THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY. I HAVE A VERY LARGE PORTFOLIO AND I USE DIVERSIFICATION TO SPREAD RISK ALONG WITH TRICKS LIKE HEDGING AND OCCASIONALLY BY THE USE OF STOPLOSSES - IF YOU BUY ANY STOCK YOU REALLY SHOULD FOCUS ON HOW IT FITS IN YOUR PORTFOLIO AND KEEP RISK MANAGEMENT AT THE FOREFRONT OF EVERYTHING YOU DO. BE AWARE THAT ALL INVESTORS/TRADERS GET THINGS WRONG AND MANY STOCK SELECTIONS WILL WORK OUT BADLY - MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THIS.
I have been aware of CAKE ever since it floated about 2.5 years ago - despite the high falutin’ name, Readers probably know this better as the Patisserie Valerie Coffee and yummy Cake shops. It has always struck me as a strong Growth Story that really relies on the rollout of new Shops and it has impressive Management with Luke Johnson who did Pizza Express driving it. For ages it has just been too expensive for me on a Forward P/E up around the high 20s but recently it has been in a downtrend (funnily enough I have seen many IPOs do this - they start off very strong then after maybe a year or so they start to go off the boil, even though the Business probably hasn’t changed at all) and it is starting to look much better value - especially after a recent very strong Trading Update. I don’t hold CAKE and I have too many Stocks anyway but I wanted to do a deeper look at them and I thought that writing a Blog would keep me off the streets and force me to really dig deep into what the story is here. Reading the recent Update on the morning it came out was what got me very interested again as they are clearly doing a lot of things right.
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THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
This morning I bought more GoCompare.com GOCO because I totally adore that Opera Singer on the TV Ads. Actually, you might be surprised to hear that is not why I bought more GOCO - the truth is I am far more besotted by the Meerkats. I paid the princely sum of 76.5p per Share and picked up roughly another 1% of my Portfolio Value - I already had a ridiculously small amount after they were ‘spun-out’ from my Esure ESUR Share Holding - but I reckon I only had perhaps 0.5% of my Portfolio Value in them. Yesterday GOCO put out a nicely positive Trading Update (which you can read at the link further down below) and following this they jumped 12% on the day which is obviously a sizeable move. As ever, I dislike making snap decisions about Buying or Selling during the Trading Day and I kept patient and waited until after the Markets were closed to coldly look at the situation and decide whether or not to buy more.
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
Earlier today I bought more Glencore GLEN at 285p via a Spreadbet - I already hold quite a few and felt a need to add to my collection. The thinking behind this was as follows (note this is only high level stuff and not comprehensive or particularly detailed):
This shouldn’t be too lengthy. Back on Tuesday 20th December 2016 I bought more NG. via a Spreadbet at 937p. This Blog should just outline why I moved when I did and point out the superb Divvy situation going on here. I won’t spend time explaining what NG. is - I am sure most Readers will be pretty clued up on them anyway - it is not really a complex business to understand. Anyway, I wrote a Blog on them a while back which you can find here which might give some background (there is a great link to a piece by Jamie at Compound Income as well - he‘s always worth reading):
http://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/blog/ng-buy-rationale
The sharp-eyed among Readers may have spotted I bought more GlaxoSmithkline GSK this morning via a Spreadbet at 1488p adding to a Position I already hold in my Income Portfolio as normal Shares. My intention at the moment is that if the Buy goes ok, I will probably close out the Spreadbet once I am happy with any gain and I feel that it is likely to drop but I will give it time and I will keep the Shares in the Income Portfolio.
This won’t be a long blog, I just want to point out the Triggers that made me decide to buy more GSK - I have been watching this drop for Weeks and I have been looking for decent Technical Signals that it is time to make a move on them.
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
If you’re keeping up with the tinkering I have been doing to the WD Portfolio, you may remember I bought a small stake in Devro DVO some weeks back after they had a Profit Warning and the Shares had dropped a lot. This was quite unusual for me as I tend not to buy into ‘Trouble’ if I can avoid it - however, in this case, DVO is a Stock I have dabbled with in the past and I know the Company reasonably well. My logic here was that this could be a decent chance to buy into them at a good price and I was particularly interested in the increased Capacity that the new factories have brought along and how this could give them space to grow in the future.
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY.
Devro DVO is a stock I have invested in before and I note that it has put out some weak results over the last year or so and has got quite beaten up - it is at 3 year Lows so maybe there is Value here and I quite like the idea of having something that is food related (they do Skins for Sausages) in my Portfolio as I don’t really have any exposure here. From a quick glance the usual Investment Ratios like Forward P/E and Divvy Yield etc. look ok, but the big stand out is the Debt - this has shot up in the last year and obviously creates some sort of Risk if it is not manageable. From what I understand, much of the problems (and the High Debt) stem from delays in getting a new Chinese Factory up and running - my hunch is that maybe once the Factory is on stream, Costs will drop and we will see Debt start to fall quickly - if so, then the extra Capacity could give DVO a lot of new Growth Potential and I suspect the Market is totally missing this important point.
Part 1 of this Blog Series was scribbled about a week ago - I recommend reading that and understanding it before trying to get your head around this one - it’s an extremely important topic but not particularly easy to get a grip of.
How to Interpret the P/E Ratio Right, now we have got to the critical bit. Calculating a P/E Ratio (remember, I prefer the Forward P/E Ratio) is one thing, but it is not much use if you have no framework and knowledge to put that Number into context. The following list should help with that interpretation (well, that‘s the plan anyway - you may need to read it a few times and perhaps makes notes - this is extremely important):
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY COS SADLY I DON‘T HAVE PERFECT ABILITY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, AND BEAR IN MIND THAT I AM A LONG TERM INVESTOR USING MANY RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES. UTW IS A SMALL HIGH RISK COMPANY AND NOT ONE TO PUT YOUR LIFE SAVINGS IN !!
I must say it is really nice to be writing this blog. It seems that recently I have barely done any blogs specific to individual companies and it is really refreshing to have to get my Research & Analysis head on and get stuck into thinking hard about a business.
THIS IS NOT A TIP OR RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITE. IF YOU COPY MY TRADES, YOU WILL PROBABLY LOSE MONEY. GPM IS A SMALL COMPANY WHICH IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE GOLD PRICE AND NOT ONE TO PUT YOUR LIFE SAVINGS IN !!
You may have noticed that I bought some Golden Prospect Precious Metals Investment Trust (Epic Code GPM) yesterday via a Spreadbet at 36.5p and I just wanted to do a quick Blog to show my thinking to Readers. I will not do an extravaganza here because I am tight for time and to be honest I don’t think it is necessary as the Investment Case is pretty simple - in one word, Gold. |
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