I’m really quite enjoying the Christmas Break so far this year. I’m not really sure why, but it seems like we have had several Weeks now of not all that much going on and it has been a lot more relaxing and stress free than the normal course of the Year and having to negotiate the Markets. I don’t see myself as someone who gets particularly stressed and worried about the Markets (except when we get those occasional periods where the Markets drop sharply and it is best to just totally avoid them especially during the Trading Day), but when we go into the Seasonal Period it sort of feels like some sort of subtle weight is lifted from my shoulders.
Thinking about it I wouldn’t see it as stress - it is more like a need to be aware of the Markets and for me to be checking my ADVFN app on my Fone from time to time during the Day that is removed. In addition to this, even when the Markets are open lately the Trading seems very subdued and stuff hasn’t really been moving around much - perhaps this is yet another function of the very low levels of volatility that we have been treated to for much of this past Year.
When the Markets are open there is a need for me to grab my Fone as soon as I wake up at 8am and to power up my 7” Tablet and to start looking through the RNS Announcements on Investegate.com to see if any of my Stocks have put out relevant News and also to see if any other Quality Stocks have been issuing important News I need to keep abreast of. Clearly when the Markets are shut, like today on Xmas Eve, there is no need to do this so that is a big driver of my day’s activities and demands removed.
On top of this, during the Day I tend to look at my ADVFN app on the Fone probably every hour or so and apart from just seeing how Blue or Red my Screen looks, I am really thinking about how the Prices are moving in the context of their Chart Patterns and stuff and if I see what looks like an important move then I am using the Charts on the app to see if something significant is taking place. Obviously I am looking for Breakouts and particular Candlestick Patterns etc. All of this activity sets a ‘rhythm’ to my Day and of course it means that a large degree of Time discipline is imposed on me by the Markets - such things as the US Market open at 2.30pm UK Time and when the Markets Close etc. all create Time ‘Milestones’ that dictate a lot of my Day. So for many of the Days around Xmas and New Year that pressure is totally lifted and it feels much more like Saturday and Sunday and it is nice to have the freedom this brings. It is time to actually think about things free from pressures.
Of course I say this every Year, but without doubt this Year has utterly blasted by - it seems like just a few Weeks ago I was sitting in the Garden of the White Hart along with a large group of Fellow Twitterati and several people who read my Website regularly as we partook of the Fun and Frivolities of ‘Wheelie’s Summer Bash’ - but of course that was actually back in September.
Upon reflection it has actually been a pretty decent Year for me. 2016 was a bit of a swine with my mistakes with Hedging causing a lot of avoidable Pain (ha ha, it might have been ‘avoidable’ but I certainly didn’t manage to avoid it !!) and in my Personal Life side of things my Dad was very ill all year and he snuffed it back in early December and of course this put a cloud over Xmas, especially because the Funeral was not until early January. So I guess with all that going on, 2016 was setting a very low bar and 2017 almost couldn’t have failed to be a better Year.
Pretty soon I will bash out a ‘Scores on the Doors’ Blog (these are now officially known as the WheelieSOD Blogs) to give a full and detailed breakdown of how my Portfolios have performed over the year, but as things stand with a few days left to close out the Year, it looks pretty good. As always my Spreadbet Portfolio has underperformed where I would like it to be but I know most of the reasons for this and I will run through these in the SOD. My Income Portfolio has suffered this Year from the malaise in the Big Mega Cap Divvy Stocks but I suspect this is a temporary thing and these Stocks look pretty oversold to me now - so I expect a good recovery in the New Year. It looks like the Income Portfolio Total Return will be a few Percent which is of course below the 7% I would like on average but it is in the nature of any Portfolio that we get fluctuations from Year to Year - I will give full details as usual (on that note, if you look under the Category ‘Scores on the Doors’ on my Blog Page you should be able to see ones I have written from the last 3 years.)
It is now 8 Years since I ‘retired’ and it is quite gobsmacking how fast that amount of time has gone by - working in the Fujitsu Office in Staines seems so vivid in my memory and I can even remember the Projects I was working on many years before that - but of course I am extremely happy to have escaped the ‘Rat Race’ and there really is nothing better than Freedom and being my own boss. With the Health challenges I face on a Daily basis (if you are new to reading my blurb you may not have twigged that I am a Paraplegic Wheelchair User and paralysed from the Chest down), it is especially handy to have such control over my ‘Working’ Day and to be able to prioritise things as I see fit. Fortunately my health is very stable and I am in generally very good shape but it is in the nature of my condition that it can be a right effin’ pain in the bum sometimes - so having no official Job to set my priorities for me is a big boon.
