2015 been a big year for me - it is the first Full Calendar Year of doing WheelieDealer and I gotta say I am very pleased with how things have gone. I feel like the Website is in a sort of acceptable format (although hugely old-fashioned and not too easy to navigate, I will freely admit !!) and the Content is of a pretty decent standard on it and the bits I regularly update are easy enough for me to manage. I now have over 1400 Followers on Twitter and regularly get over 1000 people visiting the Website every week which is quite a large number when I think about it (imagine the Bus Queue with 1000 humans in it…..SGC, FGP and NEX would be fighting over that particular Route.)
It’s also been a pretty decent year for my Returns - after a very lacklustre and under-performing 2014, it is really nice to be back on form and banging in decent Percentage Rises - the detractor as with Last Year is my Spreadbetting which is really sub-par. I will do a Blog about this in the New Year and highlight what is going wrong and how I can improve matters - which I really must do because in all honesty I am stupidly peeing money down the drain that I could easily scoop into my Money Bucket.
It may sound a bit daft, but I really am happy when I have made very strong Returns but I know I have made some dopey Errors as well - it means that I can sharpen things up and make even more - wicked.
I feel like I have refined some good Investing Behaviours like Adding to Winners, Letting Momentum Run (i.e. not selling too early), Cutting out Noise (especially Macro nonsense) and not getting too scared out of stuff. I think my skills at reading Charts have got much better and this has boosted my confidence in the difficult periods for the Markets as the overall psychology is there to see to a large extent - if you know where and how to look. This ability to read psychology of other Investors from the Charts also helps with Entries on individual Stocks - it can also simply be thought of as identifying Reversal Signals so you are riding the Waves of Price movement right from their beginnings.
On the flipside, I have been woeful at getting my Stocks down to the WD40 and I have been caught out on way too many of my Picks - I need to be more disciplined at my Stock Selection, although to be fair to myself a lot of the errors are from Stocks I have held for quite a long time (ok, maybe I need to be better at dumping the junk).
My Income Portfolio seems to be taking shape and I am happy enough with the performance - my aim is to create a sizeable Revenue Stream over time and it seems to be heading in the right direction.
High Points of the Year for me
- Meeting up with about 15 fellow Investors at the Shares Magazine event in Islington - many of these were completely unexpected and it really made me realise just how much ‘reach’ WheelieDealer was getting. I was particularly pleased to see how many People that I would class as extremely successful and experienced Investors were regularly reading my material and finding it helpful - that surprised me to be honest - in a large way I set WD up to be helpful to inexperienced Investors, but I am well chuffed that it seems to have broad appeal. It was a shame I didn’t get to speak individually to everyone for as long as I would like but it was pretty inspiring to see such a group of great people all getting along and taking over the Canteen at the Business Design Centre !!
- Over the year a truly top quality group of Tweet Peeps has formed up as a bit of a gang and we now regularly trade ideas, insults, news items, broker info, jokes, cat pictures, emoticons, trading ideas, worries, performance metrics, WheelieBin Stocks, etc. This has been really helpful for me and I am sure all of the participants feel the same. In addition, I have no doubt that the Twitterworld looking in on our discussions find a lot of value in the banter. A lot of peeps can pat themselves on the back here……..
- A huge special THANK YOU to Justin Waite from Sharepickers.com for inviting me onto his show to do the Podcasts and an additional THANK YOU to R.A. (@2_N_V on Tweets) for mercilessly pushing me into doing the Podcasts - I had considered doing something along these lines a few years down the track and had no idea of the format, fortunately Justin’s questions and structure really help me and the feedback on the Podcasts has been really gratifying and motivating me to do more of them.
