If you follow me on Twitter (and I suspect the vast majority of Readers do and if you don’t then you are probably missing out on a lot !! Note, you don’t need a Twitter Account as such and if you just do a Google search for ‘Tweets by @wheeliedealer’ then you should just get them magically appear on your Browser thing), you will most likely have spotted that I managed to get to the Mello Event in Derby on Friday (after getting lost for 2 hours mainly because my Directions were spot on but at the key moment I drove straight past the venue and then suddenly found myself on ‘Brian Clough Way’ and I figured I was far too near Nottingham for my liking !!) and I was still a bit flustered and stressed from the painful drive so I was totally caught unawares when it was suddenly announced by David Stredder (@carmensfella) that I had won the Award for the ‘Most Influential Twitter Account’ and I was presented with the heaviest piece of Glass ever known to man by Aston Girl (@Reb40) as you can see in the pics below (by the way, the bloke in the blue checked shirt is Steve Markus (@smarkus) who is a bit of a Tweeting Legend himself):
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I’m really tight for time tonight as the MotoGP from Circuit of the Americas in Texas is running as I type, so I am not sure how much I can cover but there is a pile of Admin type stuff I need to run through first and then I need to flag some concerns I have about the prospects for the US Markets and I also need to carry on the Forensic Analysis of a difficult FTSE100 Short Trade I had running last Week (see my ‘Trades’ page for full details on this and some initial thoughts about what I did not do particularly well and how I can improve things).
I attended the UK Investor Show in Westminster yesterday and met up with so many people who I have met previously or who are people I regularly chat to on Twitter and of course many Readers of this Website etc. I really enjoyed the Event although I didn’t get the chance to see many of the Stands and stuff but I did listen to Mark Slater’s Speech but in many ways it was pretty much old news to me and sadly this time he did not really come up with any new interesting Stocks to look at - in fact he was a bit of a tease because he said his Funds had been buying into 2 Stocks lately but I don’t think he told us which ones they were (although of course it makes sense for him to keep quiet about this if he is still building his Stake).
This has been such an unusual Year with what are normally some of the best Months being so poor. After such a miserable start I was extremely pleased to recover 1.3% across my Portfolio last Week (this is UK and Spreadbets and my 2 Overseas Unit Trusts) and as a result I am now down just under 1.0% for 2018 so far and I am using all my Lucky Charms to try to get back into Positive Territory very soon. I guess if I just leave my Portfolio alone and resist the urge to tinker with it I will have much more chance of achieving this !!
On that sentiment, I mentioned a few Days ago on Twitter how I had done one of my rare checks on my iWeb Income Portfolio and was rather pleased to see it was up something like 1.7% on 2018 so far - I was really surprised by this and it is a bit worrying that the Portfolio which gets no love and attention from me (in fact, I have done no Trades in that Portfolio this Year so far) is up in a difficult Year whereas the Portfolios I put considerable effort into are down !! Oh the irony !!
These Markets are still all over the place despite me managing to squeeze out a tiny gain last Week of 0.4% on my Portfolio - after so many poor Weeks this was a welcome respite but I am really not convinced it is part of a trend of gains and after big falls in the US on Friday, I wonder if it was just a short relief from the ‘Death by a Thousand Cuts’ Market we have had to endure since the start of 2018. I mentioned this on a Tweet a few Days ago and I might even have misheard it but Bloomberg TV one night were saying that this was the worst start to a Year since 1929 - and that was the year of the Wall Street Crash !! (I am assuming they mean the US Markets).
In due course I will look at the Index Charts and try to make sense of what is happening but my overall stance remains the same that I am in no rush to buy much and am just happy to maintain my current Portfolio as it is with the odd few things that I wouldn’t mind dumping if the opportunity arises - what I mean by this is that if something unexpectedly jumps up then I will be looking to sell into the move. I utterly hate selling things ‘at the bottom’ and I find with patience if you hold Quality Stocks then your time will come. Needless to say I will be monitoring the Charts very closely and if I see a need to Short an Index or two in order to Hedge my Portfolio then that is where my focus will be.
