. However, the move by OTB to premium and Long Haul should appeal to a demographic that is more able to fund such breaks. The shares at the price I paid are showing on SharePad with a Fwd P/E of 11.2 falling to 8.7 and with a fwd Dividend Yield of 1.1% rising to 1.8%. Prior to C19, OTB was often on a rating of 18 or so and to get back there, we might see the Share Price double in time. I probably have about 2.5% of my Portfolio Exposure in OTB now and the buy today should have got the average Price I paid down quite a bit. Over a 2 year timeframe there is a Downtrend Resistance Line which is not ideal, but I feel like I have taken advantage of the recent sell-off over fears around the Banks to have created a pretty good entry price. With a nice Cash Pile as well, OTB looks very good value and with patience I expect it to do quite well for me.
20/03/2003 GIT (Geared index Tracker) - bought an Extra Long at £1 a Point on the FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7421, which is equivalent to an extra 20%. The Rules specify you should do 15% on the first Extra Long, but on a £5 a Point permanent long system, you have to go for 20% which is £1 a point; it is close enough. The Rules allow one more Extra Long of the same size, but this can only be placed after a 13/21 day EMA Bull Cross is established. The Margin Deposit for this Extra Long is £371 and there is stacks of cash left in the Buffer. My reasoning for the position is as per the entry immediately below.
20/03/2023 Opened a Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7422, equivalent to 9% of my Long Portfolio Value, so with the position just below, I am now up to 18% Extra Long. I like the Reversal and Hammer Candle put in today (monday) and on a reading of RSI 21, it is one of the lowest levels for the last 15 years. I am slowly building a 'ladder' of Extra Longs and may do at least one more in coming days, depending on how things play out.
14/03/2023 Opened Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7630, equivalent to 9% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. I wanted to open some sort of Long index spreadbet and do a 'stop and reverse' strategy, but I am not happy with the setup on the US markets and the FTSE100 is the best looking technically. In fact, it looks pretty good with a Bullish Harami 2 candles setup today and being on an RSI of 30; and a possible sideways move away from the bottom bollinger band. Again there is some uncertainty, so I have kept the position small and if it goes against me, I can manage it and look to buy more and increase the position size if the circumstances look good. Note, this is not on the GIT, but I may do an Extra Long on that in coming days if things shape up appropriately.
13/03/2023 GIT (GEARED INDEX TRACKER) Closed the £2 a Point Short Spreadbet I had running at 7550 on the FTSE100, banking a profit of £481, which is a 6.2% profit against the £7065 starting value of the GIT on January 1st 2023, and it was on a ROCE on the Margin Deposit of 61% - very nice. Again I might have closed this out early (see my rationale on the FTSE100 entry below and the S&P500 entry below that), but I have loads of Cash Buffer and this should soak up any more downside. I will see how things go, but may do an Extra Long at some point soon.
13/03/2023 Closed the FTSE100 Short Spreadbet I had running at 7550, banking a profit equivalent to 0.43% of my Long Exposure Value; so with the S&P500 Shorts below, I have banked a gain of 1.2% in equivalent Portfolio Exposure Value. The ROCE on the FTSE100 Short was 62%, which of course is very nice for a brief holding period (that is the beauty and the danger of leverage). This was an easier decision than the S&P500 shorts; the RSI is very low (not quite 30 but near enough) and we had a big down day and a lot of selling across the board. We may get more downside, but I suspect it won't be a lot.
13/03/2023 Closed all the S&P500 Short Spreadbets I had running, at 3862, banking a profit across the 3 bets, equivalent to about 0.8% of Total Portfolio Exposure and with a 65% ROCE. It is not any easy decision but the falls on Friday and action today means that on the DOW the RSI is pretty low (but not quite oversold to the RSI 30 level) and we got a 'Bullish Doji Star' candle pattern. On the Nasdaq the situation is less promising in that the RSI is only just below the Neutral 50 level, but we had a 'Bullish Meeting Lines' candle pattern and I see the S&P500 as a blend of the DOW and the Nasdaq, and I decided to close out the bets. By doing this I have freed up a lot of cash deposit that was held as margin against the bets, and that has boosted my Cash Buffer; so hopefully any more downside can be soaked up quite easily. If we see more drops (I don't expect a huge amount), then I will be very keen to add a Long Spreadbet or two; but at the moment I lack the confidence and certainty to go Long any more than I am anyway (I prefer to only trade when the odds are heavily in my favour).
7/03/2023 Shorted the S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) a bit more at 3988 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to another 7% of my Long Portfolio; so now I am 35% hedged in total with the FTSE100 Short I have as well, and I am about 21% hedged via the S&P500. Things are clearly a bit nervous and it is a typical point of the year for a drop of some sort ("Sell in May and go away.....") and the failure of the recent rally to be sustained, highlights this weakness. The US indexes are all showing bearish trends on my favourite signal, the 13/21 day EMAs, and I have decided to increase my hedges a little bit. I was toying with shorting the FTSE100 a bit more but it is a pig of an index really and often doesn't behave as I would expect; so for now I am keeping away from it unless I get clearer technical signs of weakness.
6/03/2023 Bought more Avation AVAP at 135p in my 'normal' portfolio, equivalent to about 1% of total portfolio value. Roughly I must have about 3% in AVAP now and that feels about right, because it is small and quite illiquid and of course, like anything, not without risk. I have wanted to buy more here for some time after it got smashed by the C19 mess (AVAP is a small aircraft leasing business) but I have been steadily building confidence that they are on the road (or flightpath !!) to recovery. After good results on Friday, I am certain enough to be able to take the plunge. Back a few years ago AVAP was subject to a takeover offer and from memory it was up around 400p; so even if it just managed to recover half of that, it would be worth having. What particularly excited me on Friday was the raised NAV at 282p a share and with a share price of 135p, that is a bit more than 50% discount. In addition, Jeff Chatfield, the CEO, makes a believable observation that because of the reduced production of planes during the C19 disaster, it is likely that planes will hold up well in valuation terms; especially if they are seen as more 'green' and fuel efficient like the turboprop ATRs that AVAP has many of (and some purchase options on). SharePad is showing a forward Dividend Yield of about 3.6% which isn't too shabby and I suspect that once we see forecasts for another year out, this will be nearer 4% on my buy price. I have held AVAP for many, many, years and even had some when it was Skywest, which seems like a lifetime ago !! The management seem very capable and I have met them many times at various investor events. It lines up with my current stance of trying to buy more of things I already have and know well and to gradually reduce my holdings in my WD40 to 30 (of course it will then have to be the WD30 !!).
2/03/2023 Bought more Telecom Plus TEP at 1898p a share, but this time in my 'normal' Portfolio, to complement the holding I have in my Income Portfolio. At this price, I should be locking in a fwd Dividend Yield of 4.2% for the coming year, and 4.8% for the year after (figures from SharePad). Recent results have been extremely strong with the pressure on energy prices playing to TEP in terms of more demand for their unified bill (they trade under the brand name 'Utility Warehouse') and also because new people are joining to be distribution partners as it can bring additional income in these straitened times. TEP uses a 'word of mouth' type sales model where people sell via friends and family and also operate small local sales operations. They do no conventional advertising and also have a low marketing spend. In effect they make profit by selling several home services like energy, mobile, broadband, insurance etc. and the customer gets one bill. If the customer signs up to more services, they get more discounts. The partners who introduce the new customer, get a payment and a residual income. TEP has been held back for years because the Energy Price Cap had limited the need for customers to switch supplier, but with the recent explosion of the marketplace with many lowly capitalised businesses collapsing, this created a huge opportuntiy for TEP and is a key reason for the improvement in growth. The Shares had a big run up but have come off a lot recently. There is a risk they keep falling for a while but that is why I have put about 1.5% of my Portfolio Value (by exposure) into them and if it continues to drop, I might well be buying more. Other risks are around new product ideas not going very far (the recent Green Glow boiler replacement service was a disappointment) and the founder moving on is a potential negative. Other than that, it is a superb business with growth potential and a chunky dividend.
22/02/2023 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) a bit more, via a DFB Spreadbet at 4000, equivalent to 7% of my Long Portfolio value; an almost identical trade to the one I placed last night (see immediately below). With last night's short and the FTSE100 short I have, I am now about 28% hedged on my long portfolio. I have decided to go a bit early here; the signals are mixed with the DOW having done a 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross but the Nasdaq and the S&P500 haven't. I have taken a bit of risk here but the mood of the markets seems very changed and the inability to bounce today after a big drop yesterday, doesn't seem a great sign. There are worries around inflation being stubborn again and this would mean Interest Rates perhaps staying higher for longer. In addition the Ukraine situation is messy and China is going to announce a 'Peace Plan' on Friday which could come with a caveat; "Accept this deal or else we start backing Putin with weapons". That could be dynamite to markets in a very bad way.
21/02/2023 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 3999, equivalent to 7% of my Long portfolio value. This time of year the markets often have a big sell-off, and I am taking some precautions in case that happens again. I am already short on the FTSE100 but don't want to add to that unless we get a clear signal like a 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross. The US markets today were very weak and the S&P500 is very near a 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross and also an 8/21. On the Weekly, for the last 2 weeks we have had Bearish Inverted Hammers and the price moves this week, confirm those candles. I have not gone crazy and have kept the exposure of the Short Spreadbet fairly low; I can add to it if the circumstances play out in that way. The GIT is already 40% hedged as per the short I placed shown in the relevant entry below.
9/02/2023 Closed the Long S&P500 Spreadbet I had running at 4086, banking a profit equivalent to 0.3% of my Long Portfolio Exposure and a return of 50% on the capital used as Deposit Margin (ROCE). It seems to me that the Nasdaq is rolling over from overbought levels (high RSI) and it seems prudent to lower my Long Exposure and bank some profit. I view the S&P500 as like a cross between the exciting Nasdaq Tech stocks, and the dull old fashioned DOW stocks. I have had this running since early December 2022 as i wanted to play a possible santa rally; but that didn't happen and I decided to run the bet because it was quite small. It is nice that I got away with it !!
18/01/2023 Shorted FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7791, equivalent to about 12% of my total Long exposure (Shares plus Long Spreadbets, but excluding the GIT). Reasons for my short are as for the GIT below.
18/01/2023 Shorted FTSE100 on the GIT (Geared Index Tracker - was formerly the Test System) via a DFB at £2 a point at 7790. Margin deposit needed is £779 and I remembered to use the 'Force open' button. This is equivalent to £15,582 of normal shares; so the GIT is now a net £3 Long. Stocks have run up well in the first couple of weeks of January and the FTSE100 is very overbought on the Daily RSI and the DAX is extremely overbought. US indexes ducked down today but they are not over-extended like the european markets are. I am not expecting a huge drop but I just wanted a bit of hedging.
13/12/2022 Sold APP Appreciate Group normal shares at 41p, banking a profit of 55% and I have had the odd dividend or two. I have held this not all that long and it is a good outcome, although the takeover offer is on the low side but it does look like the deal is settled. As with DVO below, I am not hanging around and I have freed up the cash to enable me to consider some options in early 2023. I will most likely buy more of stuff I already have; and I am tempted to buy some ADM Admiral Insurance for my 'normal' Portfolio, after having bought for my Income Portfolio. In truth, I just can't wait to see the back of stinky 2022 and clearing out APP and DVO is just housekeeping really.
13/12/2022 Sold DVO Devro normal shares at 308p and sold the Long Spreadbet I had on them at 306p. On the Shares I banked a profit of 49% and I have had lots of dividends after several years of holding, On the Spreadbet I banked a gain of 64% on the exposure and about 255% on the Capital Employed. Again I will have had dividends which might have overweighed the interest charges. DVO is the subject of a takeover bid and it looks like a settled deal, so I see no point in hanging around as the cash usuaily takes ages to arrive from the company and there is a risk that the deal could fall through. DVO is a decent company but it has been quite a rocky ride and I am not too upset to offload it. I have a bigger goal to get the WD40 down to WD30, and this is a another step in that direction.
12/12/2022 Opened a Long DFB Spreadbet on the S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3985, equivalent to about 10% of the Initial Exposure of my Long Portfolio on January 1st (with my Portfolio getting hit this year, as a % of current Exposure it is clearly a bit more). My intent is to play the 'Santa Rally' which I think I mentioned on Podcast TPI 89 and I have done a TikTok video about it on the @wheeliedealer account. I expect this spreadbet to run into the first few days of January 2023, but I will monitor as it goes along and take any action if I see a need to.
6/12/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Closed the £1 a Point Extra Long I had running at 7549 on the FTSE100, banking a Profit of £638 which is 8.3% of the Test System starting value since the reset of £7612 (the Margin Deposit plus the Cash Buffer). I am very pleased with this obviously, and it has helped to make up for screw ups I made back in April in particular (to be fair on myself, I was having an operation !!). The reasoning behind closing this is as per the entry just below and I am keeping the Long £5 that is a permanent thing (that is how the System works).
6/12/2022 Closed both of the Long Spreadbets I had running on the FTSE100 at 7549, banking a profit equivalent to a bit over 1% of my Portfolio Value. I am very pleased with this trade and it follows my new philosophy of not being so greedy and keeping the exposure size more sensible (I described this in a TikTok video recently on the wheeliedealer2 account). I am not anticipating a big sell-off as December is usually the best month and we often see weakness in early december, and then around the 17th the Santa Rally starts. I am not at the moment thinking of going short and hedging, but clearly I will keep monitoring the situation. With the FTSE100 still quite high on the RSI and with other Indexes looking weak, along with Oil struggling, it seems prudent to bank the nice profits and to lower my long exposure; particularly because it is leveraged.
6/12/2022 Bought some shares in Admiral Insurance ADM in my Income Portfolio. I bought 150 shares at 2016p each and this means an outlay of £3044 with the dealing fee and the stamp duty. I expect to be able to hold this one for a long time and not to worry too much about it. I did a short video which is on the TikTok WheelieDealer2 account and that explains why I bought it, but in essence it is the cyclical nature of how insurance works, with Premiums lagging Costs to an extent and I expect Premiums to shoot up next year. ADM should pay a nice big Dividend (6.5% and likely rising) in future, and I expect good recovery in the share price as time plays out. I might buy more at some point and currently the position is 4.2% of the Income Portfolio value. ADM has a good history of growth and seems very well run, they are launching new products regularly and they have operations in the US and in Europe as well. The shares have dropped off a lot in 2022 (just like so much else) and there might be some more downside, but with patience I think this will work well for me.
2/11/2022 Closed S&P500 Long Spreadbet at 3757, taking a small profit. I was hoping this would gove more upside, but after the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision tonight, the DOW and Nasdaq sold off heavily, and I envisage the S&P500 as a blend of both. The DOW was already quite toppy on an RSI around 68 last night and the Nasdaq just seems weak still, and I don't want to take any chances with it. There are US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers on Friday and that could cause more challenges for the markets. It just seemed prudent to lower my long leverage but I am keeping the FTSE100 Longs I have for now.
25/10/2022 Bought another Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7004, equivalent to 6% of my Long Portfolio Exposure as at 1st Jan 2022; as a % now, it will be higher because my Portfolio has dropped quite a lot this year. Combined with the S&P500 Long Spreadbets I have running, I am now 20% of Portfolio Exposure on Jan 1st in Index Trades; so you could say I am 120% Long as I am pretty much 100% invested in my Stocks. I already had about 14% extra longs on the indexes but I could see the bounce was going nicely and the Charts tonight show several 13/21 day EMA Bull Crosses and also a few 8/21 day EMA bull crosses. In addition, the RSIs have risen well off the Lows but still have room for a fair bit of upside before the Rally falters. I don't see this bounce as really being sustainable and if you look on my WD2 TikTok account, you should find a video I published today about 'How to play recovery' which gives my thoughts. Note also that October candlestick patterns look pretty good although we still have a few days to go.
13/10/2022 Bought Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 6891, equivalent to about 6% of my Portfolio Value (note this is based on the starting value on 1st Jan 2022, not the current value). Combined with the Long Spreadbet I have running on the S&P500, I am now roughly 115% Long. I was tempted to go Long more on the S&P500 but I am a bit wary because of US Earnings season. However, I am already tracking the FTSE100 for the Test System, so it seemed a reasonable idea to add extra Long to my normal portfolio using the FTSE100. In addition, there is a lush looking Hammer Candle on it today and the RSI is very low. I am still being cautious though with just that sort of 15% of extra long and it still feels like a time to not go crazy on the risk side of things. I am having thoughts around how Stoplosses are best used, and I intend to record a TikTok video on this soon; if you are unaware of my TikTok stuff, then do a google search on '@wheeliedealer on TikTok' and you should find out what I've been up to !!!
3/10/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Bought an Extra Long on the test system at £1 a Point, as per the rules; which is 20% extra exposure to the long tack. I opened it as a DFB because I don't anticipate holding it for too long, and it was at 6911 with a margin requirement of £345. With Daily RSI readings so low it looks like a move up is very likely but it may not get all that far with so much awful news around. Having said that, September was a shocker of a month and a lot of selling must have occured back in that dreadful month.
28/09/2022 Bought a Long Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB at 3734, equivalent to about 8% of my Long Portfolio exposure. I am keeping it small because conditions are clearly very high risk now but it all looks oversold and today has a feel of capitulation. I have a Stoploss at 3590 which I will operate on a manual, end of day, basis. I considered a Long on the FTSE100 which looks good for a bounce, but with the turmoil UK and Europe are facing, I thought the S&P500 might be slightly lower on the risk scale.
1/09/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM closed all FTSE100 Shorts at about 7181, which banks a loss of £346. This is by no means an ideal situation, but as I explain on the entry below, I was in a hole and needed to get out. To have got out for a £346 hit is ok. I am now 100% long on the Test System and there is loads of Cash Buffer in the account to soak up any further drops.
1/09/2022 Closed all the Short Spreadbets I had running on the FTSE100, the DAX and the S&P500. The markets have dropped a fair bit this week and tonight in the US, we got treated to Hammer Candles which suggest the Bulls are fighting back. The RSI is not hugely low, but it is at a level where a rally is very possible. I have been in a hole for a while on the FTSE100 Shorts I had running, and I do not want to miss the opportunity to get out of the problem. The recent Shorts I added on DAX and S&P500 have helped me recover this situation. I have banked a loss equivalent to about 0.25% of my Long Portfolio Exposure, across all these Shorts; this is a decent result and now I have a nice cash buffer if the Markets do drop a bit more. We have the US Non Farm Payroll numbers for August tomorrow and I was not comfortable to carry my Shorts into this news announcement. It was also noticeable that my Stocks were hit very hard today with very few up and with some chunky falls; this suggests to me a lot of panic and fear, and possibly the capitulation for this wave down. My Shorts were banked on the FTSE100 at 7180; on the S&P500 at 3962 and the DAX at 12763.
30/08/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM added another £1 a Point Short DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7337 to take the hedging up to 80%, from 60%. This is in contravention of the rules, which limit hedges to 60%, but I have dug myself into a difficulty with Shorts that were opened quite low, so the intention is that this Short will raise the average entry price, and enable me to close the Shorts at some point with a small profit perhaps. It's not an ideal situation but my defence is that I placed the earlier Shorts just after coming out of hospital for the first bladder stone operation, and I was not really in a fit state to be making such decisions !! I remembered to use the 'Force Open' button which is important and the deposit used was £367 which leaves £2051 in the Cash Buffer (plus all of the Emergency Buffer) and with in effective just £1 a Point long now, the System has little chance of burning up all that cash and I should be able to manage the situation over coming weeks. Note this Test is being conducted with real, actual money (it would be meaningless as just a theoretical exercise) and I give out updates on how it is performing every night on Twitter.
29/08/2022 Added to my Short on the DAX (Germany 40 on igIndex) at 12765, again via a DFB Spreadbet to the tune of another 5% of my Long Portfolio. This means I am now hedged about 50% when expressed against the Long Exposure on Jan 1st 2022 and nearer 55% on my exposure now. That is the last of the Shorts I want to put on now as I am mindful that it can be dangerous to get 'over-hedged'. I might however add another tiny Short to the Test System to take that up to 80%. Quite simply, the autumn tends to be a difficult period for markets and in all my years of investing, I have without doubt never seen the economic backdrop looking so grim.
22/08/2022 Shorted DAX (Germany 40 on igIndex) at 13209 on a DFB spreadbet, equivalent to about 45% of my Long Exposure (50% if measured on Exposure today, as opposed to starting Exposure on Jan 1st 2022). It is not an ideal situation, because I now have Shorts on S&P500, FTSE100 and DAX; but I did not want to Short FTSE100 more and the DAX tends to move with S&P500 and the chart looks extremely bad (Downwards pointing Triangle over about 8 months). I will just have to manage the admin headache of having 3 different Indexes doing my Hedges. That is probably enough hedge now, although I might add another Short to the Test System as mentioned below.
22/08/2022 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 4192 on a DFB spreadbet equivalent to about 5% of my Long Portfolio, so now about 40% hedged (although nearing 50% if calculated against my Long Exposure currently; I base everything on the starting exposure of Portfolio for the year, which may not be best way when judging hedging amount). Already have hedge on S&P500 and wanted to raise my average entry price, and looks highly likely we are coming into an Autumn wobble after the rather pleasant bounce we were recently treated to. I also have Shorts on FTSE100 but not happy with these as it is so unrepresentative of the wider markets these days and I am seriously considering closing these Hedges, and reopening in equivalent size on the S&P500 or even the DAX. Or maybe I could partly do this. I am also thinking of adding to the Hedge on the FTSE100 Test System, to take it up to 80% from current 60% hedge; but this is against the rules - but of course part of the test exercise (with real money by the way) is to amend the rules were required.
1/08/2022 TopChopped about £5000 worth of Telecom Plus TEP at 2241p in my Income Portfolio, leaving roughly £8000 worth in that account and I still hold more TEP Shares in my 'normal' portfolio. TEP has had a stunning run and I am happy to continue holding despite a very high forward P/E, as I think there is a strong likelihood of Earnings Upgrades so the true rating is lower. Banked about 95% profit on the position I bought a few years ago (turns out I had bought TEP in the Income Portfolio in 3 chunks) and of course picked up plenty of dividends over the years; so it's been quite a pleasant experience. I now have some cash to deploy but I won't be rushing.
13/07/2022 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3791 on a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 6% of my Long Portfolio Value, so now hedged about 30%. I expect to add to this short in time but this is a small starter. I will operate a 'backstop' kind of approach because I don't want to be stopped out until things have definitely turned in general. On that basis, my Stop is at 4350 and I will operate it manually.
23/06/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Shorted FTSE100 via DFB Spreadbet at £1 a Point at 7018 so now 60% hedged. This is over the limit for hedging in the Rules I think; but the whole point of running the test is to refine the Rules as much as seeing how the system works in practice (with real money by the way). I am keeping the Stop at 7420 like the other hedges I have running. The deposit required was £351. I remembered to use the 'Force Open' button !!
23/06/2022 Shorted FTSE100 to the tune of 6% of Portfolio Value via a DFB Spreadbet at 7017; so now hedged about 25%. Not happy with how FTSE100 has been unable to push upwards, and Charts still look pretty weak. Keeping Stop at 7420 like my other hedges.
22/06/2022 I have shorted the FTSE100 a bit more via a DFB Spreadbet at 7057, in equivalent size to the one from 16th June, so I am now about 20% hedged. I will keep the same Stop at 7420 which is very generous but I don't want it stopped out unnecessarily, and I can always close it earlier if there really is a good reason to. I put this on early in the morning because I am unhappy with how the Markets have been unable to rally in any meaningful sense after the weakness last week, and I fear we could see more downside very easily. I might short a bit more in due course.
16/06/2022 Opened a Short DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7008, equivalent to 9% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. As described just below, I am not happy with the markets and wanted some hedging. The Stop is at 7420 like the Hedge on the Test System below. I have kept the Hedge relatively small because a bounce is possible before too long; but the market mood is very grumpy and I suspect any bounces will be short lived. I might Hedge more if such a bounce occurs and I sense an opportunity.
16/06/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Closed the FTSE100 Extra Long I had opened last night at 7000, taking a Loss of £280. This was not a good trade at all - see my comments below. In addition, I have now opened a Short Spreadbet via a DFB to the tune of £2 a Point at 7007, which is 40% hedging. I am unhappy with how Support broke down today and the US Markets have been extremely weak. I have put a very wide Stoploss at 7420 - I don't want to be stopped out and I want the Hedging to mean that I don't need to eat into the Cash Buffer and the Emergency Buffer much. So in effect the System is now £3 a Point Long, rather than £5 (I remembered to use the 'Force Open' button. The margin deposit required was £701.
16/06/2022 Closed FTSE100 Long Spreadbet I placed last night at 7002, taking a Loss equivalent to 0.5% of my Long Portfolio value. The FTSE100 broke down through support in the morning and it hit and went past my Stoploss level, so it was definitely something I needed to take action on. I am not happy with how this went. Of course some is hindsight bias but once the Support of tuesday's Low was broken, I perhaps should have closed it out then. I was waiting for how the FTSE100 closed but perhaps the lesson is that in future when such significant support breaks, I should close it out. When markets are so weak it makes sense that I focus on doing Hedges when required, and perhaps I should be more selective with Longs which would be counter-trend and clearly risky. In this case I was relying on a Long Tails Doji being a turning point, but in reality these are not ideal Reversal Signals and I should really stick to Hammers and Harami's from very oversold (extreme low RSI) levels. The only thing I did right here was to keep the position relatively small.
15/06/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Bought an 'Extra Long' DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 as per the Rules at £1 a Point (equivalent to 20% of the Permanent Long) at 7281. This required a Margin Deposit of £346 and my Stoploss will be at 7125 as per the other Long Spreadbet I placed on my normal stuff, just below.
15/06/2022 Bought a Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 7281, equivalent to 13% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. I want to play a rebound if possible, but I do not have really high conviction so I have kept the trade size low. My Stoploss is at 7125 which is below the Low of the Long Tails Doji candle from yesterday and I will operate that on an EOD (End of Day) basis with manual operation (no hard stop with my broker). I have also done a similar Long on the FTSE100 Test System and decided to just stick to the FTSE100 even though it looks like the US Indexes could bounce nicely (all have low RSI levels around 30).
14/06/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Closed both the £1 Shorts I had running to hedge the permanent long, one at 7187 and the other at 7186. This banked profits of £247 and £163, giving £410 over the pair, which should boost the System performance a lot this year. Now got over £4000 of Cash Buffer sat in the account, so it can easily soak up any more downside if I have unhedged a bit early.
14/06/2022 Closed (bought back) the remaining Short Spreadbet I had on the S&P500 at 3735, banking a Profit equivalent to 0.5% of Long Portfolio Value. Daily RSI really low now and I think a bounce is coming fairly soon; I might be a bit early but it is near enough and I have loads of Cash Buffer in my Spreadbet account to soak up any further downside. I would love to put a Long Index Trade on but will see how it goes in coming days.
13/06/2022 Closed (bought back) half the Short Spreadbets I had running on the S&P500 at 3758, banking a Profit equivalent to 0.7% of Long Portfolio Value. It was not an easy decision but the selling Friday and Monday (today) has been quite hefty and it seems wise to scale out of the hedges. This boosts my Cash Buffer in my spreadbet account and banks a very nice profit. If markets fall more, my buffer can cope easily and I am still 10% hedged overall. I will review remaining hedges tomorrow night and for now I am leaving the Index Spreadbet Test System at its current 40% hedge.
10/06/2022 Shorted S&P500 at 3910 using a DFB Spreadbet to the tune of another 10% of my Long Portfolio exposure, so I am now 20% hedged. I will keep the stoploss the same as my S&P500 Short from 9th June for ease, and in practice I will try to close out early. As always I will operate the Stop manually.
10/06/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Shorted FTSE100 at 7350 at £1 a point using a DFB Spreadbet and remembering to use the 'Force open' button. This is equivalent to 20% of the Long Exposure and is the same as the Short I opened on the 9th June, so the system is now 40% hedged. The deposit required was £367 which leaves loads of bash cash buffer in the account. For convenience, I will keep the Stop the same as the one from the 9th and in practice I will try to close out earlier if I think the mood of the market is improving.
10/06/2022 Closed (Sold) long spreadbet I had running on Telecom Plus TEP at 1744p, making a profit of around 60% on the exposure, but over 300% on the Capital employed (the Margin). Not bad but I have held for years and the dividend payments will have offset the interest charges. I still hold as normal Shares in my Income Portfolio and I will hold onto these, because TEP is a quality business. The valuation looks a bit stretched now and closing a long spreadbet has the double advantages of freeing up margin cash (adding to my buffer) and reducing the long exposure overall; that's useful in tough times when you need to control leverage carefully. I am sure that if I see an opportunity in the future, I will be opening a long spreadbet on TEP again.
9/06/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Shorted FTSE100 at £1 a point via DFB Spreadbet at 7435 so now the System is in effect long at £4 a Point. I had to remember to click the 'Force open' box as that is important; I don't want it netting off against the £5 a Point permanent long. My stop is at 7700 but a tighter one could be placed; I operate stops manually. Deposit is £371 and the hedge is 20% of the Long Exposure. The Rules say the first hedge should be 15% but with £5 a Point as the permanent Long, you have to go with 20% really (£1 a point although 50p is possible by a complicated method of opening a £1 Short and then 'partial closing' half of it). I will monitor the situation but may end up shorting more.
9/06/2022 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) at 4021 on a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 10% of my Long Exposure. Stoploss at 4325 which gives some wiggle room although it would be possible to place tighter. I operate manually not with a fixed stop with igindex; in practice I tend to close out early. Looks to me like mood of market generally is souring again and the inability to established 13/21 day EMA Bull Crosses is particularly not a good sign. I may add to this hedging in coming days.
8/06/2022 Bought i3e i3 Energy as normal Shares at 32p and as a Long Spreadbet on the Dec22 contract at 32.3p. Both positions equivalent to 1% of Portfolio Value, so I have 2% in i3e. I wanted more exposure to Oil & Gas because I think governments all around the globe have screwed up energy policy hugely, and the myopic obsession with Net Zero is causing chronic mismanagement of the transition, which is likely to keep prices high for some time going forwards. i3e operates in both Canada and the UK North Sea and has producing assets as well as lots of development opportunities. I like the relatively safe political jurisdictions and i3e is forecast to pay out 3.4% Dividend in each of the next 2 years, according to SharePad numbers. It is very possible that the payouts will be higher. The balance sheet looks decent and the chart has a nice uptrend, which has been consolidating a bit in recent weeks. I expect this Stock to deliver reasonable dividend payouts and also has loads of potential for capital gains as well.
26/05/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Closed the £1 a point short i had running on the system at 7560, taking a loss of £190. I had placed a Stoploss at 7625 and with a 13/21 day EMA Bull Cross and US markets looking perky, I decided to close it out early. So the system is now £5 a point Long with no hedging.
18/05/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Closed the Extra Long I had running at 7371, and was pleased to see it banked a Profit of £109. Just not happy with it and decided to Hedge the Permanent £5 a Point Long by placing a Short of £1 a Point at 7370 which means the System is now hedged 20%.
18/05/2022 Closed the S&P500 Long Spreadbet I had running at 3916, taking a Loss equivalent to 0.2% of Portfolio Value; I am just not happy with it, especially with the 13/21 day EMAs in 'Bear mode'. I decided it was wise to take a small hit and to stand aside for now.
10/05/2022 Opened a Long DFB Spreadbet on the S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 4000, equivalent to about 8.5% of my Long Portfolio Value. I have gone for a wide Stop at 3600 with a manual, EOD, trigger; the Entry setup is not ideal and I want wiggle room and may add if it falls more. I only see this is a tactical, fairly short-term trade.
10/05/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - opened an 'Extra Long' as per the rules on the FTSE100 at 7261 via a DFB Spreadbet at £1 a point; so it is now £6 a point Long. This is about 20% of the total exposure which is above the Rules limit which says 15%, but on £5 for the Permanent Long, I cannot do that small. I have given a wide Stoploss at 3600 which is more like a 'Backstop' because I am not 100% happy with the Technical Setup and if I am too early, then I can add more (the Rules allow an additional extra long). The Deposit Margin was £363 and there is loads of Cash in the Buffer in the account. I am a bit grumpy because I failed to Hedge on the drop, but I blame the pain from my operation !!
27/04/2022 Sold a chunk of the MPAC Shares I have at 510p and looks like I banked a profit around 400%. Also closed part of the long spreadbet I have at 497p (the wide spread due to interest charges and stuff of the spreadbet explains the difference) but I am not sure what profit I have made; need to consult my spreadsheets. I am still happy to hold MPAC but have not got such strong conviction as I used to have and I have reduced the overall position to about 3% of my Portfolio Exposure. 3% seems about right for what is really a smallcap stock and in the current economic environment it is clear that caution is wise. I have increased my cash a bit and reduced my long leverage by doing this trimming.
17/03/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - closed both £1 a Point FTSE100 Shorts I had running so I have gone from 60% hedged to 40% hedged and now to 0% hedged and actually 100% Long with £5 a Point, as per the Rules. Taken a loss of ££318 on the hedges in total, but this is not about losses or gains and more about enabling me to carry a high amount of leverage safely. As per the trades just below, we seem to be through the worst and I have decided to switch off all Hedging. The Rules allow me to add an Extra Long onto the System, but at the moment I am reluctant to do this as it would of course increase the Risk.
17/03/2022 Closed S&P500 Short spreadbet at 4394, taking a Loss of less than 0.1% of Portfolio Value. Overall the Hedges have cost me less than 1% and that is the cost of having insurance, that in practice I do not seem to need. I am now 100% Long again and closing the Hedges has freed up more cash in my Spreadbet Account to cushion any weakness. I have closed all my hedges out well before they got anywhere near their Stoplosses.
17/03/2022 Closed (bought back) FTSE100 Spreadbet Short at 7377, taking a Loss equivalent to about 0.7% of Long Portfolio value. Tough decision but I have decided to remove all hedges, as the immediate panic and crisis over Ukraine seems to be over, and hopefully WW3 is not about to kick off.
16/03/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - closed £1 a Point of the FTSE100 Shorts I had running so I have gone from 60% hedged to 40% hedged. Banked a tiny profit of £4 but this is not about making gains on the hedges, but enabling me to carry a high amount of leverage safely. As per the trades just below, I sense markets are a bit more steady and I decided to go more Long.
16/03/2022 Closed about a third of the S&P500 Short Spreadbets I had running at 4371, banking a small gain. As per reducing my FTSE100 Shorts below, the Markets seem more calm and I decided to ease back a bit on the hedging. I'm now 20% hedged overall.
16/03/2022 Closed about half of the FTSE100 Short Spreadbet position I had running at 7314, taking a Loss equivalent to about 0.1% of Portfolio Value. Dialled back hedges and still got 10% Short via FTSE100 against Long Portfolio Value. Markets looking more settled and perky and some talk around peace possibilities in Ukraine (I'm not convinced !!) and it seems appropriate to go a bit more Long. I am now overall about 20% Hedged.
7/03/2022 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more at 6865 via DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 9% of Long Portfolio value (this is based on the starting value on 1st Jan 2022, so the actual % against Long Portfolio value now will be a bit higher), and this takes my hedging up to pretty much 40% and I am happy with that level. Same Stop as the other bets at 7620 (for ease) but it must be realised this is a 'backstop' and in practice I expect to be out of the Shorts way before this. The Markets opened down this morning which shows much weakness as there was a good opportunity for Bulls to take the markets higher passed to them from the sell-off on Friday. I now have a nice 'ladder' of hedges in place. I cannot see this wave of selling to be over until the Ukraine situation is 'resolved' and that could be some way off. Up until this, I expect to see typical Bear Market snap-back rallies that fizzle after a few days of gains, as Sellers use the bounce to dump stock.
4/03/2022 Sold Air Partner AIR at 123p as normal shares and at 121p on a small Spreadbet I had running. The takeover bid is at 125p a Share and I was patiently waiting for a possible higher bid (as the deal is most definately not reflecting what AIR should be worth with the future potential), but in the current Ukraine situation I just think it is more likely the deal falls through and quite frankly I would rather have the cash now. I have held some since 2013 and bought more about 4/5 years ago, but overall it has not worked out as nice as I would have liked. I banked a Profit equivalent to about 0.5% of Portfolio Value which was about 25% return on the exposure {bit higher ROCE as the Spreadbet has leverage) and I would have picked up some Dividends as well. AIR started as AIP which was Air Partner also but I think there might have been some corporate action like a Rights Issue or something. I really can't remember and my spreadsheet records aren't helping. I do not regret hanging on to AIR and I think it was the circumstances in recent years as much as anything which didn't play out to the best advantage of AIR. In particular, the significant change in strategy was starting to bear fruit but I will miss out on that. Ah well, moving on....
4/03/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Shorted FTSE100 at £1 a Point on DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 20% of Long Exposure so now up to 60% hedged. Required margin deposit of £356 but leaves loads of Buffer in the account. Stoploss 7600 on manual EOD basis like my other Shorts. Charts generally look weak and with the Ukraine mess literally anything could happen
3/03/2022 Shorted FTSE100 at 7252 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalant to 12% of Long Portfolio exposure. Now up to 32% Hedged with my S&P500 Shorts as well. Stoploss at 7600 like the Test System because this keeps it simple, and of course to be executed manually and with an End of Day Trigger; not a firm order with my broker. I am not liking how the Markets have tried to rally but then run out of puff and turned down again. The 13/21 Day EMAs are in bearish mode on pretty much everything and this tends to give a strong steer on where the bigger trend is. Oil jumped up but Brent Composite is showing signs of struggling at $120 and if this eases back, that could pressure the FTSE100 as well. Banks have benefitted from rate rising cycle, but the potential economic weakness emanating from the Putin War, could make rate rises fewer and more restrained; which Banks wouldn't like. Overall mood is one of high uncertainty and risk, so I just wanted a bit more insurance.
1/03/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Shorted FTSE100 at £1 a Point on DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 20% of Long Exposure so now up to 40% hedged again. Required margin deposit of £366 but leaves loads of Buffer in the account. Stoploss 7600 on manual EOD basis like my other Short. Frustrating that I closed out a Short on Friday but need to act on the information at the time. Charts generally look weak and with the Ukraine mess literally anything could happen.
25/02/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Closed half the £2 Short Spreadbet I had running on the FTSE100 to hedge the permanent Long Spreadbet. So I closed £1 a Point at 7513 meaning the hedge dropped from 40% to 20%. This cost me £202 but that is the price of insurance that was not in the event required. The hedge was placed because of the uncertainty around whether or not Russia would invade Ukraine, and unfortunately we got the answer but Markets bounced hard today (Friday 25th Feb 2022) and it is not easy to read what will happen next. From looking at the Charts it is still a bit bearish but on the flipside, the fact we now know that the invasion has occurred, probably removes some uncertainty. I really wasn't sure so I decided to reduce the hedge rather than taking it off entirely. The remaining hedge has a Stoploss (see below) and I will obey that. As a possible matter of interest, on the igindex App, I went to the Short Trade of £2 and I hit the 'Close' button and then I changed the '£ per Point' from £2 to £1 and pressed the 'Close' button. It then did the trade and it said 'Partial close'.
