Phew, that is September out of the way - this is historically the worst month on average so for us to have got through pretty much unscathed (apart from the odd cuts and bruises perhaps) is quite something. I covered October in last weekend’s Charts Blog (you can find it if you scroll down the Blog page in theory) but it tends to be an OK month and is ranked 5th Best of the Year. The only caveat is that some of the really nasty Biggest Falls for the Stockmarket took place in October - so this sort of taints its otherwise good record (the 1929 Wall Street Crash and the 1987 ‘Black Monday’ both transpired in October).
It is a bit of a double relief for me as I had a really pleasant turnaround for my Portfolio last week. From pretty much Monday through to Thursday I was bleeding Money every day, especially because my Biggest Holding BOO had a big drop, but by the Close on Friday I managed to eke out a small Gain of 0.25% - so I was pretty pleased about that (yet again a triumph for Diversity).
0 Comments
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY. I HAVE A VERY LARGE PORTFOLIO AND I USE DIVERSIFICATION TO SPREAD RISK ALONG WITH TRICKS LIKE HEDGING AND OCCASIONALLY BY THE USE OF STOPLOSSES - IF YOU BUY ANY STOCK YOU REALLY SHOULD FOCUS ON HOW IT FITS IN YOUR PORTFOLIO AND KEEP RISK MANAGEMENT AT THE FOREFRONT OF EVERYTHING YOU DO. BE AWARE THAT ALL INVESTORS/TRADERS GET THINGS WRONG AND MANY STOCK SELECTIONS WILL WORK OUT BADLY - MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THIS.
Boohoo.com BOO came out with Interim Results today and I thought they were superb. Of course, the Market thinks completely differently and the Shares got beat up 15% - it is my Biggest Holding so it did make me wince a little. Anyway, you can read the RNS for the Interims here: http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/boohoo/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=798&newsid=930898 The big stand out for me is the Growth Rate of the Revenues - up 106% over the 6 months (up 101% in Constant Currencies). Of course, many will trot out the “Revenue is Vanity, Profit is Sanity” adage and this is fair enough - but as often is the case, such simplistic phrases may not always be appropriate (bit like the “Never buy an IPO” which I think is just garbage). My take on this is that BOO is quite simply a Growth Company in the Hottest Growth Sector most of us will probably ever have the good fortune to trip over in our lifetimes - I cannot stress enough how unusual it is to have a Company that can grow at such a stellar pace - from recent memory, only Fevertree FEVR gets even remotely close (bored Readers might want to apply the kind of principles/modelling that I use in this Blog to FEVR and see what pops out at the end).
Earlier today our Australia Correspondent @nicktudor100 sent round a link on the tweets to a YouTube video by Tony Seba entitled ‘Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation’, which lasts slightly over 1 hour but I strongly recommend you grab a brew of some sort (or a FEVR enhanced intoxicant if you prefer) and take a bit of time out to watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0 It covers how ‘Disruptive’ technologies can grow exponentially (the ‘S’ curve) with plenty of examples like Smartfones and it makes the point that once the economics of switching make sense to the End-User, then adoption is extremely rapid. As always he cites the usual example of how fast Kodak declined - believe it or not they reported record Results in just the year 2000.
Still the Market Gods are smiling on me and I managed to eke out a small Gain last week - but from looking at some of the Charts which I will show in a bit, I suspect it might be hard to keep adding to these Gains. Last week I looked at the August Month history and it tends to be ok but a typical August often falls in the first couple of weeks and then recovers in the second half - this would certainly line up with a lot of what the Charts are suggesting.
I mentioned last week how I was intending to lower my Leverage and to prepare for some sogginess in the Autumn (September is historically the Worst Month) - having seen these Charts, I will most likely push my plans ahead and sell some stuff early next week. I have already drawn up a List of Spreadbets I want to reduce and I will work off this list.
There has been quite a change to my normal ‘Modus Operandi’ here (I have no idea what that is - probably some sort of Italian Car maybe; I hope it doesn‘t rust too much and the electrics aren‘t too dodgy), and as a total about-face of the usual logic, Part 2 of this Blog has already been published and you should be able to find it not far below on the Blog page. I take the view that it is good to have flexible thinking…..
