Wheelie’s New Year Message
This was supposed to be ‘Wheelie’s Xmas Message’ but in the event the recent Blog on NG. seemed to nuzzle its way to the top of the stack and got my attention. Blog scribbling often goes like this for me; it is rare that I detest a Blog (it does happen !!) and lose any enthusiasm to work on it but it is most definitely the case that certain partly-formed Blogs can find their way up the list as my Brain gets much more fixated and stimulated by the prospect of doing them.
At a high level this is really just a “Thank you” for all the support from WD Readers, Followers, Believers, Promoters etc. but as with other Blogs I have written around this time of year, it should give some outline on how I see the Website and stuff developing in the coming year, as well as giving some thoughts on how I am feeling about 2016 and what I expect for 2017 - although these later points should get a lot more in-depth consideration in a forthcoming ‘Scores on the Doors 2016’ Blog which is probably the next in line.
This shouldn’t be too lengthy. Back on Tuesday 20th December 2016 I bought more NG. via a Spreadbet at 937p. This Blog should just outline why I moved when I did and point out the superb Divvy situation going on here. I won’t spend time explaining what NG. is - I am sure most Readers will be pretty clued up on them anyway - it is not really a complex business to understand. Anyway, I wrote a Blog on them a while back which you can find here which might give some background (there is a great link to a piece by Jamie at Compound Income as well - he‘s always worth reading):
Santa’s Rallying Cry
I see the magical words “Santa Rally” bandied around all the time and I thought it might be useful for Readers to summarise the info on this from the 'UK Stockmarket Almanac 2016’ so we get a clearer understanding of what it really means (you can buy the Almanac for 2017 from Wheelie‘s Bookshop but I note it is quite expensive at the moment - I am delaying buying a copy until into 2017 when the price usually drops. Once a Value Investor, always a Value Investor…..). I am sure majority opinion thinks of it as a December Rally but this is really not true at all. I had intended to include a bit on this in my Blog from last night regarding the Charts but by the time I had watched the Apprentice Final I had pretty much timed out.
A Tough Year but I’m not getting Stressed - A look at Indexes, Oil, Gold & the Quid
Baba O’Reilly, I just realised it is precisely and accurately 1 solitary week to Xmas - crazy how that has crept up so fast this year and we are now on the final run-in to close out 2016 (I hope fans of The Who loved that start !!. Talking of which, I watched the Hyde Park gig from 2015 on Sky Arts Friday night and got to admit they were really on song [Pure & Easy] - I saw some 2016 stuff and felt that Roger was starting to show his age so I suspect that Hyde Park one is probably the last great gig they will do - worth watching if you can, probably on DVD or something.)
I have not really liked 2016 much from a Market point of view - of course it is most likely because I screwed up terribly on my Hedging Strategy and this has meant I will make a Loss for this year and that sucks. I have felt all year I have been unable to make progress as the Shorts have wiped out any gains from my Longs but in addition I have been hit by more Profit Warnings and Swans of the Noir variety than I ever thought possible. Despite all that, I am actually really looking forward to 2017 with quite a hunger - the tragedy with my Shorting has forced me to confront a clear flaw with my Approach and I reckon that my Fixes (basically careful Entries, Tight Stoplosses and Smaller Position Sizes) will enable me to make money whatever the Markets throw at me (check out my Blog from 23rd November 2016 ‘Final Word on my Hedging Fiasco (hopefully) - Some New Rules‘).
The sharp-eyed among Readers may have spotted I bought more GlaxoSmithkline GSK this morning via a Spreadbet at 1488p adding to a Position I already hold in my Income Portfolio as normal Shares. My intention at the moment is that if the Buy goes ok, I will probably close out the Spreadbet once I am happy with any gain and I feel that it is likely to drop but I will give it time and I will keep the Shares in the Income Portfolio.
This won’t be a long blog, I just want to point out the Triggers that made me decide to buy more GSK - I have been watching this drop for Weeks and I have been looking for decent Technical Signals that it is time to make a move on them.
I’m feeling in a detached mood tonight and not sure how long this Blog will be or what it might contain. Most Readers will probably be aware that my Dad has been in Hospital for many weeks and has been fighting Prostate Cancer which has been spreading so obviously the clock was ticking.
As it happens he passed away last night which was sort of ironic because he had been desperate to return home and there had been all sorts of delays around getting carers to come in and tend to him. He finally got his wish and went home on Friday and I rang my brother Saturday night to find out how the move had gone and that was when I heard the news.
**WHILST UPLOADING THIS I HEAR RENZI HAS RESIGNED**
Thankfully Austria has managed to avoid electing a President from a party started by a former Nazi, but the focus now shifts to Italy and from what I am hearing on TV News, the result should come out in the early morning and by the time the Markets open on Monday 5th Dec, the result will be known.
If the vote is ‘No’ then Mateo Renzi will most likely resign as Prime Minister of Italy - although of course he could do the usual Politician’s trick of reneging on his words and staying on anyway. In addition, even if he resigns, it is very possible that the President will ask him to carry on anyway. If Renzi goes, then a Technocratic Government should be formed and they have until February 2018 to call a General Election - that’s when the fun would really start if Bepe Grillo’s Comedy Party wins and starts to move Italy out of the Eurozone.
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