24/02/2022 Closed (bought back) half the Short Spreadbets I had on the S&P500. Big bounce in US tonight as the markets reassess the Ukraine invasion which happened this morning, and the Charts suggest a rise of some sort could be coming and so I decided to lower my Hedging back to just 20% of my Long Portfolio now. Key indications are a 'Bullish Piercing Line' 2 candle pattern and an RSI down near 30 which is the oversold level. DOW and Nasdaq both look like they can rise. I banked a small Profit of 0.3% of my Portfolio but I am quite happy because the charts suggest I don't need so much protection and I still have quite a bit. I will leave the 40% hedge on the FTSE100 Test System for now but will be reviewing tomorrow night most likely.
24/02/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM Shorted FTSE100 at £2 a Point using a DFB Spreadbet at 7313, meaning it is now 40% Hedged. This is as per the rules and I clearly felt a need for protection once I heard Russia had invaded Ukraine. The Margin needed is £731 and in effect the Test System is now down to £3 a Point Long which is exposure around £21900, down from around £37,000. I think that is a manageable level of Hedging but I might add more at £1 a Point if I sense a need to. The Cash Buffer and the Emergency Buffer should be able to soak up any further declines. I wanted a thorough test of the System and it looks like I am getting it. Stoploss set at 7600 and will operate on a manual basis (no fixed order with igIndex) and will be determined on an End of Day (EOD) close basis. This will cost £574 if hit, but I hope to be able to close the Hedge well before that and reduce any hit (ideally I will close at a profit of course).
22/02/2022 Shorted S&P500 (SP500 on igIndex) via another DFB Spreadbet at 4315, equivalent to about 10% of Long Portfolio, so now about 40% hedged. Stoploss at 4620 on an End of Day, Manual Trigger, basis and will cost me 0.7% of Long Portfolio Value if hit (hopefully I will close bets way before). That feels about enough hedging now and I am looking for clear signals to close the Shorts and go 100% Long again.
18/02/2022 Closed (Sold) half of the Long Spreadbet position I have in MPAC at 534p. I am still a big fan of this company and I have about 7/8% of my Total Portfolio value in it, which is still a lot. With the current mood of the markets I am not happy with such a big over-exposure as I had, especially on a Long Spreadbet position, which is of course leveraged. I still have a large Spreadbet position equivalent to about 2.8% of my Long Portfolio value, but I am a lot more comfortable than I was. MPAC has results due on the 18th March I think and if they disappoint, then the Shares will be spanked hard and that would be painful with a large leveraged position. I learnt my lesson on Paypal PYPL where I was very overweight on the Long Spreadbet, relative to my other long Spreadbets, and I don't like repeating clear errors if they are avoidable. I have held MPAC for many years and the 2 Spreadbets I closed were opened in 2013 !! They were first opened as Molins MLIN. I banked a Profit equivalent to 1.7% of Long Portfolio value and it was a return of 190% but because these positions were leveraged, the Return on Capital is about 865%. However, that does not paint the full picture because over 8 years or so, there will have been sizeable Interest Charges that eat at that Profit. I probably had some Dividends in the early years which offset some charges. Selling these positions frees up a nice chunk of cash that was previously used as Margin Deposit, and along with the Hedges I have in place, this gives me a lot more capacity to cope with any falls in the wider markets.
18/02/2022 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) a bit more at 4338 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 11% of Long Portfolio Value so I am now 30% Hedged. With the Ukraine situation getting more concerning and with Markets clearly weak, I wanted more protection over the long weekend which includes President's Day in the US. My Stop is the same because this is easier at 4620, which will cost me 0.75% of Long Portfolio Value if hit; but my hope will be to close that out before it reaches the Stop, the Stop is really a 'backstop' measure. 30% seems a nice level of Hedging and at the most I would go up to 40%, so I will see how things look next week. If Support from that nasty Monday we had a few weeks ago fails, that would be a clear sign to Short more.
17/02/2022 Shorted S&P500 at 4378 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to about 11% of my Long Portfolio Value and I am now a shade under 20% Hedged. My Stop is the same as the one below at 4620 with a manual trigger and on an EOD Close basis. Keeping the same Stop simplifies things although of course I could have done a slightly lower one. If the Stop is hit, it will cost me 0.6% of my Long Portfolio Value. The Ukraine situation is as messy as anything and I don't like how Bulls have been handed excellent opportunities to push the markets up, but they have failed miserably. This shows weakness. Today we had a Bearish MACD Cross and the 13/21 Day EMAs have been bearish for ages and an RSI of 42 on the S&P500 leaves a lot of room to drop. The Nasdaq is still quite highly valued despite the falls, and the S&P500 is a slightly 'slower' way to play this trend. I will see how things go next week, but it would not be a huge shock if I have to short a little more. I have mentioned on Twitter a lot how I have a concern we will not see a change in this seemingly relentless soggy market, until we have a proper 'Capitulation Event' where we have a really horrible day which finally takes out the last Bulls and the Markets can 'clear' and start to steadily move up.
14/02/2022 Shorted S&P500 at 4404 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 7.5% of my Long Portfolio. Markets are soggy and I want some Hedge to offset the damage if they fall more and the S&P500 seems a good choice because it should be 'slower' than the Nasdaq which might be a good one to short but has the disadvantage that it moves like a whippet. Interestingly the FTSE100 still looks pretty good so I am not shorting on the 'Index Spreadbet Test System' (yet). My Stoploss is at 4620 with a manual trigger based on the End of Day Prices. If the Stop gets hit it will cost me 0.4% of the Long Portfolio Value but I hope to close it before it gets hit if the Spreadbet is no longer required. I think in the very short term we might see a bounce but any such moves up are likely to fizzle out and I might get the opportunity to Short more. I wanted to get a small short on because if you don't, you can find the markets tank leaving you unhedged. I could have used the FTSE250 to Short on but that has much higher margin requirements (10% I think as opposed to just 5% on the S&P500) and you cannot place positions or amend them outside of market hours; I find that awkward with my health considerations and I prefer to trade calmly out of hours.
7/02/2022 INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - added £2 a Point to the permanent Long Spreadbet on the FTSE100 via a Mar22 Spreadbet at 7525. The Exposure goes up to £37626 because the total Long is now £5 a Point and this means the 5% Margin is £1881; the 15% Cash Buffer is £5644 and the Total Cash needed is £7525 but for simplicity I added £2000 fresh Cash to the Account so the Total Value is now £7612. I have now in effect zerod the Test System for ease and this means I will go forwards with £7612 as the Value of the Account as if this was January 1st. By doing this I have in effect 'banked' a Profit of about £1200 since starting the Test System just over 7 months ago and this is a gain of 28% ROCE. The Emergency Buffer is 10% so that is £3762 which I will make sure I always have available in my Bank Account for swift access if I need to. I was tempted to go to £6 a Point total but I am still being a little cautious with the chop in the markets and I am happy to go forwards with the Long Exposure of £37626.
3/02/2022 Bought just over £2500 of Primary Health Properties PHP at 143.5p to add to my existing position in my Income Portfolio. I have owned this some time and been pretty impressed with the progress and I like the combination of something that appears very 'safe' but with some growth potential from more acquisitions in UK and Ireland and also there is a very nice dividend, which SharePad is showing as a forward Dividend Yield of 4.3% rising to 4.5%, and there is a good history of steadily raising the dividends. This is now up to 11% of my Income Portfolio but I don't hold any elsewhere (quite often I will hold something in my 'Normal' ISA as well as in the Income Portfolio), and I feel it is a sort of bedrock position in the Income Portfolio, due to its likely safe and reliable aspects. PHP buys Medical Centres and the Rent is in effect paid by government and some is paid by Pharmacies and suchlike that sit alongside. It has been falling quite a bit from its highs recently and this seems quite a good time to be buying. The risks are really around the Premium to NAV but in time it should 'grow' into that and with Interest Rates rising, this could mean the Dividend appears less attractive in relative terms, and the Discount Rate used to calculate NAV etc. will be a drag as Interest Rates rise. I am taking the view that much of this is priced in already. That has pretty much invested all of the cash that was sat in my Account from Dividend Payments received, and I am happy to now be getting revenue streams from all the money in the Portfolio. Reinvestment is a key part of driving returns from a Portfolio like this.
20/01/2022 Bought Appreciate Group APP at 26p in a starter position, about 1.5% of my Portfolio. I have tracked these for a long time and was very happy to see a strong Update from them yesterday and it just looks really cheap. SharePad has them on a forward p/e off 8.3 falling to 6.4 and if you strip out the cash pile, it is even cheaper. It also is expected to pay a Dividend of 6.5% rising to 8.2%. These guys do Xmas Hampers (used to be Park Group) and Xmas Savings schemes but everything now Digital and that reduces costs and opens opportunities to market the products better etc. In addition they do Gift Vouchers which companies also use for incentive schemes and bonuses; and this side of the business could really benefit from Digital only. The management is fairly new and I like that but the chart is a bit weak so it might drop some more and of course they need to execute well. C19 was difficult for them and it is worth realising that H1 is always loss-making due to the Xmas Hampers distorting the picture; but that might change in time as other bits grow. They also announced a deal with Paypoint recently. With patience I think this could gain 200% and I am targeting 75p.
20/01/2022 Sold Clinigen CLIN at 908p for normal shares and 904p on a spreadbet position. This was a recent takeover situation and the Offer Price was raised a couple of days ago, and maybe there will be another increase but I desperately wanted to buy APP so I decided to sell and free the cash. I have taken a small loss on this around 10% or so in total, but I feel happy because it got me out of a difficult situation after initially buying QP. Quantum Pharma years ago and that went badly wrong. At least I had a few dividends on the trip.
8/12/2021 Closed FTSE250 Short Spreadbet at 23359, taking a loss equivalent to 0.3% of Portfolio value. I put the Short on as the start of protection against a potential big drop due to the Omicron Variant, and it has turned out that such insurance is not needed. I have taken the hit but of course it was a Hedge so I have actually gained on my Stocks anyway. This swift action has moved me back to pretty much 100% Long.
26/11/2021 Shorted FTSE250 via a DFB Spreadbet at 22724 equivalent to 10% of my Long Exposure. We had quite a shake out today with the panic around a 'New Variant' and the Index Charts have given some fairly concerning signals, but we mustn't panic too much and it could just be a function of end of month and skimpy volumes on the day after Thanksgiving. I wanted some Hedge protection for my Spreadbet Account and considered Shorting the FTSE100 to a small extent in the Test System, but decided against it for now. I have placed my Stoploss at 23740 and this is on an EOD (End of Day) basis with a manual Trigger (i.e. no fixed Stop with my Broker). If the Stop is activated, it will cost me 0.5% of Portfolio Value. If I need more Hedge I can add it next week and if the Hedge isn't required, I can turn it off quite swiftly. The FTSE250 is a pain because the Deposit Margin requirement is 10% and it can only be traded during market hours (the FTSE100 etc is just 5% and trades out of hours), but I have learnt the expensive and annoying way that the FTSE250 would match my Long Portfolio of Spreadbets better.
26/10/2021 Bought more Serica Energy SQZ via a Long Spreadbet at 242p on the Jun 22 contract (these work out a little cheaper than Daily Funded Bets DFBs and I have all my Spreadbet positions set to 'Automatic Rollover'). This was equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value if I had bought as normal Shares and now I have exposure totalling 2.5%. I wanted to increase my exposure to Oil and Gas and the Chart looks good on SQZ with a 'Bull Pennant' formation setting up and I decided to go a bit early before the Breakout. My reasons for buying SQZ are outlined below and you can hear me talking about them on the most recent Podcast TPI 60.
18/10/2021 Bought about 1.5% of my Portfolio Value in Serica Energy SQZ at 231p. I have tracked this one for a while and thought it was doing quite well but was not overly excited about buying more Gas & Oil. Anyway, it has recently become rather too obvious that the UK Government and other Western Governments have totally ballsed up on Energy Policy and have failed to invest in Oil and Gas whilst, at the same time, going for unreliable and inconsistent 'Green' Sources like Wind and Solar, which are useless on a still, cloudy, day. This means we are facing the 'Energy Crunch' as the transition to 'Net Zero' occurs and can only mean high Gas/Oil prices and they could easily go much higher than they are now. SQZ is 90% Gas and bought the BKR Fields in the North Sea which are currently producing and they also have several exploration and development options so there is potential excitement on top of the Cashflows from BKR. What really tweaked my interest was the Peel Hunt 'Cash Profit' forecast (EBITDA approx) for 2021 of £287m and 2022 of £362m - that's nuts cheap against a Market Cap of £618m today. OK, there is some risk around the forecasts on both Production levels and the Gas/Oil Price but it is the case that Analysts are generally on the low and conservative side. SharePad has a Forward P/E of 3 and clearly this is extremely low even leaving a 'Margin of Safety'. There are risks around production being smooth and exploration work being successful and of course the Oil/Gas Price could fall; but that is unlikely to be much in my view. I wanted more Gas/Oil exposure and hold RDSB but didn't want more, and I have DEC but I am a bit nervous to add because Bears keep having a swipe at it although I think they are talking nonsense. SQZ should pay juicy dividends in time and is currently in a Net Cash position.
18/10/2021 Sold French Connection FCCN at 29.59p after a Takeover bid that took seemingly forever. I have held FCCN through a lot of thin and not much thick, for many many years and always thought a takeover would emerge but was hoping it would have been before C19 hit and when there was potentially a lot more value. Thankfully the damage is small and I paid 61p for them but the hit today was only about 0.4% of my Portfolio Value (ok, it was a higher hit on the Portfolio value back when I bought them !!), and I think I took a hit when I closed a Spreadbet some time ago. Glad it's gone though.
14/10/2021 Closed both S&P500 Shorts I had running at 4444, taking a Loss equivalent to 0.4% of my Long Exposure Value. I am happy with this because I have got out well before the Stoploss which of course saves me dosh. It is not an easy call to make and I might be wrong, but I can of course turn on the Shorts again if I see the need to Hedge. In addition, because I have closed all these Hedges, I have freed up lots of Deposit Margin Cash so I have plenty of buffer if Markets do wobble again. It is not a clear cut case where I need to close my Shorts this time, but I fear we will see more gains in coming days and I am reluctant to let the Trades run over the weekend which could lead to me losing a lot more on them. I am now pretty much 100% Long although I do have a little bit of Cash to deploy and might add to something I already have.
13/10/2021 Closed both remaining Shorts I had on the FTSE100 at 7166 because I don't see the need for them now. This has resulted in a Loss equivalent to 0.45% of my Long Portfolio Exposure which is a small price to pay for the Insurance of Hedging and I am pleased because I have closed out long before they hit my Stoploss, which obviously would have cost me more. In general, I try to get out of Trades that are going 'wrong' before the Stop gets hit. I still have 2 S&P500 Shorts running so I have a small bit of Hedging, around 20%.
13/10/2021 NEW INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Closed the FTSE100 Shorts I had on at 7166 taking a Loss of £152 which is 0.7% on the Initial Long Exposure of £21,324 and 3.5% on the Starting Capital of £4,316 - this is very acceptable to enable the Leverage to be used and to control the risk. I am pleased I have closed the Shorts before they hit the Stoploss, because it reduces the cost and now I don't feel the need for the Hedging. The Test is now 100% Long again. This pullback has been a useful test of the Hedging and it has proved fairly good I think. I can Short again if I see the Signals that tell me I need to.
11/10/2021 Shorted S&P500 a bit more (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 4356, equivalent to about 10% of Long Portfolio Exposure and I am now about 20% Hedged via the S&P500 and another 20% on the FTSE100, which I am very near to closing as it has not been working as I would like. Stoploss is at 4560 the same as my other Short (that is simpler) and if hit it will cost 0.5% of my Portfolio Value. The Stop is not a 'hard' one with my broker and I will operate on a Manual, End of Day (EOD) basis. It looks like the S&P500 is turning down from the 50 Day Moving Average and the 13/21 Day EMAs are in Bear mode. I will review the FTSE100 tomorrow night.
7/10/2021 Closed the FTSE100 Short I opened first in the current wobbles at 7081, taking a tiny loss of about the price of a pub meal !! I have in effect dialled down my Hedging from about 45% of my Long Portfolio, down to about 30% and still have the Short on the S&P500. It is a difficult one but I feel the Bears have not really managed to push the markets down hard and the strength in Oil has supported the FTSE100. By dialling back my level of Hedging, I am still well placed whatever way things play out, and I have plenty of Cash to soak up any further drops. I have not changed my Hedge on the Test System.
28/9/2021 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via DFB Spreadbet at 4356, equivalent to 10% of Long Portfolio, so now in total I am 45% Hedged. I am being careful not to overdo the Shorts, but I might add a little more to this S&P500 Short if I see the right signals. Need to be careful because it is the end of the month which can distort things a bit and the tech weighting in the S&P500 can cause rapid 'snap back' rallies. Stoploss put at 4560 and this will be operated manually on an End of Day (EOD) Close basis. If the stop gets hit, it will cost me 0.5% of Portfolio Value so no big deal, and I will manage with a view to closing out early if the markets start to perk up.
23/9/2021 Bought more Telecom Plus TEP at 1142p in my Income Portfolio, around £2500 worth and it is now 10% of that Portfolio. I actually thought I held in my WD40 Portfolio as well but I actually only seem to have a long running Long Spreadbet on it. I am a big fan of TEP and held for many years, and I expect 5.2% Dividend Yield next year and 5.4% the year after (according to SharePad forecasts). This is a meaty yield and I wanted to 'lock' it in and I also expect growing Dividends in the future and potential for Capital growth; TEP has an excellent track record and has been listed for maybe 20 years and Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader, holds mountains of them and he is a Distributor for their services. Recent moves into Water, Insurance and Boiler replacement (and Heat Pumps !!) are very interesting. I used £1500 that was already sat in my Account from the steady drip, drip, drip of Dividends (I had to add another £1000 to it but I already 'owed' that Cash to my Income Portfolio, if that makes sense). I find this method far superior than just operating a DRIP scheme.
14/9/2021 NEW INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Shorted the FTSE100 at 7026 via a DFB Spreadbet and crucially using the 'Force Open' button on the Deal Ticket. £0.5 a Point so now got £1.0 a Point Short so 33% Hedged. Deposit for the Short was £175 and the 'Cash Available' (Cash Buffer) in the Account is now £2641, so there is plenty of ability to soak up any falls and off course now the effective FTSE100 Long is £2 a Point not £3 a Point. Stoploss at 7240 just like all my other FTSE100 Shorts, because it just keeps things simple. Operation on a Manual basis and depends on the EOD Close. Of course the 'Emergency Buffer' is parked in reserve and waiting.
14/9/2021 Shorted FTSE100 at 7026 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to about 10% of Portfolio Value, so now in total about 35% hedged. Same Stop as before at 7240 on a Manual, EOD Close basis.
9/9/2021 NEW INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - Shorted the FTSE100 at 7001 to Hedge my permanent Long FTSE100 position (see the entry from 15/6/2021) at £0.5 per Point (this is the smallest I can do) and equivalent to 16% of the Long Exposure in the Test. I had to tick the 'Force Open' option - this is vital and I nearly forgot !! The Margin needed was £175 and it is equivalent to about £3500 Short (against roughly £21000 on the Long). I have put my Stop at 7240 as per the Shorts I have in my normal Portfolio (see below) and this will be operated on a Manual, End of Day (EOD), basis. If the Stop is hit, it will cost 0.5% of the Long Exposure which is about 2.7% Return on the Capital Employed (the Margin plus the Cash Buffer) - I will try to close it early obviously once I decide a Hedge is no longer needed. Unnecessary Hedges will detract from the Returns of the System. The FTSE100 has dropped a bit but the Test System still has plenty of Cash in the account as the Cash Buffer and of course I have the Emergency Buffer as well. I might Hedge more if I see the need to.
9/9/2021 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more at 7001 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 10% of Portfolio Value, so I am now about 24% Hedged (and I have 5% in Cash). I have been nervous about the Autumn for a while and I sense we are starting to see a drop on the way, and I am protecting my Capital. The FTSE100 triggered a 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross today and that is often an extremely good signal. My Stop is the same as the other FTSE100 Short I have (see the entry just below) at 7240 and if this is hit it will cost me 0.35% of my Portfolio Value (that is the price of insurance). As usual I will operate the Stop on a Manual, EOD, basis and I will aim to close it earlier if I decide a Hedge is no longer needed.
19/8/2021 Shorted FTSE100 at 7072 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 13% of my Long Exposure in total. Stoploss at 7240 on a Manual EOD (End of Day) Close basis (no Stop Order with broker) and I have guessed a Target at 6500 but that is meaningless really. This is an initial Short to get my Hedging started and if we get more signs of a big drop coming, then I will add to this Short and maybe go up to 40% Short maximum. As yet I have done nothing with the Index Spreadbet System Test. As discussed on Podcasts, September is the worst month historically and the Autumn is often a wobbly period. We have had a stunning rise this year and the Markets are ripe for profit taking. If I am wrong I will soon Close this Short and I am still 85% or so Long.
11/8/2021 Sold all the Shares I had in Cambria Automobiles CAMB at 80.3p, after it looked like the Takeover at 82p was finally settled. This is very disappointing because I thought CAMB was a very well run business but the catch was that the CEO actually bought it himself !! I am certain they got it cheap and you only need to look at how other Car Retailers have done since the CAMB bid was announced to see that we wuz robbed. Ah, well, it is what it is and I can't be bothered to get too emotional about it. In fact, I actually had some rather good news tonight when consulting my Spreadsheets. I thought I had made just a tiny gain of 15% plus Dividends but it turns out I am actually up 55% with the Dividends on top. I have held since 2014 so that is not amazing but I guess it could have been a lot worse. I rarely wait for the Cash to arrive through the official route (it can take forever sometimes) and I decided to just sell them in the Market and to add to my huge Cash Pile. I now have about 6% Cash which is a lot for me but I am in no rush to buy anything, although I am stalking one Stock. I am nervous about the Autumn so I am happy to keep building Cash. Oh, I didn't mention that I had already sold some CAMB (presumably on a TopChop) a few years ago and banked some Profit back then - so the actual involvement with CAMB was ok really.
4/8/2021 TopChopped about 1/3 of the Shares I hold in Water Intelligence WATR at 1147p. I am still happy to keep holding the rest but I am now down to 4% of my Portfolio Value and I am more comfortable at this level. WATR is in essence quite a High Risk AIM Stock and for all its attractions, I need to stay calm and rational and always consider Risk - especially with Autumn not far off and this can be a difficult period for Markets. I am now about 4% Cash in my Portfolio and I banked a cracking profit of 780% on my Buy Price of 130p, in about 3 years. I am obviously very happy with that. I do not have a Long Spreadbet on WATR - from memory igIndex didn't do it, or the Spread was nuts or I had no Cash. I am in no rush to buy anything or TopUp something else - I might even take the Cash out of my Account as I want more Cash in general.
28/7/2021 TopChopped the Long Spreadbet I have on Pets at Home PETS again at 502p. I am nervous of having such a large leveraged position going into results tomorrow and I decided to slice a bit more off. It's had a great run in recent days and this meant my position got really out of kilter with my other Long Spreadbets. I sold about 1.5% of total Portfolio Value but still have about 5% of my Portfolio in PETS in a mix of Shares and Long Spreadbets and I am happy to keep holding the rest. I have held since 2014 but got a pretty nice Profit out of it; a return of about 170% on my Buy Price at 184p and because it was leveraged, the Return on the Margin Deposit used was 850% which is really sweet. These numbers ignore the Interest Charges but the Dividends I have received will have offset this.
19/7/2021 TopChopped the Long Spreadbet holding I have in Pets at Home PETS at 449p, equivalent to about 1% of my total Long exposure (Shares and Spreadbets) and now got about 4.5% of Portfolio in PETS, which I am very happy to keep hold of. I wanted to reduce my overall Long Spreadbet exposure as the Markets are a bit wobbly and the Autumn is often a difficult period. This lowers leveraged exposure and frees up a small bit of Cash, which can be useful when Markets drop. I Opened back in 2014 amazingly, so I have held for 7 years but it has been quite a trip with PETS looking in rough shape for a while, but it all worked out nicely. I paid 183p so that is a Profit of 145% on the Exposure and that is about 400% on the Margin required. Those numbers don't include the Interest Fees but that would be offset entirely by the Dividends I have received. Overall it turned out nicely and I am happier with my positioning now. Big fan of PETS though and not selling any more - if I had only held Shares, I might not have acted at all but Leverage stings when you fight it.
15/7/2021 TopChopped the Long Spreadbet I have on Paypal PYPL at 29921, to reduce Risk and to free up a small bit of Margin Deposit. I still like PYPL a lot but it has had a superb run up and the Valuation is now getting a bit stretched and with it being a Leveraged Position, I just felt it wise to lower my exposure a bit. I sold a chunk equivalent to about 2% of my Portfolio Total Exposure and still have about 3.5% in PYPL. I originally got PYPL (it was a spin-off from Ebay) at 3500 back in 2014 and this means I banked a Profit on Exposure of 755% over the 7 years and this is about a 1770% Return on Margin Deposit but that does not include a subtraction for Interest Charges - which I think were actually quite small. When the EU brought in the new ESMA Spreadbet Margin rule changes, I think existing Spreadbet Positions kept running with igIndex on the original, much lower, Margin requirement. Anyway, that was a nice investment and I still have exposure to PYPL and I had already closed part of the Position back in 2018.
8/7/2021 Sold Telit Communications TCM in a couple of my Share Accounts and as the Long Spreadbet I had. When I sold I thought I had taken a small Loss following the Takeover Situation which looks like it is a 'done deal' and I don't want to wait around - I would rather have the Cash now. For the Shares I got 224p and the Spreadbet was 223p, both strangely higher than the Takeover Price of 220p; and it turns out that I have held these forever and according to my spreadsheets, I first bought back in 2014 and the Spreadbet was opened at 85p so that is a nice Return; but of course I have held for 7 years so with the 'time value of money' and the Interest Charges, it is far from ideal. Unleveraged it is a gain of about 160% but with the leverage it is around 800% (but 3% a year comes off the 160% for the Interest Charges). I also had an earlier Spreadbet Long which I Closed back in 2014 or something and I made 450% on that. On the Shares, I lost about 10% but over everything, I actually banked a Profit equivalent to my Portfolio now of about 1% of Portfolio Value (of course for many of those 7 years my Portfolio was a lot smaller so the true Return is arguably higher). However, I cut it, this is a disappointment and my biggest frustration is that my original rationale for buying was spot on but things went badly off the rails and it is only in recent years that new management has come in and sorted the mess out. Of course, the Takeover has come just as things were really looking rosy for TCM with the rollout of 5G and the Internet of Things IoT finally becoming closer to reality - and without doubt they have stolen TCM on the cheap. Ah, well, there is not much I can do about it and it is just yet another of the trails and tribulations of Long Term Investing. I now have a nice chunk of Cash but with Autumn not far away, I am not in a rush to deploy it yet. If anything, I will be buying more of a Stock or two that I already have.
24/6/2021 Bought 1% of my Portfolio Value of Sopheon SPE at 920p, using the Cash freed up by selling some KCT. I have been stalking this for ages and I intend to buy more in time. I discussed on a TPI Podcast a while back but keep getting distracted and looking at other Stocks. I have bought a small 'Starter Position' to get my foot in the door because otherwise I will forget about it and buy something else. These chaps do Innovation Management Software called 'Accolade' and it seems quite unique to me and they are winning loads of Contracts and even got Approval with the US Naval Services Agency yesterday which opens up the rest of the US Department of Defence. Being software there is high operational gearing and Profits should rise fast as Sales rise. It doesn't look 'cheap' but they have a big pile of Cash. Big worry is they might get taken-over and that would be annoying because I think in a few years it has the potential to rise many times. The Spread is wide and it is illiquid but with patience I hope to buy more at nice prices.
24/6/2021 TopChopped Kin & Carta KCT at 281p making about 160% on my Average Buy Price. This was previously St. Ives SIV which was a Printing business but the shift to Digital attracted me. It got in a bit of a mess and new US Management came in and they have done a superb job and of course the C19 Crisis and the shift to Digital and need for Transformation played to their hands. I sold about 1% of my Portfolio Value but still have 5% in them (that includes about 1% as a Long Spreadbet). It has momentum but the valuation is getting stretched (quite a high Forward P/E) and I decided to de-risk a bit. I am happy to run the rest but will be likely slicing more at some point. I've held for a few years but I think I bought more once the new management was in and the Share Price was rising again. Another Dog that has become a nice winner !!
15/6/2021 NEW INDEX SPREADBET TEST SYSTEM - the required FTSE100 Long Position has been Opened at 7108 on the Sep21 Contract at £3 a Point. This gives Long Exposure of £21,324 (£3 x 7108) which has tied up 5% Deposit Margin of £1066 and the 10% Cash Buffer should be £2132. I started the new Account with igIndex and put £3250 into it, so I now have £2162 in my 'Cash Available' (there is a small Loss already because of the Spread between the Buy and Sell Price) which is just over the 10% I need for the Cash Buffer. The Emergency Buffer of 10% is the same at £2132 which I have kicking around in my Current Bank Account. The FTSE100 Long now runs 'forever' as per the Rules and the most important thing is for me now to leave it alone and just focus on the Charts and look for Signals regarding when I need to place my First Short to Hedge (15% of Exposure). The art is not to Hedge too often because that will drag on Yearly Returns if I do not need them. If you see my 'Stocks & Markets' Blog from Sunday 13th June on WD2, this has a description of my New Index Spreadbet System.
24/5/2021 Closed Nasdaq 100 Short Spreadbet at 13655, taking a Loss equivalent to 0.2% of Portfolio Value. Again I am very pleased to have Closed the Position early before hitting the Stop and thereby limiting the damage - that is the key to Hedging I am certain. Again like the FTSE100 below, I get the sense that the Nasdaq is merely consolidating and I am not happy fighting the Market. The 13/21 Day EMAs are still Bearish but it is very near a Bull Cross and it looks highly likely it will happen. I can always slam another Short on fast if I feel the need.
24/5/2021 Closed FTSE100 Short Spreadbet I had running at 7059, taking a Loss equivalent to just 0.1% of my Portfolio Value - that is fine and I Closed it before the Stop was hit. As I mentioned in my Blog at the Weekend, I was not happy being Short in particular when the 13/21 Day EMAs were in Bull Mode and of course it is very quick to add another Hedge if I was to get worried. If anything, it seems to me that Markets are merely consolidating before another likely push up - although Summer is often pretty dull.
18/5/2021 Shorted Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 on igIndex) at 13188 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to 6% of Long Portfolio Value and 15% of Long Spreadbet Exposure. Wanted more Hedge and keeping it small with the option to add more if I see the signs in the Charts. Nasdaq can be very fast moving so I have kept it small. Stoploss at 13825 on an EOD (End of Day) Close basis and with a Manual Trigger. If Stop hit it costs me 0.3% of Portfolio Value. My total Short Position with the small FTSE100 Short I have is about 16%.
13/5/2021 Shorted FTSE100 via DFB Spreadbet at 6972 equivalent to 10% of my Long Portfolio Value and about 25% of my Long Spreadbets exposure. Markets a bit wobbly so I decided to put a small Hedge on and if it gets worse I can add more protection. Stoploss at 7180 on an EOD (End of Day) Close basis and this would cost me 0.3% of Portfolio Value if hit (however, I tend to close out before the Stops get hit). My Stop is operated on a Manual Trigger - not firm with my Broker. My Target is 6600 but really I will just run the Position until I see a need to Close it and get full exposure to a bounce.
5/4/2021 Closed Nasdaq100 Short Spreadbet at 13595 after getting Stopped Out. My Stop was at 13330 but I gave it a little grace on Thursday Night (just before Easter Long Weekend) and on Monday it kept moving up strongly. Anyway, I followed the discipline and Closed it manually, which means a loss of 0.2% of my Portfolio Value - which is miniscule. Fortunately I kept the Position really tiny and as it happens, that was a good decision. In effect this was a partial Hedge for my Paypal PYPL holding and my holding in Polar Capital Technology Trust PCT, so I should more than make up for the loss from gains on those holdings. I find the strength in Tech quite mad but no point arguing with the Markets. See my 'Stocks & Markets' blog on WD2 from last night titled 'Giving no Quarter' for more information about the Nasdaq.
25/3/2021 Closed French Connection FCCN and Superdry SDRY Long Spreadbets as a bit of housekeeping because igIndex are no longer going to offer these Stocks and will automatically close my positions at the end of March. I decided to get them closed before this because they are tiny positions and I prefer to free up the Cash, partly because igIndex had gone to 100% Margin Deposit on both of these which is inconvenient !! I still hold in small size as Normal Shares but both have been frustrating holdings and I'm not too stressed about lowering my exposure to them. I suspect FCCN might eventually get a Takeover bid but the drawn out on/off possibility has been quite infuriating. On SDRY, it was perhaps starting to recover after the problems of previous management, but then C19 came along and of course Clothing Retail is not the ideal place to be if you have 'bricks'. Of course in practice I could buy more Shares of these to make up for the closing of the Spreadbets, but I don't have any spare cash and to be honest, if I did, I would prefer to put it into many other Stocks I hold. At the end of the day, all our Investment decisions are to an extent about allocating scarce resources (Cash) across the Stocks in our Portfolios. On FCCN I opened the Spreadbet at 42p but I sold at 10p so I took a Loss of about 52% on the Exposure and it was equivalent to just 0.15% of my Portfolio Value. Sadly on SDRY there was a lot more pain - I had opened at 1324p and closed at 260p taking a hit on the Exposure of 80%; and it was equivalent to 1% of my Portfolio value.
18/3/2021 Shorted Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 on igIndex) at 12811 on a DFB Spreadbet but in very small size at just 3% of my Long Portfolio. The Nasdaq can whipsaw viciously so need to be careful, but I might add more if I get the right sort of signals. Looks to me like Nasdaq is very weak and could be starting a proper Major Downtrend Channel. I have put a Stoploss at 13330 but that will operate with a Manual Trigger (no fixed Order with my broker) and based on an EOD (End of Day) Close. Of course I may close the Position before the Stop and if the Stop is hit, then it will cost me just 0.1% of Portfolio Value - so it is a very controlled and sensible Trade. My Target is potentially 10600 but I will play it as it comes. igIndex do not offer a Spreadbet on the Nasdaq Composite Index.
16/3/2021 Bought more Aviva AV. via a Long Spreadbet at 397p on the Sept21 Contract. I bought a Position equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value and now have about 3% in AV. It just looks very cheap as per my comments and Charts in the 'Stocks & Markets' Blog I published on Sunday 14th March 2021 on WD2. AV. plan to return at least 30% of Market Cap to Shareholders as Cash Dividends or Share Buybacks over next 3 years. It has been retrenching to just UK and Ireland and Canada and selling off lots of business units in other countries - hence the Cash pile. On top of that, the backdrop for Insurance Companies looks good with Premium Rates on the rise.
12/3/2021 Closed remaining FTSE100 Short Spreadbets I had at 6800, taking a Loss equivalent to 0.4% of Portfolio Value. Markets have been buoyant this week and the wobble we had at the end of February seems to have relented, and I don't want to run Shorts too far if I don't need to. In truth, I can quickly Short again if I sense a need to Hedge. I am happy that I have taken action quickly and kept the Losses from Hedges very small (of course in reality I have made good gains on my Portfolio anyway, so Hedges are just helping to manage Risk and to mean I can run much higher Leverage than I could without the Hedges).
10/3/2021 Closed half the FTSE100 Short Spreadbets I had at 6734, taking a Loss equivalent to 0.2% of my Portfolio Value so it is a small hit. Not happy with how the Trades were going and wanted to lower my Hedge so now down to about 12% Hedged and might take the rest off very soon. One of the main drivers was that the 13/21 Day EMAs have been in 'Bull Mode' for a few days and I do not like doing the opposite of what this excellent Signal tells me to do.
4/03/2021 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more via a DFB Spreadbet at 6601 at the same size as the one below, and now I am 25% Hedged against my Long Portfolio of Shares (and Long Spreadbets). Stoploss at 6820 as before and will be operated manually by me on an EOD Close basis. If Stop hit, it will cost 0.4% of Portfolio Value (but of course it is a Hedge so it is sort of different as I gain on the Longs). US took a big dive today, especially the Nasdaq, and it seems very likely they will fall more. If that happens, expect our Markets to get hit; even though our Market is relatively good value. Oil was strong today but note it couldn't hold the High and I doubt it can rise much if everything else is wobbly. I will keep a close eye on things and I can take Hedges off fast if I sense a need. There is US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday afternoon and that may cause some swings, but often we get falls on Monday morning when Markets are soggy and I wanted more Hedge to be ready.
3/03/2021 Shorted FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 6626, equivalent to 12% of my Portfolio Value. Wanted some Hedge Protection because there are various signs of weakness and this time of year is particularly iffy. See the 'Stocks & Markets' Blog I did at the weekend dated 28th March for background. I have put a Stoploss at 6820 and it will trigger by me manually on an End of Day (EOD) Close basis if hit and that would cost me 0.35% of Portfolio Value (not much). Depending on the next few days, I might Short more if important Support fails.
17/02/2021 Bought more Duke Royalty DUKE at 30p. I now have 2% of my Portfolio in them and I decided to move after the good news yesterday of a new Royalty Partner/Deal and they have reiterated that more Partners are going to come soon - which will obviously add to growth. With near 7% Dividend here and having managed well through the C19 crisis, I am pretty impressed with what is going on. I expect Simon Thompson to be writing them up in coming days and that may help the Share Price short term as well. I talked a fair bit about DUKE on the latest Podcast, TPI 42 - go to my other Website WD2 and you can find the Podcast there under the appropriate page.
17/02/2021 Sold Live Company Group LVCG Shares at just over 4p, taking a Loss of about 90%. However, I was lucky because I knew this was highly speculative and risky and the hit to my Portfolio was only 0.4% because I had a tiny Position. Very disappointing how this turned out because the products definitely have potential but the Corporate Governance issues around how the business is managed are pretty shocking and the loss of several Non-Execs in recent days just exacerbates the sense that Management here are not running the company in the best interests of Shareholders. Obviously the C19 situation hasn't helped but they were struggling even before that. I am just pleased to remove it from my Portfolio so I don't need to see the damn thing all the time !!
15/02/2021 Closed FTSE100 Short Spreadbet I had running at 6764, crystallizing a Loss equivalent to about 0.3% of Long Portfolio. Now got no Hedges and about 99% Long. Big jump up on Vaccine positivity in the Markets today and FTSE100 got up above 50 Day MA and did a Bullish MACD Cross and a 13/21 Day EMA Bull Cross looks pretty certain tomorrow. I am still very cautious as things seem far too easy at the moment and there are almost certainly many Bubbles forming up. I am happy with my stance as I can quickly Hedge again if I need to and it is the usual seasonal pattern to get some drama in March/April and there is way too much euphoria and celebrating going on (not to mention a huge influx of newer Traders who are always welcome but often it signifies trouble ahead).