I had been thinking about a Blog that stresses how important it is for us to try to peep into the near Future and it had merely got to the stage of being on the List of potential Blog Ideas (’The Slate’) but the recent fiasco at Utilitywise UTW has given me fresh impetuous to start work on this one because I see particular relevance as Everyone and his/her Mutt hate UTW but it is quite often the case that when something is collectively hated by the Herd, it is time to be buying.
The US Markets close at 1pm their time tomorrow (Monday) and are closed all day for the 4th of July stuff they do (I have no idea what it is for - I think it is to celebrate Tom Cruise or something - after all, he did do ‘Top Gun‘…..) So the chances are we will get a fairly dull start to the week and with Fridays usually being a bit ropey anyway, it might end up being a pretty tedious week. There are US Non Farm Payrolls on Friday (usually around 1.30pm our time) which might cause a spark of fun for the Traders.
I had a right ropey week last week - I screwed up on a Long DAX Trade and I got a swift kick in the goolies from Utilitywise UTW - I will look at those in a mo. June had up until then been a sort of ok month for me but then things went rapidly downhill and my Portfolio got spanked 2.7% on the week which is most definitely the worst Week I have had so far in 2017. Ah well, these things happen and at times like this I find it is best to keep the bigger picture in mind and I am still up nicely over 2017 so far so I am not going to get too stressed about it.
Last week was another good one for many holders of Stocks and Indexes all around the Globe are making new All Time Highs again which clearly shows how the Bulls are in control. This is clearly a difficult time for The Bears and our thoughts should be with them and perhaps we should start an Appeal Fund because they will be struggling to feed their families…….
On a serious note, with Markets in such a Bullish mood it is very dangerous to Short Stocks and I find it hard to see why it is worth the bother - the pressure is clearly to the upside and it is just so much easier to run with the Bulls. Having said that, we are now into the Summer Period (the weather might not support that fact !!) and Markets are likely to be less Bull friendly than they have been so far in 2017 - although it would probably be a big mistake to think they are going to fall a lot now. Who has the Bare-faced Cheek to Dare to be a Bear? A look at Indexes, Oil, Gold and the Quid21/5/2017
What a beautiful afternoon - and I hear on the Forecast that tomorrow is going to be the warmest day of the year - what a wonderful change. I spent most of the afternoon digging in the garden and finally got the Horse Poo dug in - I love the way that Garden Centres call it “Soil Improver” when we all know it is the smelly brown stuff that comes out of a Nag’s backside !!
I talked about this on Twitter and I think it is something worth noting about the Markets last week (not the Horse Poo !!). As things stood with plenty of Economic and Political travails and of course the usual Seasonal Effect of weak Markets at the end of May, Bears had every excuse to take the Markets down last week and they managed to an extent but were totally unable to ‘follow through’ - I think this could be taken as a positive.
I tripped over this upcoming Float on the Main List recently and wanted to have a look in more detail. Global Ports Holdings is a business which operates Ports for Cruise Liners, Ferries and Yachts across 14 Ports in 8 Countries and you can find their website here:
http://www.globalports.com.tr/index.php This chunk of text from their ‘About Us’ dropdown menu gives a good summary of what they do:
I ended up writing most of this on Saturday Night due to the ‘MotoGP of The Americas’ taking place in Texas and of course with the time difference it was broadcast fairly late (you can usually catch the Highlights at 7pm on Channel 5 on Monday Evening - it is not the best race ever but critical for the Championship with Marc Marquez never having been beaten in the US by anyone for 8 years - an incredible record).
Of course the big issue for the Markets now is the result of the First Round of the French Presidential Election where the Leader in the Polls, Macron, has taken the first place and Marine Le Pen has got through just behind him. It is conventional wisdom that Macron will win now in the Second Round and the Markets will probably like this because it removes a risk of Le Pen pushing for France to leave the Euro and for the Schengen Border Area to be replaced by National Borders. |
'Educational' WheelieBlogsWelcome to my Educational Blog Page - I have another 'Stocks & Markets' Blog Page which you can access via a Button on the top of the Homepage. Archives
January 2021
Categories
All
Please see the Full Range of Book Ideas in Wheelie's Bookshop.
|