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educational blogs |
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China
Here is a quick view of my thoughts on China and why I am not overly concerned by it. China is now the World’s second largest Economy in terms of GDP and as such obviously has a large impact on Global GDP Growth. A Slowdown in China will drag on Global Growth but it will not have the impact that it might have had 4 or 5 years ago when the rest of the World was really in a mess following the Credit Crunch. That situation is very different now, the US and the UK are firing on all cylinders and after a difficult period in recent years, even Europe is starting to perk up.
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Well, I imagine many Readers feel a little Shell-shocked after last week’s battering. It was clearly the worst week we have had this year but to be honest it probably wasn’t as painful as last October when Greece was a huge concern and of course we nearly always get an Autumn Seasonal Sell-off.
My view now is that Markets are looking quite Oversold (as I will show in the Charts below) and even though they might fall a little more, we are due a bounce in the Short Term. How strong that bounce is likely to be and if it can last is of course something we cannot know. However, I have indicated some Technical Scenarios where things could get very bad indeed - so these need to be monitored.
THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITES. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
You may have seen that I picked up a ‘Starter Position’ in ARM Holdings (Epic Code ARM) on Tuesday 18th August at 927.4p via a Spreadbet. I know my timing wasn’t perfect although I don’t think I am miles away from getting them at a good price. I will cover this more in the Charting bit at the bottom of this Blog but my thinking behind this move is that ARM does not get this cheap very often - and I wanted to get a foothold on the Stock from which I can then build a big position. I often find with Great Stocks that unless I actually get my Cash out and buy a Small Stake I sort of forget about them and they drop off the Radar as something else jumps up and down and takes my attention - the ‘Availability Heuristic‘. I suppose this could be fixed by a stricter Watchlist Discipline but it never seems to happen !!
Apart from Friday and Saturday Nights (usually), I tend to look at the Charts of all the Major Indexes that I see as relevant to my Holdings - stuff like FTSE100, FTSE250, FTSE Small Cap, FTSE AIM, DAX, CAC40, DOW, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite, Brent Oil and Gold (to be honest, I look at Gold more out of interest and because it winds the Gold Bugs up when I tell them how pants it is !!). I also look at the Stock Charts of all my Holdings and a few others that I monitor for other people (my Mum for one).
Often on a Sunday Night when I have more time I will do a quick Summary of the Technical Situation of the Indexes and I slam this onto the Homepage of WD2. However, I am aware that it is a bit ‘dry’ without Charts to give real depth and colour to what I am saying - the reason for this is that it takes quite a bit of time to do and especially loading the Charts into the Website. I am aware that many Readers are Amateur Chartists like myself and hopefully the Information I splash out on WD2 and Nightly via Tweets can enable these Readers to interpret their Charts in a meaningful way - or at least they can see my view and disregard it is they think it is bollox.
THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITES. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
You may have noticed that on Monday 10th August I bought more Boohoo.com BOO via a Spreadbet at 29.32p, equivalent in size to about 1% of my Portfolio Total Exposure. I already had about 1% in them as I bought in initially at about 45p and then at 52p back in September 2014. It was all working out nicely, until they did a Profit Warning and the Stock fell off its Perch.
After my last Blog, this is rather more Sober - or even Sobering, as you can probably sense from the Title…….
Twitter Followers may have seen some comments from me recently about how I am feeling that the majority of Stocks are starting to look a bit expensive. This has particularly become the case in recent weeks when I have been plodding through the ‘Company Results’ Section at the back of Investors Chronicle and I am finding a lot of interesting, Quality, Companies but their Valuations look very high and not really the kind of levels I want to be buying at - I would more likely be selling.
Firstly, I must apologise for the Title of this Blog - I realise it is rather graphic and probably could put you off your Lunch/Dinner. I suppose you could say it is Wheelie’s Dirty Protest against the horrible Turds which I have allowed to foul up my Portfolio.
Perhaps such odorous writing comes from the fact I had a small Alcohol Injection just before I started work on this Blog. I figured that it was only a swift pint and that the effects of it would wear off as the Blog typing progressed. It was only a pint of ………..hang on, let me go and check the Recycle Bin……..(clearly audible whizzing sound at this point while I roll down the hallway)……….ah, yes, it was ‘Marstons Strong Pale Ale’. When I selected this Bottle, my mind saw the words ‘Pale Ale’ and the image conjured up was of something rather easy and mild. The reality is that it is 6.2% Alcohol by Volume, so maybe I should have paid more attention to the word ‘Strong’. |
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