9/02/2021 Bought some DUKE Duke Royalty Shares at 29.6p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value as a Starter Position and I will likely buy more in time. I really like this company and had a long chat with the CEO at an Investor Show some time ago (must have been because with C19 we haven't been allowed out for yonks) and I was really impressed. They do Lending to small but established Companies but it is unusual because they use a Royalty Model where the payments for the Loan depend on Revenue and rise and fall in line. It has many benefits for the Borrowers and I am extremely impressed by how well DUKE has sailed through the C19 crisis and my main worry before was how the Royalty Model would work in an Economic Downturn. DUKE's performance during the crisis has calmed my concerns and I am very happy to be buying now. It has 7% Dividend Yield which is juicy and a recent Trading Update showed they are back on the path to growth and DUKE has Cash for more Royalty Investments. Simon Thompson tipped this as one of his 'Bargain Shares' in 'Investors' Chronicle' so in the short term the Price might be a bit elevated but at 29.6p it is still looking very cheap and I think these could easily be back at 50p if the mood in general improves. I have just bought small for now but if the price drops back etc., I can buy more.
9/02/2021 Bought more BAR Brand Architeks at 139p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value so now got about 2% in them. If you look at the Entry on this page from the 9th December then I wrote a lot about why I like BAR and the main thing is how it reminds me of the MPAC Turnaround and with something like £18m Cash you are pretty much getting the Business of BAR for very little (Market Cap about £23m). I will probalby buy more of these as the story develops and if I have spare Cash. My Target here is at least 400p.
9/02/2021 Sold some TSTL Tristel Shares at 655p equivalent to about 2% of Portfolio Value. Still got about 4.5% of Portfolio in them and happy to keep holding but had a strong run up and I wanted to lower Risk and lock-in some Profit - and provide Cash to buy other stuff. TSTL has a great opportunity to expand especially in the US but the valuation looks stretched now and this of course brings risk. C19 and the need for sterilisation obviously plays to what TSTL does. Made a nice Profit - I think I bought some Shares as low as 44p so it's been a belter.
5/02/2021 Sold all AA. Shares and Spreadbets at 34p, taking a painful loss equivalent to about 2.5% of Portfolio Value. I think the hit is about 90% on my Buy Price which is nasty and it is disappointing how this turned out, although it was always clear that the Debt was massive and the AA management needed to work wonders to avoid the unfortunate outcome that ensued. With hindsight maybe I shouldn't have bought it but at the time I think it was very possible they could have succeeded, especially because the AA is one of the strongest Brands in the UK and has been under-utilised for decades. Where I particularly erred was in not selling once there was clear evidence that things were going wrong (the CEO punching another Director was a bit of a clue !!) - and in hindsight I knew the fragility that the Debt created and once things went off the rails, it was going to struggle whatever happened. Perhaps if the C19 Pandemic had not occured it might have limped on but that is unclear. On the plus side, my Diversification means that the hit from the AA has not prevented my Portfolio hitting new All Time Highs and making decent gains, so I will not beat myself up too much. AA eventually received a Takeover Offer and that is going through so rather than wait ages for the Cash, I decided to sell in the market and hopefully I will be using the Cash (and some reserves !!) to buy something next week.
2/02/2021 Closed most of the FTSE100 Shorts I had at 6541 and taken a very small loss equivalent to 0.15% of Portfolio Value. I have kept a FTSE100 Short equivalent to 6% of my Long Exposure. It is a difficult one with the 13/21 Day EMAs still bearish and with the ugly Candlestick from January, but most Major Indexes look pretty good and if they go up they could drag FTSE100 up also. Tomorrow Vodafone VOD and GlaxoSmithkline GSK have Results and if they are good they could push FTSE100 up. I am still cautious but leaning more towards Markets continuing to rise - even if makes little sense. I will review remaining Short in the coming days.
29/01/2021 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more at 6453 and 6426 with about 9% of my Portfolio Value in the first DFB Spreadbet and 6% in the other. Now I am about 20% Short and that seems a decent Hedge going into the weekend and depending on what happens next week, I may stick with that level of Hedge or increase a little bit. I am not happy with how the Market failed to bounce today and with Candlesticks for January looking pretty ugly and with potential 13/21 Day EMA Bear Crosses being triggered, the outlook for coming weeks doesn't look great.
27/01/2021 Shorted FTSE100 at 6506 via a DFB (Daily Funded Bet) Spreadbet equivalent to about 6% of Portfolio Value so only a tiny Starter Hedge for now. I am seeing some signs of weakness in the Index Charts (especially Monthly Candles) and clearly US Markets are daft over-valued and it has been too easy to make money on the Long tack. I wanted to go slightly larger but when I went to place my Trade the FTSE100 was down Out of Hours and I think it might be a little overdone (it might partly be a Dividend Adjustment). If it bounces, I will get chance to Short more. Stoploss at 6920 so a lot of wiggle room and I will operate on a Manual EOD (End of Day) Close basis - i.e. not a firm Order with my broker. If Stop hit I lose 0.4% of Portfolio Value but remember this is a Hedge so it is sort of different - it is more like me moving 6% of my Portfolio into Cash. Just a bit of insurance and in the next Podcast TPI 41 which we recorded this evening, we talked a lot about what the Markets were doing. It should be out for the weekend.
25/01/2021 Bought more Lok 'nStore LOK at 682p in the form of normal Shares, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value and now got 2% in LOK. Ideally I would like a Spreadbet on LOK but it is hugely illiquid and has a very wide Spread which is irritating, so I may just stick with Shares. LOK is all about growth of Storage Units as a sector and also the growth plans the company has. I think a Takeover might be a possibility as well. It doesn't look all that 'cheap' but with 2% Dividend and a strong growth outlook, I am very happy to tuck some away and be patient. I am working on a Blog about LOK.
25/01/2021 Sold all my McCarthy & Stone MCS Shares at 119.8p and Spreadbets at 119.4p, taking a chunky Loss equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Value. It is disappointing how this worked out but MCS had countless troubles in recent times and in all honesty getting a Takeover and solving a problem for me is not the worst thing to happen. I am moving the Cash onwards for better Stocks. The hit on my Shares was about 30% but I did pick up a few Dividends on the way.
7/01/2021 Bought more Vistry Group VTY via a DFB Spreadbet at 940p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value and I now have about 2.5% of my Portfolio in VTY. Housebuilders tend to do well in Calendar Year Q1 with an amazing record of something like 22 years out of 26 years seeing a rise. With VTY pretty low really, I suspect it could benefit nicely from this trend and I wanted to increase my exposure. I would assume most Housebuilders will do ok but VTY does seem quite good value with a Forecast Dividend of 4% in 2021 and a Forecast P/E of 8.6 which I suspect might be lower in reality as the EPS Forecasts etc. get beaten. I would have preferred to do a Quarterly Spreadbet but using the igIndex App I struggled to find VTY but I have some already so I clicked on that Position and just mucked about until I stumbled across a way to buy more but I could not figure out how to do a Quarterly. I find the DFBs are a little more expensive if you hold long-term but I would rather be in the Stock and ready for what could be a decent rise, rather than faffing about trying to save a small amount and ending up missing the Trade. VTY has a Trading Update on 12th January and I wanted to get in before that.
6/01/2021 Bought more Hipgnosis Songs Fund SONG but this time for my Income Portfolio and about £2,500 worth. I have held for some time in my Normal ISA and been extremely impressed and despite the youth of the Company, I have decided that I am happy to have it in my Income Portfolio and at the Price I paid of 123p it has a Dividend Yield around 4.1% which I think is pretty reliable and should grow over time. They buy Song Catalogues and have amassed an impressive collection including major famous Artists across Rock, Pop, Hip Hop, Country etc. They get the Rights to revenue streams from the Micro-payments that arise as Tunes are played on Digital Streaming Services and this is growing fast at around 8% a year. They have recently become more 'professional' with a proper business structure and they are starting to look at backing new artists with money and getting in early on the Song writing talents and creating new revenues from that source. I don't expect huge Capital Growth quickly, but it suits my Income Portfolio concept of do-nothing, low risk, reliable, steady Income Flows. I discussed SONG on a recent Podcast if you look through the list on the 'Twin Petes Investing Podcasts' page on WD2. At the moment I have 13 Stocks now in the Income Portfolio, and I want to push that up to 15.
22/12/2020 Sold part of my MPAC holding of normal shares at 431p after paying around 130p for them. As with my comments just below on GOCO, I want to boost my Cash and I have been uncomfortable with the size of my MPAC position which was as big as 12% of my Portfolio a few weeks ago and is down to about 9% or slightly less now. I still really like MPAC and see a lot more upside, but it is too risky to hold a small company with such a big position and it has been playing on my mind. I might sell some more and get it down in time but I am much happier now I have TopChopped it a bit. I made around 230% so that has been pretty nice.
22/12/2020 Sold GOCO normal Shares at 126p and Spreadbets at 126p. These are subject to a Takeover by Future Plc FUTR at a theoretical 129p but I would end up with FUTR Shares which I don't want, if I wait for the deal to progress the full path. With all the challenges facing the UK Economy and Lockdown looking pretty certain for the start of 2021, I want to build my Cash and also I want to take some out of my ISA for personal spending needs and perhaps for putting into my Income Portfolio at some point. On the Shares I paid about 76p average price so the gain was 66% in a few years and I think I had some 'free' shares in there because they span out of Esure ESUR Shares I held once. On the Spreadbets my Buy Price was 83p and the gain on Exposure was about 52% and on the Margin Deposit it is something like 200% ROCE. I am pretty happy how that turned out although it would have been interesting to see how GOCO did in time with the Autosave stuff and arguably FUTR are getting a very good buy.
21/12/2020 Closed both Long Spreadbets I had on the FTSE100 at 6354 and 6352. I hate making Decisions during the trading day but this was the monday after Boris had scrapped Xmas and now the French Authorities had shut the UK off from Lorries into and out and this didn't go down well with the Markets. I recognised a Loss of about 1% of my Portfolio but in the circumstances I think it is best to take Risk off the table and to be careful. Since opening the Longs they have not done much and there is clearly a risk that the Santa Rally is a bit subdued this year. Thing is, I am still pretty much 100% Long and if there is a Santa Rally I will make money anyway. I was just taking away my over-exposure if you like. I Closed these out way before my Stoploss and I am tending to see Stops as a last resort these days, which will get me out if I have not already Closed the position. This seems to be a prudent and yet practical way to use Stops and it means the Loss I take is smaller than if it runs to the Stop.
16/12/2020 Bought another Long DFB Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 6571 which is bizarrely almost identical to the Position I opened on 8th December - see below. I have doubled my Exposure and the Stop is the same at 6255 which is on a manual EOD basis. It will cost me 0.8% of Portfolio if hit. Again targeting 6850 for the Santa Rally and this is about 16% of my Long Shares Exposure so now 132% Long. I expect to run this to early January but if the upside is still in view, I may hold it longer. Equally, if it goes the wrong way then I might get out before the Stop. I explained a lot about the Santa Rally on Podcast TPI 37. In case you don't read my Tweets (you are missing out !!) then you may not know I am having health problems so no blogs for a while but they will restart once I am better.
9/12/2020 Bought normal Shares in BAR Brand Architekts at 140p with a Starter Position worth 1% of my Portfolio. I first picked up on this one early in 2020 and thankfully it has not done much since with the C19 Farce preventing much upside. It is covered by Simon Thompson in 'Investors Chronicle' and it was one of his 'Bargain Shares' for the year and that is what got me on to it. At the same time I noticed Xaar XAR and they were in a similar situation at the time with both being Recovery Plays that had huge Cash Piles. However, I totally missed out on XAR and it has shot up, and I didn't want to let BAR get away from me and with the Cash and Slots I have available, it was great to see BAR was still extremely attractive. The key here is that it reminds me of what happened to MPAC when it was at almost exactly the same stage, with the Company poised for Recovery and backed by a crazy amount of cash. BAR has all the ingredients in place - £18m Cash against a Market Cap around £23m, a complete change of management at the top, Directors been buying, Peter Gyllenhammer (the highly regarded Private Investor) as a Shareholder, kitchen-sinking of the last results and a Strategy to get the Recovery underway. Simon Thompson points out the Operational Gearing which means that as Revenues ramp up, then the Profits will rise at a much faster rate. The company is targeting £50m Revenue in a few years and that is a big increase from current numbers which are around £16m from memory. The Strategy is to focus on rejuvenating their Cosmetics and Haircare and Hygiene Brands and to introduce new Products - note, Simon T thinks they can do this from Cash flows and won't need to erode the Cash pile which means the financial strength will have some endurance. In addition, they plan to do acquisitions and clearly that can boost the Revenue and Profit if they are picky. The new Management look very capable and include a CEO with experience in Cosmetics big brands - you need to check them but they are big names. The former CEO is still with the business as a Non-Exec - this used to be Swallowfield SWL which was a decent business but clearly the wheels fell off. They have sold off the Manufacturing operation and now that is outsourced, which makes sense and that is where the Cash comes from. One of the few obvious drawbacks is a Defined Benefit Pension deficit but they have a plan of Recovery payments and I doubt this will be an issue (remember, people all said the Pension at MPAC was a problem.......). I have yet to dig deeply into the figures, but my expectation is that the Shares can gain hugely from here if things go to plan - at lease 100% upside is highly likely I think and in truth I will be wanting a lot more than that. As the story develops and if the News is positive, I will be looking to buy more and I am quite happy to build a sizeable overweight despite the relatively small size because that Cash Pile gives a big 'Margin of Safety'. This Stock also reminds me of Creightons CRL which is also a very attractive business which looks good value; in fact, I am pretty sure CRL sold a Men's Shaving Brand to SWL a while back. The other focus is on Online Growth and B2C - Business to Consumer marketing.
8/12/2020 Opened Long DFB Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 6572 equivalent to about 16% of my Long Portfolio. I want to play a possible 'Santa Rally' and have gone a bit early but I might add more if it looks good. Brexit mucking about is a concern but I figure that 'No Deal' would hit the Pound and that would probably help the FTSE100. I discussed this with Peter @Conkers3 on the Podcast TPI 37 and it is usually a pretty reliable trend of rises through December and particularly around the Xmas and New Year period. My Stoploss is at 6255 which is nice and generous and I might Close my Position early if I am concerned and if the Trade goes well, then I will raise the Stoploss. The Stop is not 'hard' with my Broker but I will execute manually if it is hit on an End of Day Close basis. If the Stop is hit, it will cost me 0.8% of my Portfolio Value and my Target is 6850 but I will run it as long as it works my way. I discussed all this in my Weekend 'Stocks & Markets' Blog as well which is on WD2 and I will no doubt cover it this coming Weekend as well.
8/12/2020 Bought Lok 'n Store LOK Shares in my normal ISA at 556p a Share. I have just done a 'Starter Position' of 1% of my Portfolio and that gets me in a Stock I have been admiring for years but never got around to actually buying. Recently I was talking a lot on Twitter about it and stuff but then it went on a huge move up and nearly doubled !! With the C19 problems, LOK got whacked but it has recovered from the March Lows, but still looks a decent entry point. I see LOK as very much a Long Term Buy & Hold Stock that I can tuck away and not worry about and I expect the potential for years and years of nice growth as they expand to more locations and bigger Stores. LOK is very much like Big Yellow BYG and Safestore SAFE but much smaller and more an early growth play. LOK has a Forward Dividend Yield of about 2.7% and I expect that can keep steadily growing, so hopefully I can pick up nice Dividends as well as getting steady Capital Growth in coming years. My intention is to buy more LOK as time moves on and I wanted to move on them now because they have an AGM this Thursday I think and I wanted to get in before any kind of Trading Update which might draw attention to them. The Self-Storage sector has been growing steadily for years in the UK but is still quite a new thing here. In the US and in Europe it is much bigger and I think the trend for growth will continue. So with luck in LOK I have a growth Company in a growth sector which should be useful dynamics to ensure a good investment. One big fear is that LOK gets taken-over which, although it may be nice in the short term, would be annoying if it is taken too soon before I can get some decent benefit from it. Storage is a very 'sticky' sector because Customers tend to rent the space and pay by Direct Debit and then they forget the cr*p they shoved in the storage room. They don't want the hassle of actually clearing out the store and it's easier just to keep paying. The way we live our lives with ever smaller houses and yet more and more junk that we buy, just helps the Storage trend. Once we fill our Garage and fill the Attic and the Garden Shed, then Self-Storage is the next port of call, and they lure you in with lower initial monthly rental rates. A lot of small Internet Sales businesses are run from Storage Centres as well.
8/12/2020 Sold a bit of my holding in MPAC at 436p because my Position has grown loads and now represents a crazy proportion of my Portfolio for what is really a pretty small company. I sold a chunk equivalent to about 2% of my Portfolio and now probably still have about 11% of my Portfolio in them. This is far too much and I need to sell more, but I have a Long Spreadbet on them and I will act to reduce that soon. I still like MPAC hugely and am very happy to keep a more sensible Position and I am looking at a minimum Target of 600p and it is not impossible to imagine 800p. It has been a difficult decision to sell because MPAC still looks so good and extremely good value, despite the juicy gains I have made already. But I need to keep Risk in the forefront of my mind and if there was a sudden shock Profit Warning or something, then the damage to my Portfolio would be immense from having such an over-weight Position. My average buy price in my iDealing Account is about 104p so my banked profit is vast here and something like 300% up. Really pleased and now got money for some buys !!
25/11/2020 Bought Bango BGO Shares at 180p in my ISA to add to the Spreadbet Position I have had since back in June 2020. I really like BGO and have high hopes and may buy more in time. I bought about 1% of my Portfolio Value and now have about 2.5% in them. Since buying the Spreadbet they have been slowly moving up and the excellent newsflow has continued which gives me even more confidence. If you look on my 'Stocks & Markets' blog page on WD2, there should be a 'Stock Buy Rationale' I wrote for them.
24/11/2020 Bought more Gateley GTLY via a June '21 Spreadbet at 151p with a Position equivalent to about 1% of my Total Portfolio Value so now got about 2.5% in GTLY as I have some 'normal' Shares. I have wanted to 'mirror' my Shareholding for ages but with the C19 mess I did not see an opportunity and of course with Leveraged Positions you need to be a bit careful and confident you are buying at a good time. Anyway, latest GTLY Update back in September was pretty good and recent Updates from other Legal Firms have been good. GTLY has a significant Property Arm and I have read that other Property related Stocks have been pretty busy so this makes me think GTLY should be ok. GTLY has barely any debt and has a Dividend Yield a shade over 4% which is nice and is on a Forward P/E around 11 which I think is cheap for the growth potential if I just sit on them for some time. I wouldn't mind having more but don't have any spare Cash !!
10/11/2020 Closed remaining FTSE100 Short Spreadbets at 6287 so now 100% Long again. In the very short term I expect a possible Consolidation type move of maybe a small pullback or something but in the bigger picture the mood seems very different and a lot of the beat up FTSE100 Megacaps look like they can move up more. I have taken a Loss here of about 1.5% of Portfolio Value in total - it's a bit irksome in that the speed of the jump yesterday and the continuing strength caught me out a bit - but of course I mostly got the offset from my Long Positions. Interestingly it didn't quite reach my Stoploss Level but I closed out anyway because of what I am seeing on the Charts with the 13/21 Day EMA doing a 'Bull Cross' in particular and with the Price breaking higher out of the Downtrend Channel that has been running for several months. On the positive side I am pleased I have taken action whereas in the past I would have probably let the losses run and regretted it later !!
9/11/2020 Closed part of FTSE100 Short Spreadbet Position at 6218 and 6215 - both around 15% of my Long Portfolio Value so now down from about 50% Hedged to 20% Hedged. I will assess Charts tonight and might Close all my Shorts but I am not rushing to act yet. Markets did a huge leap on resolution of US Presidential Election and the Pfizer Vaccine news. The mood certainly seems to be changing and it looks like Stocks that were really beat up as a result of the Economic woes are the ones rebounding hard, and people are rotating out of the stuff like Tech that did very well when Lockdown was all the rage. In terms of the Technicals on the Charts, this is significant because there were many Bearish signs but the jump today will negate those and avoidance of Bearish signs tends to be Bullish in itself. It was notable that the big cyclical heavyweights of the FTSE100 like RDSB, BP., Miners, VOD, HSBA, etc. did really well after being in Major Downtrends for a long time - it seems likely they can continue to rise in coming months (especially as this is the most bullish time of year) and obviously if they rise they will drag the FTSE100 Index up with them. I took a hit of 1% of my Long Portfolio Value on one of the Trades and a 0.4% hit on the other, so the total damage was 1.4% - I am not too stressed about that and am pleased I have taken action rather than letting the Shorts/Hedges run like I have done in the past (big mistake !!). Because they were Leveraged Trades the individual damage was 137% of Margin Deposit on one and 57% of Margin Deposit on the other - but of course that is how Margin and Leverage work. I was a bit fortunate in that my Shorts were 'in the money' before today's jump so the actual recognised Loss was a lot less than it could have been after a 5% jump in the FTSE100. With hindsight, I am wondering if my Hedging was a little high at 50% and perhaps in future I will dial it down to about 40% - that is not a big stress but just something I am pondering. It is clearly a lot easier to manage such Hedges when the Shorts and Longs I have in my Spreadbet Account are more 'in balance' - I was in a situation where the Shorts were a lot bigger than the Longs.
26/10/2020 Sold Golden Prospect GPM Subscription Warrants GPSS at about 9p. I held GPM years ago and sold them when I got bored with it and I am now of the view that Gold exposure is of little use to me because it seems to rise when Stocks rise (I have a few Stocks already !!) and I don't need it to hedge my Portfolio because I Hedge via Index Shorts anyway. I sold both the Warrants in my Share Account and also the Spreadbets I had - the final chance to take up the Warrants and convert to GPM Ordinary Shares is on 30th November and I don't want them so no point holding the Warrants and it is a bit of a housekeeping exercise. I freed up Cash worth about 0.3% of my Portfolio so it is small beer but it does slightly reduce the Loss I took on selling the GPM Shares years ago. I can't be bothered to go to my Spreadsheets and work out the exact numbers !!
15/10/2020 Shorted FTSE100 at 5865 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 12% of my Long Shares Portfolio and I am now up to 50% Hedged. Stoploss is at 6350 like on my other FTSE100 Shorts (see below) and it will be operated manually (i.e. no Stoploss Order with my Broker) on an EOD (End of Day) Close basis. If the Stop is hit it will cost me 1% of Portfolio value. Clearly the Economic situation in the UK is dire and that is also similar in Europe with a Second Wave of C19 scaring Politicians out of their extremely miniscule brains (if we are lucky, they will go extinct like the Dinosaurs did). We have been treated to 13/21 Day EMA Bear Crosses and that is not a good sign especially when they had just done Bull Crosses - which were clearly false signals. I suspect we could see a sizeable drop perhaps down to 5400 or so. Anyway, I am now carrying a lot of protection against a full on sell-off and if that doesn't happen, then I can quickly turn the Hedges off.
5/10/2020 Closed S&P500 Short Spreadbet at 3403 taking a Loss equivalent to 0.65% of Portfolio Value. I felt that the US wanted to turn up again after recent weakness last week but the news about Trump getting ill pulled it back. However, today it was really strong again and the Nasdaq Comp has done a 13/21 Day EMA Bull Cross and I think it is a matter of days before the other Indexes follow. It makes little sense to me on fundamentals but there is no point fighting the Markets and I am still Short on FTSE100 so I am now about 35% Hedged. I Closed this before hitting my Stoploss but that seems sensible to me.
23/9/2020 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3241 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 13% of my Long Exposure so I am now about 51% Hedged and that is probably enough although I reserve the right to add a tiny bit more if I feel so disposed !! Stoploss at 3490 with a Manual Trigger (no Stop with the broker) and on an EOD Close basis (End of Day). Will cost me 1% of Portfolio Value if Stop hit. Target 2800 at least and will just track the Trade and Close when I see the necessary Signals. The 13/21 Day EMAs are very much bearish and I don't like how the US Indexes have been unable to build on a nice Bullish Reversal from Monday - things are clearly very weak which is typical in the Autumn as I have continually pointed out.
8/9/2020 Shorted FTSE100 a little more at 5855 via a DFB Spreadbet, equivalent to about 8% of my Long Shares & Spreadbets Portfolio and now I am about 38% Hedged. Stoploss at 6350 same as the other Shorts I have and operated manually by me on an End of Day (EOD) Close basis. Target 5350 but it is more a case of keeping the Hedges in place until I see good signs to turn them off. Charts not massively negative and interesting that European Indexes are holding up well, but US dropping off and fundamentally the Covid 19 thing seems to be gathering pace and there are lots of concerns around Brexit and the US Election. And of course Autumn is usually a bad period for Stocks. If my Stop gets hit on this Trade it will cost me 0.7% of my Portfolio Value but I suspect I would close it before that and if the Trade goes my way I will be lowering the Stop slowly. 13/21 day EMAs are still in Bear Mode - that's important.
3/9/2020 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more at 5815 on a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio so I am now about 30% Hedged as we go into a traditionally tough period for Markets. US in particular is way over-bought and needs a Correction and if and when this happens I cannot see the weak FTSE100 not joining in the 'fun'. I have put my Stoploss at 6350 like on my other Position below which is a bit wide but I don't want to be spiked out when I need a Hedge and it is a backstop really. The Stop will be triggered on an End of Day Close basis and it is manually operated by me, not a firm Stoploss with my Broker. If Stop hit it will cost me about 1.3% of Portfolio Value but I intend to lower the Stop as soon as I can if the Trade goes my way. I might Short a little more but with about 30% Hedging I feel quite well placed if a Sell-off does come along.
30/7/2020 Shorted FTSE100 at 6047 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio (so I am now around 15% Hedged). Stoploss at 6350 on an End of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger (no firm Order placed with Broker) and if it gets hit it will cost me 0.75% of Portfolio Value. The mood of the Markets seems to have really changed in recent weeks and with the move to the downside today on the FTSE100 there are plenty of Technical Signals that things look a bit ropey. With Autumn often a tough time for Markets it would be no surprise to see another fairly sizeable drop and the Economic backdrop is utterly appalling and there are signs of the Virus picking up steam again across all of Europe and in the UK where the 'R' Rate is very near 1.0. I have deliberately kept my Short on the small side and I may add to it if we get more significant downside and I sense a need to Hedge more. The obvious Trigger I am paying a lot of attention to is the Bear Cross on the 13/21 Day EMAs and in addition the Monthly Candlesticks are shaping up to look pretty negative once the Candle for July is completed tomorrow. The failure of 6000 today was also a sign of weakness.
6/7/2020 Closed FTSE100 Short Spreadbet at 6285 taking a Loss equivalent to 0.8% of Portfolio Value and if you add on the Loss from the S&P500 Short that I switched from (below) then the total damage is 2.5%. I discussed this Trade at length at the end of the recent Podcast TPI 26 and I think it was a 'mistake' borne from a couple of psychological errors such as Confirmation Bias and Impatience. The main takeaway for me is that I need to see clearer breaches of the 13/21 Day EMA Lines in the form of a 'Bear Cross' before going Short and as much as I wanted to 'go large' straightaway (because prior to the big Sell-off we had some months ago I was too slow building my Short Position), it is probably better to build a Hedge in stages. That sizing issue is a tough call but had I seen a clearer set of Signals, especially on the 13/21 Day EMAs, then a larger Position might not have been such a problem for me. Anyway, on the positive side of things I have learnt some more highly important lessons and for a change I have shown some Discipline and closed the failing Positions out quickly and way before my Stoploss level. Another positive is that this was a Hedge, so I made a bit on my Long Positions and Shares anyway, and it is more about gains forgone than an actual Loss overall. Following this I am now back to about 100% Long with my Exposure.
1/7/2020 Closed S&P500 Short at 3110 banking a Loss equivalent to 1.7% of Portfolio Value BUT I have switched to a FTSE100 Short which I Opened at 6168 on a DFB Spreadbet of roughly similar size at about 43% of my Portfolio Value so I am now about 57% Long and the rest is Hedged. I have not been happy with the S&P500 Short for the last 3 days as it has gone against me and I think the major mistake was to move too quickly without a clear 13/21 Day EMA Bear Cross although the Lines were touching and there were lots of other Bearish Signals as per my Blog from Sunday. I don't like how the S&P500 is moving up driven by the strength in the Nasdaq and with US ADP Jobs Numbers due on Thursday and the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, I think it is safer to switch to the FTSE100. Hopefully this will be a bit better match to my Portfolio of Shares in terms of Hedging and it is very close to a 13/21 Day EMA Bear Cross which could easily trigger on not much weakness. I have put a Stoploss at 6520 on an End Of Day (EOD) Close basis and with a Manual Trigger - that gives a lot of wiggle room and if the FTSE100 Breaks Out above very strong Resistance at 6511 then I won't want to be Short !! If the Stop is hit it will cost me 2.4% of Portfolio Value but remember this is a Hedge so hopefully I will gain on my Shares and in practice I often close my Trades before they hit the Stop.
28/6/2020 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 3000 with a Position equivalent to about 45% of my Portfolio Value so this means I have pretty much instantly gone from 120% Long to 55% Long with just a couple of simple Trades. As per my entry below for Closing the FTSE100 Longs, I am nervous about the Markets with several Bearish Signals on the Charts and I want to Hedge to protect my Portfolio. I have put a Stoploss at 3250 and this will be operated on a Manual Trigger and on an EOD Close basis (no Stoploss with the Broker and this avoids Spikes). If it gets hit I will lose an amount equivalent to about 3.75% of Portfolio Value which is quite high but I have a big Position and I want it to have plenty of wiggle room. If the Trade goes my way I will look to lower the Stop as the Trade develops. If things don't play as I expect then hopefully I will be able to Stop it before it hits my Stoploss Level anyway.
28/6/2020 Closed both FTSE100 Long Spreadbets I had running at 6119 taking a hit equivalent to about 0.4% of Portfolio Value which is no big deal and I am happy with that. I am nervous on the Markets after having looked at my Charts today (see 'Stocks & Markets' blog I published earlier on WD2) and I want to Hedge.
26/6/2020 Moss Bros MOSB left my Portfolio after many years after a Takeover Bid concluded at 22p. I have mixed feelings because I suspect there is value here if it had time to come out but with the Covid19 challenges, Retail is a nasty place to be and I am not massively upset to see it go and it feels a bit like a problem solved and a decision made for me. It is quite difficult tracking through my Spreadsheets on which I record my Trades because I first bought back in 2013 and then more in 2014 and some in 2016. On first working out the numbers it looked like a pretty painful loss after buying at 74p and 92p and 98p which gave a loss equivalent to 2% of my Portfolio Value but after doing a search I was pleased to discover I had actuallly bought some at 56p and sold at 130p from back in 2013 and this gave a profit equivalent to 0.9% of my Portfolio. So overall I lost 1.1% of my Portfolio Value which is irritating but no disaster. I also would have received lots of nice Dividends. As I say, mixed feelings but I am moving on.
23/6/2020 Bought more Team17 TM17 at 587p on a Long Spreadbet on the Mar21 Contract, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Exposure so now got around 3.5% in TM17. I hold Normal Shares and I wanted a 'mirror' spreadbet but unfortunately the Shares have risen a lot since I first bought but I think there is still upside with patience. So far TM17 has been a huge success since recent IPO and the Chart has a lovely uptrend. A forward P/E of 34 is not 'cheap' but they have Cash and I think it is very possible they will beat expectations. Video Gaming is red hot as a sector and I am happy to have more exposure to this big theme. On verge of 13/21 Day EMA Bull Cross which tends to predict gains ahead and also coming up off the bottom Bollinger Band.
16/6/2020 Bought Bango BGO via a Long Spreadbet on the Dec20 Contract at 158p, equivalent to about 1.5% of my Long Exposure. Had my eye on BGO for a while but didn't have spare Cash to buy normal Shares so decided to 'get my foot in the door' by buying some Long Exposure via a Spreadbet. Simon Thompson covers this in 'Investors Chronicle' and he forecasts £10m of Cash Profit "in a few years" - which is a Forward P/E of 11 which looks cheap for a growth stock and I expect good newsflow as they sign up more Agreements. They do Direct Carrier Billing whereby a Mobile Fone User can buy goods/services via their Fone and it appears on their Mobile Fone Bill. The beauty is high Operational Gearing because the Platform BGO has is pretty much a Fixed Cost irrespective of volumes and can scale up to $25bn of End User Revenue (BGO get a tiny % of this) from around $1bn now. Also has a Data Analytics aspect whereby they provide valuable Marketing Information to their Partners to enable targeting advertising and promotions etc. I will most likely buy some normal shares as well when I have some Cash.
3/6/2020 Opened another Long DFB Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 6388 equivalent to another 10% of my Stock Portfolio - so now up to about 122% Long. On this one I have put the Stoploss at 5870 and that is on an End of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger (i.e. no Stop Order with the Broker). If the Stop is hit it will cost me 0.8% of Portfolio Value but hopefully I can move it up if the Trade goes my way and the potential Loss will reduce. The FTSE100 has moved up well and in the very short term it may need to calm down a bit before the next push up - I have left a bit of firepower to add more early next week if that is what happens and I see opportunity. My Target is 6800 but it could do more I suspect.
2/6/2020 Opened Long DFB Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 6244 equivalent to 12% of my Stock Portfolio - so I am now back to 112% Long. I am highly surprised by the reaction of the Markets to the US protests/riots and will be keeping away from the US markets for that reason. However, as I have been saying for weeks, as Oil recovers I expect the FTSE100 to move up and I think we are very near that happening with a Breakout of 6234 being the key level which may happen very soon (my Spreadbet was placed out of hours in the Futures Market effectively and that is why it appears higher than 6234 as if the Breakout has happened. It is the underlying Market that matters). I have gone a bit early because I do not want to miss out and it looks very likely that the Breakout will happen and I will most likely add more if and when that occurs. My Stop is at 5645 on an End Of Day (EOD) Close basis and I will trigger it manually if it gets hit. I have gone for a wide Stop to allow wiggle room and if hit it will cost me 1.2% of Portfolio Value. I will probably close it early if the Trade goes smelly and I intend to move the Stop up behind it if the Trade goes well for me. My Target is 6800 but I will be pragmatic on the way up.
1/6/2020 Closed S&P500 Long Spreadbet at 3040 and FTSE100 Long Spreadbets at 6123. I am nervous about the possible impact of the US Protests/Riots and how this will play out with big potential to get very messy. I was about 155% Long on my Exposure and carrying a fair bit of Leverage so it seems highly prudent and wise to Close the Positions and stand aside to see how it plays out. I couldn't Close the Positions on Sunday because they change to Weekend Bets and the DFBs open at about 11pm I think but they are crazy choppy when first open. Anyway, I was thinking it over and concerned we would see the US Indexes hit hard and I was listening to CNN whilst lying in bed at about 4am in the morning !! I decided after running lots of Scenarios through in my head that it would be a good idea to see how the Bets were trading over night and inform any action with this in mind. Anyway, I opened my Spreadbet Account and was hugely surprised to see both S&P500 and FTSE100 holding up very well (I think good China PMI Numbers might have helped). With the potential Risks and the fact I have lots of Long Exposure anyway, I decided to Close the Positions and this was an easy decision because they were both in Profit and I can always buy again if I think the situation is ok. I banked a Profit equivalent to about 1.5% of my Portfolio Value over all 3 Positions and this was about 60% Return on the Capital Employed due to the Leverage - not bad in a few weeks. I am now 100% Long on my Portfolio and my Leverage has been more than halved so I should sleep well tonight !!
19/5/2020 Bought a Long Spreadbet on Vodafone VOD on the Dec20 Contract at 129p, equivalent to about 1% of overall Portfolio Value. I already hold a bit in my Income Portfolio and I like the Dividend Yield over 6% and the spin-out of the Towers business in early 2021 should help to reduce Debt. Vodafone is very much a Leader in the Mobile Telecoms industry and recent moves to retrench out of more challenging Markets has been a decent strategic development. Chart looks pretty good and as we come out of Lockdowns I think there is a good likelihood it can rise. Of course 5G is coming along as well.
29/4/2020 Opened another Long DFB Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 6155 equivalent to about 15% of Long Portfolio so now got 30% Long on the FTSE100 and 15% Long on the S&P500 roughly - so I am 145% Long. Stoploss on this one at 5550 and if hit it will cost me 1.5% of Portfolio Value but I intend to get out before this and if the Trade goes my way then I will move the Stop up behind it. As usual the Stoploss is operated by me on an End of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger (i.e. not a 'hard coded' Stop with the broker). As per my Blog and Tweets, the Triangle has broken to the upside and this Index looks really bullish with a 13/21 Day EMA 'Bull Cross' a couple of days ago as well.
28/4/2020 Placed Long DFB Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 5931 equivalent to 15% of Long Portfolio so now about 130% Long. Stoploss at 5340 on an End of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger - if hit I will suffer a Loss of 1.5% of Portfolio value but I intend to close it early if Trade goes against me and if goes my way I plan to move the Stop up promptly. Breakout of Triangle as per my Blogs and a 13/21 Day EMA Bull Cross which is one of my favourite signals. If goes above 6000 I may add more. Potential upside is immense - 1000 points even !!
14/4/2020 Opened S&P500 Long via DFB Spreadbet at 2853 (US500 on igIndex) equivalent to about 14% of my Long Shares Portfolio. Stoploss at 2640 on a Manual Trigger EOD (End of Day) Close basis. If hit will cost me 1% of Portfolio Value. I have kept it quite small as I don't trust the Rally in the bigger Macro picture but the technical signs are bullish and I want to exploit that move. I might add if I get more confident but I am wary not to be greedy.
8/4/2020 Closed FTSE100 Short at 5706 taking a loss equivalent to 0.5% of Portfolio Value. The bullishness in the Markets makes little sense but bitter (and expensive !!) experience has drummed it into me to obey Stoploss Levels and not to fight the move. I am quite pleased because even though my recent Shorts have ended up loss-making, I have actually shown some discipline for a change and in fact I exited all of them before the Stoplosses actually triggered. I am now pretty much 100% Long which seems the right stance from what the Technical picture is telling me and I will be on the lookout for opportunities to do a small Index Long (probably on the S&P500).
7/4/2020 Closed S&P500 Shorts at 2647 taking a loss equivalent to 1.4% of Portfolio Value. Mood certainly improved in the markets (although it doesn't really make much sense apart from stuff being quite beat-up) and several Technical factors such as Breakouts on Bullish Cup & Handle patterns, suggest the recovery can continue for a while. After the issues I have had with Hedging in recent years I am taking no chances and have closed them out before they hit my Stoploss. If Markets go wobbly again I can quickly place Shorts on. I am keeping a small Short on the FTSE100 for now but might be closing that soon. Quite pleased that I am showing some discipline for a change !!
30/3/2020 Shorted S&P500 a bit more at 2517 via a DFB Spreadbet (on igIndex this is US500) equivalent to about 12.5% of Long Portfolio based on starting value January 1st and this brings my total Hedging up to about 40% (in practice, because the value of my Shares has dropped since Jan 1st, the true level of Hedging will be higher - probably around 50%). I will put Stoploss at 2900 the same as my other S&P500 Short. As per my recent Charts Blogs, the Indexes all look pretty weak and I just want to get more Hedging in place to avoid too much damage if we do get more falls. Clearly the Virus situation is likely to go on for some time and cause a lot of damage to Economies. I prefer to Short S&P500 rather than FTSE100 because of the way the latter is so exposed to Oil and big Oil Stocks with some bizarre weightings in the Index.
