This coming week (w/c 30th May 2016) tends to be up on average for 47% of Years and the Average Return is Up 0.3% - so history suggests nothing special.
Friday 3rd June 2016 has the US Non-Farm Payrolls Jobs Numbers - this might cause some excitement to end the week on.
I still have my chunky FTSE100 Short positions in place and they are a pain - however, with the Brexit Vote very soon I see no point in closing them as you can be pretty damn sure that as soon as I close them the Markets will tank !! Anyway, I have written a Draft Blog about ’Scenario Planning’ for my Shorts which looks at what action I should take depending on how the Market behaves in the run up to the Vote. I should issue this as a proper WheelieBlog in the next couple of days.
First off we have the Daily Candlesticks for the FTSE100 in a ScreenShot from ShareScope looking back about 9 months. First off note how the Blue Parallel Downtrend Channel Lines which were a feature here for several weeks were broken out of in the last couple of weeks - this is obviously a bullish development.
Next look at the Sideways Range which I had on the chart for several weeks marked by the Parallel Green Horizontal Lines between about 6036 and 6237, and note how the FTSE100 Price broke out of this Range to the upside in recent days - another bullish occurrence.
Note also the Horizontal Resistance up above - 6320 and 6427 will be tough levels to get through and 6487 and 6500 will probably be very difficult to get over. Throw in the Brexit Vote as well and it is gonna be a big challenge for the FTSE100 but things look quite bullish.
My Big Black Arrow is pointing out where the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages did a ‘Golden Cross’ a couple of weeks back - this is obviously Bullish and at this point in time looks to be playing out as the Golden Cross predicts.
I thought it would be useful to look at the ‘Big Picture’, so I have put in the Daily Candles for the S&P500 going back about 6 years - i.e. it is the Bull Market since the 2009 Lows.
This is a really interesting Chart because it looks like the ‘Bear Market’ that was all the rage at the start of 2016 really was just a blip in the Long Term Uptrend (by the standard definition we never really had a Bear Market back then, although such distinctions aren‘t all that helpful as I have discussed before). Having said that, we are getting near a pretty key area now - if the S&P500 can break over its All Time High (ATH) at 2135 then I think we can safely say the Bull Market is in full swing. However, if we cannot take out this ATH, then it is possible that the S&P500 could fall away again. This is something to watch in coming Weeks.
The chart below has the Daily Candles for Brent Crude Oil going back about 9 months. Not a lot has changed since last week really - we are still nicely within my Parallel Blue Lines Uptrend Channel and we are still trying to get over $50 convincingly. If you look closely you may see that the Price got over $50 Intraday back on Thursday 26th May but fell back at the Close. The way things look at the moment it strikes me that it is just a matter of time before the $50 level is cracked - however, once we are through this, there is a lot of Resistance up above and $54 will be a really tough level to get over.
The Chart below has the Gold Daily Candles going back 4 months ish. My Blue Arrow is pointing to a Red Down Candle that was generated on Friday - this looks bearish but note there is a lot of strong Support just below at $1207 and $1200 in particular. If these fail, then $1190 and $1180 look like they might catch any falls.
If we do get a bounce, note that my Red Line which is marked with the Red Arrow may become Resistance (classic Charting Theory that former Support becomes Resistance once broken).
Right, that’s it for this week, I hope you all have a successful and enjoyable week,