THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITES.
No peace for the wicked is there. I have just finished Part 1 and now I am caressing my keyboard for Part 2. Shouldn’t be too hard as I do not intend to do much detail on the Company - I think most readers will have a sufficient grasp of what Shell do to enable us to cut to the juicy stuff. I will cover Key Fundamentals, Valuation and Target, and the Technical Analysis elements which suggested to me that it was a reasonable time to Buy.
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THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE HOME PAGE OF MY WEBSITES.
Back on Thursday 18th December 2014, I bought a few more Royal Dutch Shell RDSB via a Spreadbet, so I thought a fairly quick Blog to explain this might be appreciated. I would like to know myself why the hell I bought an Oil Stock just as Oil is in Freefall !! Needless to say, probably the biggest driver on the RDSB Share Price is the price of Oil - I have not investigated any correlation but I suspect it is quite close - although I do not think RDSB swings around anything like as wildly as the Oil Price can. RDSB also finds ‘support’ due to the Dividend Yield - I will cover this more in Part2 if I remember - in simple terms, at 2000p, the Dividend Yield for 2014 is nearly 6% - this attracts the Income Buyers like me !! When is it time to dump a Stock? An overview of WheelieDealer’s Sell Triggers - Part 2 of 310/12/2014 Hopefully this Blog can flow sweetly, but I am a bit worried because I am starting it off just after I shoved a Chicken Pie and Chips in the oven - so I will be rudely interrupted in about 25 minutes and probably have totally lost my flow when I write the remnants of this with a full belly and after culinary distractions. I am not sure if these are ideal conditions to be producing a good Blog in - we will find out soon enough…….
This is the second part of my ‘Mini Series’ on what kind of situations make me Sell a stock I hold. Part 1 was focussed on my Income Portfolio and Unit Trusts - this one concerns my usual Trading ISA (including Spreadbets) where I am much more active (think Snail like trading as opposed to Glacial !!). Oh, by the way, I have written some text on Example Unit Trust Portfolios - expect this very soon. Where on earth does the time go? It must be about 3 weeks since I started this Series of Blogs - I expected to nail them in a few days !!
Today I want to cover a simple concept - Long Term Moving Averages and a couple of much more complicated ideas - MACD and Bollinger Bands - however, the latter 2 are probably the BEST Indicators in my Toolkit (although RSI is pretty good as well). As ever, it is probably advisable to read the earlier Parts 1 to 4 before you delve into this one. THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
You may have seen on Twitter that I bought another chunk of Telecom Plus (TEP) for my Income Portfolio ISA this morning, at a price of 1218.28p. I will just do a quick Rationale today - I suspect many readers are already aware of TEP so I don’t think there is a huge need for me to go into too much detail. I bought about 1% of my Overall Portfolio Value (this includes everything, this is not just a % of the Income Portfolio) and TEP is now about 4% in Total - so one of my biggest positions, and very much a Long Term Hold. OK, in Part 3 I promised you Relative Strength Index (RSI) and that’s what I am going to give you - but this is delayed gratification - I am gonna tease you with Moving Averages first - you lucky people…..hmmmm.
I love the RSI Indicator - it works really very well - and gives great Signals whether to Buy or Sell. Moving Averages Look at the Chart below. In the Top Window we have the normal Share Price Line with a few coloured meandering lines. The sort of nearly Flat Light Blue Line is the 200 day Simple Moving Average (200 day ma). The Darker Blue Line is the 50 day Simple Moving Average (50 day ma). THIS IS NOT A TIP. I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON MY HOME PAGE. IF YOU BUY THIS STOCK YOU MAY LOSE MONEY.
If you Follow me on Twitter or look at the Feed on my Home Page (there is also one on WheelieDealer2), then you may have seen that after an initial hiccup I managed to buy a load more Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) at 48.45p this morning. I already had about 2% of my overall Portfolio Value in it and I added another 0.5% roughly. The trigger for my buy was a totally storming set of Preliminary Full Year Results - as I pointed out on Twitter, it is almost faultless, and it is very unusual to see a Statement this good. So, imagine my surprise when the shares had hardly budged after about 45 minutes of trading - I decided this was crazy and it would be very rude not to take advantage and top-up. Oh no, it’s that time again, when I grab a Coffee and stare at my screen in utter bewilderment trying to figure out what a chart from a couple of weeks ago is trying to tell me…..and that time when you grab a Coffee and think “oh no, Wheelie is gonna make my brain hurt again.”
Today I am going to subject you to the next Indicator I looked at the other week prior to buying into OPAY (remember these charts are from a couple of weeks back and the current chart is radically different - it is probably a good idea to read Parts 1 and 2 of the Series before bothering with this.) Momentum The Chart below should be fairly quick and easy to explain. What I am trying to show you hear is the Bottom Window marked “12 momentum (Daily)” - I have no idea how this Indicator is created (they are all mathematical derivations - ShareScope Help has a glossary of how these things are created but I never look - irrelevant to me; what matters to me is their predictive power). I wasn’t going to produce this Blog as I have lots of other stuff I want to do to the Website and I really should be cracking on with that. However, I felt that by bashing out this text it might help me think clearly about the FTSE100 Short I have in place - one of the superb side-effects of all this Blogging is that it forces me to think very carefully about any trades I undertake or hold.
Thought for all readers - how about making your own blogs? So what if no one reads it, just the process of writing things out clearly will make you a better investor I suspect. With stunning FREE website offerings like weebly.com, the ability to Blog has never been easier. If people read my cr*p then I am sure they will read yours !! THIS IS NOT A TIP, THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION, I AM NOT A TIPSTER. PLEASE SEE THE DISCLAIMER BY CLICKING THE RED BUTTON ON MY HOME PAGE
If you watch my Twitter Feed (remember, if you are not on Twitter, you can see it on the Home Page of either of my Websites) you may have noticed that I bought a small Spreadbet in Sprue Aegis (SPRP) at 322p this morning around 9am ish. I kept the position small, it’s about 0.75% of my overall Portfolio because I already have a mountain of SPRP in normal shares but I just thought the Trading Update was so good today, it would be rude not to celebrate with another buy !! Let’s be honest, it was the least I could do to support the company and show my appreciation…..clap, clap, clap… |
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