27/3/2020 Shorted FTSE100 via DFB Spreadbet at 5487 equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio exposure based on the starting value January 1st. With the S&P500 Short I am roughly 30% Hedged now. Going into the weekend I had the sense I wanted to be Short more because the excitement of the 'Stimulus' packages (that is a joke really, as it will be very hard to stimulate Economies that are completely shut-down and it is more like a Life-Support System to just about keep things barely alive) will have died down and it is highly likely we just get a drip, drip, drip of more bad news about the Virus spreading pretty much everywhere and I expect this to continue next week. With such a backdrop it is hard to see this attempt to rally getting very far and the key signals I use like the 13/21 day EMA Crosses are still bearish. I have gone for a very wide Stoploss at 6250 because I want to stay in the trade but my intention will be to drop it quickly if I can and reduce the potential damage if I have to trigger it. If the Stop is hit it will cost me nearly 2% of Portfolio Value which is a lot so I need to lower it if I can. An alternative Stoploss could be at 5900 or a bit under that - but it runs the risk of being stopped out in these vicious Bear Market rallies. I have not got a firm Stoploss Order with my Broker - I will trigger it manually if it gets hit. I will keep monitoring the situation and might Short a little bit more early next week if I see the appropriate Signals.
25/3/2020 Shorted S&P500 via DFB Spreadbet at 2493 (US500 on igIndex) equivalent to about 12% of my Long Exposure based on the Starting Value of my Portfolio on January 1st not on its current value. There are technical signs that the Rally has run out of puff like the Shooting Star Candlesticks today and the Price is up at the Top Bollinger Bands. The 13/21 Day EMAs are still firmly in Bear Mode and these make it much more likely that Short Trades will work than Long Trades. I have put a Stoploss at 2900 which is very wide and my intention is to lower it quickly if the Trade goes my way. The Stop is on a End of Day Close basis and I will trigger it manually - i.e. it is not a hard entry with igIndex. I will watch how things go in coming days and might Short more. If the Stop gets hit it will cost me 2% of my Portfolio but I might Close it before that anyway if things go against me - it is a Hedge anyway so I am not really losing 2% if you see what I mean because I will be gaining on the Long Positions.
19/3/2020 Closed all remaining S&P500 Shorts at 2354 and 2359, banking a Profit equivalent to about 2.4% of Portfolio Value (that is the starting value on Jan 1st 2020 - not the considerably lower value now !!). In total that banks about 8% of Profit which I am quite pleased with because although it nowhere near offsets all the falls in my Portfolio, it did reduce the hit and I think I have played the Hedging reasonably well and it definitely helps a lot on the psychology side of things. I didn't want to carry any Shorts into the weekend because it looks like there will be a lot of Stimulus/Bailout measures in UK and US and we already had some from BoE and ECB in recent days. Technically US Markets look very oversold and there are some nice Hammer Candles being banged in. If things go ugly again, I can quickly slam on Shorts and I will keep monitoring the Charts with a view to going Long on the S&P500 perhaps but if I do it will only be in small size. Things are obviously still very troubled.
17/3/2020 Closed part of my S&P500 Short at 2463. This was about 7.5% of Portfolio value and with the FTSE100 Shorts all closed now, I am about 15% Hedged now against my Long Portfolio of Shares and if we get a move up as I expect, then I might Short more again. I banked a Profit equivalent to about 2% of my Portfolio value on this one.
17/3/2020 Closed remaining FTSE100 Short Position at 5211 and banked a Profit equivalent to 0.75% of Portfolio Value. Makes it easier to manage just having S&P500 Short to worry about.
16/3/2020 Closed part of my S&P500 Short at 2447. I Opened this one at 2991 so a decent Profit banked equivalent to about 1.4% of Long Portfolio value. This was about 6% of Long Portfolio Exposure so my Short Position now at about 32%. Hearing rumours of an $800bn Bailout in US and that could calm things down a bit and as I mentioned on the FTSE100 Short below, I want to get my Spreadbet Longs and Shorts more in balance because it is a lot easier to manage. Frees up some Deposit Cash which is always welcome.
16/3/2020 Closed part of my FTSE100 Short at 5054 equivalent to about 7.5% of my Long Portfolio but keeping about 5% of my Long Portfolio Short and still got all the S&P500 Shorts. Markets utterly smacked today and UK and Europe has sold off a lot more than US Markets (makes sense as further along the Epidemic Curve) and I expect US to play catch-up. I am wary to make my Longs and Shorts in my Spreadbet Account more in balance as I am Net Short by a lot. I will be looking to reduce the Shorts and get the balance closer. I am a bit worried we will see a huge Fiscal Bailout from Governments around the world and that could trigger a Relief Rally. I banked a Profit equivalent to 1.4% of Long Portfolio Value on this Trade in a short space of time. Gets some Deposit Margin returned which boosts my Cash Position which acts as a cushion.
13/3/2020 Shorted S&P500 a little bit more via a DFB Spreadbet at 2541 equivalent to about 12% of my Long Portfolio. This brings my Hedging up to about 50% and I might do a tiny bit more Shorting next week depending on how it plays out. It is a tough call to Short just before the weekend but having seen the constant awful News about Events being cancelled and things like Denmark shutting their Borders and it is obvious Economies around the world are going into a hefty Recession. I still think the US in particular is in denial about the depth of the crisis and the significant number of deaths it is likely to cause and all the shutdowns will kill Company Earnings. My decision to move has been partly motivated by the feeble attempt to Rally today - things were set very well for a Bounce and we got it early on but the Bulls soon gave up. I am expecting a minimum of 50% Drop from the recent Peaks on all Major Indexes and that means a lot more downside yet. I am trying to be balanced with my Shorts and getting to about the right level but if we Rally early next week I will look to short more. There is a good chance of more bad news over the weekend so we might see more falls on Monday.
9/3/2020 Shorted FTSE100 via Spreadbet at 5962 equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio. This was an extremely uncomfortable trade because I have broken my Golden Rule and made a decision during the trading day and at the height of panic after a big plunge in Markets as they opened after the weekend in which Italy got shut down more and clear Fear is in the air. I have done this more as Insurance to try to Hedge my Portfolio more and in particular my Long Spreadbet positions (starting to wonder if I should have just closed them all weeks ago but that Horse is way out over the fields by now !!). I came back to this in the evening of Monday 9th March and I have decided on a Stoploss Level at 6875 which is very wide but I want 'wiggle room' as Bear Market rallies can snapback really rapidly and stop you out before plunging again. I will execute on an End of Day (EOD) Close basis and it is triggered manually. I will lose 2.3% of my Portfolio Value if the Stop is triggered but remember this is a Hedge so I will have gained on my Longs. An alternative Stoploss level would be just above 6500.
3/3/2020 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) a bit more at 2991 via a DFB Spreadbet and this one is equivalent to about 7.5% of my Long Portfolio Value and this bring my total Hedging up to about 23% but I don't think I am quite done yet and intend to add a bit more in coming days, depending on how things play out. We had a super strong Rally yesterday which is typical of Bear Market behaviour and the fact it fizzled out already today is not good at all. Maybe we will see more upside (although I doubt this) and if so that will mean I can Short higher if I still feel the need. My Stoploss is at 3300 on this one so if it gets hit then it will cost me 0.8% of my Portfolio Value but I decided keeping the Stoploss Level the same as on another one of my Shorts is just easier to manage and if Markets keep falling, I will lower the Stoploss and reduce my Risk. As always the Stop will be triggered on an End of Day (EOD) Close basis and I will execute it manually - but it is very possible that if the Markets perk up then I would close the Shorts earlier anyway.
26/02/2020 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) a little more at 3111 via a DFB Spreadbet this time equivalent to about 6% of my Long Portfolio so I am now about 16% Hedged. On this one the Stoploss is at 3300 which is just above the 'Gap' from where the S&P500 opened on Monday 24th Feb and applies on an End of Day Close basis with a manual trigger. If the Stop gets hit it will cost me 0.4% of Portfolio value which is the price of Insurance. US Markets tried to rally today but the bears drove them back down again and even though they are quite beat up, there is still room to drop a bit more and it is likely we bounce a bit and then fall again I suspect. The Virus is clearly spreading widely and it is just a matter of time before it gets into the US and the impact on Economic Growth could be significant with disruption of supply chains and with tourism grinding to a halt and many people off work etc.
25/02/2020 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3139 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent in size to about 10% of my Total Portfolio value. I want some Hedge with the Virus clearly becoming a much bigger issue and going a bit 'pandemic' but I realise I am a bit late to the Shorting party so keeping it small for now but if we bounce I will add more if I can. Stoploss at 3400 which is above the All Time High and if we get up here then we can be sure the Virus is no longer an issue so I will be happy to see the Short being closed. The Stoploss is on a Manual Trigger (i.e. no firm order with igIndex) and it is based on the End of Day (EOD). If the Stop gets hit I lose 0.8% of Portfolio value which is no big deal for the protection of some downside that this Hedge Insurance gives me. Technically the S&P500 and most other Indexes look bad with 13/21 Day EMA Bear Crosses just triggered which suggest weeks of softness ahead and also RSI 37 today is low but can go much lower. A Stop could be placed just above the Gap from where the S&P500 Opened on Monday 24th Feb which would be at about 3275 but in Bear Market type action we can get sharp, fast, rallies which can hit your Stop and take you out. I want protection so I do not want the Stop triggered unless I am sure things are ok so a wide Stop and a lower '£s per point' is my preferred method. I could bet a higher '£ per point' but would need a tighter Stop.
24/02/2020 Closed Long Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3227 taking a small Loss equivalent to 0.17% of Portfolio Value. Had this running for nearly a month (Opened at 3286) and it was in profit but the kicking the Markets took today (Monday 24th Feb) due to the Virus wiped out the gains. However, Markets look a bit wobbly now and I suspect we will see more falls even if we bounce a little initially - if anything the stance is probably to be Short but I will just stand aside for now and see how things settle out. The Trade did not hit my Stoploss but it had got quite near.
19/02/2020 Closed Long Spreadbet I had running on National Grid NG. at 1064p. I have had this position for probably a couple of years and this is part of an intended tidying up exercise with my Spreadbet Account. I still hold normal Shares and I intend to keep these but NG. has run up a lot recently and it seems a reasonable time to close this out. On the Exposure I made about 10% Profit but because it was Leveraged the Return on the Capital used for Deposit Margin was about 50%. The high Dividend payments have covered the Interest Charges on the position.
12/02/2020 TopChopped about a third of my Position in Tristel TSTL Shares at 421p after a strong jump up recently probably related to the Corona Virus issues and it looks too stretched and the valuation is very high. Long term I really like TSTL and still have about 4% of my Portfolio in it and I particularly like the US opportunity and the history of delivering good returns. This has been a superb Stock and the gain is around 450% as my Average Buy Price was 74p. And I have picked up lots of Dividends on top. Lovely. Shows how 'Patience Pays' on Quality Stocks.
12/02/2020 Sold all my remaining Galliford Try GFRD Shares at 169p and Spreadbets at 168p. This was a rump of Holdings after the Vistry VTY (was Bovis BVS) purchase of the GFRD Linden Homes division which left just the Construction bit (roads etc.) and after all the problems and looking at the forecasts, I cannot imagine myself buying more GFRD and it was such a small rump that there just seems no point in holding it. So it has been dumped which frees up a Slot in the WD40 and I have a target in mind. I have no idea of the Profit/Loss situation on GRFD because the split and VTY deal has complicated things hugely - I could work it out but I have better things to do and very happy to have VTY now which looks pretty bullish on the chart.
28/01/2020 Opened a Long DFB Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3286 equivalent in Exposure to 10% of my Stock Portfolio. I have kept it qutie small because it is not something where I have huge conviction and if it goes against me I can quickly get out for little damage. I might buy more if the Charts signal to me that it is appropriate. We had quite a Pullback on Monday 27th Jan and Markets seem to have recovered quite well. I have a Stoploss at 3210 on an EOD (End of Day) basis with a Manual Trigger so I will execute myself if it hits the Stop, using a SharePad Chart to track progress. I am risking 0.2% of my Portfolio if it hits the Stop. My Target is over 3350 but I will run the Trade until I get a Signal to get out.
21/01/2020 Bought Hipgnosis Songs Fund SONG at 109p in my Normal ISA with about 1.5% of Portfolio Value and as a Small Starter Position. I have been tracking this for ages as I am sure Twitter Followers may have spotted and finally I have jumped on it as the Chart is making new Highs and it is still available with an expected Dividend Yield of about 4.6%. I like the 'quality' of the Song Catalogues they have been buying and I see these as mostly enduring and the whole Download thing is opening up music relatively cheaply to everyone and SONG will take a tiny Royalty cut on Songs they own the Rights to. I think this could be good for my Income Portfolio but I am hesitant because it is quite a new Fund and ideally I would like stuff that is more established and therefore in theory lower Risk for that Portfolio. SONG recently did a 'C' Shares issue but I don't see this as a problem because the Money raised is being invested in quality Catalogues which should generate good Income.
16/01/2020 Stopped out on S&P500 Short and manually Closed at 3317 (bit of slippage but no big deal). Cut out the emotion and take the Loss and move on - strict discipline is key. Cost me 0.15% of Portfolio Value but that is peanuts and I am pleased I controlled the damage. US Markets crazy overbought and with hindsight I did go a bit early on the Short (see my text just below) and it would perhaps have been better to have waited for a day for a 'Confirmation' down candle to confirm the Shooting Star. I will be watching closely for opportunity to Short again as bonkers overdone to the upside.
14/01/2020 Shorted (sold) S&P500 at 3286 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about 15% of my Long Shares Portfolio (it is 'US500' on igindex) and I have placed my Stoploss to be triggered and executed manually at 3310 on an End of Day Close basis. US Indexes have been overbought for a while with extremely high RSI readings and I have been looking for an opportunity to go short. I have jumped the gun a bit after today's Bearish Shooting Star candles but I have only done a small position and the Stop is not too far away so any damage if it keeps going up will be fairly small. If the Trade goes my way I might add a bit more but overall these Indexes are really bullish and I don't want to be Short in too big a way. If we do get a drop, then I will be looking for the time to close my Short and to go Long ('Stop and Reverse').
30/12/2019 Closed (Sold) both Long Spreadbets I had running on the S&P500 at 3220. Worked out quite nice with 127 Points of Profit on the first position after about 15 days but on the second position I just banked 11 Points but that was only 5 days. In total a Profit equivalent to 0.8% of my Portfolio value which is decent and played the Santa Rally quite well. On the first one it was 82% Return on the Margin used and on the second just 7%. Markets had a good run and as per my Blog from 29th December they look over-stretched and due a pullback. If they do continue to rally then I have plenty of Long Exposure via my Stocks and if we do pullback a bit, I will be looking for an opportunity to go Long again perhaps on the S&P500. It is my intention this year to do plenty of Index Trades but with the strict addition of Stoplosses.
19/12/2019 Bought another Long DFB Spreadbet on the S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3209 with a Stoploss at 3118 on an End of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger. I have also moved the Stoploss up to 3118 on the other Spreadbet Long I have running. The new one is the same size as the previous one so they amount to roughly 30% of my Share Portfolio value. I have placed this new Spreadbet in order to try to take advantage of a possible 'Santa Rally' which normally runs from a few days before Christmas Day and through the period to New Year and for a few days into January. I considered doing a Long Spreadbet on the FTSE100 but that one has been so affected by Forex moves this year that I decided I would prefer to just stick with the S&P500.
18/12/2019 Bought more Clinigen CLIN Shares at 904p. This one used to be Quantum Pharma QP. and indeed QP. is still one of CLIN's 3 Divisions which does Unlicenced Medicines (on the 'Educational Blogs' page under the 'Stock Buy Rationale' Category you should be able to find a Blog I wrote about QP. years ago). The other Divisions are one a bit like Alliance Pharma APH that buys up small Drugs and Medicines from the huge Healthcare/Pharma businesses that they no longer see as of sufficient scale, and CLIN focuses on them and grows them. The other Division supplies stuff to Clinical Trial Laboratories - so it is quite a nice diversified business and clearly healthcare is a great market to be in with population growth and aging and new innovations. It does not pay much Dividend at around 0.7% yield I think and it is on a forward P/E around 11 which is pretty attractive. There is a chunk of Debt but the Cashflow is very good and this is well manageable. The Chart has a nice Uptrend and it has just broken-out over 900p after a bit of a Triangle Consolidation - so a nice Chart setup. I put in another 1% of my Portfolio and now have roughly 2.5% in CLIN. Fingers Crossed !!
16/12/2019 Closed (bought back) the last FTSE100 Short Positions I had running via Spreadbets at 7524. It is painful to do this but I need to bite the bullet and get out of a situation which is likely to be precisely the wrong stance as we go into 2020 with the Political Outlook looking far more promising and with UK Stocks needing to do a lot of catch-up. This has cost me about 5% of my Portfolio when you add up the Loss on the Entry/Exit prices and you then factor in Interest Charges. It has been a frustrating experience with Hedging but it has taught me some crucial lessons and I am well placed for whatever the Markets chuck my way going fowards. In simple terms I will always be using Stoplosses on such Trades. It's a nice feeling to be 'square' for the year now and ready for 2020 with a clean slate.
13/12/2019 Bought Team17 TM17 Shares in my Normal ISA at 344p, equivalent to about 1% of my Portfolio and I expect to add more in time. Nice Uptrend and with the strength after Tory Election win it seems very likely the Uptrend can keep going and December is usually a strong month anyway (the strongest !!) and I want to take advantage. I have been after a Video Gaming Stock for a while as it is an extremely hot sector and I expect much more growth to come. If you go to WD2 there is a Blog under the 'Stock Ideas' category about TM17.
11/12/2019 Bought Gateley Holdings GTLY Shares in my 'Normal ISA' at 174p. Just a Starter Position for now around 1% but Chart broken out of Triangle Pattern recently and seems to have mood to keep pushing up. Bit scary on the day before the General Election but GTLY does have some defensive characteristics as a Law Firm and a Forward Dividend Yield of 4.9% and Forward P/E of 12.5 are attractive numbers on a growth stock. I wrote a blog about this recently which you should be able to find on the WD2 'Stocks & Markets' blog page. I expect to buy more GTLY in time - I will see how things play out.
3/12/2019 Opened (bought) Long Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 3093 with a Manual Trigger Stoploss at 3023, Position Size exposure equivalent to 15% of Long Shares Portfolio. Had a pullback last 2 days and tonight we have a 'Gap & Hammer' which looks a great signal to buy and if it doesn't work, my Stoploss should save me. December is the strongest month and recently the S&P500 broke-out to a new All Time High and this is very bullish (see my closure of S&P500 Short just below).
25/11/2019 Closed (bought back) S&P500 Short Spreadbet at 3132 taking a Loss equivalent to about 3.5% of Portfolio Value and roughly 5% when factoring in Interest Charges and Dividends paid (you pay Dividend on Short positions). Of course this was a Hedge so it is not quite the same as a direct Loss of 5% as I got the offset on my Longs but it is annoying and was avoidable anyway. As I mentioned in a recent Blog my approach to Hedging has been too 'Dumb' and my Hedging needs to be 'Smart' which simply means using a Stoploss and sticking to it strictly whatever happens (and it also means more care needed on Position Sizing). I have been looking to Close this Short as I mentioned in my Blogs ever since the US Markets broke-out to new All Time Highs recently as that is extremely Bullish behaviour. I was hoping for a bit of a Pullback so I could Close the Short at a better situation for me but sadly that is not to be as today the S&P500 made another ATH. Frustrating but rams home an important lesson. I still have the Short on the FTSE100 running.
19/11/2019 Sold Entertainment One ETO Shares at 557p and Spreadbets at 555.6p as it looks like the Takeover by Hasbro is a 'done deal' and I want to free up the Cash for possible use elsewhere and of course there is always a risk that the deal could fall through anyway. I was hoping for a higher bid than the 560p that you should receive if you wait for the process to play out, but there is little sign that this is happening. I have held the Shares for a long time having bought some in 2011, some in 2013 and some in 2016 but I have sold many chunks along the way and it has been a pretty sweet stock. Overall on this lot I made about 170% which isn't bad but I am not totally sure of the return on my Spreadbet position as my spreadsheets have got a bit muddled - it is at least 100% on the Exposure.
22/10/2019 Bought Hotel Chocolat HOTC at 420p. For now it is a Starter Position of about 1% of my Portfolio but I plan to buy more over time. HOTC is not 'cheap' on a Forward P/E of 40 but it has Cash and is a high quality business. Just done a Breakout to New All Time High on 3 year chart and that is very bullish behaviour. I hate paying high prices but in this case it is a stock I really want to hold long-term and I need to get on the train before it leaves the station. If it falls back I won't be concerned because it would be opportunity to buy more cheaper. If you go to the 'Educational Blogs' page I wrote a detailed 2-part Blog about HOTC dated 27th June 2019.
15/10/2019 Closed the S&P500 Shorts that I Opened just below this Entry at 2997. Markets generally showing Bullish signs and we are approaching the best time of the year for Markets. To me it doesn't make a lot of sense but I don't want to keep fighting a rising Market. I have taken a Loss equivalent to 0.5% of Portfolio Value which is fine and is best seen as the Premium for Insurance against Market falls which I don't think I now need. I still have a Small Short on the S&P500 and also one on the FTSE100 and these are massively reduced on what they were for most of this year so far and will be easy to 'manage' (it also means I have some Downside Protection still). I executed this before they reached the Stoploss Level and this is a rare example of me exhibiting some extremely necessary discipline for a change !! I am now about 50% Hedged if you calculate it purely using the raw exposure values but in practice my Portfolio of Stocks is much higher Beta and tends to rise/fall a lot faster than the Big Indexes do so the true Hedge is a lot less than this in practice.
7/10/2019 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 2936 with Stoploss on a Manual Trigger End of Day basis at 3030. Equivalent to about 10% of my Long Shares Portfolio so my Hedges are a fair bit bigger now. Shooting Star Reversal Candle today does not look good and 13/21 Day EMA Bear Crosses suggest more downside. October can be a funny month as well !!
1/10/2019 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 2938 with Stoploss on a Manual Trigger End of Day basis at 3030. This doubles my S&P500 Short and I am now about 30% Hedged via the S&P500 against my Long Portfolio of normal Stocks and I am about 30% Hedged via my current FTSE100 Shorts (so 60% Hedged in total). Markets certainly look toppy and the Nasdaq has done a 13/21 Day EMA Bear Cross and usually the S&P500 falls with it and that one is about to do a Bear Cross also but I have moved a shade early because things look wobbly.
23/9/2019 Bought more igIndex IGG for my Income Portfolio at 641p a Share - about £2500 worth so doubles the position I have in that portfolio. It's suffered of late following the ESMA Margin Rule changes but seems to be getting back on track and has an expected Dividend Yield of 6.7% which is backed by a decent Balance Sheet. I wrote a bit about IGG in my 'Weekend Markets Blog' from Sunday 22nd September 2019 and that sits on WD2. It goes Ex-Dividend on Thursday 26th September and I wanted to at least capture that as it effectively means I paid a bit less than 641p as I will get some Cash back soon !!
11/9/2019 Closed (bought back) the FTSE100 Short spreadbets I put on in mid-August at 7357 and I also Closed a sizeable chunk of the other spreadbet Shorts I have had running for most of 2019, but I have kept a 'Core' FTSE100 Short Position which is equivalent to about 30% of my Long Stock Portfolio (so I am roughly 30% Hedged plus the small S&P500 Short I have). I took a reasonable Loss equivalent to 0.6% of my Portfolio Value on the recent Shorts and I Closed them well before the Stoploss Levels I had designated because I sense that the Indexes want to move higher (in particular the FTSE100 is very near a Bull Cross on the 13/21 Day EMA and I don't want to be fighting the trend like I have all year !!). On the older Shorts I took a hit equivalent to about 2% of my Portfolio Value but you need to add Interest Charges and Dividends I have had to pay out (on Shorts you pay the Dividend, on Long Spreadbets you receive the Dividend) and this comes to another 1.5% of Portfolio Value. So overall these Closed Trades have cost me 4.1% of my Portfolio Value which stings a bit. However, my error here has not been in putting on the Hedges but in my poor execution. I should have obeyed the Stoploss Levels I put on the original Positions and not over-ruled them (or at least I should have Closed half of them). My other error has been in having Positions that were too big and that is something important I must remember for the future. Now I have a Core FTSE100 Short and this will be a lot easier to manage if the Markets continue to move up and I have Downside Protection if the Political mess and the usual trends of weakness in September and sometimes October kick in. I figure that I can quickly add more Short Positions in the FTSE100 if I feel the need to but I must use a Stoploss and obey it.
30/8/2019 Bought more Vodafone VOD for my Income Portfolio at 155.5p. It broke higher out of the Bull Flag pattern I had highlighted previously and I want to 'lock-in' the 5.3% Forward Dividend. I wrote a Blog about this which sits on the WD2 website and you should be able to find it under the 'Stock Buy Rationale' category. I put another £3000 in so now I have £6000 in VOD in my Income Portfolio which is up with the largest positions in that Account.
14/8/2019 Shorted FTSE100 a little bit more via a DFB Spreadbet at 7080 equivalent to 8% of Long Portfolio Value and half the size of the Short I did on the 12th August. Stoploss at 7460 on a Manual End of Day Close basis and I plan to lower that if the Trade plays out as I would expect. Break of important Support today and looks so weak. We are only half way through August yet have at least 2 months of Political Disaster to come and I expect much more poor Economic News on a Global basis. See the comments on my previous Short just below.
12/8/2019 Shorted FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7205 equivalent to 15% of my Long Portfolio Value and this is in addition to the Hedges I have had running for far too long !! I am using a STRICT Stoploss at 7520 which I will execute on a Manual End of Day Close basis. This raises my Average Open Price (remember this is a Short so it is like Averaging Down on a Stock but I am Averaging Up) and hopefully will help reduce the pain of the Interest Charges and Dividend Hit I have suffered in keeping these Hedges open. If you read my 'Weekly Performance' page and my regular 'Weekend Market Blogs' on WD2 then you will probably have noticed that I am very Bearish on the Markets and I think they could fall a fair bit. These Hedges give me protection but without having to sell any Shares and therefore keeping my Portfolio intact.
9/8/2019 Bought £3000 of Vodafone VOD at 149.5p a Share for my Income Portfolio. I have been stalking these for some time and although I am very nervous about the overall Markets, I wanted to use some of the chunky Cash Pile I have to 'get my foot in the door' on VOD because otherwise I will get distracted and forget all about it. Now it is on my ADVFN App Portfolio and on my SharePad Lists so I am watching it more closely and at some point I expect to be buying more of it - although this might now be until 2020 depending on how things play out. Buying today has 'locked in' 5.5% Dividend Yield expected next year and this should rise very slowly over time - this will never be an excitement Stock but as something reliable and tedious in my Income Portfolio this is ideal. It is also obviously a good 'swap' for the KCOM position I had which got taken-over and it is related to Telecoms still. With VOD I expect the nice chunky Dividend to continue (remember it has recently been cut so the odds are that it will be more sustainable now) and in the future it will benefit from 5g which has huge potential and of course VOD is a 'picks & shovels' play for the Internet of Stuff (IoT). I see VOD as a 'hold forever' Stock and I fully expect to be buying more over time. Oh, there is also a chance of a Takeover Bid. I was also acutely aware that my Cash was not earning Dividends and it is a fine balance with the Income Portfolio to have my Funds invested to maximise the Divvy gains but also to be able to buy advantageously when Markets are weak - as I expect they will be as the UK Economy looks nailed on for a Recession and Europe is no better. There is also an outside chance that VOD could be a target of takeover attention but that is not my sole reason for buying it. Oh, and they will be spinning off the Towers Business or selling it or something which would be good.
25/7/2019 Sold all my remaining holdings in Trifast TRI both normal Shares and a long Spreadbet. The Shares went for 192p and I made a 357% profit and the Spreadbet was closed at 189.5p which banked 56% on the exposure and about 225% on the Initial Margin used. Those are nice Returns but I have held for many years and I sold some TRI probably a couple of times before finally clearing them out but it has been sweet. I banked decent profits on the ones I topsliced before and I had lots of Dividends but of course the Spreadbets had some Interest Charges. TRI has been sliding for a while and I was beginning to wonder and then yesterday they put out an AGM Update and I just got the sense that things were starting to slow for their trading and they could easily put out a Warning in H2 and this would spank the shares hard. TRI are exposed to the Auto sector and that is particularly troubled at the moment and with my general concerns about over-hot markets and high valuations and a dodgy looking Global Economy, it sort of makes sense to just bank the gains and lower my risk. I like TRI a lot but it is a cyclical business and if we get into the down cycle then it could get hit hard. On paper TRI looks good value on a Forward P/E of 13 or so but of course if those Earnings Forecasts do not materialise then it is a lot more expensive than it appears. As always I didn't panic yesterday during the afternoon but once the Markets had closed I had a really calm think about it and decided to Sell out. It is certainly one I will track progress on in coming years and who knows?, I might end up buying it again in time.
24/6/2019 Bought a very small amount of LVCG Live Company Group at 51.7p, just a 'foot in the door' at this stage and I may buy more as the story develops and my confidence builds. It is very high risk and speculative but if things work out I think the upside could be quite tasty. Shard Capital recently put out some Forecasts and they look way too low and even on these low Forecast EPS figures, a forward P/E of 22 ish falling to 11 looks very good value. Recent Results show strong Revenue Growth and that was on 34 Shows whereas this year they are targeting 62 Shows - so Revenue should ramp up a lot. LVCG runs Shows under the BRICKLIVE banner which have things like Lego Dinosaurs and Zoo Animals and stuff and kids are mad for it. Also just signed deal with Nickolodeon UK whereby LVCG will create huge Lego models of Nickolodeon Characters like Paw Patrol etc. The continual flow of new Show agreements has been really impressive. My intention is to produce a short Blog about LVCG in coming weeks.
15/5/2019 Sold KCOM holding from my Income Portfolio at 97.5p following the Takeover Bid. Slightly strangely this is a shade higher than the Offer of 97p and I think it is because if I was to hold on I would pick up a Dividend Payment. Sometimes when the Price in the Market is higher than the Takeover Offer this tells you other Bidders are expected to enter but I do not think this is the case with KCOM and anyway if this is the situation then the Price tends to be quite a bit higher, not just a fraction. Anyway, I made 17% on it and have held a few years so I have picked up plenty of nice Dividends (the payout was around 5%+ on my Buy Price). I also sold a small Spreadbet I had and I took a Loss on that of about 13% on the exposure but this was a lot less than I gained on the Share Position so overall I am up a bit but to be honest it does feel like a lucky escape because KCOM has been rather troubled recently and I am not in any way sad to see it go. I now have money to Buy another Income Stock and I am stalking my prey on the savannah......
8/4/2019 Sold about 40% of my Holding in Entertainment One ETO at 463p as a Risk Management thing after a big move up and my Position was getting very over-sized. I still like ETO a lot and have about 3 or 4% of my Portfolio in it. I am not sure of the precise Profit but must have gained at least 100%+ as I have held for years after first buying at around 85p and I have topsliced before.
29/1/2019 Sold small remaining rump of Utilitywise UTW at just under 2p taking a massive hit of around 3% of Portfolio Value. The saga here has been long and painful and I had hoped that the new management would have been able to stabilise things and start a turnaround. Unfortunately they recently discovered yet more problems and have been unable to refinance the Debt pile and on top of this they need another £10m to fund the new Strategy they have devised. The Company has been put up for Sale but I cannot imagine that Shareholders will get a lifeline here so I got fed up with it and have cleared out the problem.
29/1/2019 Patisserie Valerie CAKE has gone into Administration after a significant fraud. This is very disappointing and nobody spotted the crime. 100% hit and annoyingly a lot of paper profit has gone up in smoke as well. Impact of about 4.6% of Portfolio Value as at start of 2019.
14/1/2019 Shorted FTSE100 a little more at 6858 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to about another 15% of my Long Portfolio exposure so now up to about 60% Hedged including the S&P500 Short. For simplicity reasons I am keeping Stoploss at 7225 as with the other Shorts but a Stop just above the Intraday High from Friday around 7015 would be nice and tight. As per my Blog from 13th Jan, it looks like the FTSE100 is pivoting down from the Inverted Hammer Candle from Friday. It is the Brexit T May Vote tomorrow and the Government is highly likely to lose this and it is obvious Weeks of uncertainty could lie ahead and Markets could be very soggy. With a large Short Position I feel quite well prepared for trouble ahead.
2/1/2019 Shorted S&P500 at 2487 via a Spreadbet DFB (US500 on igindex) - US Markets look very weak and I want more 'Hedge' to my Long Portfolio. Stoploss on Manual End of Day (EOD) Close basis at 2700 which is very wide because I want it to run for a while as the Markets are still looking very iffy. This adds about 10% more Hedge against my Long Portfolio and with the FTSE100 Shorts I have I am around 40% Hedged. That's probably enough but I might add a bit more US Short if I see a good opportunity.
10/12/2018 As per my 'Weekend Markets Blog' from 9/12/2018, I have halved my total Long Exposure on Individual Stock Spreadbets due to the Brexit fiasco and a significant technical Breakdown of Support on the Charts. This helps in 2 ways because it lowers the damage if Stocks fall more and it frees up Margin Cash so I am better cushioned if we do get more falls. I have Long Spreadbets on nearly all my Stocks and I in effect 'mirror' my Normal Shares with Spreadbets. I have been pretty ruthless and chopped a lot of losers and in particular I have entirely dumped Aggreko AGK which I only held as a Spreadbet but I bought it years ago and it went nasty on me and I thought the business would recover and give me a chance to buy more and Average Down but the business has been awful and not recovered even with new Management and I have bitten the bullet and dumped it. The upshot of all this is that I have 'banked' a Loss of 1.8% of my Total Portfolio Value but I am pretty relaxed about this because I am very happy to have lowered my Risk and Leverage and to have had a bit of a clear out. This also frees up a Slot in my WD40 and when the dust finally settles and I am in a mood to buy, then I could add something new to my Collection. The process I adopted was to pretty much halve my £s per Point Spreadbet size on each Position but there were a few I totally chopped as Spreadbets such as RDSB but I hold plenty of Shares in these. I reduced about 23 Positions and I took sizeable Losses on some like AA., STAN, AGK but I made chunky gains on TSTL, IOM, TRI, AVAP, DGOC, etc. I also took a lot of small losses and small gains.
7/12/2018 Shorted FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet a bit more at 6758 - same size as previous one I placed a few hours ago. US Markets very weak today and next week could be iffy with Brexit Vote etc. I am now about 20% Hedged on my Long Portfolio. Stoploss the same at 7225 on an EOD Close basis - I expect to need Protection for a while.
7/12/2018 Shorted FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 6800 equivalent to about 10% of my Long Portfolio. I want some Hedge Protection because the Breakdown of the Range which ran from 7200 to 6860 yesterday was a very Bearish Technical development and with Brexit a total mess it seems like a decent December is very unlikely. I want to keep this Short for a while so initially I will have a wide Stoploss and put it above the Range at 7225 on an End of Day Close basis but if the Trade goes my way I will look to lower it. I might Short more if I see a need to but for now I am happy to have a bit of protection on. It strikes me that the FTSE100 will have to work wonders to even get back into that Range let alone get up over it. If you look at my latest 'Weekend Markets Blog' from Dec 2nd on WD2 that has a FTSE100 Chart showing the Range.
27/11/2018 Closed all S&P500 Shorts at 2687 banking a small Profit worth 0.15% of my Portfolio Value. This was a very difficult decision as I like to have some Hedge (Downside Insurance) against my Portfolio but it looks like the US Markets want to turn up and of course it is impossible to know how far up they can rise (if at all !!). I decided to Close the Positions and sit it out and I can always slap more Shorts on again quite quickly if I feel the need. We are coming into December which is the strongest Month of the Year so having Shorts on might not be the best plan - despite the Brexit screw ups being perpetrated by T May.
22/11/2018 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) a bit more at 2638 via a DFB Spreadbet, adding about another 5% of Hedge to my Long Portfolio - see the Trades below and now I am up to about 25% Hedged. Markets are clearly weak and I think the potential for nasty surprises around the Brexit Parliamentary Vote are considerable and it could mean Theresa May getting the Boot and various unpleasant scenarios. I might Short a little bit more next Week.
14/11/2018 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) a tiny bit more at 2699 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to another 5% of my Long Portfolio. Now up to 20% Hedged which feels about right now. Stoploss same as previous Shorts at 2825 on an EOD Close basis with a Manual trigger. Intend to lower Stoploss as appropriate as the Trade develops.
14/11/2018 Sold Janus Henderson Global Technology Unit Trust which I held outside of ISA Wrapper and Bought Polar Capital Technology Investment Trust PCT at 1147p within my ISA. I see Tech as a 'Long Term Hold Forever' kind of thing and I want to have exposure but the Nasdaq looks weak so I have only bought 1% of my Portolio in PCT so far but I intend to buy more. I had about 2.5% in the Henderson Unit Trust. This has freed up Cash outside my ISA as well.
13/11/2018 Shorted S&P500 a bit more at 2727 via DFB Spreadbet (US500 on igindex) - done another 5% of my Long Portfolio so now about 15% Hedged. Same Stoploss as below at 2825 on End of Day Close basis with Manual Execution. US Indexes look weak and nearing 50/200 Day MA 'Death Crosses'.
12/11/2018 Shorted S&P500 at 2728 via a DFB Spreadbet (US500 on igindex) equivalent to about 10% of Long Portfolio value. Stoploss at 2825 with manual operation on End of Day Close basis. Markets especially in the US look weak and recent Rally soon run out of puff and Brexit a joke so I wanted some Hedge/Insurance. FTSE100 reacting to Pound again so probably not the best Index to use for a Hedge.
26/10/2018 Closed FTSE100 Shorts at 6994 for a tiny Loss equivalent to about 0.05% of Portfolio Value. I am typing this text on Friday Night but I actually did this Trade on Thursday - I tweeted it out at the time but due to my ongoing Health Problems at the moment I was unable to update the Website. Of course with Hindsight I am gutted about this as the FTSE100 was ropey today and fell over 100 Points so if I had kept the trade running, it would have been very nice. Anyway this is all very useless and in the Real World we have to make Trading Decisions on the Facts at the time and on Thursday Night we had a decent Hammer Candle on the FTSE100 and many Big Stocks in the Index were giving similar Signals. The RSI was very low and the FTSE100 had moved up off the Bottom Bollinger Bands which suggested a Rise was the most likely probability. In addition the US Markets were rallying hard and the DAX and CAC40 looked promising as well. It is pretty typical with Hindsight but the truth is that this was a Good Decision at the time and I only took a small Loss on it. As we stand now, it looks to me like we are through the worst of the recent huge Selloff. I also dislike holding such Positions over the Weekend so that was another reason for Closing it out.
24/10/2018 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more at 6984 via a DFB Spreadbet - now got about 15% of my Long Portfolio hedged. I don't like how the FTSE100 was unable to hold the High of the Day and this is typical of a Downtrend. The Breakdown of Support yesterday was important and the Rally afterwards soon ran out of puff. With Brexit Uncertainty and US Midterms in 2 Weeks I think Markets could stay painful for a bit. The European Indexes like CAC40 and DAX look very ugly as well. I have put a Stoploss at 7150 for all my Shorts and this is a Manual Trigger on an End of Day Close basis. I might Short a little more but I now feel happy with the 'Insurance' I have.
