Over the last week things seem to have turned pretty bullish again with the Major Indexes, which is very surprising to me with the Brexit Vote not far away (about 3.5 weeks now) and with June being the 2nd worst Month of the Year. It is hard to be sure if this strength can continue especially with regard to the FTSE100 as the Oil charts are starting to show hints that a pullback may be in order - perhaps we will see some early bullishness turn to bearishness as we get nearer the Vote.
Whilst chatting away with Ian Smith (@GrindertraderUK) at the Master Investor Show, somehow we got onto the subject of Level2 and Ian casually slipped into the conversation something along the lines of saying Level2 only gives you pretty much the same timing information that you can get by reading small timeframe Candlesticks - I got the impression 15 minute or 30 minute Candles would do the trick.
Well, we are pretty much One Month away from the EU ‘In’ or ‘Out’ Referendum on 23rd June 2016. I have mentioned many times how I expect the Markets to struggle in the run up to the Vote and I think the Best Case Scenario for Bulls is that the Markets just tread water and go sideways. In my view, it is more likely that we get some falls before the Vote, simply because I expect a ‘Buyers Strike’ where there will be a lack of people willing to commit Money on the Long Side unless Prices are Super Cheap - which obviously implies the Prices will need to fall.
Time to have a sniff around the Indexes as usual. I was in the marvellous ‘Zaman’ Curry Emporium in Datchet late on Friday night and I had a quick shuftie at my ADVFN app on my Fone to see how the US had closed - and the DOW was down a chunk and had made a new 1 month Low - so a Downtrend Channel is starting to make itself clear. For this reason, I will look at the US first, when I get onto the Charts bit.
Back on Saturday 23rd April 2016, I dragged my carcase to the Business Design Centre in Islington, London, for the Master Investor Show. I have been rolling up to this event for probably more than 10 years now and it has sort of become an Annual Pilgrimage - almost to the point where not going would probably be extremely unlucky and hit my Portfolio hard !!
This blog runs through the value to me of attending Master Investor and other Shows and some ideas on how Readers can build Networks of like minded Investors/Traders.
Last week was pretty soggy but it looks like we will get a bounce over the next few days and all the Major Indexes are suggesting this will happen. However, May is notoriously a weak month and with the Brexit Vote coming into view (June 23rd), I doubt we can make strong headway and the best scenario is probably a Sideways Range for a bit.
If you listened to the Podcast I recorded with Justin last week (if you have not had the pain but are truly into masochism, there is a link at the top of the Homepage), I talked about how I saw the Brexit Vote playing out with regard to the Markets - in essence, I see weakness in the weeks running up to the Vote and then a small bounce if we vote to leave the tyranny of the EU and a huge powerful Rally if we vote to stay in - sadly I suspect the latter will happen. However, any Rally will probably falter around the Autumn as September and October are often difficult Months.
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You may have noticed that I bought some Golden Prospect Precious Metals Investment Trust (Epic Code GPM) yesterday via a Spreadbet at 36.5p and I just wanted to do a quick Blog to show my thinking to Readers. I will not do an extravaganza here because I am tight for time and to be honest I don’t think it is necessary as the Investment Case is pretty simple - in one word, Gold.
Blimey, start of May already - a third of the Year gone and we are heading towards Summer. As usual on a Sunday Night, I will have a run through some key Charts after first consulting the Almanac. I suspect the FTSE100 Weekly will tell us a fair bit about the most likely direction and I know that Gold has done a very bullish looking Breakout. Don’t forget the UK Markets are closed tomorrow for a Bank Holiday but I believe the US will be trading as usual. I notice from the Almanac that Japan is closed on both Tuesday 3rd, Wednesday 4th and Thursday 5th of May - at least that will stop the NIKKEI falling for a bit !!
According to the UK Stockmarket Almanac 2016, the coming Week has been Up for 66% of Years with a positive Average Return of 0.5% - so it looks to be mildly positive usually.
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