I guess, like many of you reading this, I have nearly had enough of OPAY - seems to be all I ever think or Tweet or Email or BB Post about these days.
The irony of this Blog is not lost on me - trying to write a Blog about how I use my wonderful timing Indicators to get me in at a good price just as it turns upwards, merely a day after the Share Price has tanked 22%, seems rather paradoxical. Clearly my Timing could not have been much worse…. Hey, you gotta look at the positives - in this Share Investing game if you do not have a positive (optimistic) outlook then I really wonder why you bother. This is all about the future and if all you see is Doom and Gloom, then I guess you should have a Portfolio of Short Positions !!
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Well, there I was settling down to a nice snooze after looking through the Company Announcements this morning and the markets all seemed pretty flat and uninteresting……..Next minute a TXT pops in from a mate - “Have you seen Tom W on OPAY?”
“Oh Sh*t," I thought…. So I quickly got my head around the story that OPAY CEO Joel Leonoff has been involved in a similar convoluted Share Buy / Sell / Loan or whatever it is with Equity First Holdings (EFH) like Rob Terry had done at QPP, which caused the enormous collapse in QPP share price this week. I wasn’t intending to write this Blog but as I was doing the OPAY Buying Rationale one lately, I realised it was getting a bit lengthy and I decided that I could write a separate Blog on the timing of my Buy.
It then occurred to me that I could flatten several flocks of feathery creatures at the same time with one almighty chuck - as well as the OPAY Buy it gives me the chance to show how I use Technical Analysis to time Buys and Sells, and also how ShareScope software helps me with this. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I AM NOT FCA REGULATED. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH (DYOR)
I am sure I have mentioned before that one of my favourite ways of picking great stocks is to look at ‘Big Themes’ that are changing the way we live and growing at very high rates. 2 such themes are Online / Mobile Banking and Payments, and the rise of Online / Mobile Commerce. The growth rates are extremely high - providing a superb Tailwind for good businesses in this space. You may have seen my Tweet around 8.30am this morning where I said I had sold my AstraZeneca AZN Spreadbet Position, and that I am keeping my Normal Shares in my Income Portfolio.
As ever, I made this Topslicing decision out of Market Hours last night while looking at my Stock Charts on the ShareScope software I use. My thinking is that since the recent nasty sell off in Markets Overall, we have seen a very strong and fast bounce over the last week and I cannot see that this can go much further in the short term. I will be issuing another Blog either tonight or tomorrow that investigates this further. I am aware that some recent blogs have been a bit meaty - both for you unfortunate people to read and for me to write (I am not sure who got the worst side of that). Therefore, I will try and keep this shortish and I will jump in the WheelieCopter to keep it high level and stay out of the Weeds.
The Business I have no doubt you are all aware of the AA (The Automobile Association in the old days) - after all, it is one of the Top10 most recognised Brands in the UK. I won’t dwell on what they do, but I will point out a key fact - 90% of their revenues are from Roadside Assistance and therefore incredibly reliable and predictable. The other 10% is from Insurance and I think there is a tad of travel in there somewhere. I have intended to write this Blog for ages - but keep getting distracted. Luckily the shares have not moved much yet so still seems relevant.
Pets at Home (epic code PETS) is probably my favourite share at the moment and I have very big hopes for it (oh, no, this is gonna be a right turkey then !!) and I have about 4% of my Portfolio in it - and it wouldn’t take a lot to encourage me to buy more. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM MERELY OUTLINING WHY I BOUGHT TCM
Those of you Following WheelieDealer on Twitter and/or reading my Twitter Feed on the website homepage, will be aware that I bought some Telit Communications (epic code TCM) earlier this morning, at 230p. I have been ‘in’ TCM for about 18 months and bought my first chunk at about 86p - something I have learnt from following the Legendary Robbie Burns (Naked Trader) is not to be scared about buying more of a stock even after a good rise. Simply put, if it is still a great company and you can see value in it, then buy. Well, what a difference a few days makes - last week I was verging on suicidal, this week I am relaxed and all is well in the world - apart from nasty winds which has scared me off dinner with a mate and a lovely Pasta bake…….
Anyway, what should I do with my FTSE100 Short Hedge? As you may have picked up from my various recent missives, I hate doing anything in a rush without proper consideration. So, I have been thinking long and hard about this today. Today was an absolute shocker on the markets with the FTSE100 falling near 3% after a couple of weeks of similar falls. What really concerns me is that it appeared Support for the FTSE100 price was building at 6300 but that failed today. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already very low below 30 and the price has been sat on the bottom Bollinger Band and continues to fall. You would sensibly expect a rally with such Oversold conditions - this has been the pattern for probably the last 2 to 3 years.
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