23/10/2018 Shorted FTSE100 via DFB Spreadbets at 6971 and 6974 equivalent to about 10% of Long Exposure in total. I'm not happy with how Markets have failed to bounce back after recent falls and I think we could see more drops. Things are very uncertain around Brexit and I think this will continue to keep people cautious and unwilling to buy heavily.
11/10/2018 Closed (bought back) FTSE100 Short at 7026. Looks very oversold and Friday tomorrow so perhaps Shorters will be buying back Stocks to close out their week. It was a tiny Position so not really Hedging Portfolio much so decided to Close it. Banked Profit equivalent to 0.05% of Portfolio !!
10/10/2018 Shorted FTSE100 at 7096 via a DFB Spreadbet equivalent to 5% of Long Portfolio with Stoploss at 7260 on Manual EOD Close basis. Markets very moody and Key Support has failed so I want some Insurance via a Hedge. Kept it small because has fallen a fair bit already but it looks like an EU Exit Deal will happen in next few days and this could boost £ which may hurt FTSE100. October following usual crazy reputation !!
9/10/2018 Switched out of AXA Framlington Health Unit Trust which I held outside an ISA wrapper and bought WWH Worldwide Healthcare Investment Trust at 2740p in my ISA. I think Low is in for the Pound and these Funds have a lot of US exposure so I have gone from about 3% of Portfolio in AXA Framlington down to 2% in WWH. They hold similar Stocks (not too much higher risk Biotech) but WWH has outperformed a lot. This is a 'Hold Forever' position for me. I wanted to free up Cash outside ISA.
9/10/2018 Closed FTSE250 Short at 19722 banking a Profit around 0.3% of Long Portfolio value - not great but new ESMA Deposit Rates mean smaller Positions. Markets sold off a lot and a bounce seems likely especially with RSI down around 28,
4/10/2018 Shorted FTSE250 at 20139 via DFB spreadbet equivalent to another 4% of my Long Portfolio. Keeping Stoploss at 20900 for now on Manual EOD Close basis.
3/10/2018 Shorted FTSE250 at 20280 via a DFB spreadbet with igindex equivalent to about 7% of Long Portfolio. Market clearly weak and I want some Hedge protection as we go into final weeks of Brexit talks. FTSE250 in well defined downtrend channel; near 50/200 day MA Death Cross and 13/21 day EMA Death Cross in force. Set Stoploss at 20900 on a Manual End of Day basis - set wide so it has wiggle room.
12/09/2018 Closed both FTSE100 Shorts at 7293, banking a Profit equivalent to 0.3% of Portfolio Value. Looks like FTSE100 wants to turn up and even though I am keen to Hedge, I think I can get another Short on fast if I sense the need to do so. Banked a Return on the Deposit Margin of about 30% in a few Days so Leverage still worked well despite the huge increase in Margin Requirements.
6/09/2018 Sold Esure ESUR Shares at 278.6p and Spreadbet at 278p as Takeover Deal looks 'done' and as usual I just wanted to Bank the Cash, especially in current turgid Markets when Cash can be very useful. The numbers are a bit complicated here due to the GoCompare GOCO spin-out a while ago but I have held for years and I reckon I am up about 50% and I have received loads of Big Dividends.
5/09/2018 Shorted FTSE100 a little bit more at 7386 on a DFB Spreadbet with a Position equivalent to about 5% of Long Portfolio - so now 15% Hedged. Stoploss this time at 7550 on EOD Close basis with Manual Trigger. Market fell a lot today and I am 'pushing the position'.
4/09/2018 Shorted FTSE100 at 7450 via a DFB Spreadbet with Position equivalent to about 10% of Long Portfolio. Stoploss at 7650 on an End of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger. Target 7100. Markets very weak and September has a poor history as 'the worst month' and Brexit clearly increasing caution and uncertainty. I wanted some Hedge protection and I have gone for a wide Stop because I want the Position to run for a while even if things get choppy.
27/08/2018 Closed S&P500 Short Spreadbet at 2898 after hitting Stoploss, taking a small Loss equivalent to 0.1% of Portfolio Value. Frustrating that Shorts are so difficult on US Markets but there is without doubt an underlying bullishness especially in Tech. In order to Hedge I am thinking FTSE250 might be more suitable and a good Trigger might be to only Short after a 13/21 Day EMA 'Death Cross' - this could cut out much Noise from shorter term Signals. Fortunately it was only a small Position so damage not too bad.
23/08/2018 Shorted (Sold) S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via DFB spreadbet at 2857 equivalent to about 8% of my Long Exposure. Stoploss at 2880 on End of Day Close basis with manual trigger. Target 2700. Coming up to historically weakest month and Brexit and US midterm elections are piling on uncertainty. Technically S&P500 seems to be turning down from Inverted Hammer candle on Tuesday. Other indexes similar and I want to hedge my portfolio a bit.
15/08/2018 Sold a bit more Water Intelligence WATR at 420p so now got about 1.5% of Portfolio still in them and I will keep that. Wanted to lower Risk after a strong run up and in general I am trying to build Cash so this is in line with that Strategy. Banked 220% Profit in probably just over a year so very pleased.
2/08/2018 Closed (Bought back) S&P500 Short Spreadbet at 2831 taking a Loss equivalent to 0.05% of Portfolio Value - so a very small hit. Bullish Engulfing Candle today and I don't want to be Short before US Non-Farm Payrolls at 1.30pm UK Time on Friday. My latest thinking is that if I put a Short on and it does not go my way straight away, then I should Close the Position fast and not wait for it to hit the Stoploss - that is a Backstop.
30/07/2018 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 2804 equivalent to 5% of Long Portfolio. Margin Rates much higher and I want a bit of Insurance but not a large Position. Stoploss at 2855 on an EOD Close basis with a Manual Trigger.
12/07/2018 Sold about a third of my Water Intelligence WATR holding at 360p. Wanted to lower Risk/Exposure on a Small Stock after a superb run up and banked a lovely 177% Profit. As always it's a Trade-off between these elements and yet keeping a decent Position in a good Stock - ultimately I expect it will go higher. Generally I am being cautious and want to lower Risk and build Cash. Still got about 2% of Total Portfolio Value in WATR.
5/07/2018 Closed (Bought back) S&P500 Short Spreadbet (US500 on igIndex) at 2763 after my Stoploss at 2752 was triggered on an EOD Close basis. The 'Slippage' is not ideal but I am not really aware of a way to avoid this. I took a Loss equivalent to 0.2% of my Long Portfolio Value which is clearly a tiny amount and I am happy that I have controlled the Trade and it looks like my Hedge is not needed.
4/07/2018 Sold (Closed) half of Long Spreadbet on Fevertree FEVR at 3388p. Great company and I still want to hold it (got Shares as well) but had a strong run up and Valuation is looking really extreme so I decided to bank some Profit and lower Risk a bit but I am still involved and see no reason to sell out entirely. Made about 55% on the Exposure in around 10 months and it could be as silly as 250% on the Capital used as Margin because it was a Leveraged Trade - as always it's great when it goes your way but hurts a lot when you are on the wrong side !!
27/06/2018 Shorted (Sold) S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 2704 via a Spreadbet on the Sep18 contract equivalent to about 10% of my Long Portfolio Value. Stoploss at 2752 on an End Of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger. Chart done a 13/21 Day EMA Death Cross and a '3 Inside Down' Candle Pattern. Just wanted a Small Hedge in these 'challenging' Markets.
14/06/2018 Sold Golden Prospect GPM Shares at 29p and Spreadbet at 28.6p taking a Loss equivalent to about 0.8% of Portfolio Value. I am keeping the Options we were given for now. It is annoying to take the Loss but Gold is simply proving to be a useless metal which doesn't help when there is Inflation and neither when there is Deflation - it doesn't "do what it says on the tin". Frees up Cash but I am in no great rush to buy anything.
4/06/2018 Closed (Bought back) S&P500 Short Spreadbet at 2746 taking a Loss equivalent to 0.2% of Portfolio Value as I put this on as a hedge when the Italy government fears were kicking off. Things seem to have calmed down and Markets look Bullish if anything so I Closed the Hedge just before its Stoploss. Mixed feelings as I didn't need the Short in the end and obviously I have gained lots on the rises in my Long Portfolio - but it is a tiny Loss so I kept things under control.
29/05/2018 Shorted (Sold) S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via a DFB Spreadbet at 2693 equivalent to about 10% of my Total Long Exposure and with Stoploss at 2750 which would be triggered on an End of Day Close basis and operated manually. Italy is looking very messy and June is often a very bad month so I wanted some small 'Insurance' to hedge my Portfolio. The Technical picture is mixed so I have not gone too big and if it gets worse, then I can add more.
23/05/2018 Closed (Sold) one third of Long Spreadbet Position on Royal Dutch Shell RDSB at 2755p - still got loads and normal Shares but wanted to lower Exposure a bit as they have done really well lately. Held for quite a long time but made about 35% on the Exposure but a Leveraged Trade so actual Return on Capital is really high - around 300% ish. Still happy to hold the rest Long Term.
23/05/2018 Bought 3500 Shares in Primary Health Properties PHP at 112p worth just under £4000. Been stalking if for a while and finally pounced. Dividend Yield just under 5% and should be very reliable as generated from Health Centres backed by Government Payments in UK and Ireland. Quite a high Premium to NAV which is not something I particularly like but I think worth paying up. If drops I can buy more. I intend to publish a 'Buy Rationale' Blog on this soon.
8/05/2018 Sold Sainsbury SBRY Shares from my Income Portfolio at 296p banking a Profit over about 4 years of 9% but of course I picked up just over 4% Dividends each year. I recently sold a Spreadbet on SBRY and I have never been convinced by Argos Deal and the recent Asda Buy just adds more Risk and despite Defensive qualities of the Sector it strikes me that I can get a safer Dividend Payout with lower Risk from other Stocks so I will be looking to buy 1 or 2 replacements in coming Weeks. Challenge from Amazon and the Discounters like Aldi and Lidl just makes things very tough for SBRY.
27/04/2018 Closed FTSE100 Short Spreadbet at 7510 after Stoploss Triggered - taking a Loss of 0.25% of Portfolio Value. I am frustrated by this because I have had a run of Losing Index Trades recently and I was trying to be more patient and only Trading on what looks like High Probability Set-ups (of course this one could well have been 'ticking all the boxes' but still go wrong - that is what the Stoploss is for). I had a chat with Wayne Shand (@ws1 on Twitter) a few days ago and he mentioned to me that I should not really view these as Individual Trades as such but to see them as Hedges and to remember that because the Markets have risen anyway I have made money overall and that is what matters. In addition, I was at the Mello Event in Derby and even though I did not see his Presentation, someone mentioned to me that the legendary Leon Boros (@Boros10 on Tweets) said in the Talk that his Index Trades overall seem to pretty much break-even but the value to him was that using Index Shorts to Hedge resulted in him being able to be far more relaxed in difficult Markets and it supported calm and rational Decision making and it keeps his Long Portfolio of Stocks intact. This is interesting because it shows how hard Index Trading is (Leon is one of the most successful Private Investors in the UK and a multiple ISA-Millionaire), but I am also intrigued to hear that he uses a similar Hedging Strategy to that which I am trying to perfect. Anyway, another shortcoming with this particular Trade was a large amount of 'Slippage' - my Stoploss was put at 7445 but because I did not Trigger it until 7510, the Monetary Loss was double what it could have been (I actually Closed the Spreadbet via my Fone when in the Bar at the Mello gig !!). This is a difficult one because the only likely solution that I can see is to put a Firm Stoploss with my Spreadbet Provider (igIndex) but the 'Out of Hours / Futures' nature of these Index Spreadbets may mean I get spiked out overnight or something - I guess perhaps I should try it and see how it goes. Apart from all that, the other conclusion is that yet again I have been taught how poor the FTSE100 is for such Trades due to its heightened responses to the value of the Pound - clearly I must stop using it.
24/04/2018 Shorted FTSE100 via DFB Spreadbet at 7369 equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio. US Markets dropped heavily and it seems likely this mood could infect UK and Europe markets. I just wanted some 'Hedge' to lower my Long Risk and I expect Today's Candlestick to mark a Turning Point so I have placed my Stoploss at 7445 (just above today's High Point) which I will operate manually on an End Of Day (EOD) Close basis.
20/04/2018 Closed (Bought back) FTSE100 Short at 7364 after my Stoploss at 7330 was triggered, taking a fairly painful Loss equivalent to 0.35% of Portfolio Value. I have mixed feelings about this Trade and much of it will be prone to Hindsight/Outcome Bias - on the positive side of things I executed the Trade as per the Trading Plan when I opened it which is pleasing from a Discipline point of view and as always each Trade is a Learning Experience to help train my brain into making better Trades. I suspect I was too eager to put a Trade on here as I have been focusing a lot on my Index Trading what with the Blogs and stuff and perhaps that drove me to take a Trade too early on some fairly inconclusive early Signals. It's funny because I even remember writing in my Blog from last Sunday that a Short or a Long Trade would be best if the Bottom or Top of the Range were broken and yet I tried to snatch a Trade that was inside the Range. I also placed the Short on a Monday Night and I am starting to think that moves on a Monday and a Friday often throw up false Signals and are not ideal to rely on. In addition, I even wrote in the Entry for the Trade from 16/04/2018 below that a Tighter Stoploss at 7280 could be used and thinking about it that would make more sense - a Stoploss should be in effect where my Trade starts to go 'wrong'. It also seems that by doing a Short I was actually going against the Major Trend and it is worth bearing in mind that Markets tend to Rise more than Fall in general so Long Trades will always have a slight advantage. It might be best to only Short at clear Turning Points where the Market has run up a lot and the RSI is very high or perhaps if a Key Support Line fails. I have had a run of losing Trades now and I need to be very careful to choose Trades where I have a high probability of being right. My insistence on Stoplosses being Triggered on an EOD Close basis means that 'slippage' can be a problem and clearly that happened here where the Stoploss was at 7330 but I suffered another hit of 34 Points which is a fair bit of additional cost. If this keeps being a problem I might need to use Firm Stoploss Orders with igIndex.
17/04/2018 Closed (Sold) Long Spreadbet on Sainsburys SBRY at 253p for a small Profit having bought a while back at 247p. It has run up steeply recently and did a 'Dark Cloud Cover' 2 Day Candlestick pattern which suggests a drop is coming. I still hold as normal Shares in my Income Portfolio but in terms of the Spreadbet Trade it has not really worked as I wanted and this is me getting out of a difficult position. Overall I am keen to lower Long Exposure and this fits that strategy. SBRY seems to be doing ok but it is not an exciting business in any way.
16/04/2018 Shorted (Sold) FTSE100 via a DFB Spreadbet at 7193 equivalent to 15% of Long Portfolio. Stoploss at 7330 on EOD Close basis with Manual Trigger (alternative is 7280 but I wanted more 'wiggle room'). It is a tough call but FTSE100 turned down off 3 small Doji Candles and come off Upper Bollinger Band. Heiken Ashi Candles turned Red. I just wanted some Insurance and I will Close fast if turns up.
9/04/2018 Closed (Sold) Long Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) at 2616 taking a tiny Loss equivalent to 0.12% of Portfolio Value. Simply not happy with how the Trade has been going and rather than wait for Stoploss to trigger and to lose more I decided to step away and see how things play out with a view to possibly placing another Trade in coming Days if something suitable sets up. It might have come across in my Charts Blog from last night that my bias is towards bearishness and if anything I suspect my next Index Trade is likely to be a Short.
26/03/2018 Bought (Long) Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) using DFB at 2659 with Stoploss at 2575 on End Of Day Close basis with Manual Trigger. This means 84 Points of loss if the Trade goes against me and I use this to work out my '£s per Point' (how much Total £s loss is acceptable on the Trade?). This gives me an Exposure equivalent to 7.5% of my Long Portfolio Value so it is quite a small Spreadbet but discipline is important. Nice Up Candle today off 200 Day MA and RSI 44 rising and up off Bottom Bollinger Band. Heiken Ashi Candles narrowing and Renko bullish looking. My Stoploss was placed just under the Low of the Candle from Friday 23rd March which I think is a Turning Point.
23/03/2018 Closed (Bought back) FTSE100 Short Spreadbets at 6933 and 6934 - banking a Profit equal to 0.5% of my Portfolio Value. FTSE100 did a Hammer Candle type Reversal today although not the best one I have seen and RSI pretty low around 32 which is the kind of reading it often turns up from. Off bottom Bollinger Band and many big FTSE100 Stocks look poised to bounce and FTSE250 got a gorgeous Hammer reversal. I might not have hit the precise bottom but I think it is close enough and 'Monday reverses Friday' happens a lot so I don't want to 'carry' my Shorts over the weekend. No doubt I will show all this in a Charts Blog on Sunday night and early next week I will be looking to put a Long Trade on to try to milk any bounce. Overall not a bad Trade and it's nice to make on a Trade as the Markets drop and it hugely helps the psychology aspects of such trying Markets.
22/03/2018 Bought Empiric Student Property ESP at 86p in my normal Trading ISA - I already hold a few in my Income Portfolio and I had sold a Spreadbet Position by pure luck just before they had problems. Anyway, there's been a huge shake up with old CEO getting the boot and new FD brought in who is really doing an excellent job at reining in the uncontrolled growth and focusing on Operational Control and making the Business operate in an efficient way to maximise returns on the Properties. At moment the Dividend is uncovered by Earnings but the FD says they will be fully covered next year and I believe her because she is doing exactly the right things to turn it around. The forecast Divvy is 5.7% and the NAV is 104p (with some hidden value in the Properties) so I expect some nice upside as the Discount closes over time and going forwards I think we will see ESP deliver on the expectations I had around the IPO. Got just over 1% of my Trading Portfolio in them and will be looking to do a Long Spreadbet as well. Chart moved sideways out of the Downtrend Channel and poised to recover I think.
22/03/2018 Sold about 1/3 of my Air Partner AIR Position at 149p - great Company but done quite well and I just wanted to TopChop a bit to lower Risk on what is quite a small Company - still got around 2.5% of Portfolio in it. It's a bit confusing because they did a 5 for 1 Share Split but I reckon I made about 100% on it and some I had held for about a year and others I had for a few years. Had nice Divvys as well.
21/03/2018 Shorted FTSE100 via DFB Spreadbet at 7018 - doubling previous Position so now got about 30% equivalent of my Long Portfolio exposure. Indexes all look weak and I want more hedging. Stoploss on this one 7210 on End of Day Close basis, manual trigger.
19/03/2018 Shorted FTSE100 via a Spreadbet at 7055 on the DFB Contract, equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio, with Stoploss at 7260 on an End Of Day Close basis with a Manual Trigger. I have used a fairly wide Stoploss to allow for a Short Term Bounce but with the breakdown of Critical Support at 7062 today along with recent 50/200 Day MA 'Death Cross' this looks very weak. I will monitor the Trade and might add a bit if I see more weakness etc. US Indexes have broken the Triangles I mentioned in my Blog from 18th March which is not good but overall the US Indexes look stronger than the UK. I have Shorted to 'Hedge' my Long Portfolio a bit and to take out some 'insurance' against more falls.
12/03/2017 Closed (Sold) FTSE100 Long Spreadbet at 7194 - banked Profit equal to 0.1% of Portfolio Value and 150% ROCE in a Week (the joys of Leverage when it goes your way !!). Signs that Indexes want to ease back and FTSE100 stuck in a Range between about 7050 at the bottom and 7315 at the top - until it breaks out either above or below, it is easier to stand aside and let the Range play out. If it breaks down I will probably Short it and a break higher would be a Buy Signal. See my latest Charts Blog from 11/3/2018. It's disappointing not to bank more Profit but until the signs are clearer I am happy to wait.
6/03/2018 Bought Hostelworld HSW Shares at 399p, about 1% of Portfolio Value so with Spreadbets now have 2% in them. Fwd P/E 20 not cheap particularly but 3.6% Divvy expected next year and talk of a possible Special Dividend as Cash Generation strong. Has upwards momentum - see Blogs for Buy Rationale I did on this one.
5/03/2018 Bought FTSE100 Spreadbet at 7142 on Mar18 Contract. Looks like Markets are rebounding and I have placed a Stoploss just below the Bullish Harami 2-day Candlestick Pattern at 7050 on an EOD Close basis. Kept Position small at about 15% of Portfolio Value as FTSE100 seems to be in a Range up to just over 7300. As per my Blog, in big picture I have concerns about the FTSE100 which makes me reluctant to go Long in a big way.
5/03/2018 Closed (bought back) S&P500 Short (US500 on igindex) at 2719, taking a small loss of less than 0.2% of Portfolio Value. Annoying to have to take a loss but the key is to keep losses small and no point fighting when it looks like trend has changed. See my Blog from 4th March to see the Technical picture.
2/03/2018 Sold KCOM Shares at 102p from my Trading ISA - I had an 'odd' amount and see it as an Income Plodder and don't want to buy more in my more growth focused ISA. KCOM had good run up in recent weeks and I am taking advantage of this. I am keeping KCOM in my Income Portfolio and as Spreadbets. I banked about 10% on the Shares and have had lots of big dividends. This frees up some Cash and lowers Risk with Markets looking a bit wobbly. There are other Stocks I would prefer to use the Cash to topup on when things calm down.
1/03/2018 Doubled my Short on S&P500 via Spreadbet on Mar'18 Contract at 2678 (US500 on igindex). Charts look ropey with '3 Black Crows', on verge Bearish MACD Cross, Support failure, Big Red Heiken Ashi Candles etc. - all Indexes look bad. I am taking out more 'Insurance' to Hedge my Long Portfolio. Stoploss on this one at 2765 on EOD Close basis with manual trigger. Now got about 20% of my Long Portfolio hedged in this way.
1/03/2018 Sold Telecom Plus TEP Spreadbet Position at 1232p but this was only half - just want to lower Risk and free up some Cash and my TEP Exposure was quite large. Still got normal Shares. Made about 20% Profit on the Exposure but of course on the Capital Used it was far higher as a Leveraged Position.
1/03/2018 Sold Royal Mail Group RMG Shares at 548p from my iDealing Account - this was an odd amount and came from the original IPO many years ago. Had big move up lately so I took advantage of it to do some tidying up. Banked about 66% Profit and had lots of Dividends. Keeping Shares in Income Portfolio and have some Long Spreadbets.
28/02/2018 Shorted S&P500 via Spreadbet (US500 on igindex) on Mar18 Contract at 2718, equivalent to about 10% of my total Long Portfolio with a Stoploss at 2795 on an End of Day (EOD) Close basis with a Manual Trigger. 2 Days of falls and Technical signs look weak - just wanted some downside insurance.
22/02/2018 Closed (Sold) both Long Spreadbets I had on the FTSE100 at 7225 - as with S&P500 below, I am just not happy with how Charts are looking and wanted to reduce long exposure. Banked a Profit overall equivalent to 0.1% of Portfolio Value, which was a Return on the Margin used of about 20% because the Margin Requirements were much higher than on the S&P500 Trade below. Still a good Return in a few Days though.
22/02/2018 Closed (Sold) S&P500 Long Spreadbet at 2712 - just not happy with how Charts are looking and wanted to reduce Long Exposure - I can easily put a Long Spreadbet on again if things improve and I have lots of Stocks anyway so I will benefit if Stocks do rise. I banked a Profit equivalent to 0.2% of Portfolio Value and the Trade gave a Return on the Capital used for Margin of just under 200% in a few days.
14/02/2018 Bought another FTSE100 Long Spreadbet at 7195 on the Mar18 Contract so I now have a total Position equivalent to about 25% of my Long Portfolio. All Major Indexes are recovering nicely since the Lows of last week and I want to exploit this situation. As with my other Position, my Stoploss is at 7070 and I will trigger it manually if the Index falls below this level on an End of Day Close basis.
13/02/2018 Bought S&P500 (US500 on igindex) Long Spreadbet at 2663 on Mar18 Contract equivalent to about 10% of Long Portfolio Exposure. Stoploss set at 2575 to be triggered on an EOD Close basis with a Manual execution. Nice white Up Candles since Long Tail Hammer from Friday and Heiken Ashi Candles gone white. RSI 44 and rising.
6/02/2018 Bought FTSE100 Long Spreadbet at 7203 on the Mar18 Contract equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio of Stocks. RSI extremely low and Closed well up off the Lows today and I have set a Stoploss at 7070 to be triggered by me on a Manual EOD (End of Day) basis.
6/02/2018 Closed (bought back) S&P500 (US500 on igindex) at 2682. Banked Profit equal to about 0.5% of Long Portfolio - not bad but shame Position wasn't larger - it ran away from me before I could add to it. Amazing Return on Margin used around 1000% in days. Been big Sell-off on Markets and I think we are near Bottom with low RSI Readings and what looks like a 2 Day Reversal Pattern on the Candlesticks today. Mainstream TV News freaking out and this is usually a good sign that the Bottom is in.
30/01/2018 Shorted (Sold) S&P500 (US500 on igindex) at 2822 on the Mar18 Contract equivalent to about 10% of Long Portfolio Total Value. Stoploss at 2880 to be triggered manually on an End Of Day (EOD) Close basis. May add to this Short if continues to fall.
29/01/2018 Bought EU Supply EUSP Shares at 14.5p but this is a very small Company with Market Cap around £9m so I have gone for about 0.5% of my Portfolio Value. They do Procurement and Contract Management Software and what brought my attention to them was the flow of Orders they keep winning - and these will result in Recurring Revenues in the future with the Software being quite 'sticky' once a customer is using it. They have been loss making for some years but Revenues have been rising and this year they will report a tiny Profit. Next year they are forecast to make £0.7m and I expect this to grow in time. I hope to speak to these guys at the Shares Tech Event tomorrow and I wanted to buy in before the Show as the price could easily rise afterwards !! They have a bit of Cash but it is possible they will raise more in future I suspect if they want to grow faster by acquisition etc. It is quite a Competitive Market but the flow of Orders show EUSP are pretty good at navigate it.
26/01/2018 Sold Conygar CIC Shares at 152p. Only had a tiny Position and felt not much I could do with it because I have held for years and despite apparent Value (big discount to NAV) it just does nothing. In addition, the Newsflow seems to have a negative tinge and just yesterday there was yet more Bad News and that tipped me over the edge. Another irritation is that they pay no Dividend whereas most Commercial Property Stocks do pay a decent Dividend - that grates on my nerves !! With such reservations I could not justify buying more and with only around 1% of Portfolio Value there seems little point in keeping it. I want to free up Slots and Cash so that was another driver. On the Shares I lost 10% which is about 0.1% of Portfolio Value so the impact is minimal.
22/01/2018 Closed (Bought back) S&P500 (US500 on igindex) Short Spreadbet at 2836 - smashed through my Stoploss Trigger which was at 2812. Took a hit of only 0.2% of total Portfolio Value - so Risk fairly well controlled although in terms of Return on Capital it is a 300% Loss (due to Gearing/Leverage) !! Irritating and surprising but with Market so Bullish it is very difficult to make Shorts work. Pleased I kept Position small (plan was to add if went my way) and followed my rules. Discipline.
16/01/2018 Shorted (Sold) S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via a Spreadbet at 2782 on the Mar18 Contract, equivalent to about 10% of my Total Long Exposure, with a Stoploss at 2812 which will be manually triggered on an End of Day Close basis if exceeded. Markets very over-extended and RSI Readings at highest ever almost, so I have taken a small bit of 'insurance' to hedge my Portfolio. If goes my way, I might add more. 'Dark Cloud Cover' 2 Day Candlesticks a decent Sell Trigger.
8/01/2018 Closed (Sold) both S&P500 Long Spreadbets I had running at 2746 (US500 on igindex) banking a Profit equal to about 0.5% of Portfolio Value so not a bad Trade - this was leveraged so the Return on Capital was chunky (400% at least). As per my 'Greased Whippet....' blog, US Markets look stretched Short Term and with UK ones looking like turning down I wanted to lower my Long Exposure. I am still hugely Long anyway so if Markets keep rising I will do OK anyway. I might consider going Long again if we get a decent Pullback.
28/12/2017 Bought Hostelworld HSW via a Spreadbet (got no spare Cash in ISA) at 387p on the Sep'18 Contract - equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Value. I have been after these for a while and if you look on the Blog Page there is a detailed blog on it. Looks reasonable value with a Forward Divvy of 3.7% expected next year rising to 4% the following year. Chart doing a 'Triangle Squeeze' and looks like it will breakout to a new All Time High very soon. I love the Internet aspects of HSW and the dominance it has in the Hostel niche is very impressive. Seems a solid combination of Growth potential and Income via the Divvy. I expect to buy more during 2018 but I need to sell something else to get Cash and to free up a WD40 'Slot' - I now have 42 Stocks so I have bent the rules a bit !!
18/12/2017 Bought another Long Spreadbet on S&P500 (US500 on igindex) at 2696 on the Mar'18 Contract - same size as earlier one around 10% of my Long Exposure. As before I am trying to play a possible Santa Rally and so far it looks likely to follow the usual pattern. On this Trade I will manually trigger a Stoploss if it drops below 2640 on an End of Day Close basis. See the previous Trade below.
13/12/2017 Bought a Long Spreadbet on the S&P500 (US500 on igindex) at 2669 on the Mar'18 Contract, equivalent to about 10% of my Long Exposure. There is an established 'thing' that Markets tend to Rally at the end of December and Robbie Burns (Naked Trader) recently wrote about this on ADVFN.com - he says the usual pattern is to go Long on the FTSE100 around 14th December and it often gives 400 points of upside. However, I dislike the FTSE100 of late because it behaves more like a Forex trade so I prefer to use the S&P500 which usually follows a similar pattern but tends to deliver less points than the FTSE100. The technical set-up is not ideal but on low volumes an Xmas 'melt-up' is quite possible - so I have kept the Position quite small and I might add to it in coming days - we have a full week next week which could bring gains (and we could see gains into early January). I have gone for a Stoploss at 2620 and I will trigger this on a manual End of Day basis - i.e. I have not set a hard Stop with my broker. I played this Trade last year and it worked well so fingers crossed it will boost my Xmas Beer Fund !!
8/11/2017 Bought more Fevertree Drinks FEVR at 2182p via a Spreadbet on the Mar'18 Contract, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value, so now got 2% in them. FEVR put out a very strong Trading Update yesterday where they said they will "beat expectations" which is of course exactly what I have been saying with regard to the Forecasts numbers being far too low - this means the true Valuation is far lower than people think. The business clearly is on a roll and I expect to see Brand Extension into new Product Lines in the future which will be the growth driver after the Gin Mixers slow down.
30/10/2017 Bought more Diversified Oil & Gas DGOC Shares at 82p, equivalent to a bit under 1% of Portfolio Value (I actually broke my Minimum Deal Size 1% Rule here - just lacking Cash but used what I had) so now with my Spreadbet I have about 2% in them (I would like more but don't want more Spreadbet Leverage). DGOC Broke-out to a new All Time High on Friday and they did a Trading Update today which says everything on track and Costs have come down again. They go ExDiv on Thursday 16th November for 1.53p per Share and next year the Divvy Yield is forecast at 4.8% then 5.4% in the following year. Expect more acquisitions here and I have a Target of 130p. If you use the Search Box and/or 'Stock Buy Rationale' Category you should find a Blog I did on this.
29/10/2017 Closed S&P500 Shorts after hitting my Stoploss at 2580 - managed to close at 2574 so only took a small Loss at 0.18% of Portfolio Value. Quite happy with how this played out although as I discussed in my Blog of 29th October 'Spooky Charts....' it is frustrating that nice Shorting set-ups are not working.
26/10/2017 Shorted S&P500 at 2561 a bit more via Spreadbet on the Dec'17 Contract - equivalent to another 10% so now about 35% Short. This is 'US500' on igIndex. Keeping Stoploss at 2580 on EOD Close basis with manual trigger as on my other Short. US Indexes fell back by end of day today and continue to look like dropping back from very elevated levels.
23/10/2017 Shorted S&P500 at 2562 via a Spreadbet on the Dec'17 Contract. On igIndex this is 'US500'. Stoploss at 2580 on EOD Close manual trigger basis. Equivalent to about 25% of my total Long Exposure. Bearish Engulfing Candle, RSI falling and still high at 69, on verge of Bearish MACD cross, DOW and Nasdaq look to be turning down also. DOW especially overbought.
17/10/2017 Bought Fevertree Drinks FEVR Shares at 2195p with a position that is about 1% of Portfolio. The Risk here is around the Valuation as FEVR is on an extremely high Forward P/E of 70 or something but I take the view that the Forecasts this is based on are crazy low in light of the Growth that FEVR has shown in its recent Trading Updates. If you look at the Blog I did on 1/10/2017 'A Sigh of Relief....' I cover this in some depth. I am keeping my Position quite small for now but will be looking to buy more if opportunity knocks. The thing that really stands out is how FEVR only has 12 Product Lines and I reckon if it can truly establish itself as a Quality Brand then the opportunity for Brand Extension into other related Products is huge. I see this as very much a Long Term Hold.
16/10/2017 Closed (bought back) S&P500 Short spreadbet at 2558 taking a Loss of about 0.1% of Portfolio Value following Trigger of Stoploss and I don't want to fight the market. I am surprised because US Indexes so stretched but I will bide my time and look for other Opportunities to short.
10/10/2017 Closed (Sold) AZN AstraZeneca Spreadbet at 5160p banking a Profit of about 12% on the Exposure (as if normal shares) but it was Leveraged with only 5% Margin Requirement so Return on Capital around 250%. Nothing wrong with AZN and I will continue to hold the Normal Shares in my Income Portfolio but this was just a tactical short term Trade to take advantage of the big fall after the Mystic Trial failure. It wasn't a big position so the Profit was only equivalent to about 0.25% of my Portfolio Value - but it all helps !! The Shares have run up in recent weeks and look a bit Toppy now after closing the 'Gap' and there is a lot of Resistance just up above.
9/10/2017 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igIndex) via Spreadbet at 2545 with Stoploss at 2555 on a Manual End of Day Close basis. US Indexes had strong run up and look very toppy - see my Charts Blog from Sunday 8th October. '3 Inside Down' candlestick pattern, falling from Trendline, falling from Upper Bollinger Band, RSI turned down from elevated RSI 73 level. Kept Position small, around 20% of Long Portfolio Value. Just a bit of Hedging with October often being an iffy month.
4/10/2017 Bought Long Spreadbet on Sainsburys SBRY at 247p on the Mar18 Contract. I am not overly happy with this Stock but I hold it in my Income Portfolio and the Chart looks to be turning up off the bottom of a well defined 3 year Sideways Range so I see a potential short term gain here. I have gone for about 2% of my Overall Portfolio Value so I have kept it sensible. SBRY is on a Forward P/E of 11.5 and Forward Divvy of 4.6% so the numbers are reasonable. I have been sceptical of the Argos deal but recent Trading Updates have shown this bit is doing quite well. As per my realisation of the higher Finance Charges in DFB Bets, I have gone for the Longest Quarterly which is probably the cheapest way if you end up running a Position for a while.
28/09/2017 Closed (bought back) S&P500 Spreadbet at 2508 taking a tiny loss of less than 0.1% of Portfolio Value. Got almost to my Stoploss but my Shorting Thesis was not playing out after an initial drop and it looks likely to rise further. Despite the small monetary loss (relatively speaking !!!) I am quite happy with how I have played this trade and shows I am learning the painful lessons from my huge mistake last year.
27/09/2017 Bought more St Ives SIV at 73p on the Jun18 Quarterly Spreadbet Contract, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value so now got 3% in them. Had to battle my conscience here because I am supposed to be lowering leverage but this is so silly cheap and such a great Chart setup that I couldn't not buy - Results Tuesday as well. I wrote about these on an Entry below from 19/09 but it is on a Forward P/E of 6 with 3% Divvy Yield and I think EPS forecasts are too low. Lovely Uptrend Channel and on verge of Bullish 50/200 Day MA Golden Cross. My Target is at least 150p in time.
21/09/2017 Shorted (Sold) S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via the Dec Contract at 2499.8 equivalent to about 20% of Long Portfolio value. I have a Stoploss at 2515 on a manual, End of Day Close basis. We are in a difficult period of the year so some Hedging seems wise and the S&P500 is turning down off a Hanging Man Candle yesterday, the RSI is turning down, MACD is rolling over, the Heiken Ashi Candles are narrowing after a run up of white candles. DOW and Nasdaq also are showing signs of turning down.
20/09/2017 Sold (Closed) about half of my Supergroup SGP Spreadbets at 1560p for the same reasons as ESUR below but I still hold loads also as normal Shares. Made about 14% on the Exposure and about 70% on the Capital tied up due to the leverage. One of my favourite Stocks and if I start buying again in general, I might buy more of these.
20/09/2017 Sold (Closed) part of Esure ESUR Spreadbets at 271p - nothing wrong with the Stock or anything and I still hold plenty as Shares also - in line with my Strategy to lower Exposure and Spreadbet Leverage for Autumn I am just TopChopping a bit. On this Position I was up about 50% which was 300% on the Capital Employed due to leverage - although it was a pretty small Position.
19/09/2017 Bought more St Ives SIV Shares at 73p. I am Averaging Down so now got about 2.5% of Portfolio Exposure in them. They went through a bad patch but are now back in Recovery mode and the Share Price is moving up - in fact they are on the verge of a 50/200 Day MA 'Golden Cross'. SIV has been in the process of a Strategic Move from old fashioned Printing to Online Marketing which is clearly the place to be with TV ads etc. in decline. SIV has a lot of debt but cashflow is strong and on a forward p/e under 6 it is daft cheap and I think there is at least 100% upside here. However, note that the EPS forecasts for next 2 years around 12p look way too light and I think there could be Analyst Upgrades. There is also 2.5% Divvy. I did a Blog on SIV a while back which you can find under the Category 'Stock Buy Rationale' on the Blog page.
15/09/2017 Sold (Closed) one of my Glencore GLEN Spreadbet Positions at 346p equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Exposure but I probably still have about 3% in them. As with HSBA I am very happy to hold this Stock but I just want to lower Exposure to Leverage in my Spreadbets and lower Risk. This is a bit of Spreadsheet trickery but on this particular Position I lost about 35% on the Exposure which was leveraged to about a loss of 346% on the Capital Employed but this is a very false picture because I have held for years and Averaged Down a lot and I couldn't be bothered to mess about and calculate a more accurate Return. All it means in practice is that when I close my other Positions they will show a hugely inflated Profit - c'est la vie !!
15/09/2017 Sold (Closed) one of my HSBC HSBA Spreadbet Positions at 709p equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Value so I still hold about 3% or so in them. I still am happy with this Share but as I have mentioned in my Blogs etc. I am very cautious with it being Autumn and I am looking to lower my Long Spreadbet Exposure and also to build Cash in case we have a substantial drop. On this particular Position I was up about 7% on the Exposure and 140% on the Capital Employed because it was leveraged - but I probably made a little bit more as I have held for a few years and the Divvy payments outweigh the Financing Costs - we are talking peanuts though. I have held HSBA for years and at one time I was down a lot on it so it has recovered quite nicely and my other Positions and Shares are nicely in profit.