I’ve found this Weekend quite frustrating because I really want to crack on with my Garden and planting Seeds and stuff but the weather has been either peeing down or like today just flippin’ nippy and with Superbike Racing on the Telly it wasn’t really much of a contest. I feel sorry for all those People who have gone away for the Weekend with Kids only to find their planned Break a bit of a washout. Welcome to Britain……
I guess Last Week was a typically soggy one for the Markets with the Bank Holiday and the whole tone of 2018 so far being pretty painful for Bulls. Thankfully my Portfolio ‘only’ lost 0.5% for the Week but it is frustrating how difficult it is proving to make headway and with another Bank Holiday in the coming Week, I don’t have high hopes for much of a change. I think there are US Non-Farm Payroll Numbers on Friday 6th April and that might cause some excitement to finish off the Week. I have a small Long Spreadbet on the S&P500 still running but I will be looking at this closely on Thursday Night with a view to closing it before those Jobs Numbers.
I’m always totally thrown by these Clock Changes - I spend most of the day with no idea what time it is and all of the Clocks in WheelieTowers seem to tell me different things - and the confusion isn’t helped by some updating automatically whereas others don’t - hopefully in a few days I will have figured out what is going on !!
One upshot of this is that some ‘normality’ is being returned with regards to the US Markets and what time they Open and Close - in theory they should Open at 2.30pm BST and Close at 9pm. After the drops on Friday maybe it would be better if they just stayed shut !! Last Week Blimey, that was a painful one - after being nicely in positive territory for 2018 so far I got a right kicking last week and my Portfolio ended up down 3.5% on the Week and this means that I am now down 2% on my Portfolio for 2018 - not a situation I like at all. The hit last week was exacerbated particularly by Sprue Aegis SPRP coming out with the News on Friday that BRK has terminated their Agreement early and that SPRP could get stuck with some Stock - there is a lack of clarity on the impact but it whacked the Stock hard and it is a big Position for me. Annoying, but I am not going to panic as the move to new Suppliers is the key to a much improved performance for SPRP but it is frustrating that yet another hurdle has been placed in their way.
I don’t know how long this Blog will be because I spent all of Saturday at the Master Investor show and today we had the start of the 2018 MotoGP Season with the races from Qatar so I am feeling quite worn out and have square eyes from looking at screens !!
There are a few things I want to cover before looking at some Index Charts and the main thing being the upshots of a long chat I had with Richard Wolanski, the CFO of Avation AVAP, at the Show (I hold Shares in AVAP).
Last week turned out very nice for me and I am really happy to be nicely back in Profit for 2018 after a Gain of 2.1% for the Week. I updated the ‘Weekly Performance’ Numbers for February on the Homepage a couple of Days ago and the story of the Year so far is very clearly shown there with February being a really tough Month but with how my Portfolio has recovered and with the strength in the US Markets particularly on Friday, it looks like we might be in for a slightly nicer period. As we will see in a bit, the Charts are pretty decent looking.
There has been some Media coverage today about The Chancellor’s upcoming ‘Spring Statement’ (I think it is on Tuesday) where he is due to give an overview of how the Country’s Finances are shaping up and it seems to be the narrative that Tax Receipts are better than forecast and this could mean that ‘Austerity’ (what a joke, there has been no Austerity and Government Spending has risen every year since the Credit Crunch) may be eased, but Spreadsheet Phil (or ‘Philly no mates’ as the Brexiteer Tory MPs call him) won’t be easing the Spending Taps until the Autumn Budget - but if he does ease up then that might be supportive for the UK Economy. Something needs doing because clearly the High Street in particular is really feeling the pinch with large ticket Items like Cars not selling.
2018 has not started all that easily - after another tough Week my Portfolio was down 1.4% and again for 2018 it has dipped slightly into negative territory - although so far nowhere near as bad as it was a few Weeks ago (it would be lovely if it can bounce now and judging by the Charts that looks possible although I am not sure it can be maintained for long).
I am overall a bit nervous about these Markets - from a very quick look tonight I get the view that the US looks better but the UK and Europe Markets don’t look all that happy - I will address these points in detail later but the essence of my worries around Europe and UK are that we are very near Bearish ‘Death Crosses’ on the 50/200 Day Moving Averages and if we get those it could be telling us there is trouble ahead.
This Winter has been such a drag - being a Wheelchair user I really don’t get on with Cold and Wet and the best solution I find is to go into my Winter Hibernation mode and try to ride it out - but this year it is definitely been testing my resilience. The idea of a particularly Cold Snap isn’t something I find even slightly appealing and it looks like a week to hunker down and perhaps I won’t have any excuses now to not get on with reading that Robbie Burns ‘Trade like a Shark’ book……..
Last week was very uneventful for my Stocks - the UK and Spreadbet stuff was up a tiny fraction and the mainly US Unit Trusts were down a tad so the net result was a minuscule gain - but at least it paid for my Pub Lunch on Friday. So a Flat week then. |
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