Well actually if I am Barry Manilow I don’t. When he sang those classic lines of MOR dirge, “I write the Songs that make the whole world sing”, he was totally telling Porkies - I heard that on Lisa Tarbuck earlier and the irony really appealed to me.
I had a lucky escape today (no, I didn’t nearly buy a Barry Manilow CD), as I was hoping to get the to the MotoGP Bike Race at Silverstone but I was watching the BTsport Coverage yesterday of the Qualifying Sessions and it was pretty clear that the Commentary Team and the Riders etc. were fairly confident the weather would be poor today and there was a big chance it would get cancelled. As it happens after many delays and much mucking about, the Race finally did get cancelled at about 4pm and you gotta feel sorry for all the Fans who had stoically stayed there in the hope they would see some Bikes - I guess the only glimpse they got was earlier in the day when the Bikes did a Sighting Lap and lined up on the Grid, only for them to leave the Track when the first Delay was announced.
I am sure I was at Silverstone in something like 1988 when the weather for the 500cc Race was atrocious and the memories of this have stuck with me - and those were back in the days when my Legs worked and if it was bad then I would utterly hate it now (Wheelchairs and Rain and Mud are a bad mix I find). With it being an old WW2 Airfield (they had Wellington Bombers there, hence the names ‘Hangar Straight’ and ‘Wellington Straight’) it is very open and when the wind whips across and drives the rain it can be really unpleasant - in addition it gets very cold even in Summer. With these Memories luckily we made the right decision not to bother driving up there - that was definitely a wise course of inaction.
As it turned out the Race seems to have been finally cancelled because of a revolt by the Riders - only 2 of them were prepared to race and the Organisers who wanted it to go ahead had no choice really. It seems likely their reticence was partly fuelled by Tito Rabat having a really bad and unlucky accident yesterday which has smashed his leg up in an awful way (tib, fib, Femur, Knee) and the problem is that the Track was resurfaced earlier this year for £3m but sadly after being in really good shape initially for some unknown reason it has got really bumpy (I wonder if the Hot Weather did it) and with the new Tarmac the Water is not draining down through the surface - so the Bikes are aquaplaning and basically become uncontrollable. It must be a very difficult balance between Safety and putting on a Show for the Fans and TV and with the inherent dangers in going at daft speeds it will always carry risks. They have most definitely raced in far worse conditions in the past.
Talking of Liars as I was earlier on with that outrageous disregard of the truth by Monsieur Manilow, there is immense fuss in the UK Media about all the Criminals Trump has working around him and of course there is incessant talk on the BBC and Channel 4 News etc. about him getting impeached. If this were to happen it could be very troublesome for Markets because his Low Tax and Deregulation Policies along with a big Fiscal Boost are seen to be very positive for the US Economy and as we know, when the US Economy starts sneezing, the Rest of the World catches a cold.
However, I think we can all calm down on this as impeachment is extremely unlikely for the simple reason that firstly Congress would need to vote for Trump’s impeachment by a simple Majority (more than 50% of Congressmen) and then the Senate needs a ‘Super Majority’ of more than 2/3 to vote for impeachment. Both events are complicated by the Republicans having the upper hand in both Houses and even if the Democrats can take control of the Congress in the Mid Term Elections in November (there is certainly no guarantee of this with the US Economy booming and the Democrats lacking an appealing Candidate to lead them) and of course impeachment would still need the Super Majority in the Senate. It is also worth realising that although many Republicans try to detach themselves from Trump in reality they are only interested in being Elected (in the US, being in the Congress or Senate is a guaranteed route to riches) and if Trump’s stewardship of the Economy gets Voters choosing the Republicans, you won’t hear them complaining much.
The November Mid-Terms will be interesting - it seems highly likely that a possible impeachment will be used by the Republicans to rally their Vote - the messaging will be something like “Do you want Nancy Pelosi in the White House?” and equally Elizabeth Warren (Pocohontas) seems pretty unpopular.
In addition, you can forget about Trump facing any Charges for any Crimes - the common interpretation of the US Constitution is that no sitting President can be Indicted of a Crime - although once out of Office they can hang the swine !!! All the fuss simply plays to his Base and shores up his Support - his crusade to “Drain the Swamp” in Washington is supported by a large part of the American Electorate and quite frankly they are right because it is full of rogues on both sides of the Political Spectrum.
The bigger question is whether or not Trump will get a Second Term - if he does it will shock a lot of Lefties to the core but it is very possible - “It’s the Economy, stupid”…….
Well, that was a really weird one. Yet again the Markets and in particular my Stocks it seems, were chopping around like crazy and in the end I was down 0.3% across my Portfolio for the Week - not too much damage but I am really getting fed up with the seemingly relentless chipping away at my Portfolio and a spell of Rises wouldn’t go amiss although with September having the reputation as the ‘Worst Month of the Year’ I doubt there will be much reprieve for a while.