11/09/2017 Sold all Paysafe PAYS Shares (was Optimal Payments OPAY) at 583p and all Spreadbet Positions at 582p. Takeover looks settled to me and no signs of any other Bidders so I am banking Cash and moving on. I am in no rush to deploy Cash and a bit wary with it being Autumn. I made about 90% on the Shares after about 3 years and against the Buy Prices on igindex I made about 40% on the Spreadbet exposure but in reality I think the Gains are higher as igindex reset the Buy Prices on many Long Term DFB positions some time ago and I think PAYS was one of these. I will look at SpreadSheets later and try and figure out true Return - of course the Spreadbets were leveraged so Return on Capital used was huge.
25/08/2017 I have been mentioning my concerns about Autumn, and September in particular, for a while and with us nearly there I have decided to lower my Total Spreadbet Exposure a lot and I might Short the S&P500 at some point. Lowering Exposure helps in 2 ways because it means if we do see some proper falls, then the impact is less and also I have more Cash resources to 'buffer' any drops. Therefore I sold all my ESP Empiric Student Property spreadbets at 110p which is a tiny Profit - I find ESP doesn't move much so it is not good material for a spreadbet as it ties up Cash. I TopChopped part of my BOO Boohoo.com spreadbets at 233p giving a lovely Profit on my buy and I TopChopped ETO Entertainment One spreadbets at 238p; I TopChopped IOM Iomart spreadbets at 312p and I TopChopped TSTL Tristel spreadbets at 296p for a nice Profit. All of these Stocks I still like and apart from ESP I still have spreadbets but I will be keeping my Normal Shares. This is just prudent Risk Management with September often causing a lot of trouble as Leverage can really do some damage fast. I may be buying some more Spreadbets once we are back in nicer Markets. I have now run the numbers and on ESP I made a tiny profit (although the big Divvy would have outweighed the Yearly Interest Charge on top); on BOO I bought at 29p so made about 700% Profit on Exposure - on the Capital Used it was bonkers - like 3000%; on ETO I was up 26% which was ok, nothing special; on IOM I was up 32% on Exposure - again just ok; On TSTL I was up 305% on the Exposure and 1226% on the Capital due to Leverage - very nice !!
23/08/2017 Bought Water Intelligence WATR Shares at 130p (I actually bought on 22nd Aug but was mulling overnight whether or not to buy more - it is extremely illiquid and very hard to buy the Shares - I had to use a Limit Order with iDealing) which is a very small Company with a Market Cap around £15m. Due to poor liquidity and wide spread it is not really suitable for a Spreadbet and I doubt many Spreadbet Companies enable it anyway. WATR does leak repairs and maintenance and is surprisingly international with a particular focus on the US doing swimming pools etc. Recent Trading Update was a belter with them saying growth is "accelerating" which is the sort of bullish wording I really like to see. On a forward P/E of 14.4 and strong growth and a bit of Cash this looks very good value and a rare way to play the Big Theme of Water Scarcity. Not one to go crazy on and I have bought around 1% of my Portfolio Value. I expect to hold it for several years and I may buy more if things develop in a favourable way. They combine a Franchise Model with own operations and have recently been buying back some Franchises and improving their performance. Interim Results are due in "early September" and I wanted to get in before these as they should be good. WATR evolved out of Quonnectis which many may remember for the LeakFrog product - they still have this.
22/08/2017 Sold Cape CIU Shares and Spreadbet at 257p. CIU is subject to a Takeover at 265p and I rarely wait for the Cash to come through as often it gets very drawn out and of course the Deal could collapse. Over all my Positions I just about broke-even as CIU been through some troubled times with the Oil Price meaning customers are not spending on maintenance etc. as much. CIU put out a decent Trading Update today but say they think 2018 will be "challenging" so I am quite happy to have this taken off me and I can move on and use the Cash elsewhere. With my concerns about September/Autumn I am in no rush to spend all the Cash freed up though.
16/08/2017 Bought Long Spreadbet on GlaxoSmithkline GSK at 1511p on the December Contract equivalent to about 2% of Portfolio Value. I already hold in Income Portfolio and the Shares are down at 1 year low and look to be turning up again after sustained drop. Bit of an opportunistic trade hopefully - if it can move back up in the Wide Range then I will be looking to Sell and bank a gain. Divvy Yield forecast well over 5% and although there is risk of a cut, I expect Income Buyers will still want this Stock and it has defensive qualities. With Autumn on the way I have not gone crazy on them.
31/07/2017 Closed (sold) all German DAX30 Long Spreadbets at 12100 taking a big loss of just under 2% of Portfolio Value. Really unhappy about this but the DAX seems to have become a proxy for the Euro vs Dollar and weakness in the Dollar is causing Euro to rise and hurt DAX - same thing happening to lesser extent with FTSE100. My error here was a very Bad Entry and my attempts to rescue a duff trade by adding another Long DAX failed although I am much happier about how I managed this second Trade which had a good Entry and I followed my Stoploss Rules. With Autumn coming I am very keen to lower my Long Spreadbet Leverage and closing these DAX Trades helps a lot and frees up the Cash tied up as Deposit. Inability of DAX to 'follow through' on Hammer Candle from Friday 28th July was another bad sign. On the initial Entry here I 'jumped the gun' and the lessons are to wait for a clear Technical Signal and to always obey Stoploss Rules.
31/07/2017 Bought Long Spreadbet on AstraZeneca AZN at 4574 on the December Contract. Selloff from Mystic Trial failure looks overdone and I am hoping for a bit of a recovery here. I went into the reasoning in my Charts Blog from 30th July but the essence is forecast near 5% Divvy and enviable Pipeline of around 100 Drug Trials to come. Bought about 1.5% of Portfolio Value equivalent but already hold a bit in my Income Portfolio.
24/07/2017 Opened another Long Spreadbet on German DAX30 at 12244 equivalent to about another 15% of my Total Long Portfolio so now have DAX Long equivalent to about 35%. I am Averaging Down after screwing up on previous DAX Long Trade (see my Charts Blogs) after a nice Hammer Candle today which could mark a Reversal after long period of falling. I have a tight Stoploss at 12140 on an EOD Close basis operated manually on this new Position.
18/07/2017 Sold 1/3 of my Henderson Global Technology Unit Trust - now it is about 2.5% of my Overall Portfolio Value. There were several reasons - firstly Valuations in US Tech look very stretched (although can go higher), secondly the Pound seems to be rising against the Dollar (this translates into lower Pounds for me as most of this Tech Fund is based in US), and thirdly I wanted to raise Cash in advance of an Autumn period of weakness which often hits us. I made about 40% on this Investment but this is pretty dire when you consider I have held it for probably 17 years !! However, I bought this Fund right at the Peak of the Dotcom Boom (what a muppet LOL) and it dwindled to about 20% of its Initial Value at the low point in 2003 and has just steadily recovered. I am still happy to hold the remainder but it is also worth realising that I have a lot of exposure to Tech Plays in my usual Shares anyway.
17/07/2017 Bought more Molins MLIN at 149p on a Spreadbet on the December Contract equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Value so now got about 3% in them. Since my last buy it has shot up but a lot has happened since then and the Stock is now valued at pretty much its Cash Pile - which is daft and I have a Target here of about 250p. If MLIN can deploy the Cash well on some decent Acquisitions this could really boost the future Earnings.
11/07/2017 Bought Long Spreadbet on BAE Systems BA. at 624p on the September Contract equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Value so with Normal Shares probably got about 4% in them. Had big Pullback lately and looks like it can turn up off the 200 Day Moving Average especially since UK Courts ruled in favour of the Government on Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia which is big customer of BA. Divvy up around 3.7% ish here and that is a decent attraction. In an ideal world the Shares can move up in coming weeks and I will be able to bank a small gain on the Spreadbet but I will be keeping all my Shares. Pound gaining back some strength could be a risk here.
19/06/2017 Opened Long Spreadbet on German DAX30 at 12901 with Stoploss on an End of Day Close basis at 12590 - this is manual and not 'hard coded' with my platform. I am targetting 13500 but if it gets there I will be moving the Stoploss up behind it and letting it run. It is equivalent to about 20% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. DAX did Bullish MACD Cross today and Heiken Ashi Candles gone big and white.
8/06/2017 Bought On the Beach OTB Shares at 398p and Spreadbet at 400p on the next 3 month contract. These look a very good Internet Play to me and on a Forward P/E a shade under 18 it looks good value for high growth. I have about 2% of my Portfolio Exposure in OTB now. I wrote and published a Buy Rationale Blog on these today which explains it hopefully.
8/06/2017 Bought a Long Spreadbet on National Grid NG. at 1022p with the intention of playing the wide Range this tends to trade in. I was hoping for a Tory win but at the time of writing this the Exit Poll looks scary with the threat of a Hung Parliament. NG. has a Divvy near 5% and I think this will bring the Income Buyers in assuming that they don't get re-nationalised by Jezza Corbyn !! I hold Shares in these already as a Long Term thing and my new Buy is about 2% of Portfolio Exposure.
8/06/2017 Bought more Patisserie Holdings CAKE Shares at 336p, so I now have about 3% of Portfolio Exposure in them. My last buy was very near this but since then we have had a great set of Results and Analyst Upgrades mean that it is now on an ex-Cash Forward P/E around 16 rather that 18 - looks pretty decent value to me. There is a Blog on this Stock under 'Stock Buy Rationale' category on the Blog page.
7/06/2017 Closed FTSE100 Spreadbet Short at 7520, banking a measly Profit equivalent to 0.1% of Portfolio Value. As always, FTSE100 is proving to be a useless and frustrating way to Hedge my Long Portfolio and I didn't want to hold it on Wednesday Night when it goes ExDiv and I would take the cost of the Dividend. I expect Stocks in general to rally on a Theresa May Win on Friday and it is unclear what FTSE100 will do if Pound rises on the result.
5/06/2017 Shorted FTSE100 via Spreadbet at 7538 equivalent to about 30% of Long Portfolio Value with a Manual Stoploss at 7615 on an EOD Close basis and target of 7350 but I will see how it goes. On verge of MACD Cross and seems to be turning down from Inverted Hammer Candle on Friday 2nd June. Heiken Ashi Candles gone Red and of course we have the Election on Friday. Commodities look weak and Pound looks likely to rise if anything.
5/06/2017 Closed DAX30 Long Spreadbet at 12822 banking a Profit equivalent to 0.3% of Portfolio Value. I wanted to run this more if I could but all Major Indexes look weak and it seems prudent to Bank a quick gain and move on.
4/06/2017 Closed S&P500 (US500) Spreadbet Short at 2437 as my Manual EOD Stoploss at 2425 was triggered. I screwed up here because I missed the Trigger on Thursday Night and I should have closed it that night - by failing to do this it cost me 0.2% of Portfolio Value more than it needed to be. As it was I took a hit of 0.5% of Portfolio Value. I am annoyed about my stupidity but not about the Stoploss being triggered - it is doing its job and after my major Balls Up last year with FTSE100 Shorts I have learnt my lesson !! See my Charts Blog from 4th June 2017 for more details.
1/06/2017 Gone Long on DAX30 (Germany 30 on igindex) via a Spreadbet at 12695 equivalent to about 10% of Portfolio Value - I wanted a bigger Position but the Margin Requirement is chunky so I have kept it small. I have a Stoploss on a Manual End of Day Close basis at 12375 which is just below the Long Term Previous All Time High breakout level as per my blogs. I am expecting the DAX to make strong gains following the Breakout and my Target is 13500 so I will let it run.
31/05/2017 Shorted S&P500 (US500 on igindex) via a Spreadbet at 2413 equivalent to about 30% of my Long Portfolio as an Insurance/Hedge with Markets looking toppy and June historically a poor month (see my Blog from 29th May 2017). I have a Manual Stoploss (I have not placed a fixed one with my spreadbet broker) which will be triggered by me if the S&P500 Closes over 2425 on an End of Day (EOD) basis. My Target is 2370 but if things get a bit exciting then this could go lower.
18/05/2017 Sold remaining Shares at 297p and Spreadbet at 291p in Safestyle SFE. Big disappointment because the Shares recently broke-out to New All Time High and usually that predicts that things are going well but in this case SFE put out a Profit Warning today saying that trading has got tough. It is hard to know what to do on such Warnings but I made quick Decision to dump my Position as SFE in a very cyclical Double Glazing business and I expect it could have more problems - Profit Warnings often come in threes and rarely stand on their own - so I expect SFE price will just drift lower. Of course making a decision to dump is a lot easier when you have a nice Profit Cushion and I banked a Return of 93% on the Shares and 76% on the Spreadbet Exposure (just over 300% on the Capital Employed due to leverage) in about 3 years but there were also big divvys on top and I have already TopChopped and banked a good Profit about a year ago. The Profit realised today was worth about 1% of Current Portfolio Value - all in all a decent investment.
10/05/2017 Bought more Paysafe PAYS via a Spreadbet at 475p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value - so now got about 3.5% of Portfolio in them. I have been waiting for a Breakout of the Previous All Time High as this tends to lead to more gains and we got that yesterday although it was not particularly 'clean' as the Shares dropped back a bit during the day. PAYS did a Trading Update and said things were "in line" but the standout thing from this Update and the previous one is how Debt has been coming down. On a forward P/E of 11.4 it looks very attractive for a stock in the hot ePayments space - I think I will see 700p here and maybe more. Note Mark Slater is a big holder of PAYS.
9/05/2017 Bought more Molins MLIN Shares at 83p so now got around 1.5% of Portfolio Value in them. This looks like a Turnaround Play that the Market has not really picked up on yet and on a Forward P/E of 4.4 it has to be one of the Cheapest Stocks around - this could double and still only be on a Forward P/E under 9 !! I have held MLIN for a few years and it has been a total duffer up until now - the problems started with an Acquisition of a Smoking Laboratory in the US which was expected to time with new FDA Regulations that never appeared - so things got really quite bad. MLIN specialise in Machines that do packaging with most in Tobacco but also in Pharma and Food - and I expect the company to move away from Fag stuff in future. The Turnaround started probably about a year ago when a new CEO was brought in (I think the last CEO was called Dick Hunter by the way - I thought you would like to know that) and he has been doing a 'Strategic Review' that mainly means chopping Costs and focusing more on Servicing Packaging Machines. With stacks of Revenue up around £90m, it won't take much Cost Chopping to make this every profitable. To give an indication of progress, the Cash generation has enabled MLIN to move from a Debt position to Net Cash now. As another measure of 'Value' in the old fashioned Benjamin Graham sense, SharePad has Net Asset Value at £35m against Market Cap of £16.4m (at end of 2016) and it says NAV Per Share is 175.5p or Net Tangible Assets Per Share is 100p - so 83p is a nice Price on that basis also. MLIN will not pay a Divvy this year to conserve Cash but is forecast to pay 2.4% Yield on my 83p Buy Price next year. MLIN has a bit of Pension Deficit but it looks quite small and manageable. Obviously there are risks with any Recovery Story but it's not like I have had to pay a high price for it !! I am Targeting a minimum of 200p here with a bit of WheeliePatience. On the Charting side MLIN broke-out of a Downtrend a few Months back and has established a nice clean Uptrend Channel since that. It recently did a 50/200 Day Moving Average Golden Cross and that is always a good sign. This is the Stock I mentioned in recent Blog on Global Ports Holdings and as soon as I have more firepower I will probably be buying more.
25/04/2017 Bought more Devro DVO via a Spreadbet at 186p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value so now got about 3% or so in them. This is one I bought a Starter Position in and it went badly wrong with a Profit Warning almost straightaway but since that they have hinted things are improving and I bought a load more Shares and the Chart was looking good so I topped up with this Spreadbet as well because the AGM is on the 26th April and I thought there was a good chance of a positive Trading Statement (and as it happened I was right because I am typing this on Weds 26th April). At my Buy Price of 186p, DVO is on a Forward P/E of 10.5 which looks really cheap for bottom of the cycle earnings and I think this is easily worth 300p with a bit of patience and a Re-rating - and while I wait I will pick up 4.8% Dividend Yield. If you use the Search Box on the Homepage you should be able to find some Blogs I wrote on DVO.
13/04/2017 Bought Patisserie Holdings CAKE Shares at 334p around 1% of Portfolio Value and also did a Long Spreadbet on CAKE equivalent to about the same Exposure at 335p. Regular Readers will probably have seen the Blog I did on CAKE back on 24/02/2017 and I have been waiting ever since for the Chart to perk up and show that the Shares are clearly in an Uptrend again. CAKE announced they will put out Results on Weds 17th March and I think they could rise before these. If you strip out the Cash, CAKE is on a Forward P/E of 17.4 and comes with just over 1% Divvy - this is not particularly cheap but for a Quality Rollout Growth story I think this is worth paying and I see this as a 'Hold forever' Stock which has the potential to be worth considerably more in a few years.
4/04/2017 Sold about a third of Tristel TSTL Shares at 194p and half my Spreadbets at 194p - banking lovely gains of about 75% (plus Divvys) on the exposure. I am still keen on TSTL and particularly excited about the move into the US but the reality is that this is a pretty small company and therefore very susceptible to sudden challenges that can spank the Share Price so it seems prudent to lower my Risk here. As with BOO, it has had a superb run and now carries a lot of Valuation Risk on a Forward P/E up in the high 20s - probably still have around 3% of my Portfolio in them. My efforts to sell the Shares this morning were a bit painful - I don't feel like I was trying to sell a huge amount but I couldn't even get a quote for this small chunk. In the event I had to do a Limit Order which was a bit lower than was ideal but it luckily got filled later in the day when the Price recovered a bit. It is clear that Small Stocks have big volatility problems due to a lack of liquidity and it is easy to forget how these problems can arise in particular when we have major Market Panic Selloffs - I dread to imagine what kind of Price I would have got on a day like the Brexit Vote result. It sort of highlights why TopChopping in the more placcid times is a good idea and it helps to sell into strength - as it says in the book 'Free Capital', "Feed the ducks when they are quacking".
4/04/2017 Bought more Glencore GLEN Shares at 322p about 1.25% of Portfolio Value. I felt I was underweight to Mining stuff and I am very happy to buy GLEN as it is almost like a Fund in many ways with loads of intrinsic diversity across Geographies, Commodities, Mines etc. and I particularly like the Trading Arm as well. With a Divvy around 4.4% expected it looks reasonable value and the Chart has a nice Uptrend. I probably now have about 4% of my Portfolio exposure in them.
4/04/2017 Closed (bought back) Tesla TSLA Short at $295 taking a loss of around 35% on my Sell Price which is very poor trading although thankfully it was only a small position so the damage to my Portfolio Value was only 0.3%. I was lucky because I tried to add to the Short several times but igIndex were unable to borrow Stock so I could not do the trade. My huge stupid error here was to do a Trade without a clear Plan with a Target and Stoploss etc. - although I did always have the rule that if it broke-out to a New All Time High then I would Close the trade. Part of my problem here was that mentally I was wedded (and still am) to the idea that TSLA is a ridiculous Loss making, Cash burning farce and I suspect that I will be proved right on this at some point in the future but in the Short Term the Market can be very irrational especially when Bulls are so rampant in general. I was very reluctant to Close the Short for the simple reason that I know it will be hard to open another one - but after the News of Tencent taking a 10% Stake and the ATH Breakout it was clearly time to take the hit and move on. Sadly I also succumbed to Greed because I was up about 20% on the Trade a few months back but I let that sift through my fingers - a Trailing Stoploss might have helped but I was driven by the conviction that TSLA is really worth a fraction of its market cap.
4/04/2017 Sold about a third of Boohoo BOO Shares at 171p banking roughly 270% Profit which is rather nice. Also Sold (Closed) about a quarter of BOO Spreadbets at 171p banking similar gains (this was leveraged so return on my Stake is nuts). Still a huge fan of BOO and I expect to keep holding a Position in them but my Exposure had grown hugely and I don't like any Positions to get really over-sized - it increases Risk and 'Black Swans' can come flying in from anywhere. Lovely uptrend on BOO but the Valuation Risk is well high on a forward p/e around 70 or something which is extreme. Still got around 4% of Portfolio in BOO.
31/03/2017 Sold National Grid NG. Spreadbet at 1010p banking about 7% Profit on the Exposure which is equivalent to about 140% return on the Margin/Deposit required due to Leverage - not bad in 3 months. I am keeping the Normal Shares in my Income Portfolio and I will be looking for an opportunity to trade these via a Spreadbet again - it makes sense because I am watching the Charts every night anyway.
31/03/2017 Sold about 2/3 Golden Prospect GPM Spreadbets at 38p banking a silly little profit. Still keeping Shares for now but getting nervous about Gold Price which has a Long Term Downtrend Line. I am having a crisis about the suitability of Gold for my Portfolio - with my active Hedging via Index Shorts, I am not sure if Gold helps me at all. I have lowered Risk by chopping my Position back.
28/03/2017 Closed (bought back) FTSE100 Short Spreadbet at 7363 taking a small loss of 22 Points - equivalent to less than 0.1% of Portfolio Value in £ note terms. Markets look to be turning up again and I don't see a need for Insurance now. The loss was the Premium I had to pay for protection.
24/03/2017 Bought more BAE Systems BA. Shares at 655p - chart looks poised to breakout to new Highs and on a Forward P/E of 15 and 3.4% Divvy this looks reasonable value considering Trump is rattling his sword and NATO is likely to up its spending on Defence. I already held these in my Income Portfolio and was clearly underweight so now got about 1.5% of my normal Portfolio Value in them. There are concerns around the Pension Deficit but I see this as a bit of a red herring and it is highly likely that Interest Rates will start to slowly rise and this will dramatically alter the assumptions in the Pension models.
23/03/2017 Bought more Air Partner AIR Shares at 113p equivalent to around 1% of Portfolio so probably now have about 3% in them. These are very illiquid Shares and the chart can be a pig to 'read' but a few weeks ago they did a 'Share Split' (something like 5 Shares for every 1 I held) and I expect this to improve liquidity which means the chart should become more sensible and the Buy/Sell (Bid/Offer) Spread should hopefully improve - it looks like it has. These look great value still - on a raw Forward P/E of about 10 and if you strip out the Cash Pile then it is maybe around 8 and they should pay a 6% Dividend. I think these could easily see 50% upside from here. They do Aviation Services with a Jet Broking arm and Health & Safety Consultancy as well as a Plane Registration business.
23/03/2017 Sold all Netplay NPT Shares at 8.8p and Spreadbets at 8.7p, but overall on this one I made a loss although with big Divvys it is probably just about Breakeven. This is really disappointing as NPT got a Takeover Bid but it is way too low - and much of my position was bought far higher up. It is frustrating when this kind of thing happens but sometimes that is how it plays out - no point crying about it too much, I now have a pile of Cash and I will be looking to TopUp other Stocks I already hold.
23/03/2017 Sold remaining 32Red TTR Shares at 194p and Spreadbets at 193p, banking about 125% profit on these Trades but I have already sold loads of these and all together it has been a beauty. I also had Dividends on top after holding some for probably about 3 years. They got a recent Takeover Offer and I have given it some time to see if any other Bids emerge (because they are getting it a bit cheap I think) but it looks like a 'Done Deal' now so I am moving on. I also received a huge Dividend from them today.
21/03/2017 Shorted (Sold) FTSE100 at 7341 via a Spreadbet so I am hedging about 30% of my Long Portfolio. As per the 'Technical View' update tonight on the 'M3 Manifesto' page, it looks like Markets are selling off and I wanted some protection. I have set a Manual Stoploss to trigger at 7450 on an 'End of Day' Close basis.
16/03/2017 Bought Somero Enterprises SOM Shares at 282p and a Spreadbet at 284p - across the 2 instruments I put about 2.5% of Portfolio Value in them. I have gone large here straightaway as I like SOM a lot and it is decent Value on an ex-cash Forward P/E of just 11 and a Forward divvy of 3.3% - and it looks like a Special Divvy is on the cards as well. SOM is unusual because it is Listed on AIM but incorporated in the US (some Twitter mates have had to fill out special forms with their brokers) but being a maker of Concrete Levelling Machines they are well placed to benefit from the Trump spending splurge on Infrastructure and of course the infamous Wall. SOM has something like 90% of the Market for these machines and clearly such a virtual monopoly in a specialist niche gives them a nice Economic Moat. Technically there is a really powerful Uptrend and after a superb set of Results this week, I expect to see more rises and there could be about 50% upside here I think with patience. I actually put SOM on my 'Little Black Book' page ages ago when the Shares were much cheaper but sadly I didn't have any spare slots - finally I have pounced on the little devils.
15/03/2017 Sold (Closed) AstraZeneca AZN Spreadbet at 4852 banking a Profit of about 20% on my Original Buy exposure - because this was a leveraged Position, the Return on Capital is huge - maybe 350% or so. I have held this for about 1.5 years and I missed an opportunity to sell it before but this time I took action. Great Company and I expect really good newsflow here as the Oncology Pipeline gets through various Trials and there is a nice Divvy. However, I am keeping my Shares and my strategy with all the Stocks in my Income Portfolio is to 'play' them as Spreadbets whenever I get the chance but I will be keeping the Underlying Shares. I banked Profit worth about 0.4% of my Portfolio Value which is nothing amazing but it all helps. I hope now the Shares drop back again and I get the chance for another buy.
15/03/2017 Sold all Brady BRY Shares and Spreadbet at 77p. I have held my first position in these for about 3 years and it has been nothing but a pain. I got out at break-even but in the time I have held these they have had at least 2 Profit Warnings and have finally recovered to a situation where I am happy to get shot of them. I was hoping for better here and a chance to Average Down but the Results yesterday were very unimpressive and I felt it very fortunate that they did not drop afterwards. The biggest problem here is that on a Forward P/E up around 22 I just cannot see any upside and there is no way I can buy more at such a high valuation. Dumping BRY frees up a Slot even if it has been a poor investment.
7/03/2017 Bought more Devro DVO Shares at 188p equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Value so now have perhaps just under 2.5% in them. Unlike AGK which has really peed me off, DVO was one where I had bought a 'Starter Position' a few months back and then it did a Profit Warning and things looked really quite scary - DVO has a lot of Debt and it looked to me like they would need to cut the Dividend and even do a Rights Issue. If you look on my Blog page you will find an initial Blog I did about DVO (the numbers will be invalid now but the 'story' is the same) and a further one I wrote after the Warning (use the Search Box at top of homepage to track it down). When I have a Stock that has gone wrong after an Initial Buy, I like to bide my time and ride out the storm (assuming the Company is fundamentally sound and the problems look to be of a temporary and definable nature) and once it starts to show signs of life, I then buy heavily so I am Averaging Down but taking advantage of really cheap Stock. Several of my best Winners ever have been done this way - BOO, TTR, EMR, FWEB, CLL, etc. have all been played like this - "never average down" is valid for Short Term Traders but for Long Term Investing I think that averaging down is essential. There is nothing worse than a Position that I can do nothing with - this is why I am irked by AGK - I wanted to buy more but after yesterday's Update there is no way I can buy more as it is a bit of a mess (it is possible that I will dump it soon but I have not decided). However, AGK has a lot of attractions and I suspect I will need more patience here. Back on DVO - many people have read yesterday's Results and dismissed DVO out of hand as a "piece of junk" - I think they are totally missing what is happening here and that is something I really like because it means the Stock is very beat up and I will get a chance to buy more very cheap (it also cuts to a psychology thing that I notice a lot where people focus on the Historic Information when what matters is the change that is going on as the Company moves to the Future - Stockmarkets are forward looking and we need to think this way). The big surprise for me yesterday was how DVO are maintaining the Dividend and it looks highly probable that they will increase the Divvy Payment next year - so this year I pick up about 4.6% Divvy and it should rise. The key here is all about Cashflow - DVO is massively Cash Generative and this is why it can support such a huge Debt Pile (Interest is covered 7 times !!) and keep paying a sweet Divvy. What people are totally missing here is that over the last few Years DVO has been totally distracted by building the new Factories in the US and in China - and because these went wrong, there have been a lot more Costs than originally planned. However, for the next couple of years DVO will have Exceptional Charges for the new Devro100 Initiative but these Charges are piddly compared to the charges of the last few years - this means that the Debt will get paid down quickly and the Divvy has room to rise. In fact, even if Revenue stays flat (unlikely because DVO grew Divvy last year even with the problems and volumes falling and now part of the Devro100 plan is to focus on Sales and New Products) then DVO will still generate plenty of Cash to get the Debt down. Add to this a backdrop of a growing market (grew 4% last year) and the fact DVO now has 'State of the Art' efficient Factories which mean it can be Price competitive, then it is highly likely that meeting Forecasts (which are probably artificially low after all these issues) will be no big challenge. On a P/E of 13.4 this year and a Forward P/E of 11 this does not look expensive at all - and of course the Weak £ has helped them as well. South America is clearly a problem and will be for another year or so but note in the Update they said that China is already picking up - it is worth nothing also that DVO is now a truly global player and has a lot of Capacity to enable future growth. I expect to be buying more of these soon and will be doing a Spreadbet on them most likely. Oh, the Pension is huge here but as Readers know, I don't get over stressed by this as the way these Deficits is calculated is extremely sensitive and it just takes minor changes to assumptions and miraculously a Deficit becomes a Surplus - it is daft really. With Interest Rates likely to slowly rise, the Pension Deficit could soon evaporate.
7/03/2017 Sold around a third of my Holding in TTR 32Red at 194p - main reason being to free up Cash to buy more DVO. TTR got a Takeover Bid recently and it looks very much like a 'Done Deal' but I will probably hold the remainder (including Spreadbets) for another couple of weeks because I still feel the Bid is too low and there is an outside chance another Bid could appear - although there is no sign of it. My general approach to Takeovers is to sell in the market as soon as I get the sense the Deal is complete and then I can take the Cash and reinvest it to have my money working hard for me. If you wait for the Cash to come through via the normal Takeover admin then it can be very frustrating and take often 6 months or more and of course there is always the possibility that any Deal can fall through - how grating would that be if you had waited months and months !! This has been a cracker - I bought my first lot at around 70p and have held for a few years but I topped up a lot and my last Buy was at 130p ish not very long ago. I made an average of 130% on this chunk and have had lots of Dividends on top - even a Special Divvy at some point I think. This one is a great example of how you can make money by understanding what you own and its value, being patient, and adding as it moves up and gives Buy Signals.
2/03/2017 Bought more SPRP Sprue Aegis at 195p via a Spreadbet, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value so I now have around 4% in them and this is a big position for me. SPRP has had a string of 'issues' recently but it looks like they are now getting things back on track and if you look through the problems that have beset them then there is a Quality Business underneath here. SPRP has a bit Cash Pile and this is supportive of a Forward Divvy Yield well over 4% and an Ex-Cash Forward P/E of about 16. The Risks obviously centre around resolution of the problems but they are clearly heading in the right direction. Forex is a drag due to sourcing in US Dollars but this is partly mitigated by some Sales abroad and I expect some Pricing Power as their Brands are a bit of a monopoly in many markets. Their last Trading Update said things were on track for the Full Year and the Chart looks good with steady rises and a recent 50/200 Day Moving Average 'Golden Cross' which tends to be a very good sign of more gains to come in the months ahead. If you use the Search Box on the top of the Homepage, you should be able to find a Blog I wrote about SPRP a while back - the numbers are Out of Date but the background and risks and stuff will mostly be still very valid.
2/03/2017 Bought more STAN Standard Chartered Bank at 740p via a Spreadbet, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value - giving me around 3% in them now. I have felt underweight here for a while and I have been seduced by a gorgeous and clearly defined 1 year Uptrend Channel and the Price is moving up off the bottom line. An environment of improving Global Growth and steady Interest Rate Rises should be very supportive of Banks in general and STAN seems to very much mirror the recovery in Commodities Stocks and Emerging Markets - it has big exposure to Asia and Africa so that sort of adds up. In terms of numbers it is on a Forward P/E of 9 which strikes me as very fair and I get 3.8% Divvy next year if all goes to plan. One potential Risk is around the future of Bank Technology (FinTech) and how this changes the Banking Landscape and creates new innovative Banking Business Models - however, I suspect we are a few years away from this and the Big Banks are not totally daft and will be looking at how they can exploit FinTech themselves. In addition, this is very much where the Bilderberg/Davos bunch hang out so they will ensure that Regulation keeps their privileged Elite status in place !!
1/03/2017 Stopped Out on Nasdaq 100 Spreadbet Short at 5385 taking a Loss equal to 0.5% of Portfolio Value. After my fiasco last year with Hedges I am relaxed about this and pleased with myself for having a Rule and sticking to it. My Stop was at 5370 on an End Of Day Close basis and I manually activated it at 5385 taking some 'Slippage' but nothing too concerning. I realise Slippage is a danger but I will monitor this in future trades and perhaps tweak system to try to avoid this. In effect the 0.5% Loss is an Insurance Premium I have had to pay in order to protect my Portfolio when it looked like Indexes might drop.
1/03/2017 Bought Long Spreadbet on DGOC Diversified Gas & Oil Co. at 64p equivalent to about just under 2% of my Portfolio. This is perhaps higher Risk than most of the stuff I buy so I won't get an enormous Position but once I have some free cash I might be tempted to buy more in my ISA if it is still low enough. Regular sufferers of my spiel will know I can't really be doing with all these High Risk volatile tiny Resources Stocks (partly because I like to 'mirror' my normal Share positions as Spreadbets) but I am always open to something that is a bit larger and clear to value like DGOC which is an actual Oil and Gas Producer and is due to pay a 6% Divvy at the IPO Price of 65p. This floated a few weeks back and hasn't done much yet but I find with nearly all IPOs they sneak in under the gaze of most Punters and as they become aware of the new Stock, they can rise very nicely especially when the upside is as visible as on DGOC. The company operates about 4500 Wells in the Appalachian bit of US and these are very low Production 'Nodding Donkey' sort of things. They buy them off Large Shale Oil/Gas Players who are forced to pump from the Old Conventional Wells but they can't be bothered with it - so they sell them to DGOC. The growth can come from DGOC acquiring more Wells (they have targets lined up and a strong Balance Sheet after the IPO) and also from 'Infill Drilling' on the Acreage between existing Wells. In fact, since 2002 they have drilled 150 Wells and never had a Dry one !! (A duster). As ever I will be patient, but I won't be surprised if I see 100p here perhaps even later in 2017. The main Risk here is around the Gas and Oil Price.
1/03/2017 Sold (Closed) Long Spreadbet on RCDO at 902p banking a Profit of about 38% on the Exposure and 95% on the Capital Employed (this was leveraged remember), over exactly 3 years. I sold another Chunk of RCDO a while back and I had hoped it would fall back a lot so I could buy in again, but it never really got cheap enough. On a forward P/E of about 18 or so RCDO is no bargain now and the Trading Update yesterday was not really all that amazing so I decided to dump my silly little rump holding and free up a Slot for DGOC. RCDO I like as a Long Term Business but I just don't feel I can do much with it at the moment and DGOC has potential for a lot of upside.
23/02/2017 Shorted the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 in igindex) at 5329 with a Stoploss at 5370 on an End of Day Close basis to be manually triggered (i.e. not an Automatic Order placed with igindex). Markets generally look toppy and turning down and Gold rising suggests a Pullback on Major Indexes is due. Nasdaq Composite Index did a '3 Inside Down' Candle pattern with RSI 72 and falling and come away from top Bollinger Band. Short equivalent to about 45% of my Long Portfolio Exposure. Bollinger Bands suggest a target in the short term of 5100.
22/02/2017 Sold (Closed) Long Spreadbet on GSK at 1640p banking a Small Profit worth about 0.2% of my Total Portfolio Value - I have had the Position for about 2 months so quite happy with that. I still hold these in my Income Portfolio and intend to hold these for a long time, but I am happy to play the Range using Spreadbets to juice up the Profits a bit. GSK goes ExDiv on Thursday 23rd Feb and I expect it will then drop away afterwards which would suit me very nicely if it goes back down the bottom of the Range - I can then buy in again.
15/02/2017 Sold both Long Spreadbets on S&P500 at 2350 banking a nice Profit equal to about 0.9% of Portfolio Value - Trade worked out nicely. As per my 'Technical View' on M3 Manifesto page, Markets extremely Toppy in the very short term and are clearly due a Pullback of some sort. I wanted to lower Risk on the Long side and will now be looking for opportunity (in other words a clear Signal) to Short and Hedge. Key factors in my decision were RSI 73 on S&P500 and Price Candle today up above Top Bollinger Band which is an unstable condition. I have loads of Long Exposure (around 100% of Portfolio) so I am relaxed if Markets keep going up. Any Pullback I think will be just a Short Term thing as Support below is very strong - I might play a Long on the S&P500 again if an opportunity arises in coming Weeks.
9/02/2017 Bought another Long Spreadbet on S&P500 at 2308 (US500 on igindex platform) equivalent to about 15% of Total Portfolio Value so now got about 40% extra Long Exposure on top. For convenience I am keeping Stoploss Level at 2250 like my other Spreadbet and will aim to move this up in coming days to lower my Risk. Stoploss on End of Day Close basis (EOD) and I will trigger it manually not as an automatic order with igindex. See my 'Technical View' update at top of M3 Manifesto page for reasoning.
9/02/2017 Bought more Astrazeneca AZN Shares at 4535p in Income Portfolio using the Cash recently built up from Divvys. Put about 5% of Income Portfolio Value in them so now up to 10%. Goes ExDiv next thursday for 150p per share and I wanted to get in before that especially as Shares seem to be rising at the moment (of course on ExDiv day they will drop back anyway). Has a forward Divvy Yield of 5.5% and forward P/E 13 which looks very reasonable value although of course there are Risks around the £ and Trump Policy towards Pharma etc. On the flipside the Oncology Pipeline is really impressive and this should ensure plenty of Newsflow. AZN been takeover target in the past and could get looked at again although I suspect this is unlikely.
30/01/2017 Bought more GoCompare GOCO Shares at 86p worth about 1% of Portfolio. Also did Long Spreadbet on GOCO at 87p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value - so now got about 3% in them. Broke-out to a new high again today although unfortunately they fell back on what was generally a weak day. Still looks good value on Forward P/E 15 and 2.2% Dividend yield but trend is for forecast upgrades since the Blog I wrote.
27/01/2017 Closed (bought back) all remaining FTSE100 Short Positions at 7174 as FTSE100 looks to be turning up again after a period of weakness and with the £ looking topped out against the $ in the short term. I powered up ShareScope and checked the Charts after the Close today and didn't want to wait until Sunday (when I normally check the Charts) because FTSE100 spreadbets can do weird stuff Out of Hours and especially late on Sunday Night. This crystallises about a 6% of Portfolio Value Loss which is obviously unpleasant but I am not getting stressed about it as this was just clearing the Problem I had after my C*ck Ups in 2016 as I explained in my 'Scores on the Doors 2016' blog. I am ultra bullish on the Markets in general and it is so nice to get back up to 100% Long (in fact it is more like 120% Long as I have a Long on the S&P500) but if I am wrong then it doesn't take much time to whack a Short Hedge back on (with a Stoploss !!). My this feels good to be free of a Ball & Chain that has dogged me for about a year - my new Approach of using Stoplosses will avoid a repeat of this WheelieFiasco.