- On the Investing front, I have had quite a few Takeovers - something I love because they are sort of a clear confirmation that I am selecting decent undervalued Stocks and also because they often result in pretty fast big gains. Sadly INFI and ALK were both taken out at below the Price I paid which was really annoying - it means I had chosen good Companies but had got the Valuations wrong (although to be fair to me, they were stolen in both cases and I was relieved in the case of INFI to have what I considered to be a ‘problem‘ Stock removed from my Kennels). On the other hand, QED was lovely because it was a very fast 40% gain and I was especially pleased with the AGA takeover because every man and his hound had told me they had a Pension Deficit and should be avoided (regular Readers will know I am very sceptical about Pension Deficits because the Number Sensitivity is extreme in the Spreadsheets which are used to calculate them). Sometimes it is very satisfying to go against the Crowd and get it right - sadly most times it just means I am wrong and lose money LOL. I think BRIT insurance went this year also - might have been 2014 though.
- I have had some really excellent Winners that I have managed to add to on the way up and they have really been the key to my Strong Returns overall I think. You just need a few strong Winners and the rest can sort of muddle along with various performances but you will do very well on the Year - especially if you stick to Quality Stocks where the Dividends give a little boost as well. My Standout Winners have been SGP, TTR, TSTL, IOM, PAYS, EMR, FIF, CAMB, PETS, SPRP, SFE, KCOM (that last one is a huge surprise - but sometimes Lady Luck does play a role).
- Annual Returns for 2015 look really superb - these will be fully explored in a ‘Scores on the Doors 2015’ Blog early in the New Year.
My Low Points of 2015
- This list can only start with one event - 'Black China Monday', August 24th 2015. Oh my goodness, what a shocking day. As per the blog I wrote shortly afterwards, this is definitely the most scary day I have ever felt and suffered in the Markets - and that’s after about 15 years of serious investing. It was just plain nasty and it is amazing how the Market moves and terror on Twitter can affect my thinking - I am sure I thought that the FTSE100 was going to Zero at one point !! It was an important lesson in Leverage for me and I must be careful with my Spreadbets to make sure I am always safely in control and not letting Exposure run away with me. As it turns out, this was a very profitable day for me because I banked a huge FTSE100 Spreadbet Short Profit - every cloud and all that…….
- Black Swans - ok, the usual definition would be a Huge Unexpected Macro event which causes Markets to tank totally out of the blue. However, in the absence of such totally unwelcome occurrences, I class these things as events that hit individual Stocks I hold and can cause huge damage in a very short time. I just really feel like I have had more than my fair share of these this year - it must be the type of Stocks I buy - maybe that is the drawback of tending to favour Stocks which are on P/E ratios under 10 - they are cheap for a reason (rightly or wrongly and in most cases wrongly I find) and this means that they are prone to sudden panics as already jittery holders hear something which is at worst short term or more likely just irrelevant (Red Herrings anyone?) I suffered such Swan Attacks on stocks like OPAY (now PAYS), UTW, TCM, ETO, SGP (just today whilst doing my first draft of this blog ready for Xmas release - you didn’t think I was up on Xmas Eve Night typing this did you?) and it felt like there were many others. I don’t mind when it is something genuine like a Profit Warning but often these things are driven by Short Sellers in a concerted Bear Raid and this is just irritating.
- As briefly mentioned above, my Spreadbet Portfolio has really not performed as it should - in theory it is supposed to ‘mirror’ my Trading ISA (which has done really very well) but it seems to be tracking something totally different (which has done nowhere near as well !!) - I understand why this is I think and I will explain fully in a future Blog.
- I have made very little progress on getting down to the WD40 - it is probably a total lack of discipline but I just feel that it is so important to let my Winners run that I don’t want to sell them. On the other hand, my ‘losers’ just look undervalued so I don’t want to dump them either !! This means that Takeovers are a real boon because they make a tough decision for me. I am very aware of this problem and as a bare minimum I am now doing a ‘One in, One out’ policy, as I did this morning by dumping CLL so that I could buy QP.
- Loads of my Stocks just seem to have not really given up their Value this year - ok, as a Long Term Investor I must not get too disgruntled by this but I just feel that so many are crazily undervalued - the Market will eventually wake up I suspect. As Buffett says “In the Short Term the Market is a Voting Machine - in the Long Term it is a Weighing Machine” - there is immense truth here. Such Stocks as AA., UTW, ETO, AVAP, CIC etc. just seem daft cheap.
