I am totally on a roll tonight and the words are just flowing forth from the Wheelie Fountain - and I haven’t even been near the Old Speckled Chicken !!
I just wrote a really good first draft of the blog about ‘Is it possible to be too Cautious’ (which should appear on the Website in coming weeks) and when I looked at the clock it was still only 11pm and I had bashed that one out in a little over an hour - so I decided that I might as well crack on with this one because it is another Blog that has been on my brain for some time and while I am spewing out words like this I might as well take advantage of it !!
I remember after doing one of the early Podcasts with Justin, the question arose about “how do you manage so many Stocks?” - I can’t actually remember if Justin asked me this or whether it came about from a Reader/Follower afterwards but that doesn’t matter - the point is that I don’t think I have ever actually got around to answering it and this Blog hopefully will put that major deficiency to rights. On top of that, it actually fits in a treat with some Draft Blogs I am working on about ‘Cutting out Noise’ and my original intention was to include it as a Part of that Blog Series but then I decided it was so important that it deserves its own Blog. So here it is…….
As always, I am running behind, this time due to the MotoGP getting delayed by rain in the Qatar Desert (yes, how nuts is that?) so I will try and whizz through this one and get into the Charts quickly. Before I do that, with the Clocks changing in the UK it means that the US Markets are now back to what we normally expect with them opening at 2.30pm UK time and closing at 9pm UK time.
Something that has been taking my attention lately has been the strength of Economies the world over - and I noticed in Investors Chronicle this weekend that we are due a fair bit of Economic Data from Europe and the US in particular and this will be worth keeping an eye on to see if we get more evidence of a pretty buoyant backdrop for Stocks. It is also worth noting how the UK had some really strong Retail Sales numbers last week and nobody saw this coming.
Kindly Phil has written another P2P related Blog for us and again it includes some links to Special Deals where you can get a Discount and Phil and myself get a small slice as well. Please note these can be High Risk Investments and if in doubt you should consult with a qualified Financial Advisor - we make no recommendation with regards to suitability for you and we are not qualified or FCA regulated. If this is new to you then make sure you read Phil’s previous Guest Blog and you will find within that one some Lower Risk P2P Investments like Zopa and Ratesetter.
In my first article for Wheelie’s Website last month I wrote about the 'how's and ‘why's' of P2P (Peer to Peer), and if you're unfamiliar with the area it might be worth you reading my first article, paying particular attention to the risks involved:
Yet again Major Indexes have been making new highs - it seems like they are unstoppable but of course that is never the case and at some point we will get a Correction. As ever, my task with these Chart Blogs is to try and get a sense of where we are and how close a Correction is - I suspect before getting into the Charts that there is little sign of significant bearishness. The Bulls are Running………
As usual, I will kick off with the ‘Big Picture’ and here is the Long Term Chart from the 2009 Low Point. As you should be able to see, the current Price (where my Blue Arrow is) is pretty much at an All Time High again and obviously this in itself is very bullish behaviour. In addition, we are nicely back inside the Uptrend Channel defined by my Red Parallel Lines (pointed at with the huge Red Arrow) and this is really helpful for Bulls because it also means we have good Support Areas established not far below which I will probably look at closer on the next Chart where we will drill in a bit. As ever, all Charts are from ShareScope which I cannot praise enough.
If you have not read Part 1 of this Blog Series yet then it probably would be best to start there. You should find it at this link here:
Another one in the programme was similar to something in the Kahneman book. Some researcher somewhere analysed the outcomes of Parole Board Hearings in the US over a long time series while controlling for certain factors such as Race, Gender, Age, etc. The finding was that Prisoners who went up to the Parole Board before Lunch were far more likely to fail in their request than those applying just after Lunch. The explanation for this seems to be that when the Parole Judge is hungry and tired they tend to be less generous than after Lunch when they have been fed and watered.
From a macro perspective the coming week is pretty darned busy - although I doubt any of it will have much impact unless there are surprises and probably the Dutch Election on Wednesday is the only event where something surprising can happen - but even here the only likely surprise is that Geert Wilders doesn’t get much of a vote and that would be a positive for Europe if anything. From what I have heard, the most likely outcome is that Wilders wins the Vote but he won’t be able to become Prime Minister because he will not have a Majority as other Parties will not join up with him.
On the same day the US Federal Reserve is due to hike Interest Rates by 0.25% - I can’t see this being a surprise and the Markets have most likely priced this in and will take it in their stride. Paradoxically, if Rates aren’t hiked, it might actually cause trouble because the Fed is only likely to do that if they see problems that the Market is not aware of. This is really unlikely. Chris Dillow in the Investors Chronicle this week (page 16) wrote quite a bit about how Rate Rises in the US could impact Stockmarkets and the £/$ rate. On Stocks he says:
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY. I HAVE A VERY LARGE PORTFOLIO AND I USE DIVERSIFICATION TO SPREAD RISK ALONG WITH TRICKS LIKE HEDGING AND OCCASIONALLY BY THE USE OF STOPLOSSES - IF YOU BUY ANY STOCK YOU REALLY SHOULD FOCUS ON HOW IT FITS IN YOUR PORTFOLIO AND KEEP RISK MANAGEMENT AT THE FOREFRONT OF EVERYTHING YOU DO. BE AWARE THAT ALL INVESTORS/TRADERS GET THINGS WRONG AND MANY STOCK SELECTIONS WILL WORK OUT BADLY - MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THIS.
Back on the 1st March 2017 I bought a Long Spreadbet on DGOC equivalent to about 2% of my Portfolio Value. This is a recent IPO which listed about 5 weeks back on AIM and I think it is pretty unique and I am very pleased to have been able to pick it up at 64p via a Spreadbet -which is slightly less than the Float Price of 65p.
The standout thing for me at the moment is just how strong these Markets are - last week we had a momentary bit of weakness and then after perhaps a couple of days we were rallying hard again - this is a very dangerous Market to Short.
In the coming week we have Phil Hammond’s Budget on Wednesday, then an ECB Meeting on Thursday and it’s the monthly US Non-Farm Payrolls Numbers on Friday - these are more for the Traders on Friday afternoon than for anything else although they could point to further strength in the US Economy and the Stockmarkets might like that. On an Index wide basis I doubt the Budget will do a lot but for individual Sectors such as Housebuilders (especially), Insurance, Construction, Banks, Gambling, Defence etc. there might be some big moves - again the Traders will be poised over their Buy and Sell Buttons to pounce on any comments Mr Boring will make.
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