2017 has entailed me putting a huge amount of focus on my ‘Work/Life’ Balance though - I have hugely enjoyed doing the Website and all my Interactions on Twitter of recent Years but I made a very conscious decision this year to pull back from Twitter and to try and manage my time so that I get the hierarchy of what is most important and needs my attention in the correct order. In essence there is my own Personal Life, there is my own essential Investment Research Life and then thirdly there is my WheelieDealer Life and the simple fact is that my own Personal Life (and in particular this means the Health aspects I have to contend with) has to have the Number 1 priority and then my Investment Research activities for my own Money Making have to come second and then this in turn feeds a huge amount of what I do with my WheelieDealer head on. I suspect 90% of what I Tweet out is just me ‘thinking out loud’ and is very much to do with my own Investing tasks.
I am convinced these are the right set of Priorities and that is the correct Order and I am proceeding on that basis. It is unfortunate for myself because I am finding that I just do massively less on Tweets these days (funnily enough I was explaining this to an Investing Buddy recently and they said they hadn’t noticed I had pulled back !!) and I think it is a function of having a growing base of Followers that means I am fully occupied just responding to ‘Notifications’ and Direct Messages and I now rarely get any time to look through my Feed. This is a shame because I used to really enjoy that level of interaction but the simple fact is I just cannot spare the time and I need to be disciplined and keep in mind my conflicting priorities. I find I can easily spend perhaps 3 hours a day just replying to Notifications and Direct Messages - so you can see the challenge. It is a high class problem though and I am managing to deal with it at the moment but I do wonder what will happen if I gain much more of a Following - but we will have to deal with such a hurdle if and when it happens.
I am very sorry if this means the stuff you see from me on Tweets is not quite what it was in the past, but I really don’t have any choice about this and it is important for all of us if I can manage things in a balanced way because it will be of no use to anyone if I get fed up with doing it and decide to stop everything - that is certainly not my intention so I need to be on top of things and make sure I am in control.
Of course it is impossible to know the Future with 100% certainty but we can have a stab at what is most likely to take place and I think it is important to do this in order to help with Positioning in my Portfolio. As I see things at the moment I don’t feel particularly worried or alarmed about what the Markets will most likely treat us to in 2018. I suspect we will have a proper Pullback at some point, you know, a Correction or whatever of perhaps 6% or so - we are long overdue one and it would be a healthy thing really to take out some of the ‘Heat’ and complacency which is clearly in the Markets.
I see a lot of commentary that Markets are overvalued and suchlike but I am not really convinced by this. I think the NASDAQ (US Tech Index) is pretty punchily valued and certain Stocks within it are just crazy overvalued but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Stocks are going to Crash. From my experience of a couple of Decades now, I have found that serious Drops (i.e. proper Bear Markets) tend to occur at the same time as Global Recessions and when you look at the current state of the Global Economy I think we can say that things look much better than they have for any time since the Credit Crunch Crisis in 2008.
With Trump’s deregulation moves and the Tax Cuts and Tax on Repatriated Cash changes, the US Economy seems to be humming along nicely and if anything it could very well speed up. With the US being the World’s largest Economy, if they do well this will drag most Western Economies along with it. Already we are seeing Europe looking better than it has for years and years and despite all the Political challenges which are all pervasive around the Globe, in general Economies are looking very good. In the UK we have challenges which really result from the Low Pound following the Brexit Vote but the Pound is recovering and I expect this effect to lessen during the course of 2018 and as the Brexit Talks go in favour of the UK - ignore the ‘Remain’ obsessives, they are Wrong on everything and we will most likely see the UK Economy pick up nicely in coming Months.
With such a positive backdrop it is hard to see Stocks falling off a cliff. In addition to this, Interest Rates globally are likely to remain pretty low with them increasing the fastest in the US but this will be at a “measured pace” and it is unlikely to cause too much upset. In the UK we might see a Rate Rise during 2018 which would help the Pound in its rehabilitation but I doubt we will see much action here. In Europe I doubt we will get any Rate Hikes and of course Japan is just bizarre in every way thinkable so I expect Monetary Policy will remain very slack there - although there is no way I would invest any of my Cash in Japan when there is such an unknown Monetary Experiment going on - the potential for more trouble over there is very clear. Something that has crossed my mind is that although so many ‘Talking Heads’ go on about rising Interest Rates and a tighter Monetary Policy, in reality even if some Countries like the US are changing their stance, there are others around the World like Japan and Europe which are still keeping Policy extremely loose - so it could simply be that the Baton is being passed around the Central Banks and in fact the overall environment remains pumped up with Liquidity which is supportive of Stocks and depressing on Bond Yields (so Bond Prices stay high - remember they are inverse).