26/01/2017 Bought more Air Partner AIR Shares at 514p - roughly 1% of Portfolio Value so I now have about 3% in them. The interest here is because AIR are doing a 5 for 1 Share Split where the Price will in effect drop to near 100p but I will be given 5 Shares for every 1 I hold - so the value is the same. The key thing here is that AIR tends to be extremely illiquid and this puts a lot of potential investors off and also many people prefer to buy a 100p share than a 500p share (yes, it is daft because it is the Value that counts !!). Anyway, with better liquidity I expect the Spread when you buy and sell the share to reduce a lot and also there is the possibility that more Fund Managers will be interested if they can get stock more easily. AIR does broking for Private Jets and also arranges one-off Jet Charters, they also have an Aviation Consultancy bit which they bought about a year ago. The Company has a fair bit of cash (although some is 'JetCard' prepayments) and they pay a Divvy of 6.5%.
25/01/2017 Bought Long Spreadbet on S&P500 at 2299 with Stoploss at 2250 on manual End of Day Close basis. This is US 500 on igindex platform. Equivalent to about 20% of Long Portfolio - Gap up and Breakout to new All Time Highs after small pullback for all major US Indexes - looks super bullish.
17/01/2017 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more via Spreadbet at 7221 with Stoploss at 7360 on manual End of Day Close basis. Now got about 50% of my Long Portfolio hedged by value.
17/01/2017 Sold about a third of my Holding in EMR Shares at 113p each - so now got about 3.5% of Portfolio Value in them. Great business and still looks very good value on a Forward P/E of 8 but my Position had just grown way too big for an AIM Stock and I have been feeling uneasy about it for some time and the recent gains (probably following more £ weakness) finally tipped me over the edge to TopChop it a bit. It does seem crazy because I have a Target of about 140p here but we must always keep Risk firmly in mind and these Black Swan nasties can appear from anywhere at anytime and give us a right good 'broken arm'. I made probably just over 140% on these in a few years and it has been quite a pleasant ride.
11/01/2017 Bought more GoCompare.com GOCO Shares at 76.5p each, roughly 1% of Total Portfolio Value so now have maybe 1.5% in GOCO and would like to build a larger stake. Great Trading Update yesterday and on a Forward P/E of 14 and Forward Divvy of 2.4% it looks decent Value for a growth play. Bit of Debt but nothing concerning. I wrote a Blog about this today.
9/01/2017 Stopped out on US Tech 100 spreadbet (Nasdaq 100) at 5023 taking a loss of about 102 points equivalent to about 0.25% of Total Portfolio Value - a small loss but I have learnt not to fight the Market after my screw ups on Hedging over 2016. The Rules are the Rules.
9/01/2017 Sold Henderson Global Growth Unit Trust - I am keeping my Henderson Global Technology Unit Trust but I feel the Global Growth one is not as good and is less focused directly on Tech. I still like Tech as a 'Big Theme' but it has had a good run and I want to increase my Cash Position with Markets having been so buoyant for so long. I still have lots of Stocks which are in the Tech space like TCM, IOM, PAYS, PYPL so I have plenty of exposure anyway. I bought this Fund right at the Peak of the Dotcom Boom back in 1999 when I think it was called the Aberdeen Technology Fund - lots of people will have bought this I am sure !! After the Bust it fell hugely and in 2003 I think it was worth about 10% of the Money I had put in - I was clearly young and stupid and didn't have the sense to bail out !! After a mere 16 years and it doubling a couple of times I have finally sold it and lost 26% on the Money I put in - pretty shocking and an important lesson in not getting carried away by Marketing Hype at the top of a Bubble !!
5/01/2017 Bought more GLEN Glencore via a Spreadbet at 285p equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Value so I now have probably around 4% in them. I have written a 'Buy Rationale' Blog about this but in essence I want to get more weighting to Miners as Commodities rise with Trump promising more Infrastructure Spending. GLEN chart is in a lovely Uptrend.
28/12/2016 Shorted US Tech 100 in igindex as a Spreadbet on the March Contract at 4921. This is the Nasdaq 100 (you cannot do Nasdaq Composite Index in igindex) and I have done Short equivalent to about 10% of my Long Portfolio Value. Stoploss at 5010 on a manual End of Day Close basis. Markets everywhere had strong run up (not sure it is justified !!) and now signs it is cracking. Big Down Candle on Nasdaq 100 today after an Inverted Hammer Candle yesterday. Very near Bearish MACD Cross (Nasdaq Comp did one today so I expect Nasdaq 100 will follow), come off Upper Bollinger Band and RSI 56 and falling.
20/12/2016 Bought more NG. National Grid at 937p via a Spreadbet equivalent to about 2% of Total Portfolio Value. I already hold in my Income Portfolio and NG. has been falling a lot recently but seems to have bottomed out and starting to turn up. Big reliable Divvy around 5% but also NG. sold Gas Distribution Business which means will pay a Special Divvy and do Share Buybacks in early 2017. Will benefit from any Sterling weakness but if Interest Rates keep rising this might drag on NG. which is pretty much a 'Bond Proxy'. I will be patient with this but if it rises in coming weeks then I might be tempted to bank any profits but I will be keeping NG. long term in the Income Portfolio.
14/12/2016 Bought more GSK GlaxoSmithkline via a Spreadbet at 1488p equivalent to about 2% of Total Portfolio Value. I already hold this in my Income Portfolio as normal shares and I tend to be fairly opportunist with regard to Spreadbets on it. I sold my GSK Spreadbets a while back and after many weeks of falls it looks a good time to be buying in again in the hope I can squeeze out some fairly low risk gains in weeks to come. GSK has a Divvy over 5% and if you look on my Blog Page you should find a short 'Stock Buy Rationale' for it.
6/12/2016 Closed Dow Jones Index Short at 19241 - my Stoploss was set at 19235 on an 'End of Day Close' basis and it was triggered tonight so the Rules of my new approach dictate it has to be closed and that is what I did. Took a tiny Loss of 0.1% of Portfolio Value but this is exactly how it should work. Very happy that I followed the Rules and I think the System will be robust and avoid the problems I have had with Index Short Hedges all this year. I took a clear Sell Entry Signal and set a tight Stoploss - can't complain at how I executed the Trade.
2/12/2016 Bought more NPT Netplay via a Spreadbet at 8.17p equivalent to about 1% of my Total Long Exposure - I now have about 2.5% in NPT. I have been watching this Stock intently for months and looking for movement to suggest it is time to buy more - and I noticed last night that it was starting to turn up after much inactivity. Anyway, whether or not it rapidly starts to move up (unlikely !!) I should pick up 7% Dividend Yield and this is backed by a big Cash Pile and expected to rise. Strip out Cash and NPT is on a Forward P/E around 8 and looks really too cheap. I wrote a long and detailed Blog on this company back in March 2016 - you can use the Search Box on the home page or look under the Blog Archive Months on the Blog Page and select 'March 2016'.
30/11/2016 Shorted Dow Jones Industrials Index (called 'Wall Street' on igindex platform) at 19134 after very clear Inverted Hammer Candle and looks really toppy on RSI 68. Stoploss on an 'End of Day Close' basis at 19235 - just above the top of the Hammer. Equivalent to about 15% of my Long Portfolio and gives a little more Hedge against the Italy Referendum and generally toppy markets. Great opportunity to test out my new improved approach to Hedging as per recent Blog.
18/11/2016 Bought more UTW Utilitywise at 179p via a Spreadbet, equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio so now have about 4.5% in them which is one of my bigger positions. Hugely undervalued on Fwd P/E around 8 and 4% divvy. Had issues around Cash Generation before but resolved - look at how they have gone from a Net Debt position before the last Trading Update to almost no Debt now. Did Bull Flag and brokeout on Thursday 17th Feb and go exdiv on Thurs 24th Nov. I am targetting 300p. If you use the Search Box you should find lots of stuff I have written about UTW in Blogs.
15/11/2016 Bought more TTR Shares in my ISA at 130p, about 1% of Portfolio Value so now got 4% ish in them. Great company with excellent Track Record and navigated the POC Tax challenges really well. Have decent Cash Pile and if you strip this out they are on a Forward P/E well under 10. I think the Divvy is around 3% and they have done Special Dividends in the recent past - we could see more of this. I have a Target of at least 200p here. If you search on TTR in the Search Box at the top of the Homepage you should find a Blog I did a while back on them.
10/11/2016 Bought more ESUR in my ISA at 198p (about 1%) and also did an equivalent sized Long Spreadbet at 198.5p. I have held these for some time and not really had the conviction to add to the position, but they did a Trading Update in the last few days and they look to be trading well with Insurance Rates rising. The Management here are very experienced and they did a very impressive buy and then spin-out of GOCO in the last couple of years - they bought it very cheap and turned it around - that is why the irritating Opera Singer is back on the adverts !! The Share Price fell when GOCO was spun out within the last week or so. Value wise it looks very good - a Forward P/E of 10 and a Forward Divvy of 5.5%. I probably have about 3% of my Portfolio in ESUR now - this is much better because the previous small Position was a bit pointless really.
10/11/2016 Bought more GFRD in my ISA at 1300p with about 1% size - I must now have 4% of Portfolio in GFRD and I hoping I have timed things nicely to benefit from a well established trend for Housebuilders to do well in Jan to March. GFRD is a mix of Houses and General Construction and gives me exposure to the latter that I don't have otherwise - if you use the Search Box on the Homepage you should be able to find a Blog I wrote some months back. I am thinking these sort of Stocks could do well in the lead up to the Chancellor's Autumn Budget on 23rd November - to back this up, GFRD did a 50/200 Day Golden Cross recently and these tend to be pretty good signals. The value here looks great - it is on a Forward Divvy Yield of nearly 8% and a Forward P/E of 7.3 - seems very appealing despite the rise over the Summer.
10/11/2016 Bought more MOSB in my ISA at 98p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio. I have wanted more of these for a while but whenever I had spare Cash something else seemed to be winking at me alluringly. Unfortunately I cannot 'mirror' these as a Spreabet as igIndex are not doing a market in them. I probably have about 3% of Portfolio in MOSB now. This is very much a Value play with a big divvy of 6% and this is forecast to rise and is backed by a big Cash Pile which derisks things a lot. This is still a turnaround play with the CEO Brian Brick being really capable and transformed the business from the old dowdy Shops to something a lot more modern and attractive to customers. There is also considerable potential in the online bit now they have launched a new website and are focusing on this part of the business. The big risks are around any Slowdown in the Economy but you can apply this to any Cyclical Stock and few have the safety of MOSB with that Cash Pile.
8/11/2016 Sold XUKS Short FTSE100 ETF in my ISA at 599p - similar reasons as on the FTSE100 Short Spreadbets below. I bought this at 472p back in February which was a poor Trade but it has hedged my Portfolio through some ropey periods. I lost 21% on the Trade but this was only 0.8% of the Total Portfolio Value. I am now around 85% Long and ready for the traditionally strong months of November and December with the US Election out of the way.
7/11/2016 Closed (bought back) another Chunk of the FTSE100 Spreadbets at 6820 - crystallising a really stinging Loss equal to about 2.2% of Total Portfolio Value. I am pleased to have taken Decisive Action to reduce a 'problem' I have been dogged by all year and I now have a Short Position that is less than half of what it was prior to my action tonight. My Position now is far more manageable and it gives me some insurance in case Trump Wins and causes a shock similar to what happened after the Brexit Vote. It is obvious I need to rethink my Shorting / Hedging approach and I am most likely going to adopt a Stoploss Strategy on all such Positions in future and I need to reduce the Exposure Sizes - I let them get too big. Readers of my recent Psychology Blogs will recognise this as classic 'Mental Accounting' but to make me feel a little bit better I like to see the Losses as 'foregoing gains' rather than actually losing Money - remember these are 'Hedges' so what I have lost on the Shorts I have pretty much balanced with gains on the Long Portfolio of Stocks I hold. OK, this is nonsense but hey I need cheering up !!
7/11/2016 Closed (bought back) the remainder of the Nasdaq 100 Short Spreadbets at 4785, crystallising a Loss of about 0.7% of Portfolio Value. I have been struggling with these Shorts all year and I think it is the right course of action to take - Nasdaq Chart has some bullish features and I don't want to get steamrollered !!
7/11/2016 Closed (bought back) about half my Nasdaq 100 Short Spreadbets at 4769. Combined with the FTSE100 Shorts I closed around the same time, I have crystallised a Loss equal to about 0.6% of my Total Portfolio Value - this is a bit irritating but I don't get overly stressed by having to take small Losses. As per the Entry below, I think it is the correct action to reduce my Shorts as we head into Winter but I am happy to keep a bit of Trump Insurance - it is pretty scary to think that despite the Sell-off last week, Markets are still very near their All Time Highs and we could have a total Fruitbat (with funny hair) in the White Bungalow.
7/11/2016 Closed (bought back) about a quarter of my FTSE100 Short Spreadbets at 6802. Regular Readers will know the difficult time I have had with these Positions this year and I am extremely eager to reduce these Hedges as we head towards Winter. Sadly the Markets rallied a bit today as sentiment moved back towards a Clinton Win which doesn't make my task of Closing the Shorts any easier or more palatable. I don't mind keeping much smaller Shorts as a Trump Win is very possible but I do not want to get caught with Positions that are over-sized as mine were before. I will look at Charts etc. later tonight and tomorrow to see if I get an opportunity to reduce them even more. Please see my recent Blog 'The Trump Dump.....' for more details on this.
12/10/2016 Sold half of my Spreadbets on Trifast TRI at 170p which is roughly a third of my Total Exposure including Normal Shares. TRI is a great business with decent management but I have held it for a few years and I feel that for a cyclical company the value is not as good as it was. It is on a forward P/E of 17 and that is quite high really - I am happy to hold what I have left but I am just banking some Profits and lowering my Risk. The Price had jumped up after recent Results and has put in some Doji Candles and looks likely to calm down a bit now - so it seems a reasonable time to TopChop some off. I made 105% on the 83p I paid for them and because it was Leveraged the Return on Initial Capital used was 418% - leverage is great when it works in your favour like this, but it is really nasty when it goes against you so Spreadbets and CFDs must be used with a deep understanding of the Exposure and Risk you are running. I guess I have gone from about 4% of my Portfolio Exposure in TRI down to about 3% ish.
7/10/2016 Sold about a third of my Exposure to BooHoo BOO at 120p via closing about half of my Spreadbet Long Position. It's had an amazing run recently and looks very toppy in the Short Term on a Forward P/E around 50 and the chart has 'gone vertical'. I felt it could get up to 120p and once it got there I was looking for indications it might start to drop back - it put in a Hammer Candle on Thursday 6th October and that made my Decision to go ahead and do the TopChop. I still like BOO Long Term and I still have about 4% to 5% of my Long Portfolio Exposure in it via Spreadbets and Normal Shares. It had got up to around 7% of the Portfolio and it seemed prudent to me to reduce Risk and bank some Profits. I made about 300% on the Position (and it was leveraged on top via the Spreadbets) so it worked out very sweetly. The great thing about TopSlicing is that I have reduced risk, banked profits and I am still in the game if it continues to rise.
29/09/2016 Bought Devro DVO Shares at 241p as a small Starter Position at around 1% of Total Portfolio Value. DVO had recent Profit Warning as a result of Delays and increased Costs in establishing a China factory. I think this is a good opportunity to buy into a Quality Stock at a good price and the extra capacity will give Growth in future. DVO has a lot of Debt which has probably caused much of the Sell-off - however, once the Investment in the Factories is complete, the high Cash Generation will quickly pay down the Debt. I am workng on a Blog about DVO and expect this to go live soon. It pays a Divvy around 3.5% and is on a forward P/E of 12.
14/09/2016 Shorted Nasdaq 100 a little bit more at 4734 - this comes up on IGindex Spreadbetting as 'US Tech 100'. I did a Position equivalent to about 10% of my Long Portfolio Value. I already had 2 Shorts here but I just fancied a tiny bit more as the Nasdaq is still right up near its Highs and with the overall tone of the Markets being very weak, I fancied a little more Hedge. See my 'Technical View' at the bottom of the M3 Manifesto page.
31/08/2016 Closed (Sold) both the ARM Holdings ARM Spreadbets I had open at 1696p. I sold the Normal Shares last week but now the Shareholders have voted to accept the Softbank Deal so I am happy to move on - with Spreadbets there is a small Finance Charge so no point holding on to them for too long if there is no more upside potential. This worked out a dream Trade - the Spreadbets delivered about 70% gain on the Exposure and because of the Leverage, they returned about 700% on the Capital used as Initial Margin. Of course I am very happy with the return here in just under a year and it gets me 1 Stock nearer the mythical WD40.
26/08/2016 Bought more Entertainment One ETO at 218p as normal Shares in my ISA from recycling some of the ARM Dosh. This is a lovely 'Special Situation' where ITV made a Takeover Approach at 236p a Share and ETO said it "materially undervalues the business". Anyway, the Bid fell through but the important thing to realise here is that ITV have basically sent a very clear message to People who are prepared to listen that ETO is worth AT LEAST 236p a Share - think about it, ITV are unlikely to make their highest Offer first - that would be idiotic as a Negotiation technique. We do not know precisely why ITV have withdrawn but it is probably very likely that they were not prepared to pay what ETO Directors (and I think we need to include Canada Pensions here who are a big holder) said would be a fair price. In addition, there are lots of rumours swirling around that some US based Businesses are interested in ETO - names in the frame are KKR, Liberty Media and possibly Disney - bear in mind that they have a huge advantage over ITV because of the weak £ after Brexit - so in effect the US Players could pay at least 10% more than ITV even if they just matched the ITV Offer (I haven't explained that too well !!). I have seen a Breakup Analysis of ETO that gives a Target Value of 360p if the bits of the Company like TV, Films, Kids (Peppa Pig) were sold off individually - this is probably a bit high realistically, so I am looking for 300p a Share here really. The great thing about this situation is that if no Bid happens, I still end up with a very good business at a decent Price - the Forward P/E for next year is 11.5 and for the following year it is 9.4 - obviously there is risk around whether or not they will meet these Forecasts, but it is arguably Very Cheap (there is also a token, but growing, Divvy Yield of about 0.6%). There have been some concerns about the Acquisition Strategy being too aggressive and the Accounting is a nightmare because of this endless adding of new Divisions - however, this issue is out in the open and you can bet Canada Pensions will be turning the thumbscrews to get the Directors to calm down a bit. The issues around these things have been annoying but the simple fact is that the Shares would not be this cheap if they had not happened - so it is a blessing in disguise. When ITV canned their Bid yesterday, ETO Shares tanked down as low as 205p at one point from 250p earlier in the day - and I know a lot of people were getting Stoplossed Out (don't start me on that subject) and by the Close it was at 215p. I looked at the Chart last night and concluded that if it opened higher today, I would buy more - so I nipped in at 218p. I bought about another 1% of my Portfolio Value and I am now up to about 3% in ETO - let's hope this Little Piggy can Fly to Market !!
25/08/2016 Bought more Utilitywise UTW at 140p via normal Shares in my ISA. Having written a Blog recently about this and discussing with Justin on the recent Podcast (see top of Homepage for a link), I realised that I did not really have enough exposure to UTW when it clearly looks very attractive and undervalued. I have now gone from about 2% of Portfolio Value up to 3% in total. I now have a sizeable Cash position in my ISA so I am ready for any possible Autumn onslaught - although I might deploy a bit on more ETO.
25/08/2016 Sold ARM Holdings ARM from my Trading ISA at 1688p. The Softbank takeover looks to be a 'Done Deal' with no other competing bids and I wanted some Cash to topup on UTW - so I am very happy to sell out and not wait for the cogs to grind round to deliver me 1700p - apart from the dead time, there is a risk the bid could collapse. I rarely wait for the Bid to complete as it can takes months and months. This worked out very nicely and I banked a Profit of 60% having bought back in October 2015 - I also have a Spreadbet Position and I will probably close this next week.
3/08/2016 Bought more Golden Prospect GPM via a Spreadbet at 49p equivalent to about 0.8% of Total Portfolio Value. Must have roughly about 3.5% of Portfolio in GPM now. Gold Chart looks superb with both 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages rising and with all the QE and silly low Interest Rate shenanigans going on, I think Gold is back in a Major Bull Market. Overall I am cautious on the Markets as they have had a superb run since the Brexit Vote and the beauty with GPM is that it can probably hold up pretty well if Markets continue to rise and it can act as a Hedge if Markets do the usual Autumnal Drop. If you poke around in the Blog Archive you should be able to find a Blog I scribbled recently which explains a bit more about GPM.
2/08/2016 Shorted Nasdaq 100 a bit more via Spreadbet at 4718 equivalent to about 10% of Portfolio Long Exposure. With igindex this is shown as 'US Tech 100'. Now got about 85% of Long Portfolio Exposure hedged via FTSE100 and Nasdaq 100 Shorts.
2/08/2016 Shorted FTSE100 a little bit more via a Spreadbet at 6658, equivalent to about another 10% of Portfolio Long Exposure - so now Hedged via FTSE100 and Nasdaq 100 Shorts to about 85%. That's high, but I might go a little more if clear signals given.
1/08/2016 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more via a Spreadbet at 6673, equivalent to about 10% of Long Exposure. Now got about 60% of my Long Exposure Hedged via FTSE100 Shorts and Nasdaq100 Shorts. Markets look toppy and Autumn usually a difficult time for the Markets. Oil Price very weak and this could drag the FTSE100 down.
28/07/2016 Bought some McCarthy & Stone MCS Shares at 169p - roughly about 1.25% of Portfolio Value - so I now have about 2.5% in MCS and I might add some more when Cash becomes free if the Price is nice and low. MCS along with all other Housebuilders got really beat up after the Brexit Vote and it looks very overdone - I held off buying more until I saw that loads of Housebuilders (notably Taylor Wimpey TW. yesterday) have put out Trading Statements and said that there was an initial increase in Cancellations but this has now reversed and they are selling Homes no problem. I don't think the UK is going into Recession and I am happy to put my Money on this view - this is also supported by Recruiters saying they are not finding a Slowdown. MCS specialises in Retirement Homes and I think this is a nice defensive niche that makes MCS the pick of the Housebuilder crop. Next year it has a forecast Divvy of 5% which is very attractive.
28/07/2016 Bought more Golden Prospect GPM Shares at 46p - roughly 0.8% of total Portfolio Value - which brings me up to around 3% in GPM now. I think Gold is properly in a Bull Market again as Central Banks print money like crazy and Governments abandon 'Austerity' and keep spending - we had a wave down on Gold recently and it looks to me like it is turning up again. GPM Chart seems to be mirroring this and I think now is a good time to get more exposure. I see this as a Long Term Hold and I reckon the upside could be huge. The Investment Trust is still trading on a wide Discount and if this narrows then that will help drive the Shares up. If you look under category 'Stock Buy Rationale' there should be a Blog on GPM somewhere.
27/07/2016 Sold Lamprell LAM Shares at 70p taking a thumping great loss. Big disappointment this one - I bought into them some years ago and they got into terrible trouble with delays with building Oil Rigs which were essentially down to very poor Project Management. Anyway, new Management were brought in and things seemed to be back on track although the Shares have not really done much all that time - probably because the Oil Price fell off a cliff and that has made people very wary of investing in Oil Services businesses. A couple of days ago LAM put out a Trading Update saying that they had a delay on one Rig they were building but far worse was that they have said that 2017 Revenues will be hit - obviously this means more waiting and I think it just emphasises how businesses that have 'lumpy' big orders are very susceptible to problems and slowdowns in orders. With the Oil Price weak again, I don't see how LAM can go anywhere for ages. There might be the small chance of a takeover bid but if a larger player wanted it, they have had plenty of chances to snap it up over the last few years. The Balance Sheet appears to have a big Cash Pile but I suspect much of this is Customer Payments upfront - worth checking this if you hold LAM or thinking of buying. Part of my problem with LAM is that I only had a position worth about 0.2% of my Portfolio - so even if there was a Takeover Bid, there would be very little meaningful upside for me. In addition, due to the continual problems (LAM is clearly a 'Serial Disappointer') there is no way I would commit more Cash to it to Average Down - so it was really a Position that has no use for me. I don't mind holding Stocks that have had issues if I can see a future for them and if I feel I can Average Down at some point - with LAM it is clearly not safe to do this. I lost about 75% on the Position and overall it hit my Portfolio to the tune of about 1.5% - annoying, but fortunately my Position Sizing Rules have kept the Loss manageable. I get the sense that LAM is a very average business in a very poor Sector at the moment - just seems no point in holding on to it.
13/07/2016 Shorted Nasdaq 100 Index at 4561 - on igindex platform this is 'US Tech 100'. Did Position equivalent to about 15% of my Long Exposure - so my Total Shorts now are about 55% Hedging my Longs. I have had a tough time with the FTSE100 so I wanted to Short something else - considered the S&P500 but it is making new All Time Highs (ATH) and I think that might be dangerous. Nasdaq giving some Bearish signs like a 'Bearish Engulfing' Candle today and looks ready to drop.
12/07/2016 Sold GlaxoSmithKline GSK Spreadbets at 1636p and 1639p, banking a Profit of about 12% on the Exposure (again this was leveraged so ROCE a lot higher). Just like BA. it had got really toppy on a high RSI and up above the Top Bollinger Band etc. - it just looks overdone in the Short Term. I am still not happy to take big Risks to the Long Side and where I see opportunities I am looking to bank profit and reduce my overall exposure. As with BA., I will be keeping a chunk of GSK in my Income Portfolio and if it falls back a lot, then I will be tempted to buy in again. Over the GSK sells and the BA. sells I banked a Profit equivalent to about 1% of my Total Portfolio Exposure.
12/07/2016 Closed Bae Systems BA. Spreadbets at 538p and 539p, banking about 15% Profit on the Exposure (this was leveraged so the Return on Capital was very high). Also sold BA. Shares in my ISA at 538p banking a Profit of 15% (I have also had some Divvys on top of this). I am keeping BA. in my Income Portfolio because it still has a decent yield and is a quality, defensive play, however it has got a bit toppy with RSI up over 70 and looks really stretched to the upside as it nears Resistance from the All Time Highs. I would love a decent drop so I can buy back in again.
6/07/2016 Sold Vislink VLK Shares and Spreadbets after very worrying Profit Warning. Trading deteriorated and the RNS mentions "Banking Covenants" which is pretty much the worst Red Flag you can ever see - I think there is a serious Risk VLK could be bust or at best need a big Rights Issue. It is very annoying how this has worked out because VLK was a great business until the current Management screwed it up - ironic that there is no way their Greedy Bonus Plan will pay out now !! I took a bit hit here losing about 60% on the Shares I held and 40% on the Spreadbet Exposure - although in reality this was slightly better as I had received a few Dividends. Overall I took a hit equivalent to about 1% of my Overall Portfolio Value so it is not that big a deal and something that goes with the territory. I got a bit lucky because the RNS was issued at 8.15am in the morning and I think I saw it before many other people - which enabled me to get my Spreadbets away at 26p but unfortunately I could not sell my Shares at the Market Price (it was 22p at the time) and I was very keen to dump them so I put in a Limit Order at 18p which got filled. I thought I had perhaps let them go too cheap but they have since fallen to 12p so that made me feel a lot better about it !!
5/07/2016 Closed the FTSE100 Short I placed last night at 6541 - so breakeven on the Trade. FTSE100 just totally failing to hedge my Long Portfolio whereas things like the DAX are tanking - this is a right nuisance and not how FTSE100 normally behaves. I have closed this Short with a view to looking at the Index Charts later tonight and maybe opening a Short on the DAX or the S&P500. So now back to about 40% Hedged (although it just isn't working - the Strategy is 100% right).
4/07/2016 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more at 6542, equivalent to about 15% of my Long Exposure so now Hedged to about 55%. As per my Blog from Sunday Night (3rd July), FTSE100 looks toppy and due a pullback. Charts of all the big Megacaps like RDSB, AZN, HSBA, BP., NG., GSK, etc. look overbought.
28/06/2016 Bought more Quantum Pharma QP. via a Spreadbet at 70p, equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio in terms of Normal Shares so must have about 3% in total now. Had problems after I bought initially which were largely down to poor Pipeline Management and communicating with Market - both issues look better sorted now. Mark Slater was buying in recently and this got me keen to Average Down. There is a Blog on them somewhere on the Blog page.
27/06/2016 Closed (bought back) half of my FTSE100 Short Spreadbets at 5977, taking a small loss of less than 0.5% of Portfolio Value. Markets been royally spanked last few days and it looks a bit overdone so I am lowering my Hedges. Still got about 40% of my Long Portfolio hedged. Will be looking to Short more if we get a decent Rally but won't be making any snap decisions. Some FTSE250 Stocks, especially Housebuilders, got really hit hard and look very oversold, as does the FTSE250 Index. Also the whole Crisis is all over the Main News Bulletins on TV and that is often a sign that we are about to move up again. I think the Summer will still be very difficult so still need to be careful.
27/06/2016 Bought more GPM Golden Prospect Shares at 40p. Roughly about 1% of Portfolio Exposure so now up to about 2.5% in total. Wanted more Gold exposure with so much Political & Economic turmoil. I wrote a Blog about these recently - look under Category 'Stock Buy Rationale'.
26/06/2016 Shorted FTSE100 a bit more via DFB Spreadbet at 5959 equivalent to about 15% of my Long Exposure - so now Hedged to about 75%. I am very concerned about the fallout from the Brexit Vote and expect further falls as per the Strategy outlined in my 'Weekly Performance' on the Homepage. 5959 is a bit higher than I wanted so I reduced the size of the Bet - if it goes up, I might Short more !!
14/06/2016 Closed about a third of my FTSE100 Short Spreadbets. I closed the one from 7/06/2016 at 5880 (that was the Sept2016 Quarterly one) and a couple of others at 5934 - equivalent to about 20% of Long Exposure - so I now have roughly 60% of my Long Portfolio Hedged with remaining Short FTSE100 Positions. I banked about 1% of Portfolio Value as Profit on these which is really nice because Hedges are not really about making money, they are about NOT LOSING money on my Long Portfolio - i.e. reducing Downside Risk from General Market moves. My reasons for Closing were really down to Technical Factors - Overbought/Oversold Indicator at an extreme low, RSI at 36 which is low for FTSE100. Higher volume today than in last 3 Down Days. US Markets putting in Doji Candles which suggests they might try to move up. Brexit Vote about 7 days away still so I have kept a lot of Hedges, but I will try and reduce these in coming days before the Vote. See my recent Blog on 'Scenario Plan' for more inspiration.
10/06/2016 Shorted Tesla TSLA via a Spreadbet at 22537, small Position as HIGH RISK equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Value. Regular Readers and Peeps who follow me on Tweets will know how I have been stalking TSLA for Short as I think it is crazily overvalued and potentially a superb Short. With Markets going a bit iffy with Brexit very soon and a clear 'Inverted Hammer' Candle from Wednesday, it seems a good time to open a Short. The issues here are numerous - woeful reliability, loss making and burning cash, debt like crazy, cult around Elon Musk (who has never made money in anything after PYPL), impossible to meet Production Targets, Competition moving in, Hydrogen will be winner in future most likely, Range issues on Electric Cars, etc. I will probably play this in a tactical way and not be too greedy - I think it is at least 4 or 5 times overvalued and expect to be able to play shorts on this Stock over and over in coming months. I have written a Draft Blog and will try to issue it in next few days.
7/06/2016 Added another FTSE100 Short Spreadbet on the Sept2016 Quarterly Contract at 6202, when the DFB (Daily Funded Bet) was at 6266. Equivalent to about another 10% of my Long Exposure so now up to about 80% Hedged. Brexit Vote very soon and FTSE100 and US Markets all put in Inverted Hammer Candles today which could be a Reversal Signal that recent upmove has run out of puff - no surprise with US Indexes up near very strong resistance near All Time Highs. I will use Stoploss on this, probably up above 6500.
26/05/2016 I sold all of my Threadneedle American Select (Smaller Companies) Unit Trust. I have been agonising over this for many weeks and finally decided to dump it. So far this year has been surprising in many ways, especially with a major collapse just as we started into January and I cannot see this kind of Market behaviour changing much in coming months with the Brexit Vote about 3 weeks away and then with Donald Trump being elected as US President later in the year !! With such a backdrop and with the S&P500 up near All Time Highs I just feel it's prudent to take some Cash out of Equities and I still have US exposure through my 2 Tech Funds and the Health Fund. The other drawback of all these Unit Trusts is that they don't pay dividends - and if I have Equity Exposure I would rather it was to Stocks that yield some sort of Income - it really does help Overall Returns (I would rather have Money in my Income Portfolio than in such non-Divvy Funds). All these Funds are very much Legacy Holdings for me which I bought right at the Peak of the DotCom Boom back in about 2000 - so I have held them around 15 years. This American Select Fund has done OK since the big drop in 2003 when it was probably worth only a fifth of its initial value but it has slowly crawled its way back and it has probably just about matched Cash since I bought it !! The problem is not with the Fund, it is with my stupidity at buying right at the DotCom Peak but of course that was when I really was utterly clueless at what I was doing in the Markets !! There is a very important lesson here that the point when you buy pretty much determines what Return you make on any Trade - this is why it is critical to have an understanding of how to Value a Company and to use Technical Analysis etc. to try and time trades well. Obviously it could be argued that selling this Fund will reduce my Diversification but I have so many Equity Positions that I doubt it will really make all that much difference - in fact, building up Cash Reserves will de-risk to some extent across all my Assets.
20/05/2016 Opened a FTSE100 Short Spreadbet on a Jun2016 Quarterly Contract at 6126.8 (this is slightly confusing as the FTSE100 was about 6134 at the time) equivalent to about 5% of my Long Portfolio, so my Shorts are up to about 70% of my Long Shares Portfolios. I put the Short on as Indexes look pretty weak overall especially in the US which is in a clear Downtrend Channel, as per my Blogs and Technical Views - and obviously the Brexit Vote is now just 4 weeks away and I think this will be major a headwind. This is a bit of an experiment because I normally use 'Daily Funded' Spreadbets (DFBs) but I think the Quarterly Futures Bets might be cheaper if held for a longer period - I never intend to hold my Hedges long term but sometimes they play out that way and the Financing Costs can mount up. I have done a small one so I can learn how they work but it is confusing as the Prices are totally different to the underlying FTSE100 - unlike DFBs which are very close to the underlying market. I might add more Shorts in the coming week - let's see how it plays out.
6/05/2016 Closed the Short Spreadbet on FTSE100 that I opened 28/04/2016 at 6154 - banked Profit worth about 0.3% of Total Portfolio Value. So I now am back to about 65% Hedged against my Long Portfolio of Stocks and I expect a bit of a bounce in the Markets next week before another Selloff - My hope is that I can get another Short on to catch such a wave down if it happens - which I think is very likely as the Brexit Vote looms into view, people will be selling any rally. If I fail to get another Short on it won't be a disaster - my Short Position is chunky anyway so I am well positioned whatever the Markets decide to do in coming weeks. My trigger to Close the Short today was that we put in a Hammer Candle at the Close of Play after a solid week of Selling and the RSI and Overbought/Oversold Indicators were getting very low.
3/05/2016 Bought GPM Golden Prospect Precious Metals Investment Trust via a Spreadbet at 36.5p - ideally I would have bought normal Shares but I had no spare funds in my Dealing Accounts. I bought about 1.5% of my Total Portfolio Exposure and really bought as a relatively low risk proxy for the Gold Price which is behaving in a very bullish manner. At the time of writing this I am working on a Blog so that should appear on my Blog Page under 'Stock Buy Rationale' from the night of 4th May 2016. GPM is in effect a Fund that holds stakes in 38 Mining Companies mainly involved with Gold and Silver.
28/04/2016 Shorted FTSE100 via Spreadbet at 6279 equivalent to about 10% of Long Exposure - so now got a Short Position equivalent to about 75% of Longs. Wanted to get my Average Price of the Shorts Up and it looks to me like 'Sell in May' is on the way and a pullback for Brexit Vote is most likely. I have put a Manual Stoploss on this where I will close the Bet and take a loss if it goes over 6525 on an End of Day basis. I am using a Stoploss because I already have difficulties with my huge Short Position and I don't want to add to the problem !!
21/03/2016 Bought more NPT Netplay shares at 9.75p - about 1% of Portfolio Exposure and I now have about 1.5% of Portfolio in them - this is too low really and I will be looking to buy more when I have the funds free to do it. I mentioned these on a recent Podcast as one that looked very undervalued but I was waiting for Results to confirm that it was recovering after problems caused by the introduction of the Gambling Point of Consumption (POC) Tax. NPT do the 'Supercasino' thing on ITV and Channel 5 late at night and they have recently extended the agreements. They also have other Casino and similar Gambling Websites and they also have a Sports Betting bit. It reminds me hugely of 32Red TTR which I have made a nice chunk of Cash on - TTR was also hit by the POC Tax and the reality is that these companies both reduced their Marketing spend and focused their Customer Acquisition better - with the result that Costs have been reduced but they are still growing strongly - NPT results for 2016 so far are way ahead of last year. What has happened is that the POC Tax has driven out illegal competition and actually helped NPT. They have a Cash Pile of about £10m (Market Cap £21m) and today announced Dividends of about 1.24p a share - so on my Buy Price I am getting 13% back and the Exdiv Date is in May so plenty of time to take advantage. If you strip out the Cash Pile from the Market Cap they are trading on just under 8 times Historic Cash Profits and with the growth I expect this to fall - it is very cheap. In addition, I expect a Dividend Yield next year just under 6%. The Cash is likely to be used on Acquisitions and they turned one down recently because the numbers didn't stack up - I am looking for at least 50% upside here and in coming days I will look closer at this and try to come up with a sensible Target.
17/03/2016 Sold INTQ Spreadbet at 178p taking a painful loss of 50% on my Exposure. I bought these a couple of years ago and luckily I only had a small Spreadbet Position because it was AIM and quite High Risk I thought but it gave me exposure to the very fast growing Mobile App space. I can't quite remember the exact sequence of events but for whatever reason I was very fortunate in not adding to the Position - chances are it started falling soon after I bought so I did not want to add when it was in Negative Momentum. At some point rumours started coming out about it being a Fraud and it got hammered recently when Globo GBO blew up because INTQ is also Greek and there was a guilt by association - but I will stress that nothing has ever been proven despite many assertions by the likes of Evil Kneival etc. In the end, Tosca and Penta (Hedge Funds really) bought INTQ - and if it is not a fraud, then they utterly stole it off Shareholders so I feel a bit hard done by. However, it is all part of the Great Game and as much as it is frustrating the reality is that I did well not to commit much Money to it and I only took a hit equivalent to 0.4% of my Portfolio Value so it is no big deal.
24/02/2016 Sold EBAY Spreadbet at 2339c for probably a small loss - it was a Share Split where I got PYPL as well and I am keeping that but dumped EBAY. Recent Results were not great and the future strategy is unclear to me - they seem to want to take on Amazon but not doing too well at it. The Auction bit is plodding along but I cannot see it doing much. There is no Divvy and I just don't see anything appealing to make me want to hold it. Gets me nearer the WD40 !!!
18/02/2016 Shorted FTSE100 even more with a Spreadbet at 5974, equivalent to another 10% of my Long Exposure - so now about 65% hedged. The Major Downtrends are still in place as per my Blogs and after a strong Up Week we put in some signals today that the Trend may reverse down now. The Overbought/Oversold Indicator is particularly high and turned down and Nasdaq Comp and Nikkei have given Bearish signals on the Candles today. Brent Oil looks bearish and Gold looks bullish - both these favour falls in the Indexes. 50 Day MA on the FTSE100 dominating the Price and it tends to turn down around here. RSI has turned down from around 55 and this is where it has turned down from for nearly a year now.