- Since doing WheelieDealer I find I spend more time writing and not so much time reading - this is a shame and I must find time to read more again. I have several books lined up like Daniel Kahnemann’s ‘Thinking Fast & Slow’ and Guy Martin’s Autobiography (this one is nothing to do with Stocks !!) which really deserve my attention. Sadly there are just nowhere near enough hours in a WheelieDay (it might be because I never get up before 11am).
What will the Market do in 2016?
Not sure this small bit will tell you Readers much - to be honest I don’t have much idea and any predictions about where the FTSE100 will be at the end of 2016 are just worthless and should be ignored (yes, even if I say them !! LOL). All I know is that the early part of the year up until March/April will probably be ok, then the Summer will be crappy and then Autumn will totally suck and then Winter might be a little bit better - does that help?
Along with a mate on Twitter, we did come up with our ever so helpful prediction that the FTSE100 will be below 7100 and above 4500. We think that will help everyone hugely !! (It will be hilarious if it ends up outside this range - maybe not so funny if it falls out of the bottom though !!).
Many ‘Experts’ are talking about Recession and Stockmarket Collapse and all that - I don’t buy it - for me, a Stockmarket Bear Market is linked intricately with a Global Recession and for all the worries there is actually no sign of such an Economic problem. With Oil on its arse giving the Major Developed Economies a huge stimulus and with Interest Rates nailed to the floor with no Inflation about, I suspect we can just plod on for a good while yet. Stockmarkets don’t look overvalued (ok, some US Tech Stocks looks a bit silly) and with Bonds and Cash giving no decent Returns, Stocks are still the only game in town.
The Big Issue for me is the European Union (EU) In or Out Vote which is likely to take place on the 3rd Thursday of June 2016. Cameron and Ozzy are keen to get the Referendum in as early as they can because the fear is that more Refugees from Syria etc. will be flocking into Europe later in the year and increasing anti-EU sentiment. My expectations are that we will see a bit of a Selloff in early January as the Year End Santa Rally subsides and maybe we can get along ok for most of February and March but maybe the Selloff in advance of the EU Vote will start in April - I will be keeping a close watch on this and expect to be selling down some holdings and Hedging via Spreadbet FTSE100 Shorts. This Vote is the big risk of 2016 in my view.
Markets tend to hate Uncertainty. My thinking is that the Markets will Selloff before the Vote but once we have a result (whether that is ‘Stay in’ or hopefully ‘Get out‘), the Certainty should cause a Rally. It is possible that the Markets will dislike an Out Vote but because it will take years and years and years (and probably more years) to do the Political Nag Trading, Legal Niceties and Administration, the World will not end the day after and business will carry on like before for a long, long, time.
On my Portfolio I feel I have a lot of ‘hidden value’, where I am in good Stocks which I expect to wake up and deliver me with good gains sooner or later. KCOM is a great lesson in patience and expectations - I really had this down as a plodder that would give me a steady 6% Income a year from the Divvy and I thought maybe the Total Yearly Return would be perhaps 10% ish (with a little bit of Capital Appreciation chucked on top of the Divvy). What a shock when they announced the Network Leasing Deal and the Shares just went Vertical - right on time to give a nice boost for my End of Year Results.
My Plan is to do a Full Blog or 2 early in 2016 on all my Current Holdings giving in short sentences my view on each of them - I will be totally factual and where they are poor I will say so. However, the ones I see as standouts for Next Year are: ESP, AVAP, CIC, TCM, UTW, AA. ARM, AV., ETO, GFRD, IOM, MOSB, TRI, QP., VLK (this last one is very high risk, but the rewards should be good).
