As usual I am punching the Keyboard on Sunday Evening and of course yesterday we had the Official 2018 WheelieBash at the White Hart Pub in Winkfield, near Windsor near Legoland (which is where we held it last year and most likely we will hold it there in 2019 !!). We were immensely lucky with the weather as it meant we could stay out in the Garden for pretty much the whole day and it was only much later that a smaller group of us remained to retire into the Bar area for some light Food and more Beer and Banter - too things that most definitely weren’t in short supply and I am sure the Fevertree Mixers were taken full advantage of by some particular members of the crowd.
We had 40 People attend and this was an ideal number although I had a chat with Landlord Phil and he reckons that next Year he could cope with 55 if he had to (he seemed to have a really broad smile when saying this and a clear glint in his eye - I think they had a good day behind the Bar !!). So my thinking for next Year is that I will open it up to 60 People on the List and that will probably get us near that 55 number because inevitably a few drop out on the day. Last Year we had just over 30 People so we are showing very good growth year on year !!
It really was a superb group of people and everyone participated and got into the spirit of the Event and it was particularly pleasing to me how someone who was pretty much unknown to the Group could turn up and instantly be brought into the disucssions and part of the buzz - a real credit to everyone who was involved and the whole atmosphere was something that could not be improved upon. I was really pleased with the mix of Attendees and there were clear Groups of Newer Investors who were frantically scribbling in Notebooks and there were a lot of People who had probably 2 or 3 Years of experience and then there were a chunk of proper ‘Old Stagers’ who have been in the game since buying Shares in Noah’s Ark when he fist floated his shipping venture (I fortunately didn’t get Stopped Out on NOAH - oooooh, I shouldn’t mention the ‘Vinegar’ word - sorry, that’s a In-Joke for the Bar Crowd !!)
So a Massive THANK YOU MUCHLY to everyone who came along and I hugely appreciate the efforts you all made to come to my Manor and it is flattering and ‘humbling’ (I’m really sorry, I didn’t want to use that word because it is so clichéd but I guess it sort of does cover what I want to convey) that so many truly talented and outstanding Investors and Traders think my WheelieBash as being something that is worth their while being at - that really inspires me and encourages me to keep the whole WheelieDealer thing chugging along as it is and improving things where I can so that it continues to help People and to provide me with countless benefits (not least having access to such wonderful People) and doing this in a way that fits with the time I have available and without being too stressful for me (I don’t do stress !!). It is equally inspiring (OK, probably more inspiring !!) to have plenty of Newer Investors coming along and it was very much with these People in mind that the whole WD thing was started.
Here is a taster of the Day with the ‘Group Photo’ and my plan is that later in the Week I will start tweaking the Website and part of that will be introducing an ‘Events’ Page which I intend to be where I put details of future WheelieBashes and any ‘Meet-up’ Events I will be organising (like the Duxford one we did back in the Summer) and I will also put on Events where I will be attending and also Events that are to do with the kind of Stocks I like to Invest in and which Readers might find worth going to. As a starter on that Page, I will put up loads of Photos that Steve Holdsworth (@sholdsworth1963 on Twitter) took at the Bash and if you can’t wait you can look at his Tweet Feed where you should be able to see the Photos. I am pretty sure I know who the People are so I will try to identify the People in the Group Photo when I do the new ‘Events’ Page.
Oh, and we found these two suspect looking characters intermingling with the Group and I wondered if anyone had an idea who they were. One of them seemed to be extremely keen on Gin & Tonics it was observed…….(they clearly were nothing to do with our Group as they were far too young and gorgeous !!)
I nearly forgot to mention - I dunno if you remember me saying a while back that I was as Deaf as a Proverbial because I seemed to have a Waxed-up Ear and that has been dragging on for Months. Anyway, by some bizarre miracle; OK, it was no miracle - it was me literally pouring Otex into my Ear for 3 Nights on the trot when I went to Bed. After the ensuing Nuclear Explosions in my Ear, to the extent that I nearly jumped out of my skin at one moment with my heart racing because the Pops & Bangs were so loud, it clearly did the trick and my hearing is perfectly normal again. It is a huge relief I can tell you and the big advantage was that it fixed itself just in time for the Bash and I reckon that if this had not happened then it would have been a real nuisance for me and would have been quite difficult to hear what some people were saying.
The big shock to me today is just how loud I have been having the Telly Volume set at and my Neighbours must be utterly fed up with how Loud my Radio has been blaring out !!
