OK, where did that year go? I vividly remember typing last year’s Xmas Message and it really seems not so far back…..
2015 been a big year for me - it is the first Full Calendar Year of doing WheelieDealer and I gotta say I am very pleased with how things have gone. I feel like the Website is in a sort of acceptable format (although hugely old-fashioned and not too easy to navigate, I will freely admit !!) and the Content is of a pretty decent standard on it and the bits I regularly update are easy enough for me to manage. I now have over 1400 Followers on Twitter and regularly get over 1000 people visiting the Website every week which is quite a large number when I think about it (imagine the Bus Queue with 1000 humans in it…..SGC, FGP and NEX would be fighting over that particular Route.)
So all in all I am very pleased with how WD has evolved this year - it seems a gazillion miles away from when my wonderful buddy @H1ERC and myself dreamt up this absurd idea whilst pigging out on Cake and Coffee at Cliveden in September 2014.
It’s also been a pretty decent year for my Returns - after a very lacklustre and under-performing 2014, it is really nice to be back on form and banging in decent Percentage Rises - the detractor as with Last Year is my Spreadbetting which is really sub-par. I will do a Blog about this in the New Year and highlight what is going wrong and how I can improve matters - which I really must do because in all honesty I am stupidly peeing money down the drain that I could easily scoop into my Money Bucket.
It may sound a bit daft, but I really am happy when I have made very strong Returns but I know I have made some dopey Errors as well - it means that I can sharpen things up and make even more - wicked.
I feel like I have refined some good Investing Behaviours like Adding to Winners, Letting Momentum Run (i.e. not selling too early), Cutting out Noise (especially Macro nonsense) and not getting too scared out of stuff. I think my skills at reading Charts have got much better and this has boosted my confidence in the difficult periods for the Markets as the overall psychology is there to see to a large extent - if you know where and how to look. This ability to read psychology of other Investors from the Charts also helps with Entries on individual Stocks - it can also simply be thought of as identifying Reversal Signals so you are riding the Waves of Price movement right from their beginnings.
On the flipside, I have been woeful at getting my Stocks down to the WD40 and I have been caught out on way too many of my Picks - I need to be more disciplined at my Stock Selection, although to be fair to myself a lot of the errors are from Stocks I have held for quite a long time (ok, maybe I need to be better at dumping the junk).
My Income Portfolio seems to be taking shape and I am happy enough with the performance - my aim is to create a sizeable Revenue Stream over time and it seems to be heading in the right direction.
High Points of the Year for me
My Low Points of 2015
What will the Market do in 2016?
Not sure this small bit will tell you Readers much - to be honest I don’t have much idea and any predictions about where the FTSE100 will be at the end of 2016 are just worthless and should be ignored (yes, even if I say them !! LOL). All I know is that the early part of the year up until March/April will probably be ok, then the Summer will be crappy and then Autumn will totally suck and then Winter might be a little bit better - does that help?
Along with a mate on Twitter, we did come up with our ever so helpful prediction that the FTSE100 will be below 7100 and above 4500. We think that will help everyone hugely !! (It will be hilarious if it ends up outside this range - maybe not so funny if it falls out of the bottom though !!).
Many ‘Experts’ are talking about Recession and Stockmarket Collapse and all that - I don’t buy it - for me, a Stockmarket Bear Market is linked intricately with a Global Recession and for all the worries there is actually no sign of such an Economic problem. With Oil on its arse giving the Major Developed Economies a huge stimulus and with Interest Rates nailed to the floor with no Inflation about, I suspect we can just plod on for a good while yet. Stockmarkets don’t look overvalued (ok, some US Tech Stocks looks a bit silly) and with Bonds and Cash giving no decent Returns, Stocks are still the only game in town.
The Big Issue for me is the European Union (EU) In or Out Vote which is likely to take place on the 3rd Thursday of June 2016. Cameron and Ozzy are keen to get the Referendum in as early as they can because the fear is that more Refugees from Syria etc. will be flocking into Europe later in the year and increasing anti-EU sentiment. My expectations are that we will see a bit of a Selloff in early January as the Year End Santa Rally subsides and maybe we can get along ok for most of February and March but maybe the Selloff in advance of the EU Vote will start in April - I will be keeping a close watch on this and expect to be selling down some holdings and Hedging via Spreadbet FTSE100 Shorts. This Vote is the big risk of 2016 in my view.
Markets tend to hate Uncertainty. My thinking is that the Markets will Selloff before the Vote but once we have a result (whether that is ‘Stay in’ or hopefully ‘Get out‘), the Certainty should cause a Rally. It is possible that the Markets will dislike an Out Vote but because it will take years and years and years (and probably more years) to do the Political Nag Trading, Legal Niceties and Administration, the World will not end the day after and business will carry on like before for a long, long, time.
On my Portfolio I feel I have a lot of ‘hidden value’, where I am in good Stocks which I expect to wake up and deliver me with good gains sooner or later. KCOM is a great lesson in patience and expectations - I really had this down as a plodder that would give me a steady 6% Income a year from the Divvy and I thought maybe the Total Yearly Return would be perhaps 10% ish (with a little bit of Capital Appreciation chucked on top of the Divvy). What a shock when they announced the Network Leasing Deal and the Shares just went Vertical - right on time to give a nice boost for my End of Year Results.
My Plan is to do a Full Blog or 2 early in 2016 on all my Current Holdings giving in short sentences my view on each of them - I will be totally factual and where they are poor I will say so. However, the ones I see as standouts for Next Year are: ESP, AVAP, CIC, TCM, UTW, AA. ARM, AV., ETO, GFRD, IOM, MOSB, TRI, QP., VLK (this last one is very high risk, but the rewards should be good).
Where is WheelieDealer heading in 2016? (calm down, I'm not going anywhere)
Right, that’s enough, I am sure we all have Turkey and Pud which needs troffing. So, all that is left is to say THANK YOU to everyone for supporting the WD Experience and your encouragement and inputs. A big SHOUT OUT to the people who regularly comment on my Blogs and help to enhance the written material for all Readers.
Twitter is a huge part of what I get up to these days (probably way too much to be honest !!) and a big THANK YOU to all my Twitter Followers and Interactors - it is a huge help to everyone involved.
THANK YOU for buying so many Books from Wheelie’s Bookshop - I get a small bit of Cash from each Book bought and that has kept me at a very high standard of alcohol this year - it is much appreciated. Hic.
And of course, THANK YOU LOTS to all of you reading this shite…..
Now go and get stuffed,
Happy Xmas and NY, WD.
Related blogs you may want to suffer whilst everyone else in the House is watching ‘The Sound of Music’ or ‘The Italian Job’:
This 2 Parter covers the Scary experiences of Black China Monday:
This one covers my Trading Rules Document which I religiously amend at the start of each year. You can ‘Cut & Paste’ or whatever to create something suitable for your needs - it’s a good time to be thinking about this now:
Last year’s Christmas Message can be read here (you‘re only a year behind !!):
Welcome to my Educational Blog Page - I have another 'Stocks & Markets' Blog Page which you can access via a Button on the top of the Homepage.
Please see the Full Range of Book Ideas in Wheelie's Bookshop.