Having said that, it does strike me that although every Summer is pretty shabby, this one has been particularly dull and Stocks are starting to look very good value in a lot of cases. I suspect worries around Brexit have put Buyers off and one possible consequence of this could be that we will not get too much of a Sell-off this Autumn despite that being the normal pattern. It is impossible to know in advance but it would not be a shock to me if we just keep grinding on like this until there is proper clarity on what is happening with Brexit with regards to any Deal and Transition Period - if there is a ‘No Deal’ scenario (this is unlikely but possible) then that would probably cause a big Sell-off - if not in Stocks, then certainly in the Pound. As I am sure I covered a few Weeks ago, Theresa May is really hanging on by a thread and her Chequers Plan is highly unpopular all round - there is a real risk that she gets a Leadership Challenge and the Tory Party Conference could be the point at which things start to happen. This could lead to a General Election which would really spook the Markets I suspect.
Needless to say my Strategy is just the same as it has been for yonks - I am very cautious and not looking to buy anything and more likely to trim some Positions to increase my Cash which is already fairly high by my usual standards. I will keep watching the Charts for signs of impending trouble and will keep a track on the News with regards to the Brexit Talks to see if I need to really get super cautious.
I feel really sorry for Readers of my Blogs recently - I am sorry they are so boring !! (heck, they are boring me to write as well !!) The simple truth as I see it is that the Markets really are potentially very ‘dangerous’ at the moment and this is not the time to be taking huge Risks on the Long side of things. It’s a shame because this has been my stance for most of 2018 but I am not going to write ‘exciting’ and ‘enthralling’ Blogs with lots of Stock ideas in them to buy and being all gung ho and such nonsense when I quite simply think this is the wrong thing to be doing. This is a time to be very very careful in my view.
You may not agree with me on this and I am sure that if you are much more Short Term in your approach and are really more of what I would call a ‘Trader’ than a Long Term ‘Investor‘, then you could well have a point - of course there are always Short Term Opportunities on both the Long and Short tack but I am someone with a Long Term View and I just think there will be far better chances to buy for the Long Term which will arise in coming Months. As it turns out this has been a classic “Sell in May and go away” year and people who did just that have really been rewarded by avoiding a lot of tedious downwards drift in the Markets. I could make all sorts of daft claims etc. about what Stocks to buy but I am pretty confident that Readers would far rather get my version of what is the ‘right’ thing to do and that is what I will always give (even at the cost of making my Blogs extremely dull !!). I won’t always (or often for that matter !!) be correct but that is my stance and Readers must do their own thing with their own Portfolios and what I say is just yet another Straw in the Wind of Noise that Readers need to navigate their way through.
Don’t worry, when the time is right again to be exciting and readable I will try my best - I can probably do the ‘readable’ (in the same sense that Rich Tea Biscuits are just about edible) but ‘exciting’ might be a stretch…..
On another matter, I did one of my periodic checks on my iWeb Income Portfolio (full details can be found at the top of my ‘Portfolios’ page and if you look at the ‘Scores on the Doors‘ Blog for 2017 there is a Screenshot of my actual iWeb Account) and now it is up 9.3% for 2018 so far which is incredible when you consider I do almost nothing to it. The Cash is building up so I need to deploy some or all of that soon but with Markets very iffy I am not rushing. I will most likely buy some Vodafone VOD or buy more of a Stock I already hold. It is sad that my ‘Normal’ ISA is barely at breakeven !! (although the benefits of Diversification are clear).
Gold and Silver and Precious Metals
I came across this Link recently with regards to Precious Metals etc., some Readers might find it interesting:
Naked Trader Radioshow
I sent this round on Twitter and Readers who only access the Website might be interested. Robbie Burns has recorded a Podcast ‘Radioshow’ which is a shade under 2 hours long and contains lots of Dance Music (if you keep up with Robbie’s scribblings you will know he is nuts about such tunes !!) along with comic clips ala Kenny Everett and in amongst this he discusses lots of Shares including the Retail Sector, Cake Companies and various things like why falling in lurve with a Share is a silly idea. You can listen to it here:
WheelieBash Saturday 15th September
If you go to the Homepage and scroll down you can get full details on the WheelieBash which is being held at The White Hart pub in Winkfield just outside Windsor (not far from Legoland). The List is filling up and we have just a few spaces left - if you want to come along then please email me or tweet me or whatever and I will make sure there is space for you.