What a belter of a Week for me - it was particularly strong on Wednesday when I was down the Pub with Paul Hunt (@PaulHun87372422 on the Tweets - I think that’s his Bank Account Number !!) and there is really nothing better than dossing in the Pub all day and pretending to ‘work’ only to come home and find you have made a stack on your Portfolio !! Over everything (except the Income Portfolio) I was up 1.7% and that is a massive Week for a Low-Risk, boring, do nothing, kind of Portfolio like mine. Interesting as well that my Overseas Unit Trusts did nothing - the gains were all from my own Stocks and it was particularly jumps on GFRD, FA. and WATR which gave the boost, as well as a reasonable Gain on the FTSE100 Short I closed out (see the ‘Trades‘ page).
It is a huge psychological boost that after Last Week I am back in the Money for 2018 after having seen my Portfolio dip slightly negative for a bit - fingers crossed I can add to this by Year End although with Autumn having a very dubious record and all this Brexit silliness going on I suspect it might be far from easy. At least in the main my Portfolio has Quality Stocks and many are very undervalued (I was tweeting earlier today about MPAC which will probably have an unwinding of an Inventory Build in H2 which should mean the Cash rises by Year End and in effect the current Market Cap of just under £28m is the same as the Cash by Year End most likely - this means there is nothing in for the Business itself which is probably going to do around 12p a Share in Adjusted EPS and the 40 Acres of Land in Buckinghamshire - it is truly cheap) so I feel quite well placed if things go my way - but of course we can always get surprises.
As always I will be alert to any need to put on an Index Short and I am in no particular mood to buy anything - although I am getting more serious about buying some Vodafone VOD for my Income Portfolio which is looking insanely cheap with a Dividend Yield of 8% - but it does still look to be falling which makes me a bit hesitant.
Related to what I just said about MPAC, I am aware that much of what I put on the Website is about Strategy and the Markets at the moment etc. and many of the Blogs are of an ‘Educational’ nature and about Portfolio Management etc. - so what I am trying to say is that I don’t really talk about Stocks all that much on the Website. So, my point here is that if you only read my Website and don’t look at Twitter then you are hugely missing out on the whole WD ‘Thing’ - I talk constantly about Stocks on the Tweets and I am always suggesting interesting Stocks for Readers to look into and every morning I go through the RNS List and I tweet out the ones I find interesting and usually I give my view on whether or not they are worth considering for a buy etc. In the Evening I am Tweeting out various things I have spotted on the Indexes and the Charts of my Stocks and this stuff seems to be liked a lot by my Twitter Followers.
So what I am saying in a ridiculously long-winded and drawn out way is that if you don’t follow me on Twitter then it might be worth getting yourself a Twitter Account (I tend to access it using my Samsung Smartfone and it works really well via this device but of course you can access it via Tablets and PCs, Laptops etc. and it is pretty easy to use once you have the basics) but if you don’t have/want a Tweet Account then you can see my Twitter Timeline on the Homepage and one of the tweaks to the Website that I am considering is to have a Page which can be clicked on to find my Twitter Feed straightaway - we shall see - it depends on space really.
Another way you can see my Tweets is by going to Google and typing in ‘Tweets by @wheeliedealer’ and they just come up - it is really good. You can do this on a Fone obviously and that is a pretty neat way fo getting them without havinjg to do a Twitter Account.
Another spin-off from the WheelieBash is that I was able to discuss my thinking around a possible Podcast idea that I have been hinting at in Blogs recently and on the Tweets. It looks like it can work although I have some stuff to sort out and I want to get on with the Website Revamp Project first and I will focus on the Podcast once this is done. My current thinking after some chats yesterday is to do an occasional Podcast (I don’t want to tie myself down to a Daily, Weekly or even Monthly slot as it will really be a case of when I am in the mood and depending on time available etc.) and the format would be that I call up an Investing Mate on Skype and have a conversation with him or her and it will be very informal and unstructured and we will discuss things like how we see the overall Market at that point in time and any Stocks we particularly like and how our Portfolios are doing and suchlike - and the Big Benefit to Readers/Listeners would be that it is like Me and a Mate chatting on the Phone and others being able to snoop in on our Call - I think it could be really popular and successful.