Another positive is that it looks as if the Bitcoin Bubble might be popping - it seems to be that it is only really Retail Punters who are getting all potty about this and that is a positive because it means that Contagion to other Markets is likely to be pretty limited if it has any impact. However, if the Bubble keeps inflating and Institutions do start to get seriously involved, then that might be a serious threat for the future - I don’t think this will happen though because the Institutions seem pretty clued up to how silly it all is.
That is my current thinking on the Markets and how 2018 can pan out and on that basis I am really not going to change my Strategy/Stance much from that which I have been pursuing of late anyway. Partly due to the likelihood that the Pound is going to recover, I am seriously thinking about selling all or part of my Technology and Health Unit Trusts - these are mainly US Focused and therefore if the Pound recovers against the Dollar then the value when translated back to Pounds will be lower - so it might not be wise to hold Overseas Assets unless they are Currency Hedged. I also would like to lower my Overall Exposure a bit or at least to get it back to where it was at the start of 2017 - this means I will build my Cash up which is also something I would like to do. I haven’t fully decided yet and if anything I am leaning towards halving both of my Unit Trusts.
The other thing that has been buzzing my Brain is around how Housebuilder Shares tend to do very well in the First Quarter of each Calendar Year - so I am toying with the idea of buying more Galliford Try GFRD and perhaps even buying into another Housebuilder like Bovis Homes BVS. I also hold McCarthy & Stone MCS but this one has had some issues around the Government’s Policy on Ground Rents and I am a bit reluctant to buy more. Another addition that I am thinking about is buying into Hostelworld HSW - I did a Blog on these recently and I like it a lot and the Chart looks very like it will ‘Breakout’ to a new All Time High soon - there is a nice Triangle Pattern which is squeezing the Price. I need to sell some Stocks ideally to make space but that is not so easy…….
I recently got asked by Dale Pinkert @ForexStopHunter if I would like to be interviewed on his regular Webinar which he does. Obviously I accepted and it is scheduled that I will appear on the one which takes place on Monday 8th January at 1pm UK Time and goes on to 2.30pm. In order to test the Technology, I got everything set up and I watched and listened to the Webinar which they did a few days ago and I was pleasantly surprised to find that it was not all about Forex and even then the methods that they were discussing with regards to how they read the Charts were very similar to how I do things with Stocks using Daily Candlesticks and Breakouts and Support and Resistance and stuff - it was a really good session.
These Webinars go out live and I don’t think they are recorded - although I will check on that and if they are I will make sure a link is provided. Anyway, to watch the Webinar you can do it via a Browser on your PC by clicking this link and I think if you enter the ’9-Digit ID’ of 468-781-395 and your Email Address then you should be able to Register for it (I found that I got an Email back from them and I had to click a link within it to get things working). I would suggest doing this some time before the Webinar (maybe at least a day before ideally) and from memory I think Dale will be organising a Webinar on the 27th or 28th at 1pm:
Alternatively you can access it via a Tablet by going to the Play Store or the Apple Store and looking for the ‘GoToWebinar’ App - again you will need the Code number 468-781-395 to get access and you need to Register. It sounds difficult but in fact it is dead easy - I even managed it eventually !!
The Webinar is called ‘F.A.C.E (Forex Analytix Community Experience)’ - this might help you find it.
Needless to say if anything changes I will put a message out on the Tweets and I will update the ‘Latest News’ Box on the Homepage.
London Investor Shows etc.
First off I am booked to attend the Shares Magazine ‘Innovation and Growth Forum’ which takes place during the Day on Tuesday 30th January at the Business Design Centre in Islington. I have been to these a few times and they are very good and Free to attend which is always a bonus !! They tend to have quite a few Companies doing presentations and they also have Stands all around the Conference Room area - I am hoping to speak to a few of the more interesting Businesses which are due to be there. In addition I expect to meet up with several people I know there so it should be a bit of a giggle and a nice day out (I suspect we will go for a Pizza in the place next door afterwards). If you fancy coming along and bumping into me then you can see more information and Register here:
Most years I go to one or other of the ‘Big’ London Shows like ‘The UK Investor Show’ which tends to take place near the Houses of Parliament and ‘Master Investor’ which is at the Business Design Centre in Islington again. I am thinking that this year I will go to Master Investor and that is due to take place on Saturday 17th March - you can see more details and register here:
The UK Investor Show is taking place on Saturday 21st April 2018 and I note this is quite some time after Master Investor (usually they are pretty much on consecutive weekends), so perhaps I will go to both of them. We shall see, I have not made my mind up yet.