Where is WheelieDealer heading in 2016? (calm down, I'm not going anywhere)
- Expect plenty more blogs in 2016 - Steve Holdsworth (@sholdsworth1963 on the tweets) told me earlier this week that I had issued 96 Blogs during 2015 - so that is roughly 2 per week and a bit surprising. Obviously they take time to write and I can see a point where I do less of the ‘educational’ type of blogs (partly because I will run out of ideas as they will have largely all been written) and there will be more focus on the ‘Investing explanations’ type of Blogs. I can foresee them going down to 1 per week but at the moment I seem to be able to keep regularly pumping them out and I have lots of ideas of new Blogs to write. Maybe the pattern will become more like 2 a week in Winter and just 1 each week in Summer - but all my Trades and any similar Information will be regularly updated and I expect to do regular Podcasts - I actually quite enjoy doing them and they are pretty easy for me because Justin does all the hard work !! (thanks again, mate). I recommend that Readers look through the ‘Blog Index List’ on the ‘Beginners / Useful Links’ Page and dig through the Archive because there is a huge amount of knowledge buried away in there.
- Over the next few weeks I will do a ‘Scores on the Doors 2015’ Blog which will fully show and explain my Returns for this year and I expect to do a Blog about what I can improve on for 2016. I am also thinking about a few Blogs which give very quick thoughts on each of my Current Holdings and what I expect from them at the time of writing - I think Readers would like this. There should be a blog specifically about ‘Hedging’ - I started writing this in draft form recently but to be honest it is a right bloody mess - needs a lot of work. This may come in handy in the Spring if we look like getting a Selloff. I also have a couple in Draft form covering subjects like why I enjoy Investing and a fishy one about ‘Red Herrings’…….
- I realise the Website is a bit crap and could do with some work to make it more User Friendly and it could do with a Search Facility. I intend to do these in time but at the moment my focus is on doing Blogs and stuff - please bear with me for a while (it might be a long while !!).
- Linked to the above, it was always my intention to have some Advertising on the Website but I have always been firm on my view that I don’t want loads of trashy stuff detracting from the Content. This is still my view and to be honest I am not too bothered about Ads - for the time it takes to set these things up and the small amount of Revenue I would personally gain from it, I am not sure I can be really bothered. I have a dream that one day I will have so many Millions of Readers (now you are really kin joking Mr WheelieNuts) that I will be able to negotiate stunning discount deals for Readers on things like ShareScope, Investors Chronicle and Stocko and stuff - we are some way off this I suspect !! The bottom line is that my Income is as a result of my Investing Activities - I don’t want to be wasting my valuable time on things that do not support this necessary focus, and I am sure Readers will understand and support this view.
- I fully intend to be at the Master Investor Show which is probably in April or something - it would be great if plenty of people turn up and I can meet them - I will put up details about this soon.
- WheelieDealer will always be FREE to read.
Right, that’s enough, I am sure we all have Turkey and Pud which needs troffing. So, all that is left is to say THANK YOU to everyone for supporting the WD Experience and your encouragement and inputs. A big SHOUT OUT to the people who regularly comment on my Blogs and help to enhance the written material for all Readers.
Twitter is a huge part of what I get up to these days (probably way too much to be honest !!) and a big THANK YOU to all my Twitter Followers and Interactors - it is a huge help to everyone involved.
THANK YOU for buying so many Books from Wheelie’s Bookshop - I get a small bit of Cash from each Book bought and that has kept me at a very high standard of alcohol this year - it is much appreciated. Hic.
And of course, THANK YOU LOTS to all of you reading this shite…..
Now go and get stuffed,
Happy Xmas and NY, WD.
Related blogs you may want to suffer whilst everyone else in the House is watching ‘The Sound of Music’ or ‘The Italian Job’:
This 2 Parter covers the Scary experiences of Black China Monday:
This one covers my Trading Rules Document which I religiously amend at the start of each year. You can ‘Cut & Paste’ or whatever to create something suitable for your needs - it’s a good time to be thinking about this now:
Last year’s Christmas Message can be read here (you‘re only a year behind !!):