I dunno if you remember but Paul Scott did some superb Podcasts a while ago which sort of followed this kind of Format and of course @Conkers3 has some superb Podcast Interviews on his Website which you can find here:
…and I don’t want to have the formal structure of these Interviews but I suspect that with our organic and hopefully very natural Format we will veer off into related discussions around things like how many Stocks we hold and whether or not we do TopChopping or stuff like this. My thinking at the moment is that they might last about 30 Minutes or around this time - perhaps if we are flowing nicely then they might stretch to 45 minutes but I don’t want them being too long (or too short !!). I partly got the idea from the Podcasts I sometimes do with Justin of Sharepickers/Vox and I find that on those we have occasionally got into a really good flow and rambled around several Stocks and Listeners seem to really enjoy these but I feel that the time available is too short really and doing my own Podcasts could be quite fun and not too hard to do, although perhaps when I do one I won’t put out a Midweek Blog that Week - we shall see, it depends on how I feel and the time available obviously.
One thing that is holding me back is the Techncial aspects and if any Readers can help by putting a Comment below or Tweeting me or Emailing me (firstname.lastname@example.org) or something then that would be brilliant and save me a lot of hunting around. I can host the Podcast Files on Soundcloud for Free and I can link to them from my Website so that side is pretty much easy to sort and I am thinking of a Page on the Website that would be dedicated to the Podcasts.
What I would like inspiration on is how to be able to record the conversation easily in the right format (I think it needs to be MP3 for Soundcloud but maybe Readers can help with that anyway) using my Fone and it is quite likely that we can just do it ‘in one take’ but if we need to Edit it then if there is some sort of Free Software (you know me, “tighter than a Scotsman” as someone told me last night !!) whereby I can just quickly and easy chop a chunk out or something that would be brilliant (no doubt it will be full of accidental profanities on the first take !!). As ever I just want Quick, Easy and Cheap (like my Women !!). Oh, I’ve got a Samsung S5 Smartfone running Android I think, so if there is an App I can use with that then that would be ideal.
Anyway, if we can sort out the Technical bit easily then I have the first Victim kindly lined up to do the first Podcast Chat and I then have several great People who have said they would like to do such a Chat with me so perhaps we can get the thing going quite nicely. One thought I had but obviously it is some way down the track (hey, what’s the rush? WheelieDealer ain’t going nowhere !!) was that maybe I could have a Chat with a fairly new Investor and we could go through his/her Portfolio and I could highlight any dodgy Stocks and which ones might do really well etc. - that could be really good and no doubt Listeners would be ‘Mad for it !!’.
But remember, this is just an Idea and it might not happen but it does look more and more like I am going to do it (I even have a rather obvious name for it lined up and my mate has been working on a nifty Logo !!).
Well, there is Good News and Bad News……….the Good News is that as I mentioned above I have decided to crack on with revamping the Website and making it easier to find stuff and an inevitable consequence leading from this is that I won’t be able to do a Mid-Week Blog for a few Weeks - but with the Markets as Dull as they are and with all the troubles that could potentially hit us this is probably a good time to do not much at all on the Stocks and this gives me the opportunity to change the Website for the better. This means that I will be moving stuff around and I will be revisiting the Text on the Website as much of it is out of date (like a mouldy yoghurt) and needs tarting up - as usual I will announce Changes on Twitter and in the ‘Changes List’ on the Homepage as they go live on the Website you Peeps see. I am quite enthused about making these changes because I actually look at the Webiste a lot myself and it will be easier for me to find things as well !!
Last Week I put out a short Blog about the importance of thinking about your Portfolio Returns and your Stock Returns in terms of Pecentages rather than Pound Notes - it is a really crucial concept to grasp and if you do this it will help you particularly as your Portfolio grows over the Years ahead.
Oh, I nearly forgot this as well (good job I scribble down a quick list of items I want to cover in these Weekend Blogs !!), but I updated the ‘Weekly Performance’ Text on the Homepage for August and there is a lot there about Strategy and stuff as well. You have to scroll down a lot but hopefully when I get on with the Website Revamp this ‘Weekly Performance’ bit will get its own Page.
First off I want to highlight the Videos and stuff I recorded in the past and you can find loads of these on the Homepage. I get lots of People telling me they discovered my Website and Twitter from finding these YouTube things first and I suspect there are many People who read these Blogs but haven’t seen the Videos. Anyway, here is a taster but as I said you can find more Links on the Homepage:
This Week’s Blogs from the Dark Lagoon are about TopSlicing and this Final Part has links to the earlier bits at the bottom of it:
Right, we have finally made it to the Charts bit !!