Top Gear Video
Last week I issued a Blog about my experiences many years ago when I appeared on BBC Top Gear in a segment called the ‘World’s Fastest Disabled Driver’ (don’t worry, for safety reasons I was the slowest !!) but sadly the Link I had to the Youtube Video wasn’t working anymore. Unfortunately for my embarrassment, my mate Martin (@InvestingMartin) did some digging and miraculously turned it up at the following Link - you need to scroll forwards to about 33 minutes in (it‘s Season 2, Episode 10):
I will amend the earlier Blog when I get a chance and stick the Link in there for future endurance by Readers…..
I managed to crack on with the Blogs about ‘The Diminishing Problem’ and they are both in pretty good shape now so with some final tweaks I expect to issue Part 1 in the coming Week. After that I must start thinking about my idea of a Checklist for Stocks that I want to buy - leave it with me !!
I am amazed that I wrote this back in December 2015 - it is insane how time just whizzes by so speedily (’young‘ Readers take note !!). Anyway, I remember writing it (which is remarkable at my advanced age) and I like it because it is one of those WheelieBlogs which is quite unique and you won’t find much like it:
With Autumn and September in particular being such soggy Months and with all the considerable ‘Big Picture’ Risks we have kicking around, I think it is appropriate that I trot out the good old ‘Bear Market Blog’ because although most of you will be bored to tears by this one, there will be Readers who are new to the whole WD thing and they might not have suffered it yet in the way you have (and I am nothing if not a mean and cruel Barsteward). With possibly difficult Markets ahead there might be some ideas to think about here with regards to how you keep your Head balanced and deal with the psychology side of things:
That’s a lot of stuff covered, better lob some Charts in now or everyone will start to think that not only have I become the ‘World’s most tedious Blog Writer’ but I have also betrayed my Technical Analysis fascinations….
With September just days away now, I have been very twitchy on the ‘Sell to Hedge’ button and been watching the Index Charts very closely for signs that we might be about to drop back. Last Week on Thursday I got some pretty good signs across almost all Indexes that this was about to happen and on that basis I did a Small Spreadbet Short on the S&P500 (you can read the details on the ‘Trades’ page). Then on Friday the US Markets were really strong and got quite near my Stoploss - so we obviously need to look at that Chart closely now.
As always the Charts I show are from the brilliant ShareScope Software that I subscribe to. If you have a decent Charting Package or Website and if you use SharePad you should be able to recreate all the Indicators and stuff I use if you want to. If you click on the images then they should get larger for you to see more detail.
The messy Chart below has the Daily Candlesticks for the S&P500 and this is my actual ‘Working’ Screen which I use to track my Trades and monitor what is going on. My Yellow Circle is highlighting the Inverted Hammer Candle from Tuesday last Week which was a big factor in my decision to put the Small Short on. After the Inverted Hammer you can see that the S&P500 fell on Wednesday and Thursday and I opened the Short on Thursday night. Then on Friday we got a Big White Up Candle as per my Black Arrow and this has got quite near my Stoploss at 2880 which is where the Pink Line is (Pink Arrow). I will wait to see how it plays out on Monday (the Yanks do not have a Bank Holiday) and if it Closes above 2880 I will go into my igindex Account and close the Short and take a small Loss. I am eager to be Short for September though so I will be looking to Short again if I do get Stopped Out if a Signal is given - although I might not use the S&P500.
The difficulty here is that the FTSE100 has become a useless Index to Hedge with both because of its over-exposure to a few Huge Stocks and the way it behaves almost like Forex with its reaction to movements in the Pound - so the S&P500 is my preferred Index to use but it is so bullish that going Short is not working out all that well of late. The FTSE250 could be a good one to Short but it does not trade ‘Out of Hours’ which makes it a little less convenient for me but I might try using it more in future. In the past the high Margin Requirements for the FTSE250 were annoying but with the ESMA Spreadbet/CFD Regulation changes there is probably little difference with the S&P500 or FTSE100 now regarding Margin/Deposit needs.
In the bottom window on the Screen below we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the S&P500. On a reading of RSI 62 it is not particularly high and could rise from here.
I could have shown this on the previous Chart but I will just chuck this one in. Ignore the Lines on this one except for the Black Horizontal Line at the top which marks the Previous All Time High at 2873. If the S&P500 can get cleanly over this then that would be very Bullish and of course my Short must be closed. On Friday during the Day the S&P500 got up to 2876 so that is a New All Time High but it closed at 2874 so it just crept over the Previous ATH. We need to see how it goes on Monday and it could easily be that we got a freak ‘overshoot’ on Friday and it drops back. Whatever, I will be driven by my Stoploss and react accordingly.
I said ignore the Lines but I must just point out that both the 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages (the Blue and Black Arrows) are both moving up and this is Bullish.
On the Chart below where my Yellow Circle is you should be able to see that the S&P500 is up near the Upper Bollinger Band (the wavy Blue Line) - it might hit this and then drop back - it all depends on the next few Days.