The Big Event this year will be the one that David Stredder (@carmensfella on Twitter) is organising which I think is scheduled for May and will run over 3 Days in a Hotel in Derby. I understand it will cost something like £70 but I might have that wrong although there will be a discount for ShareSoc Members. The logistics are a bit of a pain for me but my current thinking is that I will be there for 1 of the 3 Days - I need to sort it out and once I know what I am doing I will make sure I tweet it out and also put it on the ‘Latest News’ bit on the Homepage. David has not done one of these for a couple of Years and the feedback I heard about his last one was excellent - so it sounds like something not to be missed.
Wheelie’s Summer Bash
This turned out to be a really enjoyable get together and everyone who attended seemed to find it useful and worth making the trip to Windsor. I appreciate people taking the effort to come to my Neck of the Woods and I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those that attended for making it such a great day.
As always things are a bit fluid but my current thinking is that I would like to arrange a similar thing this Summer and it will most likely follow the same format and probably use the same Pub because the Landlord there is a good guy and the food is decent and if we get the weather it has a huge Garden for us to exploit. As always it will be open to everybody and Free to join us and I will put out details nearer the time - watch this space !!
AIM Prospector Magazine
My mate David O’hara has produced his latest Magazine and if you go to my Homepage and look under the ‘Latest News’ bit you can see a link to where you can buy a PDF copy of this mag and I have put some details on there regarding the Companies he covers in this issue. It is a good read and well worth the £1.99 he charges to see it.
Twitter and the Twitterati
I might have hinted at this earlier but I just want to reiterate and make a specific point here about all the wonderful contributions and teamwork that I see every day on the Tweets. I get loads of people commenting to me about how much they enjoy the positive and collegiate atmosphere we have on Twitter and it is clearly something which is much valued. I just want to highlight this both for Readers who perhaps don’t use Twitter or look at the Tweets that go out (there is a Tweet Line on the bottom of my Homepage that you can see without needing to sign up to Twitter and if you Google ‘Tweets by @WheelieDealer’ then you can see a Timeline of my Tweets and of course you can do similar for superb Investors like Aston Girl, Conkers3, Marben100 etc.) but also I just think that anyone who regularly gets involved in the To and Fro of the Tweets should pat themselves on the back and be proud of how they are helping to build such a useful and clearly highly prized Community of Quality Investors/Traders.
The WheelieBlog Slate
I am always telling people about how worried I am that I will get chronic ‘Writer’s Block’ and be forced to stop producing my Blogs because I have no idea what to write about. Fortunately despite my constant worries and the fact that I have perhaps already produced around 300 Blogs since starting the Website (what’s the latest number Steve?), I seem to have an ever growing list of Blog Ideas that I would like to write at some point in time. I am very pleased about this as I want my Website to always have new Information going out on it and Readers should be able to check in every few Days and find that there is something new which is worth reading and any Trading activities etc. that I have been doing are recorded to provide full visibility of what I am up to.
Anyway, as a teaser, I intend to produce Blogs on things like these in coming Months:
And of course if anyone fancies writing a ‘Guest Blog’ or two then feel free to give me a shout - I know there are a few of these in the process of being written and if you have anything to get off your chest and/or you fancy writing about your favourite Stock or something then please get in touch.
I am very aware that loads of new Followers have found me on Twitter recently (believe it or not as many as 140 joined just this week alone - that is the biggest amount in a week for ages - lord only knows where you all come from but it is great to have you on board !!) and it is pretty likely that you will be totally unaware of the huge Archive of Blogs which has now built up over the last 3 years. If you look on my Blog Page you can use the ‘Categories’ to look at various groupings of Blog types and if you go to the ‘Beginners / Useful Links’ Page then you can find at the bottom a full list of every Blog I have written - it is an impressive and lengthy list now.
I really didn’t expect this Blog would be quite this long or take so long to type out. I have been hard at this since Eastenders finished (can you believe that Bald Git Max frolicking on the carpet with Stacey again?) and my fingers are actually hurting with all the Repetitive Strain Injury induced by it !! (Max is probably saying the same !!)
Anyway, let’s get it done. I would like to say a huge THANK YOU to all Readers of the nonsense I put out both on the Website and on all the Tweets I flood cyberspace with. I would also like to THANK all the Book Buyers who have helped to keep my Beer Fund nice and liquid (top punning or what?) and I would like to THANK anyone and anything I haven’t said Thanks to.
Bottom line is, Thanks for all your Support people and I hope you all have a stress-free and relaxing and highly fun and enjoyable Christmas Season and New Year Festivities and I look forward to more banter in 2018 !!
Welcome to my Educational Blog Page - I have another 'Stocks & Markets' Blog Page which you can access via a Button on the top of the Homepage.
Please see the Full Range of Book Ideas in Wheelie's Bookshop.