Pound vs. Dollar
I have been going on about this on Twitter in recent Days and it could be highly significant - in essence it looks like the Pound has broken-out of its Downtrend Channel and this probably suggests it will stabilise around current Levels or perhaps start to move up.
As always the Charts I show are ScreenShots from the superb ShareScope Software I use and if you have a half-decent Charting Website or Package then you should be able to set-up similar Chart Indicators etc. Oh, if you click on the Charts they should grow bigger so you can see more detail.
We have the Daily Candlesticks Chart of the Pound vs. Dollar below and the key bit is where my Yellow Circle is the Pound broke out of the Downtrend Line which is Black and pointed at with my Black Arrow. Note also that it is above the Blue Line (Blue Arrow) which is the 200 Day Moving Average. There is a bit of Support where my Red Arrow is at about 1.28 and then down where my Green Arrow is at about 1.266.
This is particularly interesting because the Weakness in the Pound (note the Pound has done a similar thing against the Euro) from recent Months has most likely been a consequence of the Brexit Fiasco but this strengthening of the last few Weeks is perhaps suggesting that the Market (‘The Wisdom of Crowds’) thinks that some sort of Brexit Deal will get done and Forex Traders etc. are more optimistic. It is very interesting and something to watch but its consequences for Stocks are unclear to me. The usual pattern to some extent has been for a Stronger Pound to cause the FTSE100 to fall back but I suspect there is some element of downwards pressure on UK Stocks that has been caused by the Brexit Concerns and if it seems that a Brexit Deal will happen then perhaps Stocks could rise at the same time as the Pound does. It is not clear cut in any way and maybe Smaller Stocks like in the FTSE250 will benefit more.
I caused a bit of a stir on Twitter the other night because I said the FTSE100 could either go Up or Down - which I have to agree is not the most useful kind of thing I could have said !!
What I was getting at was that the FTSE100 is in a state now where it had a big drop down and it is going Sideways in a very tight Range which is highlighted in my Pink Box on the Chart below between 7220 at the bottom and 7325 at the top - and how it ‘resolves’ will tell us which way it is likely to go after this Range gets broken free of. So if it goes through 7325 then the FTSE100 is going to recover after the recent sharp drop but if it drops down through 7220 then the Sideways Range was really a ‘Ledge’ and it would have dropped off its perch !!
A Drop downwards would bring Support from the Zones where my Pink Circle is and could go as low as 6866 maybe. The great thing about this is that when that Range resolves we can go Long on a break upwards or Short on a Break downwards.
My Black Arrow is pointing at a Hammer Candle which formed up on Tuesday last Week - it could be that this is marking a Bottom for now. Note also how the 50 Day Moving Average Line (Dark Blue Wiggler) is heading down towards the 200 Day MA (Lighter Blue and Wiggling) - this could be a ‘Death Cross’ and not really what we want as it might imply Weeks and Months of weakness.
In the bottom window below we have the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the FTSE100 Daily - on a Reading of RSI 37 it is low still and note it is rising - this is a good setup if it can breakout of that tight Range I mentioned earlier to the upside but we need to wait for that Range to resolve.
Now we have the Weekly Candles - my Black Arrow is pointing to a small almost Hammer sort of Candle and after the big drop that could be a Reversal Candle. Note also that it is sort of a Bullish Harami 2 Week Pattern.
We have the FTSE250 Daily Chart below and where my Black Arrow is we had a nice Hammer Candle with a Low at 20050 which must hold as Support and it is highly likely this Hammer marks a Reversal after the prior move down and it could move up from here. 20400 is Key Resistance now to get up through and then the Green Line (Green Arrow) is Downtrend Resistance to break through. As with the FTSE100 the Moving Averages are lining up a ‘Death Cross’ - we might be able to avoid it if the Markets get a lot more Bullish very quickly - however, I am not convinced this will happen as the Brexit Discussions will drag on to at least Mid-November and the Political machinations in the UK will be extreme no doubt.
On that subject, I just can’t see a ‘People’s Vote’ happening - only Remainers want it and the Labour Party is much more likely to want to do everything they can to cause a General Election (which in essence means voting against the Government however sensible their Proposals may or may not be) and a Re-run of the Referendum would only help Theresa May stay in power so why on earth would Labour do it? Of course we have the Political Party Conferences in coming Weeks and this could cause some action if the Leaders come under threat and clearly both May and Corbyn are on borrowed time.
The US Indexes look largely Bullish still so I won’t show them this week - I am timing out now and pretty tired as it has been a busy weekend for me !!
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