09/02/2016 Shorted FTSE100 a little bit more via a Spreadbet at 5710 equivalent to another 10% of my Long Portfolio Value so now got about 55% Hedged. Markets are just so weak and I am taking no chances - I expect a lot more downside before this Bear packs off to the Woods again. Hedging been working well and taking the edge off the falls but I wanted just a little bit more to equalise things if I can.
21/01/2016 Shorted FTSE100 even more on a Spreadbet at 5667 equivalent to about 10% of Portfolio Value. Now got around 45% Hedged but feel that I need to sell a bit more Stock and Short more. The inability of the Markets to rally after such a good Setup from the US last night is most concerning - shows total lack of Buyer interest.
20/01/2016 After selling all those Stocks, I had a fair bit of Cash so I blew most of it on the DB X-Trackers FTSE100 Short ETF XUKS at 599p. This is worth about 5% of my Total Portfolio Exposure so I think I am in total at about 35% Hedged now.
20/01/2016 Opened another FTSE100 Short Spreadbet at 5734 equivalent to about 10% of my Total Portfolio Value. I guess I have about 30% Short Hedged now.
20/01/2016 Sold one Avation AVAP Spreadbet at 139p. Similar to SIV below, nothing wrong here but just reducing Risk. Made about 20% on the Exposure and 70% on the Capital Used.
20/01/2016 Sold one of my St. Ives SIV Spreadbets at 214p. Nothing wrong with this company but I just want to lower Risk and build Cash. I banked about 15% on the Exposure and about 50% on the Capital Used. I still have loads which I am happy to hold on to.
20/01/2016 Sold half my Paysafe PAYS (used to be Optimal Payments OPAY) normal Shares at 386p and sold about half my Spreadbets at about 384p. I have no idea what the Profit was here as there was a Share Split and I think I have screwed up my Spreadsheet for recording my Trades because none of it makes sense and I could spend all night sorting it out !! I know it was a chunky gain though. Again it is a great business in a hot sector so I am happy to hold the remaining Positions I have.
20/01/2016 Sold all my Finsbury Food FIF normal Shares at 113p. I am not sure about this company - it is in a lovely Uptrend and I hate selling such situations but I just think the Food Supply sector is very difficult and they are under extreme pressure from Supermarkets to keep prices down. I have agonised over this for months and months but finally with the overall Market Collapse I think it is time to ditch it. I also sold my FIF Spreadbets at 112p. I banked 65% Profit on the Shares and similar on the Spreadbet Exposure - on the Capital Used it was about 250% due to the gearing effect. Held it for a couple of years.
20/01/2016 Sold half of my normal Shares in Safestyle SFE at 249p. Again this is a great business and looks pretty good value but the Market has changed and become more about Liquidity now - Valuations are almost irrelevant - people (like me) are selling what they can sell, not necessarily what they should sell. Also sold about half of my Long Spreadbets on SFE at 244p. I banked around 60% Profit on the Shares and similar on the Spreadbet Exposure but on the Capital Used it was about 235% up.
20/01/2016 Sold half of my normal Shares holding in CAMB Cambria Automobiles at 81p - this is a really excellent business which I like a lot but as per my reasons on the European Growth Unit Trust trade below, I feel a need to bank some profits and reduce Long Exposure overall. I can always buy back when the dust settles - a long time off I suspect. I banked about 55% profit after a few years.
20/01/2016 Sold all my European Growth Unit Trust as per a recent Blog where I was weighing this up (it's the Blog about 'Diversification - am I enjoying too much of a good thing?' from November 2015 and was in a few parts - that should show you my reasons for dumping). With FTSE100 failing at 5768 it is clear to me that we are in for a very tough Market and I want to reduce Long Exposure and increase Shorts to Hedge what I have left. This year will not be about making money, Capital Preservation will be the name of the game. I expect there to be a stunning Buying Opportunity once all this plays out but I think this will be much later in 2016 probably not until November time. We have the Brexit Vote late in the summer and I cannot see the UK Market rising in advance of this much. There is a big lesson for people on this Unit Trust - I have held it for 16 years and sold with a very small profit - probably not even 10% (of course in Real Terms allowing for inflation this is a big Loss - and it did not pay a Dividend over all the time I held it). This was one of my first Investments and I bought it in 2000 at the pinnacle of the Dotcom Boom - it's funny now but the stress it caused me in 2003 when the Markets were in total collapse was unreal. After that malaise I reckon it was worth maybe a fifth of what I put in and it has taken all these years to get back to just a bit more than I put in - shocking. On the flipside, for people who bought around that 2003 bottom it has returned over 5 times !!
14/01/2016 Sold half my Spreadbets on 32Red TTR at 141p banking a profit of about 50% on the Exposure and 190% on the Capital used (the joys of Gearing/Leverage when it goes your way !!). As per reasoning below, I wanted to lower Risk and bank some Profit. Closing a Spreadbet reduces Exposure in my Spreadbet Account and frees up Cash from the Deposit which is no longer needed - giving me more 'Buffer' to ride out the storms.
14/01/2016 Sold half my 32Red TTR Shares at 143p, banking a sweet profit of 120%. This has been a wonderful Trade and it has shot up lately - probably too fast as the chart has gone parabolic. I still see a fair bit of upside in TTR but it had grown into a large Position and it must be appreciated that this is really a Risky AIM Stock and it is daft to be over-exposed to it. With Markets looking rough I want to build Cash and it seems sensible to bank some of the gains here.
13/01/2016 Shorted (Sold) FTSE100 Spreadbet at 5857 equivalent to about 20% of my overall Long Portfolio and Hedges about 50% of my Spreadbet Account. Very bad failure in US of a nice Bull Setup and failure of Support in a big way. This looks rough and I want some protection. I can add more Short if I need to or of course take it off but I suspect I can run it a while to Hedge my Longs a bit. If Markets move up then I make on my Longs to offset losses on the Short - however, I expect any Rally to be sold and I will most likely add to the FTSE100 Short if I see the right Sell Signals. If Market drops and goes below 5768 on an End of Day basis, I will add to the Short in a big way - such a failure would be very bad and opens up as low as 5200 or 4800 even. Be careful out there - best approach is do nothing and ride it out, but make sure any Leveraged Positions are managed. My Hedging is not about making a Profit on the Trade, it is about Capital Preservation and removing some Downside Risk - in effect I have sold 20% of my Portfolio by putting this one easy trade on. A profit on the Hedge Trade would be a sweet bonus.
13/01/2016 Bought more Trifast TRI via a Spreadbet at 121p - worth about 1% of Portfolio Exposure - now got around 3% in them. I am targeting around 180p here and it seems very possible that a Takeover could happen - Hellermann Tyton HTY was taken out on a p/e over 20. TRI is on a Forward P/E of 10 with something like 2.5% Divvy. It has £16m of debt or so but this is really from the Italian Washing Machine fastener business acquisition and expect Cash Generation to drive this down. Main focus is Car Fasteners like Nuts & Bolts, Ties, Clips, etc. and many Fasteners are designed into the products with the Manufacturer so TRI has a pretty captive market for many products. The Risks are around Forex and it is obviously cyclical. Very well managed though and truly a quality business. I find the chart very choppy and hard to 'read' - been looking for a good entry point but hard to find - so decided to buy on valuation grounds and it's got a good long term uptrend.
3/01/2016 Bought another Spreadbet on McCarthy & Stone MCS at 262p - equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value in total exposure terms. Now got 2% in them. Saw Forecast EPS somewhere of 22p and I think a possible Target is 350p maybe or perhaps even 400p - a P/E of 18 would get to this kind of number and it is not impossible as MCS is a very well respected growth business. Had been looking for pullback but they keep going up - so decided to bite the bullet. If they drop now, I will buy more. Class Act in Retirement Homes - might benefit from Housebuilder Q1 effect also. I did a Blog on MCS which covered TEP as well a few weeks back.
30/12/2015 Closed (i.e. Sold them) both my Long Spreadbets on the FTSE100 at 6292 - banking a Profit equivalent to about 0.75% of Total Portfolio Value. This was to some extent a Damage Limitation exercise after I had opened my first FTSE100 Long at 6389 back in November and obviously I have taken a loss on this one. The other one I opened at 5947 and this 'Averaging Down' saved my bacon and brought home the Profits. It was nice to play the 'Santa Rally' but next year I must be more patient and leave the bet until much nearer to Xmas. In the event, a 0.75% Profit in the context of aiming for 10% Return per Year (compounded) on my Portfolio is a nice little boost at Year End - although obviously it could have been better. According to the Stockmarket Almanac (and bitter experience !!) the first week of January is the worst week of the year and is nearly always down - this seems a good reason to close out my Santa Rally trade.
24/12/2015 Bought a Long Spreadbet on Quantum Pharma QP. at 105p equivalent to about 1% of my Portfolio Value. This is simply 'mirroring' of the Normal Shares trade I did below.
24/12/2015 Bought Quantum Pharma QP. Shares at 105p worth about 1% of my Portfolio Value. I have been stalking this one for weeks and weeks and finally it has escaped the Downtrend Channel and I think it might start to make good upward progress now - at worst, it may go Sideways for a bit but the drop should be over. I would like to buy more if it makes good progress and gives me a decent Buy Signal at an appropriate point in time (i.e. when I have some cash !!!). QP. is a specialist niche Pharma Company that makes mainly bespoke Drugs and it has thousands of such products - it reminds me a lot of my frustrating old buddy Alliance Pharma APH but has vastly more Products on its shelves. It floated in late 2014 and shot up to 175p ish in June this year but since then it has suffered the usual Post-IPO malaise and been in a horrible Downtrend Channel - as per the blog I wrote recently 'A horrible Chart, featuring QP.' The Stock at my Buy Price of 105p trades on a Forward P/E of about 10 and has a Forward Divvy Yield of 1.7%. Note, Robbie Burns (www.nakedtrader.co.uk) recently bought back into this Stock and a large Institutional Investor has been buying. I see this getting to about 150p in time and I suspect the previous high of 175p could be visited again with patience........
24/12/2015 Sold Cello CLL Shares at 86p to free up Cash to buy QP. Nothing particularly awful about CLL but I only had a silly little position and I couldn't do anything with it. In other words, I cannot buy more as the Chart is nothing special and because they have a VAT Payment issue which is a negative overhang that will probably drag on them for some time. I had some CLL I bought 5 years ago at 50p and some I bought a couple of years ago at 62p - overall I guess I made around 50% Profit and picked up the Dividends - nothing special but a big shame I cannot buy more and utilise the Position better. I always thought CLL could do well with the Health bit in the US but the VAT issue just whacked them down. I am pleased that I have stuck to the 'One In, One Out' policy and I have treated this very much like a 'Beauty Contest' and decided that QP. was the saucy babe here (apologies to all Female Readers who I have now offended in their droves).....
14/12/2015 Bought another Long Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 5947 of same size as existing one - so about 18% of Total Portfolio Exposure. Good signs that we will get a rebound - Hammer Candles tonight on US Markets and Overbought/Oversold Indicator extremely low. RSI 31 which is level it tends to rebound from. Brent Oil also did a Hammer Candle and RSI 27 extreme low - a bounce in Oil obviously good for FTSE100. My other Long FTSE100 has been causing me much misery as I got it totally wrong, hopefully with this new Position and perhaps a bit of a bounce I can get myself out of trouble !!
1/12/2015 Bought GFRD (Galliford Try) Shares at 1469p equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Exposure. I want to play Housebuilders for Q1 when they tend to go well and the recent pullback gives a good entry point. Looks to be turning up and gives exposure to Houses and General Construction. Forward P/E under 10 and 5% divvy which should rise nicely. I did a Blog on this.
1/12/2015 Bought a Long Spreadbet on GFRD at 1462p equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Exposure. Now got 3% in them.
26/11/2015 Bought a Long Spreadbet on the FTSE100 at 6389 equivalent to about 20% of my Trading ISA and Long Spreadbet Exposure - so in effect I am now 120% Long. I posted a Blog about this on 29/11/2015 and in essence I want to take advantage of December's historic strength and the Index has given some bullish technical signals.
25/11/2015 Sold INFI Shares and Spreadbets at about 183p. Takeover deal looks settled and no sign of other bids so no point waiting around as Markets could be about to jump on Santa's Sleigh and I want my firepower fully exploited. Taken a hit of about 15% on Exposure Value which is really annoying as there is clearly value here. I bought for the Income as a Divvy of 6% ish but Government reduced subsidies on Wind Energy and INFI suffered. Lesson here is to avoid Stocks which are dependent upon Government Cash for their survival. Leverage effect of Spreadbet means a hit of around 150% on Capital which is how it works. Sometimes you just have to accept that things will go wrong and losses are inevitable - all part of the Game and it is overall Returns on Portfolio that matter not the individual Trades that make it up.
16/11/2015 Bought more SBRY shares at 242p for my Income Portfolio - now about 10% of that Portfolio. Forward Divvy around 4.7% and trading in a nice Range. Long term hold and I expect Divvy to slowly rise - nice diversifier for my Income Portfolio. See Blog dated 17th November 2015.
6/11/2015 Bought MCS McCarthy & Stone new IPO at 206p via a Spreadbet. Started Conditional Dealings today so may be hard to get normal shares. Dominant Retirement Homes provider and a great Housebuilder niche. Made £80m Pretax Profit last year and Market Cap over £1bn so P/E around 18 but this is Long Term Hold Quality. If drops I will buy more - just small 1% Starter Position. Blog done on this 8/11/2015.
6/11/2015 Bought more TEP at 1091p via a Spreadbet equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio. Big Position for me. Chart looks to be turning up and Results due 24th November. 4% Divvy and fwd p/e around 18 so not cheap. Did a Blog on 8/11/2015 about my TEP topup. Some rumours over Accounts but beginning to think all Shares have this !! Pays me a big divvy so can't be much wrong. Target 1500p perhaps during next year.
30/10/2015 Bought more TTR via a Spreadbet at 96p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio Value. Now must have near 3% or 4% of them and I expect big gains here - looking for minimum 140p. The Stock brokeout from 90p level this week and there is not much to hold it back. Looks very undervalued on Forward P/E of 8.5 if you strip out the Cash Pile and this cash gives it a Margin of Safety and strategic options - i.e. it could do some acquisitions. Pays Divvy over 3% on top.
29/10/2015 Closed (bought back) FTSE100 Short Spreadbet at 6388 for a tiny loss. Markets have an underlying strength I think and I don't want to be dragging a Short Hedge into November and December which are historically the strongest time of the year. I am now 100% Long and ready for the Bull Run !! OK, if I am totally wrong, I can whack some Shorts on again fast.
29/10/2015 Bought more ESP via a Spreadbet at 110p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio value. Since recent Buys it just seems to slowly inch up and I like this steady progression. Now must have about 3% of Portfolio in them. I did Blog on this recently.
29/10/2015 Bought more AV. via a Spreadbet at 490p equivalent to about 1.5% of Portfolio Value. Now got about 4% in AV. Stock looks cheap on forward P/E under 10 and 4% Divvy Yield. Mark Wilson the Newish CEO is doing a superb Turnaround job and manages down expectations very well. I decided to buy night before as usual and got total shock when they did Trading Update at 7am. As it happens it was a strong Update so I decided to buy the Spreadbet. I see no reason why this could not get to around 700p with patience.
23/10/2015 Bought another Spreadbet on ARM at 1051p equivalent to about 1.5% of Normal Shares. Now got about 5% of my Total Portfolio Exposure in ARM - big hopes here and a Long Term Hold. Trading on a Forward P/E of 20 ex-Cash for 2017 is very cheap by ARM's historical Standards. The Economic Moat here is unbeatable and the Internet of Things means demand for ARM Chip Designs will grow rapidly.
23/10/2015 Bought ARM Shares at 1049p to add to my Spreadbet. Around 2% of Portfolio Value. Recent Trading Update was superb and Price broke out of Sideways Trading Range - there is a Blog on this explaining why I see this as a superb Long Term Hold.
22/10/2015 Closed (bought back) FTSE100 Spreadbet equivalent to about 15% of Portfolio Value. Took a tiny loss of about 0.07% of Portfolio Value which is the cost of insurance in effect. Still got 30% Hedged via FTSE100 Short Spreadbets but Markets feel a bit more buoyant so less need for insurance against Downside Risk. If Markets get ropey again I can easily add more Shorts. I will let remaining bit run as obviously my Longs will offset any Short Term hit on the Shorts - huge overhead Resistance on all Major Indexes.
16/10/2015 Bought more TCM at 283p around 1% of Portfolio Value. Now got about 4% in them. Fell on recent Profit Warning but growth still strong and pretty much only way to play Internet of Things IoT. I see this as very likely to get taken over by US Tech Giant but even without this I expect the Stock to be around 400p within a year or so. I wrote a Blog on this Stock about a year ago but most of it is still valid but of course the Numbers will need tweaking.
14/10/2015 Sold ALK in the Market at 35.5p following an announcement that the Deal was pretty much done. I see no point in waiting around as I have Stocks I want to buy and the Cash might be useful. Sadly I lost 20% on this which is very annoying. Following a Trading Update I was considering buying more and Averaging Down but the Takeover Bid beat me to the punch. This kind of thing will happen, no point dwelling on it - I just need to act swifter in such circumstances. On the plus side, at least it gets rid of one more stock and gets me nearer the WD40.
13/10/2015 Bought more TSTL via a Spreadbet at 125p following a superb Trading Update. Equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Exposure. I expect a lot more upside and minimum Target 150p - please see my Blog under Stock Buy Rationale.
13/10/2015 Bought more ESP via a Spreadbet at 109p equivalent to about 1% of Total Portfolio Value. Please see Blog covering the Buy Rationale.
12/10/2015 Shorted FTSE100 more via a Spreadbet at 6382 - about half the size of the one above and Hedges about 15% of my Long Exposure. Now got about 45% Hedged. Market seems to be swinging down from the Inverted Hammer from 7/10/2015.
7/10/2015 Shorted FTSE100 via a Spreadbet at 6370, with Exposure equal to about 30% of my Long Exposure in total. Inverted Hammer and Overbought on the Overbought/Oversold Indicator. As per my recent 'Hindsight' Blog, I have taken a Trade that the Market offered me although I have not really gone heavy on it.
7/10/2015 Bought ESP Shares in Income Portfolio at 109p - this now accounts for about 10% of the Income Portfolio as I used some Dividend Cash that had piled up also (this is my idea of Reinvestment, not those crazy DRIP schemes that make you buy Stocks when they are high). ESP should pay a Dividend of around 5.4% (rising in future years by at least RPI) and I think there is great Capital Growth potential here also - does Student Housing like UTG and is a bit under the radar I think as it is a relatively recent IPO. Small Premium to NAV at the moment but I expect this to grow - strong Uptrend on chart and I expect to be buying more. Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader, holds ESP. A Blog should appear next week.
7/10/2015 Sold BOK Shares from Income Portfolio at 182p. Held for about a year and banked 45% Profit and probably another 5% in dividends. Great business but just looks overvalued as per a Blog I wrote on it. Wanted to buy ESP so space had to be made.
10/10/2015 Sold NG. Spreadbet at 928p. Looks toppy in the Short Term with a Hammer Candle yesterday and RSI at 70. Still will keep Core Holding of normal Shares in my Income Portfolio but will be looking to buy a Spreadbet again if the opportunity arises. Banked about 10% Profit on the Exposure which is about 200% on the Capital used as Margin Deposit - in fact the gain might be a little higher as there was probably a Divvy Payment. Think I have held around 2 months ish so a nice quick and low risk gain.

1/10/2015 Sold QED Shares at 140.78p in the Market. Takeover Deal is complete and I don't want to wait around for the 141p a share Deal - these things can take months. Danger that if you don't give 'Corporate Action' instruction to your Broker, you could end up having your Shares sent to you in Certificated form and you will not be able to sell. Made about 45% Profit in maybe a year so quite happy. Still got Spreadbet but IGindex tell me it will automatically Close in a short while - not held these long.
1/10/2015 Bought more BA. via a Spreadbet at 453p equivalent to about 1.25% of Total Portfolio Value. Hold in Income Portfolio as normal Shares. Chart looks nice - see my Blog.
24/08/2015 Closed all remaining Spreadbet Shorts at 5829.7. Now got no hedging which is risky but the move down recently is extreme and RSI readings of 24 and suchlike on FTSE100 and US Indexes is an extreme low point. Hammer candles although not perfect in the US after Close today and big volumes - looks like a classic capitulation to me. Banked 2.6% of Portfolio Exposure in Profit which is a lovely Bonus - Hedging is for Downside Protection not for making gains per se. All TV News Programmes leading with 'Stockmarket Crash' and usually this is a brilliant Buy Signal. If I am too early, I can easily whack new Hedging on if I need to. Hopefully we can rally a bit and I can then Hedge again at around 6400 maybe. I expect a Choppy Summer ahead. Worth reading my Blog from last night (Sunday 23rd Aug 'Phew what a Week, what now for the Markets?')
18/08/2015 Bought ARM via a Spreadbet at 927.4p as a Starter Position around 1.5% of Total Portfolio Exposure - intend to build a Big Stake over time, maybe 4% ish. Superb value on a forward ex cash P/E of 23 (usually trades on a P/E of 40 or more !!). Rare outstanding UK Chip Design business with incredible Economic Moat and great play on Tech Mega Themes like IOT, Fones, Tablets, 3D Printing, Connected Cars etc. See Buy Rationale Blog for more depth.
11/08/2015 Bought more BOO via a Spreadbet at 29.32p worth about 1% of Total Portfolio Exposure. Now got around 2.5% of the Portfolio in BOO and will probably add more over time. See the Buy Rationale Blog I did on it for more depth.
4/08/2015 Bought more IOM via a Spreadbet at 248p, worth around 0.75% of Total Portfolio Exposure. Chart looks ready to move up and has Results in September I reckon. Expect a Takeover Bid north of 300p - Robbie Burns reckons 350p - I did a Blog on this a while back. I now have maybe 3% in them.
3/08/2015 Bought more BA. via a Spreadbet at 482p worth about 1% of Total Portfolio Exposure - now got around 3% in them. Did recent Blog, Fundamentals look good an chart turning up.
3/08/2015 Bought more NG. via a Spreadbet at 853p worth about 1.25% of Total Portfolio Exposure - not got maybe 3.5% in them - really an Income Portfolio Stock but looks like opportunity to play a Range Trade.
29/07/2015 Sold APF EMED AUE POL and a daft little LON position that I got because it was spun out of GLEN recently. This was essentially a Stable Hosing exercise to get the crud out of my Portfolios. As per a Blog I did a while back, I think Small Resource Stocks are utterly Toxic and in the years I have held this Junk it has all just gone down and down with no sign of every finding a floor - I fully expect most of them to go to Zero and the only half decent one is APF - but I didn't have much of a Position and I can't see it going anywhere while Commodities Prices are just going one way (and it's not Upwards !!). This whole experience has been a very expensive lesson and I have lost about 80% of the Cash I put into them. Woeful. Part of the clean out is because I want to get my Main ISA Stocks down to 40 - the 'WD40' (it has a ring to it). The clear Lesson for all of us is don't get sucked in by this cr*p - buy Quality Companies that actually Sell things and make Profits (what a strange concept).
29/07/2015 IGG bought more Shares at 743p - worth about 2% of Total Portfolio Value - now got around 3.5% in total as I hold in my Income Portfolio as well. Great Long Term Buy and Hold with 4% ish divvy as per the Blog I have done on this.
29/07/2015 AGA sold at 183p, both Spreadbet (182p) and Shares - looks like the Takeover is a 'done deal' and I want to move on and use the Cash for IGG. I rarely wait for the Takeover to go through - I can use the Cash and there is a Risk the deal can fall through if you wait. Made about 30% on the Shares and 40% on the Spreadbet Exposure - obviously on the Capital Employed it was more like 200% ish. Slight irritation with myself that I was a bit light on this really - I should have gone for a larger Spreadbet. It happens.
28/07/2015 Closed a FTSE100 Spreadbet at 6577.3 worth about 5% of my Total Portfolio Value. Still got around 20% Short. Looks like Market can rally a bit in the short term - I suspect at best this will just be lining up a big fall in Sept/Oct which happens pretty much every year. I broke even on this Spreadbet, which is of course fairly pain-free and Hedging is all about Protecting the Portfolio, not about making Profits - but they are a bonus if they come.
27/07/2015 EMR bought a Long Spreadbet at 87.22p worth about 1% of Total Portfolio Exposure Value. With the profits so far, this is now maybe 5% of Portfolio - so it is a chunky position and I need to be careful now. This Stock has incredible momentum and is still very undervalued despite recent run up - still on a forward p/e of 9 - way too cheap. I am targeting around 120p minimum and possibly 140p. As ever, I will let it run. If you look under 'Stock Buy Rationale' there is a Blog on EMR.
21/07/2015 OPAY bought more Shares in my ISA at 262p - about 1% of Portfolio Exposure Value - now in total got about 4% - so quite a chunk. Seems very undervalued and did Breakout of Downtrend Channel - see my Blog. Looking for at least 400p in time.
17/07/2015 VLK bought more Shares at 57p, about 0.75% of Portfolio Exposure Value - now total about 3%. Stock very undervalued on Forward P/E around 10 for a High Tech Stock. Recent disgust over Director Greed in Incentive Plan has driven Price down - seems good entry point to Topup. I am looking for 80p here in time.
17/07/2015 AA. bought more Shares at 374p, about 1% of Portfolio Exposure Value - now total 4%. Stock just plain undervalued on forward P/E below 10 - I am targeting 550p. I am particularly pleased about the recent Brand Extension moves into Banking stuff. Please see my Blog from 2014 - click the Category 'Stock Buy Rationale' on my Blog page.
10/07/2015 BA. bought more for my Trading ISA at 471p - worth about 1.5% of Total Portfolio. Already got in Income Portfolio but the Chart looks so good and the stock seems cheap so I decided to Push the Position. Considering Small Spreadbet but waiting for the Greeks !! (see 'Buy Rationale' Blog).
9/07/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbets closed 2 at 6625.1 and 6621.6 - equivalent to about 10% of my Long Exposure, so Hedging reduced to about 35%. Locked in Profit worth about 0.4% of Portfolio Exposure but Hedging is not really about making Profits - it's about Protecting Capital. Against my judgement, it looks like EU and Greece may do a Deal, and the Charts look very bullish for the FTSE100 and Europe. Happy to let remaining Shorts run over summer if necessary.
5/07/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbet opened at 6411.1 worth about 10% of my Long Exposure via Stocks. Now got about 45% Hedged. I put this on late on Sunday Night after the Greek 'No' Vote - Grexit looks like it's going to happen and I want to be Protected against potentially big Downside Risk.
2/07/2015 BA. bought at 453.6p in my Income Portfolio. Near 5% Dividend Yield and Price fallen a lot in recent Selloff. I think there is a strong likelihood that Defence Spending Cuts in UK and US will end and it is possible Spending will rise, as the West faces up to the problems in the Middle East. Position represents about 7% of Income Portfolio. See my Blog page for a 'Buy Rationale'.
2/07/2015 XUKS FTSE100 Short ETF sold at 541p in my Main ISA Portfolio - banked a tiny Profit. I want Hedges in case of Greek problems with the Referendum on Sunday 5th July but the Charts are telling me this is the time to buy. I need protection in my Leveraged Spreadbet Portfolio so keeping those FTSE100 Shorts in place (want to avoid 'Margin Calls'), but less of an issue in my Unleveraged ISA. Selling XUKS boosts my Cash so this also acts as a partial Hedge. Cash position total around 5% now.
28/06/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbets opened at 6554.2 and 6563.6 to Hedge out Greek Downside Risk - equivalent to about 15% of Long Exposure - now in total I have around 35% of my Long Exposure Hedged by Short FTSE100 Positions.
23/06/2015 GSK bought Long Spreadbet at 1374.4p worth about 1.25% of my Total Portfolio. Playing the same trade as the above one in my Income Portfolio - but will most likely only play this Short-Term. GSK seems to be 'Range Trading' again - so when it gets up near the top, I will dump this position. But I will keep the Income Portfolio Shares as these are Long Term low maintenance.
23/06/2015 GSK bought more Shares at 1375p for my Income Portfolio (see directly below) worth about 7% of the Income Portfolio - now got about 15% of Income Portfolio in GSK. Attracted to the 6% Divvy and I think it can be sustained as I hear there is a big Restructuring going on in the company.
23/06/2015 AV. bought Long Spreadbet at 521.5p equivalent to about 1.5% of Total Portfolio - now got about 3.5% of Portfolio in them. Superb Turnaround Story with Mark Wilson the New CEO doing an amazing job of sorting the mess out. Forward p/e around 10 and 4% Divvy yield.
23/06/2015 TTR bought more Shares at 61p worth about 1% of Portfolio Value. Now got about 3% of Portfolio in them. 4% Divvy yield and p/e forward around 8. Looks very cheap - see my Blog on them.
23/06/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbet another tiny one closed for a small Loss. Now halved all my Spreadbet Shorts but still have a XUKS ETF which is an Inverse FTSE100 instrument.
22/06/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbets 2 tiny ones closed (i.e. I bought them back) at 6802.5 for a small Profit and 6805.8 for a miniscule Loss. Still have huge Short Position but Greek Deal looks possible so taking a bit off the table so I am more biased to the Long side. Monitoring situation closely and the Charts and may take more action in coming days. Getting keen to buy some more GSK for my Income Portfolio. I won't do a Blog on this - it is sort of obvious why I closed.
17/06/2015 NG. Topup Buy of Shares at 858p in my Income Portfolio - about 1% of Total Portfolio Exposure and now around 2.5% in Total. I won't do a Buy Rationale Blog on this one as it's pretty much the same as the Blog I wrote for NG. Buy dated 16th March 2015. Big driver here is the 5% Dividend Yield.
3/06/2015 AVAP Topup Buy of Shares at 147p, about 0.5% of Portfolio Exposure - now got 2% in them. Reasonably Risky but seems super cheap on Forward p/e just below 6. Fast Growth planned and has funding capacity to do it. Recent big Director Buys, Chart Breakout from Triangle Pattern - see my Blog from 3/6/2015.
3/06/2015 COST sold all holding at 339p. Profit of 25% in under 2 years and good Divvys also. Forward p/e 15 is high for Cyclical Low Margin Construction business and Chart Toppy Short Term. Great Company but seems good time to sell and move on. Big Chart Resistance at 360p.
1/06/2015 RDSB Topup Buy for Income Portfolio at 1954.9p. Big Divvy of 6.3% at my Buy Price for Next Year and company has amazing record of never cutting Divvy since WW2 !! I put in about a 6th of my ISA Allowance for this Year and will be looking to buy more stuff for Income Portfolio in coming months. Now probably my Largest overall Holding.
29/05/2015 SIV Topup Buy via Spreadbet at 189.47p worth equivalent of about 1% of Total Portfolio Long Exposure - now got about 3% of Portfolio in them. Downtrend Breakout, fwd p/e 9, 4% Divvy. Strategic Shift to Digital Marketing from Printing.
26/05/2015 AZN Topup Buy via a Spreadbet at 4415.9p worth equivalent of about 2% of my Overall Portfolio Exposure. Already hold in Income Portfolio with Target around 4900p. Now have about 3.5% of my Overall Exposure in AZN.
14/05/2015 QED top up at 101.5p via a Spreadbet equivalent to about 1% of my Total Portfolio Exposure Value. Now got around 3.5% in them. Bought after Breakout over 100p and in advance of results 22nd May. Discount to NAV 10% ish and around 20% to Forward NAV. Discounts unusual in this Sector now.
12/05/2015 RCDO sold 2/3 of Spreadbet Exposure at 856.8p. Banked 23% Profit on Exposure and 230% on Capital used as Deposit. Had for about 1 year - now got small position of around 0.5% of Total Portfolio Value. Will look to buy in again in Summer Lulls if they happen this year.
5/05/2015 EMR bought yet more at 67.35p after Breakout of the Flag Pattern - see recent Blogs. Added around another 1% of Portfolio Value and now have about 3% in it - quite high for AIM Stock but it seems very cheap and has Momentum.
28/04/2015 APH sold all Shares at 43p - made 20% but held some for 6 years and top up couple years back. Had good Divvys but frustrating Stock - I think Market under appreciates due to debt. Was only 1% of Portfolio.
16/04/2015 EMR top up at 64p in shares on strong move up. Market still not rewarding improvements here with debt down and back in growth mode. P/e 7 ish very cheap - target 100p + About 2.5% portfolio.
15/04/2015 IOM top up at 215p in Shares after breakout of range. Expect Cinven Bid around 300p. Now about 3.5% Total Portfolio Exposure.
30/03/2015 UTW top up with spreadbet at 213.28p equivalent to about 1% of Portfolio value. Total now around 3%. Looks very undervalued and target 450p in time.
27/03/2015 UTW bought top up at 205.75p. About 0.75 Portfolio value - total now 2% ish. Charts looks turning up. Forward p/e 8, divvy 4%...target 370p couple years. Results 21 April - I expect run up before. Recent big CEO buy.
23/03/2015 TSTL bought at 73p to top up. Now about 2.5% of Portfolio value. Superb results recently and bit of pullback so seems good entry point. Company got real momentum and upgrades likely. 3% divvy next year I think.
23/03/2015 SAL sold at 53p for big loss about 70%. Awful Results and Directors seem to have no idea how to grow. Annoying but my mistake was buying Micro cap in first place.
17/03/2015 TCM topup Buy at 232.1p. Results 23rd March, fair chance it can run up before. Buy Rationale WheelieBlog done previously in October 2014. Now about 2% of Total Portfolio.
12/03/2015 NG. bought at 855p for Income Portfolio. Political Risk but 5% divvy. Long Term Hold.
9/03/2015 BRIT sold all Positions - Shares at 304.18p and Spreadbets at 303.2p. Takeover looks a 'done deal' and I don't want risk of it falling through. Banked around 23% profit in 6 months I guess. Divvys on top and Spreadbet return will be high due to Leverage.
9/03/2015 CRST sold all of remaining Position - Shares (at 427.2p) and Spreadbets (at 425.8p). Banked 48% profit and probably had divvys on top. Held around 2 years. Actual Spreadbet return probably near 400% on Capital Employed. Reasons as per Blog in 'Buy Rationale' category.
4/03/2015 Opened another small Short Spreadbet on FTSE100 at 6871.8 just to increase Hedging a little - now 40% Hedged and that is plenty.
4/03/2015 CRST Sold half my Normal Shares in my ISA at 433.87p - banked about 50% in couple of years plus Dividends. Rationale as per recent Blog.
26/02/2015 CRST topsliced about 1/5 of my Holding by Selling a Spreadbet Position at 440p. Banked about 62% Profit on Exposure (there were Divvys on top also) in about 2 years. Probably about 400% on the Capital used due to Gearing.
24/02/2015 Bought XUKS - DB X-Trackers Short FTSE100 ETF at 529.81p in my ISA. Now about 35% Short Hedged - expecting big fall in markets soon - they are way too Toppy and people complacent. It's too easy to make money on the Long tack.
16/02/2015 TCY Shares and Spreadbets all sold. Held for various time periods, 3 years to 1 year - total Profit 64% - gearing effect on Capital a big help with Spreadbets. Had other positions which were closed in that time all for a profit.
29/01/2015 AXS Accsys Tech bought at 58.84p. Tiny 'Pilot' position to build on. Very High Risk - expect to Hold for years.
28/01/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbet Opened at 6777.5 to Hedge Long Exposure even more - equivalent to about 7% of Total Portfolio Exposure. Now 30% Hedged - that is probably enough to give a little Downside Protection. Markets weak.
27/01/2015 EZJ Sold Shares and Spreadbets around 1830p. Made about 40% profit in 5 months. Bought in 3 chunks at 1280p and 1350p ish.
26/01/2015 IGG Topsliced at 739.02p. Sold all ISA holding but keeping Income Portfolio bit. Great company longer term but Overbought Short Term and I want cash for some Buys. Generally nervous on Markets. May look to buy in again in future. Banked about 20% profit over 6 months ish.
25/01/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbet Opened at 6763.5 to Hedge Long Exposure even more - equivalent to about 8% of Total Portfolio Exposure. Now 23% Hedged - that is probably enough to give a little Downside Protection.
22/01/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbet Opened at 6779.8 to Hedge Long Exposure a bit more - equivalent to about 5% of my Total Portfolio Exposure. I am now 15% Hedged. I expect to add a little more in time.
21/01/2015 FTSE100 Short Spreadbet Opened at 6721.6 to Hedge Long Exposure a bit - equivalent to about 10% of my Total Portfolio Exposure.
21/01/2015 AV. Topsliced all my Spreadbet Positions - Profit of about 20% on Exposure - 0.5% on Total Portfolio Value.
23/12/2014 EBAY Topsliced about Half of my Spreadbet Position - 10% Profit on the Exposure. Still a great stock.
23/12/2014 PLUS Sold all Spreadbets at 565p, Profit of about 13% in total on Exposure.
19/12/2014 AV. Topup buy via Spreadbet at 487.47p worth about 1% of Portfolio Value - total now about 3% of Portfolio.
18/12/2014 RDSB Topup buy via Spreadbet at 2150p worth about 1% of Portfolio Value - total now about 4% of Portfolio.
17/12/2014 FTSE100 Short closed at 6369. Closed all remaining Shorts - now Net Long. Loss of about 0.5% of Portfolio Value - annoying but got me out of very uncomfortable situation after error in placing shorts back in October. (see Blogs).
16/12/2014 FTSE100 Short closed at 6323.8. Halved my Short Position - tiny profit but got me out of a Problem.
3/12/2014 TEP Telecom Plus buy at 1218.28p in Income Portfolio, about 1% Long Exposure, now 4% of Total Portfolio.
26/11/2014 FTSE100 Short opened at 6737.4 via spreadbet, equivalent to about 5% of Long Exposure.
25/11/2014 CAMB Topup buy Normal Shares at 48.45p worth about 0.5% of Portfolio Value - total now about 2.5% of Portfolio.
20/11/2014 SPRP Topup buy via Spreadbet at 322.71p worth about 0.75% of Portfolio Value - total now about 3.5% of Portfolio.
12/11/2014 OPAY Topup buy via Spreadbet at 428.57p worth about 0.5% of Total Portfolio Value.
11/11/2014 OPAY topup at 419.78p of about 0.5% of Portfolio value - gives total about 1% - probably need to add more in time.
30/10/2014 AA. Top up buy via Spread bet at 330.83p total value 3% Portfolio. Target 500p.
28/10/2014 PETS topup buy at 181.95p via spreadbet, keying error bought 0.1% equivalent of Long Exposure, meant to buy 1%. Means will need to buy 0.9% more ideally, need patience, target 250p. I am a muppet.
22/10/2014 TCM Telit topup bought at 230p, approx 1.5% of Portfolio in total, target 450p with patience.
16/10/2014 FTSE100 2 Shorts opened at 6087.7 and 6099.5, equivalent to about 15% of Long Exposure.
15/10/2014 FTSE100 Short opened at 6193.4 via spreadbet, equivalent to about 15% of Long Exposure.