This one is really Bullish as I will show now. Ignore most of the Chart below but my Green Circle is highlighting where on Friday the Nasdaq Comp broke-out over the Previous All Time High at 7933 - this is Bullish. I often say that the S&P500 is sort of a blend between the Nasdaq Tech Index and the Dow Jones Industrials - it is certainly the strength in Tech which has driven up the S&P500 and made my Short look like it will need to be Closed.
Dow Jones Industrial Index (the DOW)
I’m hoping you can see the detail sufficiently on this one but if not of course you can find your own Chart of the DOW to adjust according to your needs. This should illustrate my point that the S&P500 is so Bullish largely because of the Nasdaq - you should first be able to see that we are some way below the All Time High at 26617 unlike the other Indexes which are both slightly above the previous ATHs. Next if you look at where my Pink Arrow is this shows the Candle from Friday and note how it dropped back slightly intraday and also that it didn’t manage to get above the Inverted Hammer from Tuesday (marked by my Green Arrow). So it is clearly lagging the S&P500 and the NASDAQ (the DOW contains less big Tech Stocks and only has 30 Megacaps in it).
I’m sure I have been using this Chart in recent Weeks and after the Price Action last Week not a lot has changed !! My Green Arrow is pointing to a small White Doji Candle from Friday and to a large extent the FTSE100 went pretty much Sideways over the Week. My Red Arrow is pointing to a Low just below 7500 near the 200 Day Moving Average Line (marked by my Black Arrow) and this Support Level must hold if we do get a move downwards.
Note also that the 50 Day Moving Average which is marked by my Blue Line is heading down towards the 200 Day MA (Black Arrow) - if they Cross we get a Bearish ‘Death Cross’ and this would suggest Weeks and Months of pain ahead. To the Upside there is a lot of Resistance between about 7600 and 7800 - a lot of treacle to wade through.
Perhaps there is a small grain of hope for Bulls on this Weekly Chart for the FTSE100. My Black Arrow is pointing to a Doji Candle from last Week which after the drop down of the Week before might suggest a Reversal back upwards. However, we shouldn’t get too excited because this is not a great ‘context’ - ideally we would have more Down Candles before getting such a Doji and then it would be more likely to be a Reversal.
Galliford Try GFRD
I know a lot of Readers are in GFRD and the Shares seem to have been pretty strong of late (note that since the Rights Issue was ‘got away’ they have recovered hugely - the New Shares were issued at 568p) and I thought it would be interesting to see what the Chart had to say on the matter. Just for your info, GFRD is due to pay a Dividend Yield of 7.75% next year which is still pretty tasty.
As is ‘good practice’ in Chart stuff we will start with the Big Picture and then drill inwards. Ignore the other lines on the Chart below, but this goes back about 8 years and note the Uptrend Support Line at the bottom in Red marked by my Red Arrow and then note the Downtrend Resistance Line in Green marked by my Green Arrow.
Now on the same Chart I have zoomed in to about the last 2 Years or just less and now we have a Blue Downtrend Resistance Line marked by my Blue Arrow and note that the Price is now butting up against this Resistance. We need to get through this Blue Line to make more progress now.
Note how the 50 Day MA (the Darker Blue Wiggly Line) is moving up towards the 200 Day MA (the Lighter Blue Wiggler) - so we might be treated to a Bullish ‘Golden Cross’ quite soon and if this happens it implies more gains in coming Weeks/Months. However, if the Price weakens off now then the 50 Day MA could start dropping again and avoid the Golden Cross - really the key thing here is to Breakout of that Blue Resistance Line to the upside.
Drilling in again where my Black Arrow is below we had an Inverted Hammer on Friday and note how in the last 3 Days the High of the Day (the Top of each Candlestick) has got slightly lower - almost in line with the Blue Resistance Line. There is a simple reason for this - Traders use these Lines to plan and execute their Trades and to an extent Charting stuff is ‘self-fulfilling’.
It is clear that GFRD has had a good push up in recent Weeks and it is obviously very likely that it is ‘Overbought’ from a Technical standpoint. To measure this, we can look at the RSI below in the bottom window and on a Reading of RSI 64 it is not extreme but clearly it is at the higher end of the usual RSI 30 to RSI 70 Range - this is not conclusive by any means but it could pullback a little to ‘calm down’ before another push up. See how previous Peaks in the RSI are around a similar level.
Now we have the Daily Candles with the Blue Squiggly Bollinger Bands above and below. My Yellow Circle is supposed to be shining a light on how the Price Candles are up near the Top BB so it would be no shock if it dropped back now.
OK, I will leave it there. Best Wishes to everyone for the coming Week and remember that September is just around the corner and caution is probably wise.
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